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Monday, 5th April 2010

The Tories are above forty and have a ten point lead in YouGov's final pre-campaign poll

James Forsyth 10:04pm

The final pre-campaign YouGov poll has just been released and it shows the Tories over forty percent and ahead by ten percent, numbers that I suspect the party would have taken back in January and would be delighted to have repeated on election day. Even on a uniform national swing these results--Tories 41, Labour 31, Lib Dems 18--would produce a Tory majority, albeit a small one.

This poll is an Easter one and so should be treated with a certain amount of caution. But it does rather suggest that ICM’s numbers—which showed the Tory lead down to four points—are out of sync with the trend in the polls. There will be a slew of polls in the next few days and so we’ll soon have a clearer idea of whether YouGov or ICM is closer to the mood of the moment. 

 

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Fragmeister

April 5th, 2010 10:10pm Report this comment

Brown off to the Palace tomorrow, Brenda off to Balmoral tonight?

Scott Mills

April 5th, 2010 10:14pm Report this comment

Richard, have it, eat that, whatever you like...Gordon call that election now, dare you. Come on you Blues!!!!

Snowman

April 5th, 2010 10:21pm Report this comment

James, forget the yo-yo polling nonsense, it makes one’s head spin. The only poll that matters is the one on the day.

Whoever wins the next election will have to face a five-year stint far worse than the time of the blitz, and without the help from the Winstons of this world. The party, or parties if I’m right that Labour and the amendable bunch are to form a coalition in a hung Parliament, will get buried forever sorting the mess out. Hopefully, the Tories defeat will also see the end of Dave, and the country will get to choose next between a decent conservative Tory party, and whatever else comes out the remnants of the two losers.

Anyone reckon I wrong?

JONNY

April 5th, 2010 10:27pm Report this comment

accompanied no doubt
by the Band of the Scots Guards playing
Dead March in Saul

Tom Pride

April 5th, 2010 10:28pm Report this comment

The struggle commences. If you cannot stand for our (Coffee House) Principles in the face of the onslaught, then at least have the confidence to get off your belly and onto your knees.

Lizzy

April 5th, 2010 10:34pm Report this comment

Nope I think the Tories will have a working majority. I've always thought they will win (wait ofr egg to splatter all over my face).
Having said that it would be mixed blessings if Labour won or held the balance of power. It would be a hellish period for the people but a richly deserved justice if they had to face the scorched earth policies they have recklessly pursued without any concern for the good of the nation. Let them clear it up and for once not leave it to the Tories.
Once they are defeated (and they will be) it will be a bloodbath in the Labour party and I predict it will split into a small extreme left grouping with the moderates flailing about trying to find a new way forward.

HairyNoddy

April 5th, 2010 10:36pm Report this comment

It's probably just Yougov telling porkies again, making sure that the millions of immigrants, welfare recipients and public servants get out to vote.

Boudicca

April 5th, 2010 11:03pm Report this comment

Hopefully, only 30 days until Labour is consigned to the dustbin of history and Gordon lives his nightmare of being ejected from No.10 without ever winning an election.

Bring it on.

Diane C - London

April 5th, 2010 11:12pm Report this comment

As appealing as it is to contemplate Labour getting back into power and having to face the consequences of their profligacy, the damage they will then continue to inflict upon this country until they inevitably are thrown out would be even more disastrous than it is now. Just imagine what would have happened if Kinnock had won in 1992 - for starters he would have adopted the Euro. We have much to be grateful to John Major for ...

TrevorsDen

April 5th, 2010 11:31pm Report this comment

Guido picks up this quote from Obama - "The last thing you want to do is raise taxes in the middle of a recession because that would just suck up more demand out of the economy and put businesses in a further hole."

In my ever so humble opinion whenever labour quote some alleged good thing they have done then the size of the deficit and ever growing national debt should be quoted at them. Any fool (and he did) can govern by simply spending with no care where the money comes from - or how top pay it back.

I came I spent I borrowed.

RKing

April 5th, 2010 11:51pm Report this comment

Hurray at last it will be time to put the old man out to grass.
When you get up to retiring age your mindset is to leave things for the time being. You don't want things to change and you don't want to make changes for change sake. I know I've been there.
And you can see this happening to Old Gordon, let's leave the economy.... it'll get better. Just trot out the same old non-ideas and hope that the voters will go along with it.

