Why the Tory lead is growing

Naomi Muse

Think you're right about the NI, Fraser, and about Cameron's need to stick to his instincts. Cameron then needs to find some strong people with excellent judgement to surround himself with and let the others go.

David Boycott

It is a pity to belittle the proposal to avoid increasing NI as teeny. The amounts concerned may be relatively small, but NI is the most pernicious tax of all: a hidden tax on jobs that condemns the low-skilled to perpetual unemployment.

We must hope that this is the first step towards abandoning all taxes on low-paid labour, so that we might have a chance of ending the welfare culture that the left-wing has created.

Boudicca

Perhaps he will also realise that immigration and the EU are not toxic issues that must be avoided at all costs. The country is Eurosceptic and angry that the Lisbon ConTreaty was ratified without the promised Referendum. Yet Cameron quietly acquiesced to it. We need a strong Eurosceptic position and a very firm commitment on immigration - including a commitment to deport foreign criminals and terrorists irrespective of their 'Human Rights.' The Common Law interest of the majority should take precedence.

Verityred

Labour fear Cameron, you can see it in their badly aimed and poisonous attacks on him. Cameron has done well.

Tyranosaurus

... and of course the Toy position on NI is not a tax cut, it is merely maintaining the status quo. Quite how Labour have managed to get away with defining it as a cut and thereby deflect attention from their plans to increase it is beyond me.

Irene

Fraser I disagree, I am glad he isn't arrogant and more of a control freak, haven't we had enough of that with the current shower.

I think what you see is what you get, an honest man with principles, manners and definite beliefs.

I only hope they haven't peaked too soon, I am sure labour have something up their sleeve, then again maybe not.

Slim Jim

The problem has been that Cameron has been playing to Labour's rules, and let's face it - they are cheats and play dirty! Then, along comes a policy announcement that blows Labour out of the water - no stealing, no triangulation! The best soundbite of all has come from a business leader (whose name escapes me) - 'why should we pay for Labour's profligacy with tax rises?' Highlight the £70,000 a year Diversity Officers and all the other hangers-on. Now, as Boudicca has stated, all that he needs is to use the same tactics with the other issues like immigration, etc. I reckon that the powder is not totally damp, and we'll get more surprises before the election.

JohnOfEnfield

It's great to see Brown making the fundamental strategic mistake of not going to the polls BEFORE the budget.

New Labour then had to declare their hand. "We will postpone all difficult decisions until after the election" even though this means INCREASING public expenditure and DOUBLING the National debt which they have already doubled.

This forces them on a tax and "investment" route, leaving the Tories with an open goal to kick at all the way to the general election on May 6 or June 3

anne allan

National Insurance should absorbed into income tax. It will give the electorate palpitations when they see the true extent of how little 'pocket money' is left to them once the government has hived off its share. And employers should print in bold on each pay slip what they are also contributing to government coffers for the privilege of providing jobs.
The name is deceptive - even after 60 years of this particular scam, most people do not realise that the money taken from their pay finances current expenditure; it is not accumulating into a nice health care and pension pot for their own use.

Richard

I don't believe ther has been a shift in public opinion. The polls when averaged out over the last 3 months are about the same.

There may have been a shift in media reporting or representation but the people are still either undecided or entrenched in their views.
There will be another swing in the polls before the election and maybe another one after that.....this is the nature of daily polling.
It will suggest that the polls next week will tighten as the media react to the public cry for more investigation of policies.
So far the Tories have gone largely unchallenged on their U turn on the deficit and cuts stance. The arguments on the fiscal policy have been put aside for now but they will come back to the table soon.
Business leaders have yet to explain if they would support an increase in VAT over NI.
Cameron has opened himself up to the charge of not saying the same things in public and private.....where is he on the Chris Grayling comments.....why has he not commented this morning....make no mistake if it had been a comment regarding Jews or Black people staying B&B's he would be flushed out within hours of the papers hitting the news stands.
Has the party changed or is it a smoke screen.....this I suggest is damaging and the politics will kick in Tuesday morning again.
Cameron is a lot better at losing poll leads than he is at building them.

