YouGov has Tory lead down to two points

MCMC

Oh god...
This is partially the consequence of Cameron's craven inability to put forward sound right-wing policies.
However, I also worry that it's the consequence of Labour's success in creating sufficient client groups to keep itself in power. We have about 5.5m direct public sector jobs and at least the same number living long term on benefits. Add in those employed by quangos etc and, with the reasonable assumption that turkeys won't vote for Christmas, you have enough votes to keep Labour in power.
Cameron may as well grow a pair.... and hope the benefits scroungers can't be bothered to get off the sofa come polling day.

2trueblue

A day would seem to be a long time in politics right now. Just wait until the electorate realise that Liebore is growing our debt and using its usual chicanery, smoke and mirrors and different words.
We now know that the polls are unreliable and therefore irrelevant. Like the budget the devil is in the detail, and by now boring.

David Lindsay

A comfortable victory with which to do what? Their only response to the Budget has been "But we thought of that first".

Richard Smith

Shocking stuff, the Tories should be sailing it right now.

We need a real Tory in charge.

Wilber Wilberforce

I am a lifelong Conservative, and also am signed up to participate in You Gov polling, however over the last month or so, any poll that You Gov has sent me, has only been asking me my shopping / brand habits and are nothing to do with politics at all.

This is a change from 6 months ago when at least once a week I was sent a poll asking who I would vote for as PM / who was the best party to manage economy etc. so of course You Gov have me on record as a Conservative voter

It's interesting to note that over the last few weeks, as the You Gov polls have shown an increasing Tory dip that as a Conservative I am no longer required to give my opinion on electoral matters.

I can't believe this is a one off.

A tide of filth hangs over us.

Richard

Oh dear not a good time for the Tory's
There will be lots of leaking Calvin Klien's and Janet Reager underwear this morning.
Oneday the Tory leadership will wake up and realise that they have been living in a fog filled room for the last 6 months.
Open the doors and windows, let some fresh air in, and realise that Joe public do not like them. Nasty, rotten, corrupt and self serving bunch of losers.
Shameron will rue the days he hid in his bunker over Ashcroft. He should have sacked Hague and withdrawn the whip from Butterfill. not to have done so lost him all that momentum gained from being tough on expenses troughers.
Something must be really wrong with the leadership team to be doing this badly at this time.
It is now at the point where tory voters are saying to themselves "Am I missing something - could I actually be wrong?"
Ex Labour voters are seeing the shameful behaviour and crowing of the Tories and they are saying in their droves...."I may be disgruntled but hey there is no way I can vote for this mob of fox hunting toffs"
Poor Tories - what can they do?
The nice cute Cameron didn't work. The rabid despot Cameron didn't work. Now the stand-up comedian Cameron isn't exactly going down a storm either.
Perhaps...just maybe, they should try putting some figures out to the public...nothing scares the voters more than the prospect of being asked to vote for a Tory toff without knowing the figures first.
I said on another post...as each day goes by the Labour machine lays another binding on the Tory message. As each day goes by the Tories fail to deal with it. Now they are just over burdened with them, they have been boxed into the party of the few v's Labour the party of the many.
Simple story is the Tories want the wrong section of the public to pay the highest price for the bankers bad night at the casino.
Whats that???...awh a lovely smell of Belize coffee......wow!!!!!
Back later no doubt.

Inside Man

I'm absolutely despair... who that can vote hates this country that much that they would actually vote for the most venal, mendacious, corrupt, sleazy and downright dishonest government ever to sit in parliament.

Brown looked yesterday like he is was off his meds, Darling was a sanctimonius simpleton who thinks that not quite having helped bankrupt the UK as much as it first appeared is a commendation.

I still think the Tories will pull it off but I have to wonder...

Btw for the record Richard you are a pillock.

