Labour falls below 30 with ICM

Chuck Unsworth

@ James

Care to post a source for your figures/observations on the marginals? Thanks.

Dehsinif Si Ruobal

The nine percent gap might at first sight look good for the Tories, but surely the message from this poll is that support for Labour/Lib Dems is at 53%, compared with 38% for the Tories. This compares with last autumn when the joint Labour/Lib Dem figure was around 45% (29%+ 16%)and the Tories were at around 41%.

There has been a 4% shift away from the Tories and this needs to be reversed ASAP.

annassasin

The Lib policy of "neither of the above two", is easy and effective on the weak.

TGF UKIP

If the poll was taken this week, I suspect it has a lot to do with Cable being the winner on Monday night.

The Tories are going to pay a very high price for Dave's nepotism.

marc antony

As I have consistently said, get yer cash on the Tories. Ironically, victory is almost assured because people are taking "a long hard look at labour". GB is running fast out of rabbits, and Mandy sold the hat.
Roll on the Balls moment.

Tiberius

You can take your tongue out of your cheek now, TGF, because I'm sure you know that Labour polling at under 30% leaves them out in the cold.

And while the pantomime horse may "win" the donkey derby, he won't clear the first fence in the National.

Poss LIb Dem Voter

not effective on the weak, but effective on the disillusioned. The quiet majority who have the option of two parties which are voting together in the HOC, rather than representing the opposing view. Where is our opposition? it is absent and that is why Lib dems are making an inroad. The quiet majority are starting to realise that the main political parties are chasing the vocal minority, and we want someone to listen to us, the quiet majority. Lib Dems are that option. The pound has become stronger after Vince's TV debate. May be the fears of a hung parliament are over-hyped.

THX1138

Poll Picking:

The new TNS BMRB pol showsl: CON 38%(-1), LAB 33%(+2), LDEM 19%(nc)

steve

hmmmm...Labour 29% Libdems 23%...its getting very close to the tipping point 24/28 --> 25/27 followed by an avalanche ?

Willie de Peepul

Not good enough. CMD has to get back up to around 43%. Major had a working majority in 1992. Look what had happened by 1997.

Oh, by the way, wasn't it one of Major's laws that the RMT fell foul of today? Oh, what a pity.

2trueblue

Vote Liberal and get Brown, again????

JW

In 1997 Labour polled 13.5m votes.........in 2001 it was 10.7m...... and in 2005 it as 9.5m votes.......with Blair.

After the last 2-3yrs, and with Brown heading things up they'll be lucky to poll 8m votes I think.
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My guess is that on a turnout of about 30m (66%) it will be roughly like this;

Tories > 10.75m (36%)
Labour > 8m (27%)
Lib-Dem > 8m (27%)
UKIP > 1.2m (4%)
Greens > 0.6m (2%)
BNP > 0.6m (2%)

Of course how this translates in to seats cannot be accurately guessed at.

Dorothy Wilson

"I suspect it has a lot to do with Cable being the winner on Monday night."

If Cable was taken to be the winner on Monday heaven help us. His agenda was based on his need to be liked. Anyone aspiring to be Chancellor in the current situation needs to take tough decisions and that may - and probably will - lead to him being disliked. Cable would have a nervous breakdown if he actually had to take tough decisions.

However, it says something about the mindset of the general public that they cannot take that on board.

oldtimer

@ Chuck Unsworth

One or two pollsters have examined the marginal seats in some detail - but relatively infrequently because of the cost. These have revealed a greater swing to the Conservatives than the national polls conducted at the same time - of the order of 1 to 2% as I recall. The best on line resources for polling are to be found at UK Polling Report (Anthony Wells) and at political betting.com (Mike Smithson).

CuttingEdge

Interesting article in the DT on YouGov "bias": http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7546322/YouGov-pollster-gives-Labour-an-unfair-advantage.html

I wonder how far adrift of reality YouGov were with their "weighting" on the London Mayoral Elections before they were forced to review their results. Anyone remember?

@marc antony - A Balls moment? I cannot think of anything more pleasurable than watching that insidious scum loosing his seat...if you throw in a few others like his wife and maybe Jacqui Smith, Election Night Special could potentially be more enjoyable than England lifting the WC in South Africa.

Fergus Pickering

On what basis, JW, do you predict that the Liddems will poll 27% of the vote? Wishful thinking? I haven't seen a poll anywhere that gives them that sort of turnout.

strapworld

Interesting line on Balls. I do hope Gove gos for the jugular.Putting politics before the safety of children is quite disgusting and has to be fully exposed.

Balls has got to be thrown out of Parliament but, of course, Brown will put him in the Lords. That is why Cameron must state that he intends to have a fully elected upper house within twelve months!

Chuck Unsworth

@ oldtimer

"One or two pollsters have examined the marginal seats in some detail - but relatively infrequently because of the cost."

Exactly. There's cause for optimism - I think - but there's not enough detailed work in that area to provide real justification. Still Ashcroft may have helped somewhat. I note also that Cameron is getting into the marginals in a big way.

Barbara

why are the equations for three parties only? Are there not other parties in the running. Ukip and the BNP might make big impacts in this election and should not be ignored. The media ignore them, the parties ignore them but they are there and they do have gathering support whether anyone likes it or not. They will make an impact come the election in many areas and this might just alter the final direction of this election and indeed if they are really successful make parliament more democratic by forcing open debate. At the moment we don't have that, we have secret deals, lies, and deceit. The question of the EU will arise, and Cameron will not be able to divert off it the public won't let him. They want out, and if he thinks he can dictate to them he's in for a shock, they'll just ignore him, has all member states have to agree any changes he hopes to make. There may be only one option to withdraw, there he would have 95% of the people's support, for that is what they want. Cameron will not find it easy for there is disent within his own party on this question, bothering with the hunting question could be seen as fickle when there are for more important things to debate.