Tories back ahead with YouGov

Luke

Tories have stopped the rot but unless something dramatic happens in the next 16 days Cameron isn't going to win this election and he'll be struggling to even finish as largest party.

Forget the idea that either of the big 2 will have a mandate Clegg will have to respect. The mandate will be clegg's to secure lib dem policies from whoever is prepared to give them.

Paul Wakeford

The Conservative absolute core is 33%. Then there are the ones Blair took; the easily persuaded type that swoon and think "ooh he looks a nice man". Then they'll remember that a vote for that "nice man" Blair gave them the disaster that is Brown. Clegg is the new nice man to keep Brown going beyond political death. Surely can't be that feeble minded again?

Anyway, the Tory voters will vote and the Clegg "yoof vote" will not be as reliable. I suggest that we will have a proper splitting of the anti Tory vote as we had in the Thatcher years.

It would be wonderful if the main left party was no longer the obscenely class obsessed Labour party.

JONNY

Plus:
The Tories will get their full vote out. Labour and LD far more problematical.

Take Scotland into account with Labour piling up 40% - subtract from Labour vote in England where the marginals are. Worth another point or two.

Add UKIP voters (howver grudging and reluctant) tsking fright and seeing the light, coming round finally to keep Brown out (vide Vulture). 2 points perhaps?
Or put it another way,UNS as favoured by MSM very probably bollocks.

Grumpy Optimist

We need a Lib Tory agreement to get rid of Labour and bring in the great society. The Liberal wing of the LibDems could agree to that. And taking down the surveillance society. And yes ask the people what they want to do about Europe. Tell them its called democracy.

And to talk about PR - why not. Cos we have to breal Labour once and for all.

Helen

I find it odd that the Tories are the ones who have lost the most votes to the LibDems, after all, their policies are (if you excuse the pun) polls apart.This would indicate that thse are 'change' voters who primarily want anyone but Gordon Brown but who haven't closely examined the policy detail.However, by switching to the LibDems, due to the inequities of the voting system, they will probably ensure that Brown is the leader of the party with the largest number of seats. When this dawns on the electorate, will they accept this outcome in our so-called democracy?

david

I'm beginning to wonder Forsyth if you are sane, this is good news, that the Tories who were odds on favourites to win this election, will at best be largest party in a hung parliament.

mike

The dream team, Gordon and Nick running the country. Cameron and Ossy selling wallpaper.

Richard of York

Still puts GB in No10 and Shameron and Oik on the dole.....yawn try and find a poll that is interesting.

Mike

YouGov cannot be trusted- http://www.libdemvoice.org/yougov-pushpolling-mystery-deepens-19001.html

It's asking deeply biased questions before asking about voting intention, and then not publishing those biased questions.

I'm definately not going to vote for the Liberal Democrats (it's Labour for me) but it is appalling.

oldrightie

With what amounts to a plague of polls and hype I am astounded at the attention paid. This election is on course to mirror the EU elections of barely a year ago. Labour struggling to hold second place, overstated LibDem support and a quiet but big win for The Tories. Seems more likely based on a REAL poll.

Jean Monnet

Could it really have gone lower? I doubt it.

stereodog

Yes but the Conservatives have only stopped themselves hemorrhaging because they've pretty much reached their core vote.
Whatever happens the Lib Dems will never bite into this because it is a million miles away from sharing their values. The trouble Labour has is that the Lib Dems can potentially appeal to elements of their core vote, particularly on their £10000 tax policy. I don't actually believe they will achieve this because of tribal sentiment but it still makes Labour's core wobblier than the Conservatives.
The thing about these opinion polls for the Lib Dems is that they are self sustaining, so long as a poll supports the Lib Dem surge it energises their vote. I believe that if there were say 3 nights without any opinion polls being released then the surge would probably subside. Fortunately for the Lib Dems every polling company is on an election footing.

toco

Now the LibDems' policies on matters such as Europe,Defence,the fiscal deficit and crime are under scrutiny they can only go lower in the polls particularly when some harmful and unpleasant campaign tactics are starting to unravel.No one deserves to hold the balance of power through fear based on thin policies and such an outcome just ensures that we are permanently in election mode which does not bear thinking about.

steve

This wouldn't be the YouGov poll that has its first question as

"Nick Clegg says the other parties are to blame for the MP scandals, he has taken money from a criminal on the run, many of his MPs have been found guilty of breaking the rules and his own party issued guidance on how to fiddle the expenses system."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/apr/19/yougov-survey-nick-clegg-attack

How many times do we have to tell you...we are NOT STUPID.

Boudicca

Pushing for the Leaders Debates and allowing Clegg to participate on equal terms to Labour and the Tories will turn out to be the biggest mistake Cameron has ever made.

Angus

Before everyone starts flapping uncontrollably about the prospect of Clegg spoiling the party, we must remember a few things.