Ian Walker

Question: a researcher comes up to you in the street and announces that they're performing a survey for YouGov on behalf of the Sun. Do you answer:

a) Labour, because you are dependent on a broken benefits system
b) Labour, because you are receiving even more money that the benefits scrounger by working in a non-job for a quango
c) Labour, because you are going to vote Tory, but you hate Murdoch so you want to make mischief
d) Lib Dem, because you are going to vote Tory, but your sandal-wearing tree-hugging girlfriend is with you
e) Tory

Richard

@Insideman,
Don't despair. It's not your fault you over borrowed in the good times....you were only buying into the Tory dream.
Sadly your debts may be your downfall but hey there is the welfare state £64 per week is not much but you can live on it if you learn to be a little less picky.
Too educated to be a socialist but too thick to be a real fat cat hey....well don't worry you are not alone, many like you on this board.

strapworld

2trueblue...the debt has been with us for months..the people are 'not bovvered'
They have been brainwashed into believing that debt is good, saving is bad.So everyone bar a very few are in hock!

Then you do have to consider Cameron. I do hope you saw him on ITV News last evening. Unable to answer the question of just what cuts he would be making! Now the easy answer would have been to follow the Boris example and promise a root and branch audit of all the government books and TO PUBLISH the findings. Only then could an honest answer to cuts be made.

But, no, Cameron dug himself deeper and deeper. He looked and sounded shifty.

I know I do not like the man. I wanted to. But he is no leader, he is an empty vessel and whilst he has the likes of Maude around him he is condoning the worst kind of expenses cheats.

Sorry people are not going to vote for tory or labour in the numbers they once did. Any victory will be a shallow one.

Andy in France

It's only YouGov! From what I've read elsewhere the weighting of their polls is highly suspect. There is no doubt the polls have tightened in the last couple of months and I do think the British as a nation are stupid enough to elect these corrupt, incompetent, destroyers of wealth one more time. The poor old English just lie on their backs and let it happen. Sad to see, but at least I'm watching from another country.

TomTom

You will be surprised at the polls. There is a sense that the established parties are corrupt and deceiving the public - they have agreed policies among themselves and will not discuss them at the election.....the public senses a great fraud, bigger than the Referendum Lie of 2005

paul fitzgerald

funny last week i signed up for yougov and cant caste my vote in any of the polls you have to be asked to vote so i think its a fix.yougov poll only asks those that tick their boxes.

THX1138

Oh dear, the punters aren't following the script are they! I hope Sam hasn't ordered the stationery from herself yet!

Inside Man to say that anyone who votes Labour actually hates Britain is a ridiculous and hatful thing to say. Shame on you!

Nicholas

Fishy and stinks. This poll comes out immediately after a budget that Brown and Darling are so pleased with themselves about?

YouGov are manipulating something.

bernerlap

@ inside man. I know exactly how you feel. However, the price of petrol is still about £1.20 a litre and will rise further with the £ tanking after the budget, and there is a very nasty smell emerging from the Labour Party in Glasgow which is drifting towards Number 10. See http://www.torybear.com/2010/03/what-did-gordon-know-and-when.html
Sooner or later the English press's digging will be published and Gordon will be so covered in ordure that only the shallow end of the gene pool in Scotland and the North East will vote for him.
And Richard we're not interested in the views of inbred Labour trolls.

Fergus Pickering

I remember when Labour were getting thumpe by Maggie, I remember Benn et al saying it was all because Labour wasn't left enough. And now Cameron's problem is because he isn't right enough. Cameron's problem is that mortgages are cheap and people are not losing their jobs... yet. There is nothing he can do about this. But polls are volatile.Major was losing to Kinnocj by a street and then suddenly.... he wasn't. I can't believe that people will really put a cross against Brown in large enough numbers to.. Or there again, perhaps they will. This is democracy. People get what they want. And then they have to live with it. One thjing I would do is go out and bang the drum for cutting immigration. Outside Central London this is a vote winner. Won't win many muslim votes, but then they're gone already.

AndyinBrum

Considering all but the Mirror & Gruniad are scathing of the budget I think the MSM are all favouring the Tories. Even the Beeb's been pretty critical

If you hadn't noticed Strapworld, the Tories tried right wingers and failed miserably the past two elections & considering your only candidate appears to be Redwood, I'd stick with Cameron.

malone

Richard, the wife beater Prescott, you don't even know where Belize is. That's the problem, put people as thick as you in charge of the country and look what happens. The sad thing is you and your fellow ministers are crooked enough to make money out your positions and those of us who are educated can move abroad, but your client state of millions who you have duped as being their saviours can do nothing.

