It’s turning into an extremely good week for Osborne
David Blackburn 4:52pm
The gods are smiling on George Osborne. On Monday, he wrote an excellent article in the FT, explaining why he opposed the government’s fiscal plans and giving a brief sketch of his alternative vision. It was a short, sharp, shock article that contrasted with the tentative and nebulous announcements that characterised the Tory post-New Year slump.
They were immediate benefits. On Tuesday, the EU Commission broadly supported the Conservative position on reducing public spending, and today a City AM poll indicated that 77 percent of a panel of City experts think that cuts must be made this year. Indeed, many panellists rejected Samuel Brittan’s contention, elucidated in last week’s Spectator, that the markets expect the continuation of current strategy.
Osborne has long been mistrusted in City circles, I think, because he is competent and will end the reckless free for all that Brown propagates. Whilst this latest poll is not a personal endorsement, it emphatically endorses his policy. With Ken Clarke wooing voters and Osborne bringing the City to heel, away from Brown’s sweet nothings, the Conservatives campaign is re-invigorated. The problem now is burying Ashcroft.
UPDATE: The Tories are on the economic ball at the moment. One of the reasons is Ken Clarke, whose geniality, skills as a communicator and his candour appeal to voters; in stark contrast with Brown, who has been cursed with Bill Sykes’ shifty jowl. Clarke’s given an interview to the Standard where he states the facts plainly:
“These are artificially low interest rates. They obviously can’t stay as low as this.“Anybody buying a house now must realise the rates are unnaturally low and will go up in future years. In working out whether you can afford a house, you have to work out if you can afford a quite perceptible increase in interest rates, regardless of who the government is.”
That looks a risky statement, suggesting that rates will go up regardless of who wins, but it's good direct politics from Clarke. Anyone who has borrowed money understands interest rates. They understand the mechanics of interest rates and what affects them. Brown has kept interest rates low, but artificially, so there has to be a penalty in the long-run. Expect Clarke to continue making these points as polling day nears.
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John Francis
March 18th, 2010 5:44pm Report this commentIn your dreams.
Hysteria
March 18th, 2010 5:48pm Report this commentreckless for for all that Brown propagates
free for all???
Natasha
March 18th, 2010 5:56pm Report this commentThis article is simply ridiculous.
Anyone who has been reading the FT over the past year will know that issues concerning the timing of deficit reduction, and the possible need for a further fiscal stimulus given the dire economic conditions, are being hotly debated by economists. There is no consensus in the City in favour of sharp fiscal retrenchment in 2010, any more than there is a consensus supporting Sam Brittan's view. Polls of so-called City 'experts' (handpicked by the ever-impartial Allister Heath) who will be comfortably off regardless of the pace of public spending cuts, are totally worthless.
As for Osborne having a good week, perhaps you would care to comment on a) today's announcement of lower than expected borrowing figures, b) the statement by one leading credit agency that Britain's rating was 'secure', and c) the resulting sterling rally against both the euro and dollar.
Methinks you doth protest too much. If Osborne is so brilliant, why did Cameron have to give a more prominent role to Clarke?
emil
March 18th, 2010 6:25pm Report this commentNatasha, I think you'll find that "The lady doth protest too much, methinks." is the correct quote, and in your case, given your war and peace response, clearly bang to rights.
stephen
March 18th, 2010 6:35pm Report this commentWhere did this come from? Sounds like spin from the Boy's Bunker. Should not the CH (even though its part of the Spec) be a bit careful in printing such apparent spin without balance!
Norman Dee
March 18th, 2010 6:51pm Report this commentDoes it not occur to you "tasha" that the amount of crap thrown at Osborne could be a reflection of the fear he generates in the his opposition. As for Clarke, someone had to shadow the slime ball Fondlebum can you name anyone else better qualified to do that ?
David Blackburn
March 18th, 2010 6:54pm Report this commentNatascha,
Agreed, he did poorly from December until recently, but that's kind of my point.
