Win one for the Gipper
Daniel Korski 4:43pm
A Cameron government has the potential to change Britain - but not much else beside. A Tory loss, however, could change much more.
The Cameron Tories are a bellwether for Conservative movements in a number of countries, including the US. If they succeed, they will prove a powerful model for many moderate Republicans who believe their party is in an earlier post-Major phase - angry, divided and negative.
If David Cameron fails to defeat Gordon Brown, few Republicans will look across to their British cousins for inspiration. The party will eschew any modernising project for a while longer and stick to their equivalent of IDS.
In this scenario, the Republicans will pick up some congressional seats and governorships. But they will lose the next race for the White House and struggle to take a majority in the House of Representatives.
For elections, even in America, are won in the middle - even if the US middle is well to right of any European middle. Such politics makes activists fulminate - Coffee House is testament to that - but they are "the only thing that works", to quote what a senior Shadow Cabinet member told me recently.
Sure, activists have to be placated - you need them to vote and work to get others to vote. But it is far more important to grab middle-of-the-road voters - even if you come at them from the right.
To work though, such right-hailing, middle-grabbing politics need to be formulated by sensible-looking, human-sounding people. People who don't look like they would foam at the mouth. People who disagree with their opponents but who do not hate them or wish them ill. People like David Cameron.
If, however, the Tory leader fails on 6 May, it may take the Republican Party a while longer to accept this basic fact of 21st century politics. To the detriment of the US. So Dave, go out there and win one for the Gipper.



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denis cooper
April 8th, 2010 5:15pm Report this commentI suppose you know what a bellwether is.
cityboozer
April 8th, 2010 5:23pm Report this comment"To work though, such right-hailing, middle-grabbing politics need to be formulated by sensible-looking, human-sounding people. People who don't look like they would foam at the mouth. People who disagree with their opponents but who do not hate them or wish them ill. People like David Cameron."
So why have the Browns and Ballses got away with it for so long? Is it just double standards in the media or something else?
General Zod
April 8th, 2010 5:40pm Report this commentI predict you will enrage the resident foaming mouth brigade by this post, Daniel.
Ferdinand
April 8th, 2010 5:40pm Report this commentMore weirdness for the Sorosian think-tank world. Why should UK politics be conducted for the benefit of American "centrists" (the type of people who support mass immigration, "colour revolutions" and other things of which George Soros approves)?
Right On
April 8th, 2010 5:43pm Report this commentI doubt a Cameron victory will make a dramatic change in Republican strategy. The biggest impact will be whether some more moderate voices are able to become prominent without alienating the base.
The way Marco Rubio has hammered Charlie Crist suggests that the GOP are not even close to thinking about moderate leadership - which won't be a bad thing if they can form a coherent narrative and promote strong leaders (Rubio, Rick Perry, Paul Ryan, Gresham Barrett if he wins the Governorship in South Carolina, John Thune, Rob Portman if he wins in Ohio are just a few).
They need to distance themselves from the big government era of Bush and re-establsih themselves as the party of small government and fiscal responsibility.
Nothing that happens on May 6th will change that.
Verity
April 8th, 2010 6:05pm Report this commentIs Daniel Korski really suggesting that the American Republicans look to the British "Conservatives" (soi-meme) for guidance? If so, this is one of his sillier flights of fancy.
HairyNoddy
April 8th, 2010 6:19pm Report this commentThe success of the Cameronians is down to the success of Labour. Labour conned the country into believing their lies whilst simultaneously bankrupting it and plotting against it (mass immigration and transfer of power to the EU).
Cameron failed to attack Labour and failed to draw our attention to their many failings. For this failure to provide effective opposition, he deserves some of the blame for the country's current situation. Far from attacking Labour he seems to want to re model the Conservatives along leftist liberal lines, and has alienated large numbers of the Conservative party faithful in doing so.
I think that any foreign right wing opposition should learn from Cameron's mistakes: stay united, stay true to their traditional values and keep drawing public attention to the failings of the left wing government.
paulg
April 8th, 2010 6:44pm Report this commentI thought you said you were off to some big conferences: NATO, E.U etc; don't tell us your invite never turned up!