Austin Barry

From YouGov's website:

"...so by joining our panel of over 280,000 members and taking part in our surveys you really can get your voice heard."

Which probably means that they poll the same set of self-selecting, left-wing tossers who make up a normal Question Time audience.

John David Barnett

Does anyone actually read Richard's comments? I stopped a long time ago. Ignore him.

Chuck Unsworth

@ Richard

Spelling: 2/10

Grammar: 3/10

Intellect: Nil. See me after the lesson.

Huw Thornton

Yes, it's worrying, but it's still ours to win.

I just long for a leadership that will keep things simple, rather than trying to be too clever, and moving around in too many directions.

If we can get a few simple themes promoted properly, we could romp home.

David Ossitt

Wilber Wilberforce

“It's interesting to note that over the last few weeks, as the You Gov polls have shown an increasing Tory dip that as a Conservative I am no longer required to give my opinion on electoral matters.

I can't believe this is a one off.

A tide of filth hangs over us.”

Wilber I could have written your piece; you are correct in every detail, methinks that they are not asking those of us who have previously indicated our conservative support.

This is shit pedalling at its very worst; You Gov is owned by labour supporters, Cameron should put his hit team to work on this.

Vulture

Dave and Oiky are taking their text from King Lear : "I shall do such things....what they are yet I know not..but they shall be the terror of the world".

People are being asked to buy a Tory pig in a poke. So they fear the worst - memories of savage Tory cuts are stirred, and when these are proposed by a couple of pink cheeked wonders living comfortably on Trust Funds - well, we can see what's happening.

The worst Govt in living memory are getting a free pass.

WetherspoonThree

Wilbur Wilberforce

I think you will find that with current sophisticated polling methods, psephologists at YouGov are quite capable of extrapolting future voting intentions from the shopping lists..

Phil Tomlinson

At a day very soon the story will be,how and why was this daily poll by YouGov so divorced from reality.

Right On

I think after yesterday Cameron has but one option left - publish a draft budget. Outline what they are going to do and aggressivley paint a picture of what will happen if the action required is not taken.

The government's feeble 13 year record appears to have been taken off the table, Brown's inability to do the job, nor his unpopularity seem to be enough.

They have six weeks to show that they really are different from the mess of a current government.

Greenslime

As was seen yesterday, Labour will steal policies without shame - then claim it was theirs all along.

That is why Labour has desperately been trying to draw out Tory plans; so that they can steal or ambush. Now they have laid their final cards on the table, the Tories can start to come out with policies without fear of that happening, though the lies will continue.

The problem is that most voters don't read the Telegraph, or the Times, or the FT. They read the Mirror and the Sun, and they probably don't read any of the political stories anyway. They therefore really don't understand how deep the doodoo is that we are in. Most have still not been touched yet by the issues facing us and the government continues to pump money in their direction so that they will continue in this blissful ignorance. That is why they are prepared to believe the more of the 'keep calm and carry on' line - until after the election when it will be too late.

Let's hope that this was the Tory plan all along and we shall now see a pick up in tempo.

Inside Man

Shall we all have a whip-round to raise money for Richard to have an all expenses paid cruise around Somalia?

Chuck Unsworth

Why the Spectator fixation with You Gov? Look at all of the front pages today. Virtually no support for Darling, Brown and the Budget. Do these newspapers reflect public opinion? Clearly not - if You Gov has got it right. And if they don't then we can expect to see their sales fall dramatically.

I think Kellner has got it wrong. One reads regularly that his panel members are not actually being consulted about these things (Wilber Wilberforce exemplar above). In which case just who is he asking for their views - apart from Downing Street, of course? Maybe Kellner could provide us with some clarity as to how and who he consults. Maybe he could also explain why and how his polls are so different to those of his rivals.

londonerr

@ Richard

I was wondering where Stanislaw the Polish Plumber had gone, at last you're back to entertain us.

TrevorsDen

Perhaps a better headline would be one from thre Telegraph - 'Budget 2010: Alistair Darling's tax raid on middle class'

Labour are simply plainly lying through their teeth. The BBC lapping it up. I heard several headlines on the radio last night, Radio 4 and Radio 5, and none of them mentioned the freezing of tax thresholds. Dopey or conniving? You judge.

strapworld

andyinbrum, I have said that John Redwood should be in the shadow cabinet, but I have never said he should be leader. Please do not attempt to be a politician and lie!