He's old, he should be winding down not the country.
Go gracefully old man and look forward to the day that you might one day become a grandad.
I think Grandad Gordon of Grandpa Brown will really suit you!

Number7

April 5th, 2010 11:55pm Report this comment

Election May 6th (BBC).

FIRE UP THE QUATTRO

echo34

April 6th, 2010 12:31am Report this comment

Gordons calling of the election today is a labour damage limitation exercise, if they waited another month, things could be worse...

Ron Todd

April 6th, 2010 5:48am Report this comment

Lizzy I agree in part.
Brown faced with clearing up the mess would fail, he would continue spending for what he saw as short term party political gain.

Sooner or later a Tory government will have to sort out the mess it is likely the required measures will make them unpopular for a long time. The longer they have to wait to sort out the mess the bigger the mess will be and the worse the medicine needed.

Andrew S

April 6th, 2010 5:51am Report this comment

Snowman - you are wrong. First task of any Lab/Lib coalition is electroal change that will forever marginalise a right leaning party. It might satisfy your principles to have a genuine right wing choice - but it will be as meaningful as a Liebour election pledge.

Vulture

April 6th, 2010 7:40am Report this comment

Well, we're off ...and so are the BBC, who as I write are running their first Liebore party political broadcast, courtesy of John 'I'm a good socialist' Humphries on Today: an old dear in a hospital saying she loves the NHS under Liebore...a gay financier saying Liebore have made the world safe for gays...drunken girls in Cardiff say they can drink all day and nite thanx to Liebore and so on.... O brave new world!

Vulture

April 6th, 2010 8:16am Report this comment

BBC Bias Part II-

The Today Programme continues its Liebore political broadcast by interviewing that grinning, nepotistic, idiotic creep Neil
Pillock...talking abt how to win elections.

Well, he should know.Awwwwwwwwrrrrriiiggght!!

Paul B

April 6th, 2010 8:24am Report this comment

Go you mighty Blues. Chelsea beat Man U. DC kicks Gordons ass`.

Jabba the Hut calls an election as his party increases Petrol duty at the time prices are already extorinate. Thatsa good for growth & jobs eh Jabba?

Richard

April 6th, 2010 8:38am Report this comment

Call me Dave must bve very worried now....He needed to have a far bigger lead than this going into the election.

Real pressure now not the tame interviews. Shaneron has his date with Paxo to come as has Vague.
The calculators will be out now poor old Oik's figures are not what anyone would call robust.
Wash-up wiil see Tories bringing down the anti bribery bill on the orders of the CBI ...plenty of gaffs to come form the usual suspects.......It really is finely balanced.

Bring it on!

Moraymint

April 6th, 2010 10:44am Report this comment

Vulture
April 6th, 2010 8:16am

... and not only that, Kinnock proved himself to be the gross economic illiterate that we've always known him to be - along with the rest of the Marxist nutters that have been on the Downing Street bridge this past 13 years.

Kinnock bellowed on about the Labour government presiding over the most spectacular economic boom in recorded history (?), whilst (again) laying the blame for the inevitable, mother-of-all busts at the door of the Americans, or the "global economy" or anywhere else but Gordon Brown's flat feet.

Gordon Brown, in all his economic genius, explicitly engineered an unprecedented, private- and public-sector debt-fuelled binge-bomb of biblical proportions that, when it detonated, struck at the very heart of the economic foundations of this nation.

For windbag Kinnock to bang on, as only he can, that we should now all be eternally grateful to the most incompetent, mendacious and lily-livered prime minister that this country has ever had the misfortune to have foist upon it, (Brown remains unelected and will be unceremoniously turfed out of office as a treasonous imposter), is a little bit rich to say the least.

Vote for Labour. Vote for ruin.

Not long to go now, thank God.

Richard Bouldingr

April 6th, 2010 10:45am Report this comment

So its on....Tory Plastic v Labour Granite

Chuck Unsworth

April 6th, 2010 10:54am Report this comment

Hello Richard

You still here? Time's running out, you know. Best book that flight, eh?

Fearless Frank

April 6th, 2010 12:49pm Report this comment

Can't we get Kinnock on-air every day?
Every word of Welsh wind-baggery blows a few more voters out of the labour camp.

Marcher Baron

April 6th, 2010 6:03pm Report this comment

Didn't Kinnock say this morning that Brown had steadfastly and firmly led the country into recession?

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