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Tuesday, 30th March 2010

Why Blair's return is good news for the Tories

Fraser Nelson 8:02pm

Blair's return will be worth a good 2-3 points to the Tory lead. Like Mandelson, he can dazzle journalists who admire his tradecraft. Like Mandelson, he is loathed by the public who see a snake oil salesman. Blair mis-sold the country a project in 1997, and delivered none of what he promised (and it was with those broken 1997 problems in mind that the News of the World backed the Conservatives last weekend). He is not very popular now.

When he gave evidence to the Chilcott Inquiry, the crowds came from near and far to denounce him. One placard, which I found outside my office, said "Blair is a war criminal" then someone had taped below it "and a w****r" but without the asterisks. Whoever did this wanted to make a point: that besides his objection to our intervetion in southern Iraq, he held a low regard for Blair personally. And when you consider the gulf between what he offered and what he delivered, no wonder.

So let Blair come. Let his grin be on every newspaper tomorrow. It will all serve as a reminder to the swing voters about how they should never trust a Labour promise.

UPDATE: THX1138, Blair is in demand commercially because he's an excellent speaker. We listened to his mellifluous speeches for ten years, and what did it get us? I actually agree with Blair not just on Iraq and Britain's place in the world but, more importantly, public sector reform. In the end, he couldn't deliver because he never properly got the better of Brown and the vested interests. That's why, for all my agreement with Blair's pro-market agenda, I have no nostalgia for his premiership.

As for his future in the campaign, Steve Nolan put it well on Five Live: they'll test his poll ratings and, if they are good, invite him back on. If he bombs, they won't.

But the reformist Labour party that Blair represents was beaten into retreat WHILE he was still leader. New Labour died with the 50p tax Budget, and the more we see of Blair the more we'll be reminded that we have Old Labour - in the form of the Brown-Whelan-Simpson axis of thugs - back in charge now.

Filed under: Chilcot Inquiry (44 more articles) , Conservatives (2070 more articles) , Election 2010 (598 more articles) , Iraq (155 more articles) , Labour (2012 more articles) , Tony Blair (228 more articles) , UK politics (4902 more articles)

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Zoo keeper (Elephant House)

March 30th, 2010 8:10pm Report this comment

I'll be the first to comment.
Blair is treacherous scum.

annassasin

March 30th, 2010 8:15pm Report this comment

I do hope so. The Tories need every point. The public need a reason to vote, they have not seen one yet.

Dungeekin

March 30th, 2010 8:18pm Report this comment

Extract from "God's On A Mission From Me: The Memoirs of Tony Bliar"
Available from all good bookshops, £15,999.99

Chapter 766: The Resurrection

1. And Lo, it did come to pass that in the last days of Labour, The Tone did arise again. And he did forsake the fees of book tours, and put himself among the Party Faithful, for to offer succour in their time of darkness. And orange was the Hue of The Tone, for he had spent much time on the beaches of the Middle East in his Tonely mission of peace bringing and personal enrichment.

2. And the Party Faithful cried out, saying Lo, The Tone has come among us in our time of darkness, to lead us unto slightly less of a kicking in the polls.

(rest at dungeekin.blogspot.com/2010/03/saviour-of-labour.html)

D

Balding scot

March 30th, 2010 8:24pm Report this comment

Unfortunately Blair should not be underestimated. With millions not working, on benefits or employed by the public sector, many can still be sucked in by his comments. God help us.

Mike Armitage

March 30th, 2010 8:25pm Report this comment

I thought Nick Robinson was doing his usual stuff, until he signed off this evening's 6.00pm news item by describing Bliar's tan as 'orange'!

He even repeated the mantra... "The future's great, the future's Orange..."!

What's Beeboidspeak for a P45...

David Lindsay

March 30th, 2010 8:27pm Report this comment

Tony Blair has influenced one General Election result, ever. That was in 2005, when he lost Labour a hundred seats. Neither the 2001 nor the 1997 result was anything to do with him in the least. And before that, no one had ever heard of him.