As for the newspapers. Murdoch's Sun has said it will support the Tories. Yet Murdoch's Times most certainly does not! SkyNews is pro labour so Murdoch's support is lukewarm, to say the least.

The Daily Mail under Brown's mate Paul Dacre has a one day Tory the next Labour approach as does the Telegraph. The Guardian is the guardian as is the Mirror. The Express and Star show support for the tories but not a full bodied support.

The problem, which many do not wish to face, is that the newspapers and televison/radio political correspondents are all confused and do not want to be seen on the losing side. Therefore they are sticking with Labour whilst giving a crumb here or there to Cameron.

Cameron was dire on the ITN news last evening. Anyone who says different is wearing rose tinted spectacles.

What does it take for people to realise that Cameron has not got the support of the people? Total humiliation at the General Election perhaps?

Chris lancashire

Calm down dears, there's only one poll that matters.
And should New Labour survive with a wafer thin majority the life of the new government will be measured in weeks not months as the international bond buying community deliver the verdict the British electorate may not.

oldtimer

If this encourages Brown to call the election right away then this poll will have served a useful purpose.

Whether it is an accurate reflection of (a) opinion and (b) the way people will vote on the day is another matter. I read that Anthony Wells over at UK Polling Report is hedging his comments on this result. The polls reveal quite wide disparities in voting intentions and in their methods. There will be an interesting inquest again after the election into polling methods.

Meantime Darling seems to have assumed the role of mogadon man to help us sleepwalk to the financial disaster that awaits the UK. This morning on the BBC Breakfast programme he successfully muddied the waters by talking about reducing the "deficit" and "borrowings" in the same sentence. He was not picked up on this.

So far the deficit has been "funded" by the Bank of England printing c£200 billion. Over the next five years the government`s black borrowing hole will nearly double to c£1.3 trillion, meaning it has to raise (a) c£750 billion plus (b) whatever is required to refinance existing debt as it matures plus (c) the shorfalls that will occur as the UK fails to achieve the 3.5% growth that darling has put into his forecast for the later years.

The reality is that this budget plus the tax increases announced last year mean that taxes go up this year. Couple that with the drop in business investment, the flight of businesses and people abroad, the absence of any convincing plan for reducing government spending and it is clear that the chances of achieving his projections are about zilch.

Ian C

The IG index still has a Tory majority - a spread of 327-332 seats, Labour 226-231 and Lib Dem of 58-61.

This is a poll designed to make money, not one to help sell newspapers.

Stevie

The Mail, Spectator, Telegraph etc have not been as unswerving in their support for the Tories as the BBC, Gonad and Mirror have for Labour. So Labour have their massive gang of cheerleaders and Cameron has The Sun. It's little wonder this is happeneing.

Pramston

Labour have been building the foundations of a one party state for thirteen years. If they win now against this background of breathtaking incompetence then it is safe to say they will have succeeded. They will be able to get away with anything and they most assuredly will.

Porttuguese Dave

@ William Wilberforce

Snap! I participate in YouGov polls- Just like you I was getting a leadership poll weekly... now it's which newspaper do I buy and Brand awareness stuff. Something smells fishy....

Ian Walker

Just a thought, but I wonder if there is any coincidence in the following:

a) YouGov are an online polling organisation
b) Labour have a large number of paid and unpaid "online activists"
c) Against all common sense, Labour are catching the Tories in YouGov polls

Fox in a box

Steady lads, steady.

There's only one poll that counts and that day draws inexorably closer.

Who believes that YouGov has any credibility anyway? It's like saying the BBC is politically impartial!

General Zod

I've just put all of the polls from 24 February to 24 March into a spreadsheet. Exclusing YouGov increases the average Tory lead from 6.1% to 7.8%.