Clegg has played his joker, but the game is very far from over. If Cameron has one quality it is a cool head under pressure. He is calm under fire. Clegg will not get the same bounce twice and meanwhile, the Tory vote will creep back to 34/5 by the end of the week. If Cameron can get some traction on Thursday that will see 35/6/7 by next week. A solid performance in the third and last debate should consolidate this. The Lib Dems have had a bounce but I think across the piece this will split the centre-left vote and could play to the Tory advantage.

I predict a small Conservative majority.

Tiberius

Boudicca: you may turn out to be right, but Cameron is trying to win this election by debating policy rather than smearing, duffing up, or silencing his political opponents.

We want our politicians to be honest and straight and moving away from spin, don't we? Isn't New Labour's Stalinist methodology the reason so many are turned off politics?

mike

Tiberius "but Cameron is trying to win this election by debating policy rather than smearing, duffing up, or silencing his political opponents."
That's the silliest thing I've read on this blog for a long time, and on this blog that's an achievement, so well done.

Titus Salt

Richard's sneering comments remind me of Lord Haw-Haw - defiant and delusional to the end, even as the Russkies bayonet the staff outside the studio door.

TGF UKIP

What has been quite noticeable on the news bulletins today has been the story of Brown not cosying up to but attacking the LibDems and it's not difficult to see why. Even though Labour might still, perversely, end up with the greatest number of seats to poll the lowest number of votes would not only destroy their credibility, it could be terminal for them.

Moreover, I seem to recall seeing a quote from Clegg saying soething along the lines of, that in the event of no party having an overall majority he would feel compelled to see firstly what common ground might exist with the party with the largest number of VOTES, not seats.

My own view is that in the event that the Tories poll highest but Labour have the largest number of seats, the Tories should walk away and leave Labour and LibDems to it. A Budget or Spending Review of the severity required would never be agreed, Gilts and Sterling would within a very short time plummet and within a year the IMF would be involved. Both Labour and LibDems would then be severely tarnished for a very long time to come.

Dave would of course lose his position as Leader, another huge plus for the Conservative Party.

Percy

I just want Labour out.

General Zod

Titus, do you live in the eponymous village (part of a Tory seat reclaimed in 2005)?

Osred

I wonder if Dick suffers from the same psychological flaws as Gordonsarah?

Nicholas

"Richard's sneering comments remind me of Lord Haw-Haw - defiant and delusional to the end, even as the Russkies bayonet the staff outside the studio door.

Ah, be still my beating heart! If anyone needs a close introduction to an angry Russkie with a very long bayonet it is Richard the Dork. Sort of ironic too - no doubt he would be bleating "Tovarich! Tovarich!" and showing his little red star for all he's worth.

Tiberius

"That's the silliest thing I've read on this blog for a long time, and on this blog that's an achievement, so well done".

My pleasure, sir.

Would you care to put the opposite viewpoint? I might see the error of my ways then.

Tiberius

TGF: I think Clegg is credited with not defining whether he means share of the vote or seats. But your proposal for the Tory response is actually quite sound.

But Cameron is going nowhere!

huerehlo gomes

why not tell us about the four other polls out that show lib dem surge holding?..."cameron must win the other two debates to secure a majority" really??. how about he needs to resolve the strategic issues of what his message is and stay on it. you guys are sadly bobbing around in the water and sounding like Lord Haw Haw at the moment. Disappointing and not what some of us trapped by ash in far off lands hope for in political comment. Time to head off to politics home.

Ian Walker

You know, I've become distinctly relaxed about this. What I suspect we're almost certain to get now is a Lib-Con coalition that will basically be Conservative policy but with a genuine parliamentary reform agenda.

Install Cable's smiling friendly old duffer face in the Treasury to keep the public entertained while the painful stuff with the economy is sorted out, then retire him with a grateful thankyou. Meanwhile, put Nick in as Home Secretary and give him carte blance to rip up Westminster and replace it with something fit for the 21st Century, rather than the 15th.

Nope, the polls are fine.

Roger Davies

And the measurement error is? >1%?

Any Lib Dem/Lab pact will not include Brown or that lunatic Balls, these two are the nemesis of Britain's economic decline and no Lib Dem would sit at the same table with them.

Titus Salt

General Zod - it's my home town, though I haven't lived there in over 20 years. Still get back fairly frequently to see the folks and go for the odd pint (or two) at Fanny's.

John David Barnett

This is the third time I've visited this blog and I've just notice this new word, "Haemoragging".

We need new words for new times. Let's move into the modern era and do away with the tired old words!

Vulture

@Little Dickie:

I've already offered you a £100 bet, raised to a Grand, that your demented hero Bruin will be out on his tartan arse after May 7th and you have twice refused it.

So you obviously don't believe the bollox you write - therefore why should we?

Stevie

I have never been 'polled'. Nor has anyone I know. These pollsters are talking to those who have a vested interest in being asked...not Joe Public.

FF

Strictly speaking, the Conservatives aren't haemorragging support. They're simply not attracting the many previously undecideds in the same proportion as the Liberals.

Conservatives need to appeal to voters who they previously alienated. In other words, to get these voters back Conservatives have to show they are no longer what they used to be.