Frank Leader

With Labour's pathetic record over 13 years the Tories shoul be 30 points ahead.

TGF UKIP

Rah, Rah, Rah, Dave, Dave, Dave! Back to being Editor of the house mag, I see Fraser, so you keep shaking those pom poms. It's what Speccie Editors are there for.

Couldn't help noticing though that in both your guises you couldn't help having a not so sly dig at Daft Danny and his "For God's sake don't frighten the horses" disciples. On the other hand though, I note that you still couldn't bring yourself to mention the Mekon even though he must be the prime culprit for all the Blue Labour nonsense you clearly hold in such well-deserved contempt. Don't know what he has on you, Fraser, but you're obviously scared shitless of him for not once can I remember you even mentioning him over these past few years.

Indeed, I guess it must be your sense of self-preservation which makes you keep trotting out his entirely fallacious "brand decontamination" spin so regularly.

Meanwhile, although I know you to be too infatuated with your beloved Cam to care what he's really about, other more sceptical and less enamoured souls may find this link to the Taxpayers Alliance illuminating:

http://www.taxpayersalliance.com/bettergovernment/2010/03/the-conservatives-plan-to-flood-local-politics-with-thousands-of-taxpayer-funded-radical-activists.html

Tim W

I agree that Cameron is versatile and not arrogant but I think it is silly to say you want him to be more of a control freak.

He has been brilliant at his job but the major negative he has is that he has damaged his relationship with many activists and party members.

If this was due to modernisation, such as talking more about 'soft' issues then I have no problem. But too often it has been unnecessary - take Joanne Cash, All-Women shortlists etc. These things bring no benefit to the Party and in many cases are the opposite of modernisation. A less bossy centralised approach to running the party, similar to his policies for the public services, is what's needed. Even if at times Cameroons are right and the members wrong, they need to be more friendly and sympathetic.

I may be directing this at Cameron wrongly. It should probably be directed at CCHQ.

Ben

Fraser is crowing too soon. The Tories haven't won the war, they've just come up with a clever wheeze.

If Labour had panicked (as they did after Osborne's IHT coup in 2007), and reversed their NIC policy, Fraser would be right to crow. It was the retreat that did for them in 2007.

But this time Labour are sticking to their guns and are now in a powerful strategic position as the party that is serious about cutting the deficit through a policy of growth, taxation and efficiency savings.

The NIC rise of twelve pounds a month will not stop a company hiring a single person, or discourage a single unemployed person from accepting a job offer. But spraying twelve quid out to everyone as a giveaway is money down the drain. It just adds to the perception that the Tories are not big players in sorting out the economy.

And it's the economy overall - not twelve quid a week in your pocket - that will ultimately decide the election.

Cameron's major mistake was in not cancelling Osborne's 2007 IHT tax cut once the economy turned nasty and public opinion turned against the super-rich.

Instead, he has pulled off a sub-Blairite "triangulation" wheeze. He thinks that the public will be fooled because he has "balanced" the tax cut for the rich with a cut, in Osborne's cheeky words, "for the many". It won't work. The public are not fools. They won't trade the overall health of the economy and the public services for twelve quid.

Now if only Cameron had had the moral courage to scrap the IHT cut and ditch Ashcroft two years ago, he might be in a stronger position now. But it's too late now.

paulg

at the heart of every conflict is deception but as we can't tell lies labour had to decieve themselves.

Timing is all important and you must choose the ground you want to fight on. This could only be done once labour had been pushed, pushed to commit itself to a budget;leaving their position untenable, illogical and irrational. The economy is never labour strong point and, mired in a economic mess, it will be their grave yard.

What ever Camerons faults strategy is not one of them.

Dehsinif Si Ruobal

I am sure that next week's opinion polls will show that Chris Grayling has single handedly managed to take the Tory lead back to 4 points. With friends like these who needs enemies!

echo34

Nice to see Richard and Ben sitting in their red corner with their fingers in their ears.

La la la la la la... not listening...la..la..la..la..la..

Someone tell them the parrot is dead.