Leo McKinstry

Over the last 13 years Labour have been engaged on a massive social engineering project to refashion the electorate so they can permanently cling on to power. That project consists of four strands: a) expansion of welfare - the social security budget now reaches an astonishing £196 billion - creating an army of client voters; b) growth of the public sector and state-funded bureaucracy, now over 7 million employees; c) mass immigration. The influx of new arrivals has been running at 500,000-a-year and British passports, with full entitlement to vote, are being doled out at 220,000 a year. Meanwhile, wealth-creating, ambitious people are leaving the country in record numbers; d) remorseless state propaganda. The Government is by far the nation's biggest advertiser, while the entire state bureaucracy is devoted to promoting the socialist message of cultural diversity, climate change and so-called social justice. Brown has built a firewall around his party. It is an affront to democracy. No wonder the Tories are in trouble.

John Levett

Other than the desire to give Labour a deservedIy good kicking, I am at a loss to understand why anybody would want to vote for the equally 'big government' policies implied by the pro-EU, pro-climate change Conservative party.

Labour will win the election thanks to voter apathy. Only a promise to get government off our backs will persuade sufficient of us to engage in the five yearly cycle of deckchair-shifting.

JONNY

Always at the very best a confused pubescent,
Richard is now de-maturing into short trousers.

Tiberius

Strapworld: I'd be interested to know what is was that made Cameron's interview on ITN dire.

I only caught the last bit, where he said, "you bet" to Mark Austin, when asked whether the Tories would spell out how they would cut the deficit, during the election campaign.

I suppose that might turn out to be a dire decision if, through its honesty, it frightens the electorate into voting Labour.

toni

“Who believes that YouGov has any credibility anyway? It's like saying the BBC is politically impartial!”

.” Maybe Kellner could provide us with some clarity as to how and who he consults. Maybe he could also explain why and how his polls are so different to those of his rivals.”

Or, as there appears so much distrust in Kellner you could ask Stephan Shakespeare,
Chief Innovations Officer and a major shareholder of the high-profile British Internet-based market research and opinion polls company YouGov, he also owns the websites ConservativeHome and the non-partisan PoliticsHome, which he launched in April 2008 after closing down his Internet television channel (Tory) 18 Doughty Street
In the 1997 general election, Shakespeare was the Conservative candidate for Colchester.

Wonder why the editor here didn’t tell you this?
Keeping the regulars on the boil? ;0)

Nicholas

William Wilberforce. You and me both. YouGov know my political leaning and I have not been invited to participate in a politics poll for more than 6 months. And before that rarely.

You only have to look at that ghastly Baroness Ashton's pig-ugly, pudding face and it reveals all.

Liberty

The Tories big problem is that Labour really have managed to change the political landscape in their favour. Labour have created or expanded the number of people dependent on them hugely. Welfare dependants, not only those not working but the low paid who think they are being subsidised by the rich. The huge public sector in cushy jobs with inflation proofed pensions who want it to continue. Three millions immigrants who are grateful to Labour for letting them in who are often working in the public sector in jobs they could not have dreamed of back home. None of these people want their lives to get worse and the more realistic amongst them know that it cannot go on but all would prefer to believe a plausible case and Labour are expert in lying, dissembling and really do believe that the government and them can and should run almost everything. Of course, if all these Labour people and state dependants thought things through they would see that all the tax rise over the last 12 years has not been enough and the government has had to borrow to pay them. They and most of the media really believe that the nasty Americans and bankers are to blame for the recession and that the potential for future tax raising to keep them is unlimited. Very few realise that if half our wealth was not taken by the government and mostly wasted on non-jobs to do things that are not necessary, done badly at huge cost with corruption taking a big slice we would be twice as rich and wouldn't have to work nearly as hard. Few nowadays realise that the free market is inherently less corrupt and more efficient than the public sector and should be the first choice system for all goods and services. This is why the Tories cannot tell the whole truth. They would lose too many votes. People are too scared and ignorant.

Walsingham's Ghost

My experience of YouGov's approach to 'weighting' of political polling recently is to stand in the middle of Upper Street Islington in North London and ask people who they will vote for. The answer is rarely Tory...