Richard

March 30th, 2010 8:28pm Report this comment

You do seem to be making an assumtion that those who dislike Blair will vote Tory.
A bit silly when you think most of those people outside the Chilcot inquiry are just as angry with expenses abuse and most likely not to vote at all.
Despite your assertion that he is disliked I would suggest that you under estimate his appeal among waivering Labour voters.

There is a good reason why he commands such high fees....that the likes of Vague and Shameron will never attain....because he has a powerful message and portfolio that is relevant today and for the future.
Tory central office will be listening to every word he says and Cameron will be worried what is coming next.

THX1138

March 30th, 2010 8:28pm Report this comment

If he's such a busted flush Fraser why are so many Co's inc HUGE Tory donor Paul Ruddock and his hedge fund Lansdowne Partners so desperate to sign him up for six figure speaking engagements?

TB is a class act that's why so many Co's on both sides of the Atlantic fight for his services.. And I'll tell you another thing my sources tell me that the W11 clique whatever they may say in public hugely admire & respect TB.. He was a winner in politics 3 elections and now he's winner in business and you little minnows bleat away while TB gets on the Gulfstream and good luck to him.

To quote Mrs T "Markets never lie" and the markets luv Tony Blair

In2minds

March 30th, 2010 8:31pm Report this comment

That's a wonderful picture, "lies this big". Also I agree with the idea that both Blair and Mandelson, are loathed by the public but loved by some sections of the MSM. And don't forget some of old Labour types can't stand them too, it's these people who may stay at home on polling day.

TomTom

March 30th, 2010 8:33pm Report this comment

A poster of Blair's homes, his shredded expenses, his overseas companies, his estimated wealth.....and the number of dead soldiers and the shoddy equipment and accommodation.

"If you seek his memorial, look around"

Pete

March 30th, 2010 9:07pm Report this comment

I agree with Fraser.

Tony Blair scares small children (mine). I'm sure dogs don't like him either.

Blair is also in danger of damaging his own earning power by getting involved.

2trueblue

March 30th, 2010 9:12pm Report this comment

Gosh what a fright I got tonight when I saw Tone orange on the TV. Not a smart move on Liebores part bringing back the snake oil salesman. He really is soiled goods and I cannot think what benefit he can bring to the Liebores election campaign.

What I am fed up about is that Liebore are getting a lot of free airtime whilst Brown refuses to name the date. He is using our money to do his electioneering and the media are too weak to say so. Also why should we pay the huge security bill for Blair whilst he is here at Liebores invitation?

Boudicca

March 30th, 2010 9:13pm Report this comment

I think Labour should ask Tony's wonderful wife to join him on the campaign trail. It is quite a long time since we have been reminded what a greedy, avaricious embarrassment she was. It would be wonderful to hear her telling us how much she admires the Gorgon.

That would be worth at least another 5% to the Tories.

SUSAN HILL

March 30th, 2010 9:16pm Report this comment

So one does wonder why Dave said he was the heir to Blair.
Doesn`t one ?

simon hb

March 30th, 2010 9:17pm Report this comment

Seriously, David? You think people "hadn't heard" of Blair prior to the 1997 election?

terence patrick hewett

March 30th, 2010 9:21pm Report this comment

So Tony Blair in his role as Master of Ceremonies from the film Cabaret has arrived to assure us that everything is beautiful, and that even the band is beautiful. But outside is the degeneracy and corruption of the Weimar Republic; the animal brutality of Kristallnacht; all the rottenness of the soul that leads to the gates of Auschwitz.

Kirsty Richards

March 30th, 2010 9:24pm Report this comment

Fraser, do you agree with what Blair said today, when he said Cameron has made the Tories too Liberal on Law and Order?

Ben

March 30th, 2010 10:03pm Report this comment

Terrific point by David Lindsay. I like it. Any comments Fraser?

