Labour's spending cuts exposed
Fraser Nelson 7:42pm
Darling has now exposed as false the Brown/Balls dividing line of "investment vs cuts". If Labour were to win, he said, the cuts would be worse than anything seen under Thatcher in the 1980s. This is Darling's problem: he's a dreadful liar. The IFS today laid out the scale of the cuts that would happen whoever wins the election, and the below graph is worth reprinting. Overall spending falls 12 percent (once dole and debt interest are taken into account). So when Darling says this is worse than anything in the 1980s, he is simply stating a fact. You'd never catch Balls or Brown doing that, by the way, and I hope that, when either pop up for interview, they will be asked if they agree with their Chancellor's assessment.
The rest of the IFS graph is worth studying for the dire implications for defence, transport etc. The "protected" areas are overseas aid (which is to double, no matter who wins the election), health (also to be protected, no matter who wins), but Labour has added in a 0.7 percent increase in "frontline" school spending - a policy intended to give Ed Balls one of his precious dividing lines (which he loved using with Philip Hammond on Sky yesterday). The Treasury have (surprise, surprise) not costed these, but anyone can do the maths. The IFS did. The dotted blue line is the budget for the "protected" areas put together: a 2.9 percent increase if protected for the life of the parliament. But if they were protected over the parliament, then the political soft targets - policing, defence, transport, justice etc - would have their budgets cut by a mammoth 25 percent.
This is why I think ringfencing - while an attractive option on the campaign trail - is a bad idea for government. It is hard to justify such dichotomies. Why should the DFID budget double, if the defence budget is plunging by a quarter in a time of war? The below chart is one to bear in mind when you hear Balls and Brown (and Toynbee) talking about the "unknown unknowns" which have - deplorably - prevented them from printing a spending review. You can guess the figures. If Labour wins, there will be cuts - and massive ones. It's dishonest to pretend
otherwise.




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annassasin
March 25th, 2010 8:03pm Report this commentSadly this report will not appear in any of the redtops or broadsheets, it isn't sexy enough. Cheryl Cole and rail strike will be seen as more important.
paul holdstock
March 25th, 2010 8:05pm Report this commentFraser, i've just been reading an interesting piece on john redwoods blog.
from what the tables he shows say, 'thatchers cuts', are just a myth.
the actual spending went up under her government from the level they inherited from labour.
if this is in fact correct,
why are neither the tories, or indeed, you, screaming from the rooftops about this labour spin?
this seems to me, 'bear of little brain that i am', to be HIGHLY relevant in the current climate.
if it's wrong, what is Redwood banging on about?
djw2009
March 25th, 2010 8:11pm Report this commentFraser, we absolutely cannot vote for a supposedly conservative party that is doubling spending on "international development" while implementing tax rises and cuts at home. It would simply be totally wrong to vote for such a party. The Spectator should campaign for a Tory defeat simply in order to get rid of "Dave".
fe
March 25th, 2010 8:19pm Report this commentYou mention cuts in police spending, which reminds me that one way the Gov't can cut central spending is by hiving responsibilities off on local authorities.
In Herts, where I live, the police precept is the one part of the council tax bill to go up appreciably.
And of course, the level of council tax you pay depends on how much central gov't doles out in rate support grant (or whatever they now call it).
Perhaps we should expect some cuts in central government suport, along with rises in locally gathered taxes, next year.
toco
March 25th, 2010 8:28pm Report this commentAs we all know the dangerously dysfunctional Brown is dishonest and duplicitious.The thought of another five years of him and the Balls/Cooper bad dream team doesn't bear thinking about.
strapworld
March 25th, 2010 8:40pm Report this commentMr Nelson. This is what Cameron and boy george should have been shouting for weeks. Instead of being honest with the people they have proved to be just as bad as Brown.
It is just criminal almost insane, unless of course Cameron does not want to win!, for him to lose such a commanding lead and show that he is such a lightweight with a really poor team. Goodness knows what we can expect now.
Darling has, at long last, been open and honest -although dragged into saying it- Cameron and his shoddy team are still hiding the awful truth from the people.
djw2009. Exactly!
Moraymint
March 25th, 2010 8:53pm Report this commentAs a 20-year ex-serviceman myself, to my brother officers still serving, I'm finding it incredibly difficult not to exhort them to get out now while they're still alive.