WG

JONNY

Let us make no bones about it.
If Brown gets 10 or 15 more seats, two things will happen.
1. A deal with the LD's that will hugely refresh the government and bring in the likes of Cable, Clegg, Ming Campbell and Paddy Ashdown. Quite a popular line-up which will sweep to a Second Election victory 18 months after. And cement us hard into Europe.
2. A deal on AR, which will put the Tories back another 30 or seats or so.
So if Cameron loses
some of the posters here can yell Blue Murder and create as much Clear Blue Water as they like -
but they won't stand a dog's chance of getting into power for many years ahead. If ever.

toni

And at the same time oldtimer, GO would only argue the toss over the definition of bloat and bulk on Radio4 and Sky, and has no intention of suggesting that he'd move forward harder or further than Labour.
And talking of vacuous interviews, Cameron and Gay Times takes some beating!.

Rainer Unsinn

"Chuck Unsworth
In which case just who is he asking for their views........."

Members of Unite?

Simon Stephenson

Chuck Unsworth and others

YouGov

Let's just say, for instance, that there was evidence that opinion polls influenced how people subsequently voted, and that solid research had been done as to how this effect actually panned out in practice.

Does anyone in their tiny cotton-picking minds believe that a Party led by Gordon Brown wouldn't have arranged to have an "independent" market research organisation doing its bidding? Do we really believe that its behaviour would be constrained by adherence to some sort of party-political Queensbury Rules?

sue

I also have been signed up to YouGov for over 3 years and have not been asked to complete a survey on any political subject recently, I guess they know of my political leaning from previous surveys and now only get asked to complete the brand awareness thing... which i have stopped completing as it just boring

Liz Brown

I suggest that we are so pissed off by these opinion polls that we are saying that we would vote for donkeys with rosettes to make them go away
then of course we are pissed off with MP's lying, troughing and laughing all the way to the bank

2trueblue

oldtimer, the BBC have their own agenda, but I am actually unsure that they are not also ignorant, not up to speed, and just plain stupid.

J

oldtimer, the misuse of the words 'debt, deficit and borrowing' by the BBC is deliberate. If not then they are also ignorant and should get some tuition on the meanings/ It is important that they give out solid correct information. Sorry, forgot that we were talking about the BBC, who speak at the behest of Liebore.

Jonny, it might happen and then we are well and truely stuffed.

TrevorsDen

Strapworld - the tory message - the honest one - is that we face a dire future one where we face horrible cuts and economies to compensate for Browns unsustainable spending spree.
Labour are saying don't worry no real problem its all OK. And of course so far it is, because they are mortgaging our future with their excessive borrowing - just to keep the truth at bay.

These are the facts - thats why its a difficult message to get across. The message - the honest one - is unpalatable.

Labours honesty consists of sneaking out press releases on the same day as the budget which spell out £4 billion of economies (cuts) to the NHS. Did you realise that - did the BBC remind us? Well thats the future we face.

Meantime it was only a couple of days ago that YG produced a poll showing the Tories on 40% in London with a 9 point lead. Are we really to believe that the rest of the country is so different? These daily polls have a methodology which 'weights' down tory responders and ups labour. Do we think this makes sense? YG say its because of response rates from their panel - it seems to me the very idea of having a panel distorts the sample and poll - but what do I know?

But if you take any poll as gospel - you are a fool.

anne allan

I am also a YouGov panelist. Again, I am rarely asked political questions. The secret, I suspect, is to tick the 'don't know/undecided' box in your first political survey.
The idea that your political beliefs can be deduced from consumption patterns dates back to the ill-fated Voter Vault, which was designed for the two party American system. It failed to account for the nuances of British consumer behaviour and the existence of the LibDems.

Liz Brown

Inside Man - you beat me too it.........

Simon Stephenson

Leo McKinstry : 10.09am

Yes. I agree with every word of this.

I think I would have made the point that Labour's desperation to hold on to power is not really about satisfaction of personal power-lusts, but about the continuing ability to impose a social order that the Party hierarchy believe to be correct. I only make this point because so many these days don't appreciate that motivation can be the result of something other than self-interest.

Just yesterday evening I read a comment on Matthew Taylor's blog that detailed Professor AC Grayling's perspective on individualism:-

"But personal autonomy and responsibility, self-determination, and independence are in fact far more likely to promote than to degrade concern for others, because any reflective individual recognizes that individuals benefit from cooperation and mutuality, for humans are social animals and the fullest growth of individual potential lies in a social setting. To stress the point; ‘co-operation and mutuality’ are not ‘conformity and uniformity’; individualism is the rejection of the later, not the former."