Fragmeister

March 30th, 2010 10:09pm Report this comment

Are we sure it was Blair and not an android? The Blairobot has skin the same colour as Barbie and the speech circuits weren't programmed very well because some of the words came out in a strangely strangled way - constichensy anyone?

Jim

March 30th, 2010 10:26pm Report this comment

Well it certainly neutralises the attacks on Ashcroft anyway. The next Labour rent-a-mouth who spouts off about Lord A can just be asked to confirm whether Tone pays UK tax on all his worldwide income.

Moraymint

March 30th, 2010 10:28pm Report this comment

Bring him on. The guy's an ocean-going poseur; a girlie; a shyster. The British people have got him taped.

Blair's a liability to the Labour Party and the nation. He can only lose the Party votes. Wunnerful.

Sacre Bleu

March 30th, 2010 10:30pm Report this comment

He is here to embarass Ashcroft by paying up every penny of the taxes due on his global income over the last few years just to show how supportive he is of Gordo. I am sure he will include the global family income to boot - that should make a large contribution to filling the black hole. Expenses he will keep. On the other hand maybe he is coming to collect his half of the double act with Prescott in the Lords.

Hadrian

March 30th, 2010 10:39pm Report this comment

Tone may indeed be a 'class act' but the public are heartily sick of 'acts' and flasehood from their politicians and none sums it up so revoltingly as the millionaire, hasbeen P.M. still coining it in with his equally revolting spouse- though admittedly she at least still does turn her hand to some gainful, if grubby employment.Tone just lives off the baxks of the rest of us. And they have the temerity to slate the Tories for being 'rich kids'!! Unelected and disgraced former MPs and journos- it all adds up to exposing the lie that is Gordon Brown and his fresh moral compass. They're just desperate desperadoes.

PhilLaw

March 30th, 2010 10:45pm Report this comment

I wonder if he asked his pal George if he was allowed to poke his head above the parapet?
" Yo Blair ya better get rescuin' that scotch guy."
" Gosh G, why?"
" 'Cos Obama loathes him more than you do."

Matt H

March 30th, 2010 10:47pm Report this comment

Yes. He's so unpopular he won three General Elections. Well done everyone.

AndyinBrum

March 30th, 2010 10:54pm Report this comment

I wonder whether Tony came back to help Gordon, or whether in fact his appearance is designed to screw him completely?

THX1138

March 30th, 2010 11:05pm Report this comment

"Blair's return will be worth a good 2-3 points to the Tory lead."

Well not according a new poll in the Sun it isn't:

Whom do you rate as the better Prime Minister, Tony Blair or Gordon Brown?
Tony Blair (Prime Minister 1997-2007) - 50 per cent

Gordon Brown (Prime Minister since 2007) - 16 per cent

In practice, do you think Mr Blair's speech will...
Help Labour - 20 per cent

Harm Labour - 20 per cent

Make little or no difference either way - 52 per cent

http://is.gd/b7e41

If the TB came back the "heir" would be pooing himself !

Alan Douglas

March 30th, 2010 11:07pm Report this comment

"Would you buy a used (and useless)
clunking great fist from this man ?"

Alan Douglas

JohnPage

March 30th, 2010 11:11pm Report this comment

I can't believe Ali Campbell let the old profitmonger be pictured in front of a curtain with that slogan on it!

General Zod

March 30th, 2010 11:18pm Report this comment

No, Susan, one doesn't. The context was that he is the moderniser of his party's image, just as Blair was.

This line is being abused in a similar way to the "no such thing as society" line.

merlinthepig

March 30th, 2010 11:49pm Report this comment

Blair's return is good for no-one. For Labour he is a reminder of what went wrong, for the Conservatives of what will go wrong (if Dave continues to ape Blair in the way he does) and for the Lib Dems of the fact that no successful after dinner speakers from their ranks immediately spring to mind.