Woody

A very positive and balanced article Fraser and much needed after all the negative stuff.
Thank goodness the conservatives have managed to pull it round but it is going to be a very long five weeks.
A message for all the 'shadow cabinet' if they read this blog - "engage brain before opening thee gob."

Ex-Tory voter

Dave has indicated he's not going to whack up taxes (at least not just yet), which is a good start. Unsurprisingly, this mildly conservative move is welcomed. If he would only offer us a referendum on the EU (in or out?), address the problems of immigration (deporting illegals, criminals and failed asylum seekers and stopping new arrivals) and reaffirm that this is a basically Christian country which tolerates other religions he'd be home and hosed. I'd be voting for him if he offered those policies.

Dorothy Wilson

Dehsinif Si Ruobal: You are totally wrong there. Outside the Metro-elite most people agree with Grayling. It's strange how some people cannot understand how pressure for so-called "human rights" by one section of the community so often impinges on the rights of others.

Fergus Pickering

Gay people do have this tendency to think the whole world revolves around them, don't they. And that their sexual preferences are at the very front of everyone's mind. I agree with the runaway slave that every man has a right to put his arse where he wants. But shut up about it, won't you? I don't want a blow-by-blow, as it were. I doubt if Chris Grayling's views, which, as it happens, I don't share, will bother many people. We shall see, of course.

Ben

Dorothy Wilson, you've it the wrong way round. It's the faith communities whose demand for more rights than the rest of us (eg to be exempt from discrimination laws) that is impinging on the rights of the rest of us.

Ben

echo34 - you're crowing now, but a couple of weeks ago your comrades (along with the usual suspects posting on the DT comments pages) were full of gloom and braying for Cameron's head. It won't take much from Labour's attack dogs to get you all depressed and confused about your message again. Are you rabid Thatcherite tax-cutters or friendly green society-healers? Who rules, Hannan or SamCam? I can't wait for the phony war to end and battle to commence.

echo34

Ben,

stop the whingeing and the moaning. I seem to remember you and your type jumping on the happybus a couple of weeks ago as well.

Now it's all turned to the brown stuff again, you trolls come out with these long puffed up pieces about what your 4 year old thinks and how bad the tories are going to do in the GE.

I challenge you to post one positive post on what labour have to offer us. Go on, have a think..

echo34

Ben,

would that be a 13 year phony war you're referring to?

Leon Vestey

Who are you kidding? Dave is not going be the PM. He and his toxic pals refuse to even mention the things that concern the electorate:immigration; overpayment of managers;failure of the education system; our insultingly low pensions;the NHS scam;
the PFI con and so on ad infinitum.
Look to see many, many BNP faces in parliament post-May. (And do not think that his this thrlls me either).

Ridcully

Ben: Would those "attack dogs" be the same ones who came up with that brilliant idea of depicting DC as Gene Hunt?

JohnAnt

Abolish NI,raise income tax to compensate, promising to lower it again before the next election but one. Result - tax clarity, fiscal honesty.

Tony

I am disgusted at the lack of condemnation within the Party over the Chris Grayling comments. I was being persuaded that voting Conservative was the way to go, but am utterly appalled that such blatantly homophobic comments are being tolerated.

Major Plonquer

Its quite simple really. So don't say I didn't tell you so.

Labour will announce a referendum on the EU in their manifesto. They'll win the election by a landslide.

Next Labour will 'modernise' just like the Tories. There will be no more throwing of Nokias at Number 10 staff. No. The modern Gordon Brown will throw iPhones instead.

You read it here first.

Major Plonquer

I agree with Richard. Cameron is a lot better at losing poll leads than he is at building them.

That explains why he has ONLY an 11 point lead. If he offers us the referendum on Europe the people tell him we want his lead would be 40 points.

What a tosser.

Yarnesfromhorsham

Surely when Governemnts cock it up its the Governemnt that should take the hit. Reduce the size of Government. Leave money in the public's pocket makes sense. Is this Rocket Science.

Minnie Ovens

"He called in the Americans, M&C Saatchi, came up with a harder focus"

Mr Nelson,am I missing something here or have Maurice and Charlie changed nationalities?