Neither the Labour Party nor the Tories give a toss about defence and security: it's way down the list of priorities behind all the health, welfare, do-gooding, touchy-feely stuff which has now all but bankrupted the Kingdom. Thirteen years of unopposed Marxism and we're now all but dead in the water.
Why on earth any man or woman would these days opt to fight and die for the disgraceful shambles that is now the political class of this nation, beats me. Thank God our troops still fight for each other and the Queen.
When one reads analyses like this, Fraser, it's bloody difficult to understand what the hell is going on in the tiny minds of the pillocks hanging out in Westminster.
We need to get angry like the Yanks are doing over there.
THX1138
March 25th, 2010 9:05pm Report this commentHalf truth Nelson writes boring post with boring graphs and dull jargon and acronyms, that I've forgotten already
And Mandelson calls Osborne "the Shallow Chancellor" which everyone will remember
It's men against boys!
John Richardson
March 25th, 2010 9:06pm Report this commentMr Nelson,
Two things.
1) The cuts/investment debate is strictly for those who earn their money in the
'politics game'.
No one else gives a toss. No one else thinks that is the choice. This is because everyone else in the country knows they are being lied to by the above.
They know the country will have Tax rises and spending cuts...as soon as the General Election is over.
The rest is lies.
2) Have you ever considered the prospect of a political magazine that looks at things from a 'right wing' perspective ?
Just think : immigration : criminal justice ; cultural invasion ; a degenerate parasitic Welfare State.
All these issues are 'crying out' for someone to present the (majority) 'right wing' perspective and analysis.
It could be a winner !
Snowman
March 25th, 2010 9:10pm Report this commentFraser, you’ve exposed neatly what many of us have figured months ago. There ain’t a Rizzla paper difference between the two. What’s the bloody point voting for the Tories then?
Camerroon’s idea of doubling the current £9.1bn overseas aid budget just beggars belief. You sure about this? The British taxpayer enriching a few, already wealthy and mostly corrupt potentates in the developing world rather than getting this country back on her feet? Madness or worse.
Austin Barry
March 25th, 2010 9:42pm Report this commentJohn Richardson @ 9.06 pm
Good point. The Speccie is becoming too attenuated, anemic and centre-right. What we need is some robust, kick-ass journal which can cast a very cold, clinical intellectual eye on the mal-administered, maltreated UK as it declines into Dystopistan.
Where's George Orwell, the right kind of Old Etonian, when you need him?
That said, the Speccie is a vey readable, lively journal, but a mild-mannered Golden Retriever when we need a rabid Staffordshire Bull Terrier.
Snowman
March 25th, 2010 9:56pm Report this commentJohn Richardson: spot on
THX1138
March 25th, 2010 10:00pm Report this commentMy favourite bit of the budget was Cameron going "this budget does nothing worthwhile" and a minute later bleating "they stole all our ideas"
Which is it Dave?
TrevorsDen
March 25th, 2010 10:24pm Report this commentThatchers 'cuts' were indeed a myth. The point is we had cuts on totally unsustainable labour spending; spending which they were splashing out on just before an election; unsustainable spending which was straight out of Alice in Wonderland.
Sounds familiar?
To be fair to the BBC they have been as blunt in exposing Darlings deception as we could hope from them. They also pointed out that a large group of people simply think that a bit of efficiency will cull the deficit and debt.
So you see why Labours poll ratings are up - people believe (maybe with wishful thinking they want to believe) labours lies.
Major Plonquer
March 25th, 2010 11:01pm Report this commentGood grief! Does this mean we won't be sharing the proceeds of growth then?
TGF UKIP
March 25th, 2010 11:36pm Report this commentAustin Barry, Snowman, John Richardson, Moraymint, Strapworld - hear, hear, hear! I agree with every word.
Fitalass
March 25th, 2010 11:51pm Report this commentYes Fraser, and you missed this yesterday. In your article entitled 'In defence of Alistair Darling', you missed that elephant in the room. It wasn't Alastair Darling's budget yesterday, it was a political bit of posturing co-authored by Lord Mandelson. The Lord Ashcroft stuff should have given that away, totally out of character for Darling, and in the middle of an economic budget for heavens sake! No, that was pure Mandelson spin with a dash of Brown/Balls spite.
'Brown doubtless thought him an automaton when he appointed him to the job - but I was wrong to say that he would be "no more a Chancellor than Captain Scarlett was an actor".