Bob Cat

March 30th, 2010 11:58pm Report this comment

A charlatan !

But what is Dave ? The man who inuduced his own parliamentarians to give Blair a standing ovation, entirely against parliamentary protocol. But then one charlatan warms to another, does he not ?

Simon Stephenson

March 31st, 2010 12:39am Report this comment

John Page : 11.11pm

"I can't believe Ali Campbell let the old profitmonger be pictured in front of a curtain with that slogan on it!"

Yes, and who wants to hear him boasting about the fish he's just caught?

Simon Stephenson

March 31st, 2010 12:47am Report this comment

Come to think of it, if he's true to form, the fish was probably something like a mackerel.

paul fitzgerald

March 31st, 2010 7:31am Report this comment

as harry would say 'loads of money'

stephen

March 31st, 2010 8:26am Report this comment

If Labour do start using Blair will Saatchi rehash the Devil Eyes posters; not only were they very effective but predicted the future with such accuracy/

PS If so should the back ground be airbrushed orange?

Naomi Muse

March 31st, 2010 9:17am Report this comment

Chilling - that's what it was, to hear Tony Blair address his old constituency in the mid-atlantic tones and looking plastic and disturbingly orange in hue.

Fraser, the point you make about reform of public services not being forthcoming was because of Gordon Brown, is right. Brown stopped any sort of reform from happening.

His appearance supporting Broon helps no-one.

Dorothy Wilson

March 31st, 2010 9:24am Report this comment

"The evil that men do lives after them; the good is oft interred with their bones" [Act 3, scene ii of Julius Caesar by William Shakespeare]

It seems Blair is trying to turn this on its head. Someone in the media should have the courage to point this out! And to dig into his financial affairs.

Catesby

March 31st, 2010 9:30am Report this comment

As fraser suggests, Blair might have been a great reforming PM if it had not been for Gordon Brown's constant obstruction.

So he must be campaigning for Brown through gritted teeth.

But is he really campaigning to keep Brown in office? To keep Mandelson in a job seems a more likely motive.

The Preston Park Panther

March 31st, 2010 9:33am Report this comment

The great British public voted for this oily, sanctimonious liar three times. Now, at least 30 per cent of them are going to vote for the Scotch thief. Interesting, isn't it?

Richard

March 31st, 2010 9:43am Report this comment

@ Dorothy

Why? He pays full UK tax and employes 130 people. He is surely the very model of a decent citizen or maybe you want to open up the wound that is Ashcroft?
Envy envy envy the give away signs of Tory infatuation.....with the role model Shameron has based his whole future on.

In the words of Maggie T "the markets never lie".....this man is a testiment to the truth you do not have to be a Tory to get on in life.

Maggie

March 31st, 2010 9:55am Report this comment

Blair's appearance in Sedgefield probably cost the British taxpayer £500,000 in security costs. We are paying through the nose for this sleazebag's grab at another five minutes in the limelight.
And if he's so popular and universally loved abroad as his fans claim, then stop his security when he goes abroad to save us another few £million.

JE

March 31st, 2010 9:56am Report this comment

He's a diversion, while Liebour rebuild Gordon Brown as the TrueGrit, un-phoney leader. They are busy polishing and burnishing the remodelled GB

Ghengis

March 31st, 2010 10:02am Report this comment

Frazer: Surely we can work that out unaided.

Lord Boyders

March 31st, 2010 10:05am Report this comment

Watching Tony Blair yesterday I felt that he was more responsible than any other politician for the decline in politics today. How can the public not be cynical about politicians, they elected a man who promises to be a man of the people, who turns out to be anything but. He had a huge majority and failed to make any substantial reforms. Subsequentialy he has run for the tills, followed by his former colleagues, who ape him but with rather less success. I do not believe that Cameron is self serving or motivated by selfish ambition in the manner of Blair but the public are fed up and tar him with the same brush.