Labour under Brown stands diametrically opposed to this point of view, and every policy that it pursues will be designed as an attack on individualism.

John

Wilber Wilberforce and the rest of YouGov posters you can add me to that list.
I have seen many posters on other sites saying the same thing, so what is YouGov upto?

Bob Cat

And what was Blair's lead over Major at this stage in 1997 ?

Perhaps Dave's little band of cheerleaders can reflect on that one and then explain to me the difference ?

Brown's government is every bit as dysfunctional as Major's was. So the reason for this state of affairs is......

Craig Strachan

It's not a blip. The narrowing trend has been evident for weeks if not months now. By the time the election is called I wouldn't be surprised to see Labour in the lead.

Watt Tyler

The message of this poll states that Progressive Tories, who look to please (and fool) all men all of the time, wet their knickers when a poll - the indicator of the success or failure of their vascillating, presenting, and spin - is bad.

Yosemite Sam

Leo McKinstry is correct about the way in which Brown, and Labour, have set about structuring the electoral landscape in their favour. To the points he makes I can add two more: the scandal over postal voting, and the amazing constituency gerrymandering. On this latter point, I was explaining to a an american friend of mine the reason why the Tories need a 9% - 10% lead in vote share to ensure an overall majority and he was outraged. Why are we not outraged when the polls are giving the Tories a 5% lead, but there is talk of Brown winning. Amazing!

Chris

Oh god...
This is partially the consequence of Cameron's craven inability to put forward sound right-wing policies."

You couldn't be more wrong I'm afraid. Cameron's initial lead was fundamentally linked to his ability to hold the centre ground.

As in, to become new labours mirror image.

His troubles in polling, has come from learing to the right. Listening too much to core party support basically.

Sadly, the tories can't win an election with just tory backing. They need a LOT of both Lib Dem and Labour support as well.

Cameron's problems are related to his inability to ignore "those who shout loudest" on forums, radio phone ins, and newspaper message boards.

And understanding, as Labour do, that the vast majority of the electorate are actually pretty moderate these days.

A recent poll on what people actuall care about, (yesterday) had the top 3 issues as:

1: NHS
2: Taxation
3: Public Services
4: Economy
5: Crime and Punishment
6: Immigration.
12: EU

Immigration only just sneaked into the top 6. EU wasn't even in the top 10.

Labour led, on most of the top 5, other than immigration.

99% of election winning is correctly reading public mood.

Labour do it much better than the tories

Chris

Strapworld - the tory message - the honest one - is that we face a dire future one where we face horrible cuts and economies to compensate for Browns unsustainable spending spree.
Labour are saying don't worry no real problem its all OK. And of course so far it is, because they are mortgaging our future with their excessive borrowing - just to keep the truth at bay.

These are the facts - thats why its a difficult message to get across. The message - the honest one - is unpalatable

============================================

Trevorsden

This is honesty, from the point of view of the tories. As in, what they want to do.

I don't think you will find many facts to support most of their claims on the economy.

I think the actual truth is that the economy is worse than what Labour say, but nowhere near as bad as what the tories try to claim.

The tories cuts are ideological. Not factual. They'd probably make similar cuts, even if we were in boom years, if you left them in power long enough.

Labour tactics will be to do as they are doing. It's bad, but not that bad.

Tories will be to probably over-hype the situation, to pave the way for their ideological public services slashing.

You know, you have George Osborne today claiming we will end up like Greece in 3 years, if we don't cut immediately.

This is an outright, flagrant, lie I'm afraid.

Chris

I'm absolutely despair... who that can vote hates this country that much that they would actually vote for the most venal, mendacious, corrupt, sleazy and downright dishonest government ever to sit in parliament.

Brown looked yesterday like he is was off his meds, Darling was a sanctimonius simpleton who thinks that not quite having helped bankrupt the UK as much as it first appeared is a commendation.

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Richard

A few tips on politics. I hope they serve you well, and lead to a less frustrated life.

1: Not everyone likes tory ideology
2: Not everyone likes the tory party
3: A heck of a lot of people would rather have anyone in power - including Brown - rather than vote tory.