He has defied Brown, bringing moderation and much-needed dullness to the worst fiscal crisis in Britain's peacetime history. In James's political column last week he suggested that Darling calls his autobiography "the forces of hell" - that he would defy Brown like that takes some guts. It felt strange to praise Darling in the editorial of tomorrow's magazine, given that he has presided over this fiscal collapse. But working within the parameters, I do believe he did the best he could.'
A vacuous piece of politicking in place of a sound and honest appraisal of the our economic situation and what lies ahead, coupled with a clear plan of how Labour plan to half that deficit was needed. A spending review before the GE because of our precarious position would have been bold and brave, and that would have made Darling his own man in the Treasury.
Instead he gave in and gave us a worthless waste of paper weeks before a GE so his masters could play politics while pretending to govern.
I know that Mandelson co-authored this budget because Martin Kettle told us this in an article in the Guardian yesterday. You know Mandelson, never one to hide his influence in any set piece or government drama these days. I look forward to your article in your magazine in light of that.
Darling is vulnerable in his seat in Edinburgh, neither Brown or Lord Mandelson have to worry about losing their seats in either house at Westminster. That is a powerful bargaining tool. Darling had his chance to leave a legacy as Ken Clarke did, by putting the UK economy ahead of party politics and doing the right thing. But as Gordon Brown knows well, to do that might have given Osborne an advantage during the upcoming campaign. Brown stuck to Ken Clark's spending plans which enabled him to calm and reassure the markets and the electorate. He was also able to take the credit as well.
Unlike yourself, he remembers the political history. That is why there was no spending review and we got the budget we did. Osborne unlike Darling doesn't get the access, either to the numbers or swathe of number crunchers that roam the Treasury.
I watched Osborne today in the Commons, very impressive and on top of his brief against Darling's minions. Darling didn't turn up. But still, we have your view of Darling's budget, and a much more lengthy critique of Osborne's Today programme instead.
Anna
March 25th, 2010 11:59pm Report this commentI have been wondering when someone would mention the Tory commitment to Overseas Aid. It's ridiculous and it really wouldn't upset the applecart if they scaled this one right back. Among the places we are giving aid to is India to help it's poor.
This is a country that is a nuclear power, has a space programme and is turning out world class engineers by the hundreds. Elsewhere it ends up in Swiss bank accounts or guns for 10-year-olds. It's time we got our national priorities sorted.
Nicholas
March 26th, 2010 12:38am Report this commentActually THX you have misquoted Cameron. He said there was nothing worthwhile in the budget EXCEPT for the ideas which were stolen from the Tories.
Moriarty
March 26th, 2010 7:39am Report this comment@THX
Perhaps you should stick with "Charlie and Lola".
Alexandrovich
March 26th, 2010 8:15am Report this commentI watched you on This Week last night Fraser.
Why were those two Mossad blokes chasing you - trying to get their hat back?
Naomi Muse
March 26th, 2010 8:23am Report this commentThank you, Fraser.
These figures expose both Labour and Conservative claims as at best wrong, and at worst, duplicitous and conniving.
Most folks had feared the worst and these graphs confirm it.
Whilst there was hope that the Tories might do better, that hope is getting less and less as neither party do what they should for the country.
Now they are going off on their Easter break only to launch into full scale electionitis immediately the trains go on strike and still no-one shows the nous or responsibility to govern the country for the good of us all.
They should be ashamed of themselves.
Victor Southern
March 26th, 2010 8:24am Report this commentStrapworld - the Tories have been telling you for many months that the country is overspent and drastic cuts in spending are essential. You are simply so consumed with your anti-Cameronism that you just don't hear.
TK421
March 26th, 2010 9:02am Report this comment@THX1138: The authentic voice of the modern Briton. "Economics? Bawwwwwrin'... As long as the government can print my giro money, what's the problem? Pass the Wii, I fancy a game of foopball."
"Men versus boys"? More like simplistic reassuring lies versus complex and unpalatable truths.
strapworld
March 26th, 2010 9:19am Report this commentMr Southern, If that is the case, why then couldn't Cameron answer a straight question on ITV's News at Ten?
I accept that they have been talking about tough decisions, we are all in this together, the national debt etc. etc. BUT you tell me just what they have proposed and where the cuts will be made? You cannot because Cameron, Osborne and co have not said, they instead talk about ring fencing the NHS and Overseas Aid! Keeping this and keeping that. Please Mr Southern explain to me what you have deduced!
THX1138
March 26th, 2010 10:13am Report this commentMoriarty & TK421- And how are those polls doing? Do tell!