Nicholas

March 31st, 2010 10:10am Report this comment

All this talk of Orangino Tony brings to mind an otherwise forgettable film, which seems appropriate. Tango and Cash.

We were all Tango-ed by this celebrity politician, he cashed in, and now his face is beginning to show his true soul. 13 years of misery, resentment and war is reflected in that face.

General Zod

March 31st, 2010 10:11am Report this comment

stephen, much as I applaud the reappearance of Saatchis on the scene, I don't remember the devil eyes posters making any difference at all.

Jim

March 31st, 2010 10:14am Report this comment

@Richard: But does he pay tax on all his worldwide earnings? It has been noted that his network of companies is so complicated that no-one (other than whoever set them all up) can see exactly where the money comes and/or goes. If he is as you say 'a model decent citizen' why does he need such a system of off shore companies and partnerships to manage his tax affairs?

The Guardian had good look at his financial network here: http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/dec/01/mystery-tony-blair-finances

Richard

March 31st, 2010 10:23am Report this comment

@Maggie
Surely you are joking £500,000 for 90 minutes.....wow! Forget Tony's earning power and investigate the earnngs of the security staff.

JONNY

March 31st, 2010 10:26am Report this comment

Can we please have a baboo teenage edition of Coffeehouse
for the likes of Richard to churn out their prepubic rubbish.

Matthew

March 31st, 2010 10:37am Report this comment

Here's the thing that's wrong about this article: there *was* no 'New Labour'.

It was the same old Labour, with a soap actor fronting them. Underneath, it was tax and spend, like it always is with the socialists.

Blair fooled most of the people for a while, but even the dim witted electorate spotted the gap between his rhetoric and what he actually delivered. But I wouldn't be surprised if they've already forgotten and the snake oil salesman helps get Labour voted back in.

Bickers

March 31st, 2010 11:03am Report this comment

Richard,
History shows us that us that soclialists (communists) are oftn the ones who can't wait to get their snouts in the tough. The last 12 years has been an object lesson in watching socialists preclaiming one thing then lining their pockets big time e.g. Blair, Byers, Hoon etc + Labour MP's were the ones who most abused the discredited expenses system - remember they've had a big enough majority over the last 12 yesrs to fix all the 'problems' they said they were going to fix in 1997. What happened - not a lot - public productivity down; wages and perks and overall costs have mushroomed - unsustainable!

echo34

March 31st, 2010 11:24am Report this comment

Richard,

you've changed your tune. When you single out Hague and Cameron as millionaire businessman, it's with animosity at their their greediness.

When it's Blair it alright, is it?

Howmany people do cam and hague employ. do they not pay their taxes?

Can't have it both ways, you've shown yourself to be a one eyed twerp yet again.

Major Plonquer

March 31st, 2010 12:27pm Report this comment

I like Tony Blair. I mean, y'know, look at how many people he, like, took out of poverty. OK so what if most of them were, y'know, in Iraq at the time.....

Simon Stephenson

March 31st, 2010 12:28pm Report this comment

Richard : 9.43am

What some high-earning UK residents do, if they have worldwide opportunities to make money, is to set up companies in tax havens, write the money-making contracts with the companies rather than directly with themselves, and then arrange for the companies to pay them salaries that are only a small part of the amounts received by the companies under the contracts.

All that's UK-taxable under this arrangement is the salary, and the amount retained by the tax-haven company -i.e. the difference between the fees and the salary -is taxable in the tax-haven.

Tell me, do you have a general opinion about people who structure their activities in this way to avoid paying tax? You know, an opinion about the process, irrespective of who's using it?

Or are you unwilling to be so definitive as this in case you might end up having to criticise one of your heroes? In which case you might care to ponder how your political strategy is 100% about scoring cheap points, and 0% about arguing for principles.