Nicholas
March 18th, 2010 7:32pm Report this commentNatasha says:-
"As for Osborne having a good week, perhaps you would care to comment on a) today's announcement of lower than expected borrowing figures"
Yes indeed. Capitalist At Work says:-
"The Government borrowing for February is out today and the BBC et al have seen fit to say what a wonderful day it is as the numbers are not as bad as expected. It seems that the number is about £3-4 billion better than was expected. Don't be fooled though, Jan and Feb 2010 are the WORST EVER borrowing numbers for these months - historically they are months in surplus as tax is paid.
In fact, this is why the number has bounced, the Supertax on bankers bonus's and the late payement by private individuals struggling with the finances.
No doubt there will be crowing in the lefty media about the so called 'improvement'; which is nothing of the sort."
Wight Tory
March 18th, 2010 7:41pm Report this commentAnyone who has borrowed money understands interest rates.
That is BULL
Why? Look at the public borrowing on credit cards, and mores the point why so many opt to pay the minimum each month, clearly the majority don't....
Add to Goves excellent Education policy, mandatory lessons in domestic economics to the curriculum and it will round the policy off nicely for future generations.
Dorothy Wilson
March 18th, 2010 8:25pm Report this commentNatasha: You come over like a second year under-graduate.
AndyinBrum
March 18th, 2010 8:43pm Report this commentHmmm Richard appears to have had a sex change
strapworld
March 18th, 2010 8:46pm Report this commentNatasha, Now do calm down dear.
TEACHING MATHS
1. Teaching Maths In 1970
A logger sells a truckload of timber for £100.
His cost of production is 4/5 of the price.
What is his profit?
2. Teaching Maths In 1980
A logger sells a truckload of timber for £100.
His cost of production is 80% of the price.
What is his profit?
3. Teaching Maths In 1990
A logger sells a truckload of timber for £100.
His cost of production is £80.
How much was his profit?
4. Teaching Maths In 2000
A logger sells a truckload of timber for £100.
His cost of production is £80 and his profit is £20.
Your assignment: Underline the number 20.
5. Teaching Maths In 2005
A logger cuts down a beautiful forest because he is selfish and inconsiderate and cares nothing for the habit of animals or the preservation of our woodlands. Your assignment: Discuss how the birds and squirrels might feel as the logger cut down their homes just for a measly profit of £20.
6. Teaching Maths In 2010
A logger is arrested for trying to cut down a tree in case it may be offensive to Muslims or other religious groups not consulted in the felling licence. He is also fined a £100 as his chainsaw is in breach of Health and Safety legislation as it deemed too dangerous and could cut something He has used the chainsaw for over 20 years without incident however he does not have the correct certificate of competence and is therefore considered to be a recidivist and habitual criminal. His DNA is sampled and his details circulated throughout all government agencies. He protests and is taken to court and fined another £100 because he is such an easy target. When he is released he returns to find Gypsies have cut down half his wood to build a camp on his land. He tries to throw them off but is arrested, prosecuted for harassing an ethnic minority, imprisoned and fined a further £100.
While he is in jail the Gypsies cut down the rest of his wood and sell it on the black market for £100 cash. They also have a leaving BBQ of squirrel and pheasant and depart leaving behind several tonnes of rubbish and asbestos sheeting. The forester on release is warned that failure to clear the fly tipped rubbish immediately at his own cost is an offence. He complains and is arrested for environmental pollution, breach of the peace and invoiced £12,000 plus VAT for safe disposal costs by a regulated government contractor.
Your assignment: How many times is the logger going to have to be arrested and fined before he realises that he is never going to make £20 profit by hard work, give up, sign onto the dole and live off the state for the rest of his life?