Wight Tory
April 8th, 2010 7:00pm Report this commentYou could go with the fact that under the left's guise, this country is in a mess, when in truth they had a blank canvas to work with. Left, right, middle or extremes either way isn't the whole pictures is it? Somebodies wrong in another's correct, and that's what's being voted upon. Its who is trusted to do the correct thing with the mess we have.
Labour will say, they are like the man at the telephone junction, wires everywhere and its them who knows what goes where...The Tories will say look at the mess, are you sure you know what your doing? Leave it alone before you mess it up some more... The crowd looking in have to decide who do the believe?
This situation is unique, one choice to decide, the selected will do their thing and the rejected will say its wrong, even though the country said they were on May 6th.
Cameron really needs this VAT thing to blow up in Browns face, Hammond needs to visit the Civil Servants who are dissecting the books and show them, then get them on side by stating the Conservatives are right. Do that and the country will have clarity, the Labour ace has been trumped and the waste issue will cement the vote. America and the rest of the world might broadly follow this election as a guide to future tactics, but as a choice, the UK public just want somebody to believe in...
Dave B
April 8th, 2010 7:28pm Report this commentI think you'll find that most of the 'Cameron' platform, was instigated by IDS.
perdix
April 8th, 2010 7:45pm Report this commentIf Cameron fails on May 6 it will be down to the distortions in the British electoral system.The comparison with the USA is naive.
Holly ......
April 8th, 2010 7:52pm Report this commentSad sad news about Malcolm McClaren.
I loved his contribution to my memories,
through his music.
Will J
April 8th, 2010 8:28pm Report this commentThat picture is quite an unfortunate shot: "Con".
Frank P
April 8th, 2010 8:37pm Report this commentMore borelix from Korkscrew.
Yow Min Lye
April 8th, 2010 9:32pm Report this commentI disapprove of the EU and want out of it; but I don't hate our EU Commissioners or wish them ill. Neither do I foam at the mouth (or I wasn't last time I passed a mirror).
Therefore, can I and millions like me stop being patronised by so-called 'centrist pro-Europeans' who are meanwhile selling my country down the river.
Therefore,
Snowman
April 8th, 2010 10:19pm Report this commentDaniel, you've lost it. A connection between the fate of the Tories and the Republicans? You drunk penning this nonsense?
JONNY
April 8th, 2010 10:24pm Report this commentIf there is a Tory link with the Republicans they should cut it.
Obama remains the only contender over here. The rest are scatter-gun.
Bob Cat
April 8th, 2010 11:27pm Report this commentWin one for the Gipper ? Who was/is this Gipper ?
Ahhh....Yes......... RONALD REAGAN - the Great, no less.
Would that be the same Reagan who won the Presidency in 1980 winning every state bar West Verginia, Minnesota and Georgia and re-elected in 1984 winning every state bar Minnesota ?
Yep that's him. That well known Dave style hoodie huggin' Social Democrat.
Get a life ! Or more to the point even a vague political and historical understanding.
Hysteria
April 9th, 2010 12:32am Report this commentWTFFFF?
comparing DC to RR?
Vulture
April 9th, 2010 9:03am Report this commentBob Cat is quite right: Ronald Reagan was a right-wing Republican in tune with the sound conservative instincts of the vast majority of Americans, not a metropolitan Marxist like Barry Obarmy.
BY this post Mr Korski demonstrates quite conclusively that though he may know the ins and outs of Baroness Ashton, he knows less than nothing about the US or its politics. Would we had a genuine Gipper rather than dopey Dave.
djw2009
April 9th, 2010 10:17am Report this commentIf both parties stand for the same thing, then there is no democracy. This sort of centrism, driven by a left-wing media, has hollowed out democracy. The Telegraph and the Spectator have been screeching all week about the need to vote conservative to save £15 in N.I. being imposed on jobs - when it comes down to trivial sums it is clear that all the politicians in both main parties could just as easily be in the other party. Daniel Korski, if you believe in this technochratic post-democratic world, why don't you go the whole hog and recommend abolishing elections too? Actually I think revolution is the only real conservative way today. I would love to man the barricades myself, given the chance.
The Aged P
April 9th, 2010 1:33pm Report this commentSo in essence the GOP should choose the candidate selected by NYT, WaPo and the alphabet networks, just as they did in 2008 when they came up with centrist McCain...didn't he do well!!!!!
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