Nick Clegg: the Hans-Dietrich Genscher of Britain

Vettekulla

This, Labour 276 seats; Conservatives 245 seats; Lib Dems 100 seats; Others 29 seats, forecast from the Sun's poll is the best possible result for the Tories. They can stand aside as Labour and the Lib Dems squabble amongst themselves while the nation's finances and economy go down the tubes forcing another election which the Tories will win with a commanding majority.

Fearless Frank

he will support the party voters have been seen to support...
Support measured in number of votes or number of seats?
Room for manouevre here, perhaps.

teledu

Cameron ought to ask Clegg if he would still support a referendum on the UK's membership of the EU, (as Clegg said he preferred when cowardly dodging the LibDem manifesto commitment to a referendum on an EU constitution).
If Clegg says no, then he can be shown up as a hypocrite, liar and chancer.
If he says yes, the Lib Dems would support a bill to have a referendum on our EU membership, then the tories, if in opposition, should try and get a bill to have a such a referendum. Clegg may well be forced to behave "democratically" and allow such a referendum. How ironic if a surge in LibDem support could lead to the very policy (leaving the EU) that would have won the election for the milquetoast Cameron Conservatives.
Better still, Cameron should now state at the next debate that, he agrees with Nick and will guarantee an in/out referendum if the Tories are returned to power. How could Nick argue against it without appearing a liar and a hypocrite?
Trouble is, David Cameron doesn't believe in democracy and letting the people have trhere say enough to follow this route.

Vulture

Genscher was the fat, jug-eared, unacceptable face of Proportional Representation.

Herr Korski assumes that everyone knows who this man was. I suspect that few do. Genscher was the long-time head of the German Lib. Dems. - the FDP. His little party remained in power for years as a minority partner of alternating CDU (Conservative) and SPD (Social Democratic) Governments. As the saying went : 'Ob CDU oder SPD - Genscher bleibt Minister'.[Whether CDU or SPD Genscher stays a Minister].

In other words, he was the tail that wagged the Dachshund. No principles, no ideas beyond retaining power - yes, Genscher sounds a great role model for Clegg.

Keith McBurney

Nope. Committed to proper PR, Clegg will if necessary prefer to side with the other party with most votes, not seats. Hence he would only give a minority Labour Govt conditional support on the constitutional front with publically commited guarantees on parliamentary, electoral and party reform. Hence GB's latter day conversions.

Frrgus Pickering

This is sily. We know the swing is NOT uniform, don't we? Weren't the Tories going to win 74 Labour seats in nthe marginals. That would leave them as the largest party. However, I will bet anybody who likes to take me up on it, that the Libdams will not poll 30% in the Election. £100? Who is willing to put his money where his mouth is? I thought not.

Jonathan Hall

Vettekulla: I can see the logic in your argument, but I think you are forgetting voting reform. Labour has promised a referendum on AV and the Lib Dems will hold them to it. So if we have a hung parliament, I fear this will be the last ever General Election held under the current 1st past the post system.

Of course, Labour likes AV, because whilst it makes it more difficult (but not impossible) for Labour to win an outright majority, it will prevent the Tories for governing for a generation or more. Indeed, faced with the prospect of AV (and the public will vote for electoral reform) the Tories should push for a referendum that would also include outright PR – because at least the latter holds out the prospect of the Tories forming some future coalition GVN with future centre-right parties. AV would simply perpetuate the big 3 and the Liberals will always shore up Labour, rather than join forces with the Tories.

On other option, would be to push for an English parliament.

Gashead

Regarding the post election negotiations and your poiny about the Clegg V Brown bad relationship.

It won't be a factor- that post-elecetion scenario will be "business not personal".

Labour and Lib Dems are of the centre/ centre left (with a significant number of members and supporters having defected to them from labour via the SDP).

Labour give the Lib dems more of the electoral and constitutional reform that they want.

If Labour are the biggest party by 1 and can achieve a majority with the Lib Dem votes......there will be a Lib - Lab coalition.

IanH

Nick has been asked on several occasions whether that is by seats or percentage of vote. He has side-skipped the question with an air of affront for the usual Libdim reason he wants it both ways.