The tories problem is the simple reading of public mood. Their voters have the same problem.

They seem to think that everyone HAS to think as they do on subjects.

They don't. Hence polling

Chris

Just a thought, but I wonder if there is any coincidence in the following:

a) YouGov are an online polling organisation
b) Labour have a large number of paid and unpaid "online activists"
c) Against all common sense, Labour are catching the Tories in YouGov polls

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1: Nearly all polling companies have the lead at between 2-5% now. All basically saying the same thing. Hung parliament

2: The tories have nearly 3x as many online activists as Labour. They have nearly 3x as many bloggers. Lord Ashcroft ploughs huge amounts of money into online activism, and blogging.

3: What most tory voters don't seem to understand. It may be "common sense" in the eyes of tory party backers. Sadly for the tories, all voters have their own opinions on subjects.

I assure you, take any poll you want. Cameron is only marginally more popular than Brown personally.

And Labour lead the tories, by a long way, on things like the NHS, Education, Policing, Taxation, Public Services. They aren't even far behind on things like spending cuts, and the economy any more.

Problems are very deep. Much more than pure conspoiracy.

The tories are still 5% behind in their 100 marginals. That's only a 4% swing from 2005. They need 8% to get a majority.

I'd really wake up, tory party.

You could well lose this one if you don't pull your socks up

Chris

“Who believes that YouGov has any credibility anyway? It's like saying the BBC is politically impartial!”

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This often amuses. And a telling example of the tories general problem.

Their "right to govern" theorising. Party and backers thinking they are right on a subject, and anyone that differs from this is either:

1: Wrong
2: Mad
3: Biased.

The BBC are actually about as impartial as it gets. They bash Labour just as much as the tories.

It's the latter part that tory voters have the problem with. Their "right to govern" arrogance, means that any attacks on things that the tories do wrong, has to be "conspiracy".

Tory party "impartiality" is a none stop, 24 hour a day, 7 day a week, attack on Labour unfortunately.

Which is why the BBC offends you so much

Bob Cat

Chris you are talking utter twaddle and are plainly infected with 'Focusgroupitis'. If what you say is true Attlee would never have won in '45; MacMillan would never have won in '59; Heath would never have won in 1970; Wilson certainly wouldn't have won in '74 - twice - and Thatcher would today be forgotten.

Real leadership comes from the likes of Thatcher, Reagan and Churchill - if you will - who know what is required, particularly when the country faces the sort of meltdown, social as well as economic, that we now do.

They don't spend their time with a wetted finger seeking the breeze and none of the above three required any 'Focus Group' tat to show them the way.

Cameron - if he does blow this - will do so because he's utterly incapable of persuading the electorate that he is tough enough to rise to the challenges we face. If to govern is to choose, to aspire to govern, is to at least offer a semblance of an outline of what you believe. This he has not done and is not doing in any convincing way. There is no such thing as 'a middle ground' and if there was we would have had milk and water governments since the Great Reform act.

That is what these polls show, as Brown should be dog meat by now, given his denial, dishonesty and purblind delusion. As I have said before, the choice between these two is to all intents and purposes, the worst for this country in it's post war history.
God help us all ! Regardless of the outcome.

Ian C

Just relax everyone. There are a bunch of headless chickens here. Trust humanity - even a partially rigged electoral humanity. Even they know what a wasteland looks like and GB is the route to it.

This poll is an outlier and Thatcher only had a 2-3% lead on polling day 1979. She had a 40 majority. Cameron will have a 20-30 seat majority. Not a ripping endorsement but enough to get on with while Labour tear themselves apart.

togram

YOUGOV I believe are not reflecting the truth.If you ask questions a certain way you can get any answer you want!

Tony

I am not overwhelmed with enthusiasm for the labour party, but I will vote for them all the same. Like millions of other people, I know that they are a much better choice for the majority of people. By the
way, I am not a criminal, or a dole scrounger, but I will get to the polling station.

Jeff Ainsworth

I agree with Wilber Wilberforce (25/3/2010) I have today been asked my views on politicians for the first time in a long time. Who are YouGuv asking - labour party members? Everyone I speak to cannot see the back of Brown and his lying toads soon enough.