7. Teaching Maths In 2011
A logger doesn’t sell a truckload of timber because he can’t get a loan to buy a new truck because his bank has spent all his and their money on a derivative of securitised debt related to sub- prime mortgages in Alabama and lost the lot with only some government money left to pay a few million pound bonuses to their senior directors and the traders who made the biggest losses.
The logger struggles to pay the £1,200 road tax on his old truck: however, as it was built in the 1970s, it no longer meets the emissions regulations and he is forced to scrap it. Some Bulgarian loggers buy the truck from the scrap merchant and put it back on the road. They undercut everyone on price for haulage and send their cash back home, while claiming unemployment benefit for themselves and their relatives. If questioned they speak no English and it is easier to deport them at the governments expense. Following their holiday back home they return to the UK with different names and fresh girls and start again. The logger protests, is accused of being a bigoted racist and as his name is on the side of his old truck he is forced to pay £1,500 registration fees as a gang master.
The Government borrows more money to pay more to the bankers as bonuses are not cheap. The parliamentarians feel they are missing out and claim the difference on expenses and allowances.
You do the maths.
8. Teaching Maths 2017
أ المسجل تبيع حموله 'احنة من الخ'ب من اجل 100 دولا-. 'احب تكلفة الانتاج من الثمن. ما هو ال-بح له؟
Olaf Rye
March 18th, 2010 9:44pm Report this commentA slight rise in the Pound and suddenly Labour have led us from the wilderness of an overall 6% contract of the economy, a £1.3 trillion debt, an economy crippled by regulation and taxation ? Do not expect the Pound to rally too much--it is still only about $1.52. Moreover, our credit rating is not even remotely secure and a statement from finance house ought not to be taken with so much optimism. As for the borrowing figures, all we need to bear in mind is that we are the most indebted nation in the G8 and Labour will only offer to halve the deficit (notice: not even take on the debt, which will increase by at least £60 billion annually assuming the ridiculously optimistic growth forecast of 3.1% quoted by Darling ever occurs) in the next three or four years. The markets have voted: Britain is not an attractive place for investment and no amount of propaganda from Labour is changing the minds of investors and financiers from abroad. The control of media only works when you are dealing with voter manipulation--the markets look at the figures and have signalled that they are completely unimpressed by Labour's handling of the British economy and are staying well clear. I notice there is no mention of the fact that it costs five times as much to insurance British gilts against default as it does the German, nor that we are the only G8 nation also facing inflation because of Treasury policies to print money, and that the money printed went overwhelmingly to buy gilts. Any excuses for this dire situation, which will condemn our grandchildren to pay a debt off to keep bureaucrats employed, is frankly obscene.
2trueblue
March 19th, 2010 12:42am Report this commentThe BBC have been rather busy firefighting on Liebores behalf so can't get it right all the time. Also the media are not convinced that Liebore can do it now so are hedging their bets. The £ could be rising for the same reason, the markets see a possibility of a stronger Tory win.
Andrew S
March 19th, 2010 4:25am Report this commentStrapworld - priceless, more please
Alfred T Mahan
March 19th, 2010 8:42am Report this commentGreat, Strapworld - love it.
Natasha, do you really believe that the opinions of people who've made a success of their lives are worthless? Compared to the alternative - those who haven't - I know whose I'd listen to.
oldtimer
March 19th, 2010 9:31am Report this commentStrapworld - that is a brilliant post.
Re Clarke and interest rates. I am not clear why you think his statement about future interest rates is "risky". Anyone buying a house has to take a long view - 20 years or more. Please name a mortgage supplier who offers low long term interest rates.
Noa Zrk
March 20th, 2010 12:15am Report this commentStrapworld
Superb!
The recreational pharmaceuticals, horlicks and 9pm bedtime are obviously working wonders.
We may not be able to dodge 'Handy Andy' Burnham's incontinence death tax forever but we can ensure that in true Labour fashion, there's nothing left when the tax man calls.
The poisoned bedpan, the 2010 equivalent of the City's poisoned pill.
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