Richard

March 31st, 2010 12:37pm Report this comment

@Echo34,
Big difference TB is not in government and Vague and Shameron are.
If Vague stood down and then went on the northern stand-up circuit earning a fortune while employing 130 people paying full tax I would give him the thumbs up.....but he didn't do that he used his day job and Ashcrofts contacts to fuel his real job ...after dinner speaking and property speculation.
Cameron earns more from his trust funds than he does his salary which makes him different too!

Richard

March 31st, 2010 12:41pm Report this comment

@SimonStephenson
I will tell you my view when you tell me yours on Ashcroft.

echo34

March 31st, 2010 2:37pm Report this comment

Richard,

If he's not in government then maybe yesterday he should have kept his mouth shut then. Could have sworn that backdrop said Labour on it somewhere.

There's a similarity in all this. Tax dodging millionaire businessman/vicar campaigns for political party. have a guess who(and the answers not Ashcroft).

One question for you, why has beloved gordo not gone to the palace yet?

paulg

March 31st, 2010 2:51pm Report this comment

Richard@ lord ashcroft made his money before he went into politics, in industries and business that he founded and run; Phoney Blair made his money out of politics and the contacts he made whilst in it.

There is a world of difference, one is ethical, one is not, especially since phoney is profiting from the death and destruction to millions of people that he is directly responsible for.

Lord ashcroft made money from cleaning companies, phoney bair is making money from ethnic cleansing.

David Lindsay

March 31st, 2010 5:04pm Report this comment

simonhb, not as early as the 1992 one, no.

Richard

March 31st, 2010 5:06pm Report this comment

@echo34.
Is Andrew Marr in gov or Jeremy Paxman, Robinson, Randel or Dimbleby?
Gordon is busy running the country but be patient he will decide when he is ready.

@PaulG
I think you will find Ashcroft made the vast majority of his money by keeping hold of the tax he should have paid to Belize (thirty year tax exemption) and the UK.
Anyone can become rich if you don't pay tax.
Tony is making his money out of his intellect and vision allied to a very good way of communicating with people at all levels.
I don't see any problem with how Blair makes his money or Ashcroft for that matter as long as they pay tax the same as I do.
Before you mention it that includes Lord Paul.

Simon Stephenson

March 31st, 2010 6:38pm Report this comment

Richard : 12.41pm

"@SimonStephenson I will tell you my view when you tell me yours on Ashcroft."

My views on Lord Ashcroft's involvement with UK politics are pretty well known, if only you'ld read the comments I've made. I think that his non-domiciled status is incompatible with a right to be involved so influentially with a major UK political party.

But this view applies to Ashcroft because I hold it about non-domicile and political influence, period. And whether he was Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem or Monster Raving Loony it would apply equally in each case.

So now Richard, what's your opinion in this matter? Do you have a principle that you apply irrespective of political affiliation, or do you only get hot under the collar about miscreants of the non-Labour variety, and distinctly cool about the behaviour of Labourites, whatever they get up to?

TGF UKIP

March 31st, 2010 6:54pm Report this comment

Same question to you as Pete, Fraser. have you or any of the other hacks, other than the BBC, Indie and Times, got near enough to ask him how much he's given to Labour funds and whether or not he's now a non-dom.

Simon Stephenson

April 1st, 2010 12:48pm Report this comment

Richard : 11.50am

"@ Simon Stephenson, Read my post above yours....it seem we are in agreement, not sure that does my street cred much good or yours on here."

For us to be in agreement, Richard, you'ld have to confirm that you believe non-domiciled tax status is incompatible with active involvement in a UK political party. You've made it clear that you apply this principle, specifically, to Lord Ashcroft, so now all you have to do is to say that it would be a double-standard not to apply it also to Tony Blair, should he too have made complex corporate arrangements to prevent much of the earnings from his activities from being taxed in the UK.

Fair's fair, Richard, isn't it? Or do you Labourites have a multi-tier understanding of what's fair, depending on the political affiliation of whoever it is you are being asked to judge?

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