Sir Graphus

Whatever "Honest" Nick Clegg says, he'll never form a coalition with or support the Tories. If the Tories are the biggest party, "Not-like-the-other-two" Nick will make the most cursory of negotiations with the Tories, announce "sorry, he wasn't being reasonable", and form an alliance with Labour.

I actually think Clegg's best move would be to announce he'd only form a coalition with Labour if Brown resigned.

Nicholas

Vettekula, won't happen. If Labour somehow manage to retain power we will be stuck with them forever. The whole Labour party is a sack of ferrets, has been for some time, but none of the in-fighting, intriguing, plotting or attempted coups have dislodged the odious slug slithering about inside No.10.

They are tribal. Their cause is to prevent the Tories winning and they would ally themselves with the Devil to do that. They believe the end (socialist utopia - actually dystopia) is justified by any means. They have managed to entrench in the public perception a mythic, demonised vision of the Tories (q.v. Izzard) that goes beyond any legitimate challenge to policies and ideology. Why are they still being allowed by the media to bleat on about Thatcher after 13 years in power for heaven's sake?

Brown promises the public a referendum on electoral and constitutional reform. That promise will be broken, like the Lisbon Treay promise, because Brown and his henchmen have learned that they can, literally, get away with anything. As soon as they have power they will accelerate the dismantling of the House of Lords, currently the only check and balance to their authoritarian insanity; they will reform the voting system to prevent any possibility of their power being challenged and we will see another surge of liberty infringing laws cloaked as anti-extremist, child protecting, anti-hate, equality and fairness cant. They will be bold and desperate.

Anybody watching Brown during the debate should have been struck by his constant use of the phrase "I want". He has an implacable belief in his own infallibility, he is arrogant and vindictive. He has exactly the qualities of a Mugabe. He is utterly ruthless and quite prepared to lie, dissemble, cheat and bully to get his own way, as we have seen over the last two years of the "end to spin". The man is an embryonic dictator, egocentric, fatally flawed and a menace to free society.

If the popularity of Clegg gives Brown another chance to cling to power don't delude yourself that anytime soon a "true Conservative messiah" is going to appear to save us or that Brown's government will fall from grace over the economy.

Last year's local government and Euro elections demonstrated just how much disdain there was for New Labour and the opposition parties should have used those results to force a General Election, insisting that Brown had no mandate to govern. The chance was missed because the Tories are still playing some stupid, last century, gentlemanly parliamentary game. You could see that with Gove on QT, - ultra-reasonable, courteous but utterly lambasted by the leftist sharks.

The right in this country (England) are in a huge majority but they have no teeth, no popular leader and all communications machinery is in the hands of the Left.

Michael Booth

Nick Clegg as Marlene Dietrich...

'Voting Lib-Dem again, never wanted to...
Vot am I to do
I can't help it...'

teledu

Nicholas: Excellent post. You should be offered the chance to write an article on these lines in The Spectator proper. Your sentiments are shared by many in this country (England) I'd guess and by an even higher percentage amongst Spectator readers.

2trueblue

Jonathan Hall, that may be our only solution, an English parliment. After all we are the largest area in the UK and the least represented. If Liebore get in again under any circumstance our economy will be totally wrecked. The signs right now ar pretty grim and so many of our problems on the economic front are being put aside for the present which is very dangerous. We will not find out until after the election what the true situation is and by then maybe it will be too late.

2trueblue

Forgot to say, if Cameron promised a referendum on the EU than we would not be having all this chatter.
We know that ALL of Liebores promised are written in sand and will not be fulfilled, and if Clegg will not be clear on the issue the Cameron has in his gift to blow it all wide open. Does he want it badly enough? If so it is a real vote winner.

Captain Christy

Was it not Nick Clegg who thought the state pension was " about thirty quid " a week ?
Surely Cameron can expose this con man.

Keith McBurney

Re my earlier comment, it appears i might be wrong. See the comment from John Ward on the Opendemocracy OurKingdom site article "UK Election: Has Clegg Hung 'Em article on 17 Apr at http://www.opendemocracy.net/anthony-barnett/has-clegg-hung-em

Wyrdtimes

@Jonathan Hall

I can't see the Tories going for an English parliament - currently they can't even bring themselves to say England.