Whig
March 26th, 2010 10:20am Report this commentThe political discourse in this country is absurd. All the talk is of 'cuts' when really we should be thinking of ways to 'reform' the state by taking power away and returning it to invdividuals (not local councils!). The size of the state is totally unaffordable, now exceeding the private sector. The other problem is that the Tories have failed to engage with the idea that government spending aids recovery and we should be cautious about reducing it. Manifestly it does not do so! Keynes, or his followers, was wrong, and even if he was right he would not have advocated such a high level of debt and taxation, recognising some basic concepts such as crowding out and the Laffer curve. Moreover, the recession was caused by a monetary contraction, not a decline in aggregate demand, so how does a demand-based stimulus help? The Tories should use concepts such as the Rahn curve, which suggests that government spending should be somewhere like 15-25% of GDP to maximise economic growth, that deficit spending does not stimulate the economy and that the national debt repayments cost more than the defence budget. Reduction of the state is not the same as simple 'cuts' - if the state doesn't provide a service, it can't cut its budget (e.g. the universites, where also the state takes from the poorest to provide a service the richest benefit from - why?). They should also use concepts such as Liberty and Freedom from State Oppression, this would totally shift the terms of the debate away from activist government and create a REAL dividing line based upon an opposing ideology.
Of course, there's a simple way to solve the budgetary problem. This is to take all services out of the hands of the public sector bar defence and justice, utterly reform the welfare budget and privatise everything that's left eg motorways. This would leave only real public goods in public hands rather than 'social' goods which the private sector can provide, with a modicum of state assistance (e.g. vouchers). That way we can start paying off the national debt (not merely solving the deficit problem), and afford decent armed forces. We can then slash all taxes, which will stimulate real economic growth - unlike 'fiscal stimulus', which only takes money from one group and awards it to another!
David Hatfield
March 26th, 2010 10:20am Report this commentFrom purely a political point of view is this an election the Tories want to win? Give Bruin a small majority,the IMF bagmen arrive and then the country realising, just how bancrupt UK PLC is, will turn to the Tories once again to sort out the mess.
TK421
March 26th, 2010 11:09am Report this comment@THX: I've revised my view of your earlier plaintive bleat. After all, it takes a kind of 'manliness' to look at a projected £1.4 trillion public debt and argue with a straight face that it represents a success, so perhaps you have a point. Just not a very good one.
Regardess, pointing at the Tories' standing in the polls is utterly irrelevant to the discussion. Labour could be ten points ahead: it wouldn't reduce the gravity of the mess they've made. My wife loves me in spite of the fact that I beat her and spend all her money on crack and photo-shopped Harriet Harman porn. That doesn't make crack or wife-beating OK.
strapworld
March 26th, 2010 11:14am Report this commentwith the news last night about the German/French paper to the Heads of Governments meeting to change the title to, in effect, the Government of the EU albeit they only talk about the economy of the EU....Perhaps all this debt is one way of this dastardly government to create the situation whereby, like Greece. we are bailed out by the EU rendering this country in total hock to the EU.
No wonder Brown did not want a referendum.
Perhaps in the light of all this Cameron could make a very popular move and promise an immediate referendum on IN or OUT of the EU?
What is the betting Cameron will show real leadership on this question!
THX1138
March 26th, 2010 12:34pm Report this commentComRes poll on who is most trusted on economy post-budget: GB/AD 33% (+7), DC/GO 27% (-6), NC/VC 13% (-6).
2trueblue
March 26th, 2010 1:19pm Report this commentStrapworld, Darling had his opportunity and he blew it. He will not be chancellor no matter who wins, so he could have told the truth then. It is now too late and anything he says should not be given airtime, it is irrelevant, as is he. It's a case of 'too late mate'.
David Hatfield, if Liebore get in at all they will change everything to insure that we have them forever. Not worth the risk. Would you really trust Mandleslime/Balls/Cooper/Brown/Byrne/Adonis to play fair???? The media are trying to sleepwalk us into such a situation.
David Ossitt
March 27th, 2010 6:53am Report this commentTHX1138
“My favourite bit of the budget was Cameron going "this budget does nothing worthwhile" and a minute later bleating "they stole all our ideas"
Which is it Dave?”
Hi THX1138; it looks as though you have flip-flopped back to labour?
Your heart was never really in it; switching sides that is.
It is probably for the best; you must see that nobody really likes, or ever trusts, a turn coat.
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