I think what's happening here is that voters are deciding that they don't have to vote Conservative by default to get rid of Labour. As with the Liberals, Conservatives are different from Labour. But the Liberals are more different from what the Conservatives used to be than the Conservatives are.

Customers (or voters to use the old fashioned term) have a choice. In rather large numbers they are choosing the Liberals. BA should no longer worry about Lufhansa because it's Ryanair that's taking their market share.

General Zod

Ah, Titus, my brother lives in the village and my parents in Nab Wood. Like you, I haven't lived there in 20 years.

I too am partial to a pint at Fanny's.

General Zod

JDB, agreed, but "haemorrhaging" is perfectly acceptable used figuratively for this purpose, although not if overused.

Nation of Simpletons

Polls at the moment suggest the following may well be the outcome:
* Tories will win the most votes
* Labour will win the most seats
* Nick'n'Vince will have to decide who in their opinion has the clearest mandate and who they have a duty to try to "support" if we are to have a functional government.

Surely, if they are true to the principle of PR, how every vote should count and all that, there is no logical, or honourable, way they could possibly get into bed with Labour under these circumstances. By their book, more votes trumps more seats. It's a no-brainer.
But then again we're talking Lib Dems here.

Paul B

I think what also maybe happening that is making it difficult for the Conservative to gain support, is the inflated public payroll. Public servants, who may normally be attracted to the Conservatives are fearful that electing a Tory Government will mean redundancy for them. The client state working to feather its own nest, as many on here have predicted. In particular Verity. Hat tip to her.

Holly ......

We should all vote for the hung parliament & let the Richard of york's of this country have their wish.
Within months the IMF would have to be called in,Bozo & Balls would be crawling around on their bellies,in the shadows and nothing would get sorted.
What the Richards of this country do not understand is the fallout from the IMF.
I say let them learn the hard way.
Another election in the Autumn with both Labour & the Lib Dems in disaray.
Maybe this is what the public needs to bring them down to earth.Many have no idea the disaster coming our way,I say give them a taster...they will not like it.

2trueblue

HOw was it phrased????/ It is all al load of gobbly gook until you know what was asked, phraseology, nuance. Those of us who have written the scripts for years know that easy peasy to get the result you want/the client wants. Mr Baroness Ashton has a big credibility to climb, nearly as big as Cleggie boys. The great thing is this sort of pole will help the Tories, so an own goal Mr Ashhie.

General Zod

Not only tha, NoS, the LibDems shout that they stand for change. Getting into bed with a defeated Labour Party, that has clung to the most seats by rigging the system, does not fit that claim.

Garibaldi

A healthy dose of scepticism is in order to counter this daily poll frenzy.

I first voted in 1970 and have not yet experienced an election result that could not have been expected six months or a year before. Not even 1992...John Major was initially trusted and had neytralised the toxic Thatcher legacy of the Poll Tax and (in the short term) Europe.

Six months or a year ago, the consensus was that the Conservatives would beat Labour but would find it difficult to get a majority due to the pro-Labour bias in seats.

Consider also the background political situation.

1. A government at the fag-end of its third term and lacking any positive ideas.
2. An unpopular PM who is despised by many of his own colleagues.
3. A cabinet riven by personal factions.
4. A dire economic and financial situation.
5. A budget that was at best irrelevant.
6. A widespread cynicism with politics due to the expenses scandal.
7. A young leader of the opposition attempting to articulate an alternative to a disillusioned electorate.

If you didn't know the polls, what would you expect to happen. Labour to lose, possibly heavily. The Conservatives to gain but probably struggling to win outright. The Lib Dems to exploit the "neither of the above" feeling.

Throw in, the Lib Dems tendency to be hard to remove once elected in a constituency. They are good at playing the "social worker, local representative" role. After all, they have nothing else to do. Being the Lib Dem spokesman/woman on prisons or whatever is hardly onerous. They escape all responsibility because they can blame the government or the system.

The Tories are still the only party with a positive programme. Also, opposing "more tax on jobs" in a recession is an easy point to make. Labour are wholly negative and are openly encouraging the Lib Dems which will (a) do nothing for Labour morale and (b) make it easy for the Tories to play on "Vote Yellow, get Brown."

There will be all sorts of local surprises in the results. A few Tories may even lose their seats to the Lib Dems but they should make big gains from Labour.

300 seats+ for the Tories is achievable if not a formality. It will do for the time being. They will be clearly the biggest party. There will be no appetite for another election for at least another couple of years. The Northern Irish MPs only care about local issues and the Tories should at least engage in a dialogue with the SNP and PC. If they want more devolution,let them have it on the understanding that it's paid for locally.

A final thought. A lot of Labour people in the North can't stand the Lib Dems. A deal between them may look like a cunning plan but we all know what can happen to those.

Paddy

Only two and a half weeks to go now and then we'll have nothing to moan about.

Brown and his henchman will be out of No 10.

TGF UKIP

Dream on Tiberius, the wave of bitter resentment and vituperation that will well over your boy will see him gone by the end of May. If he dares try to hang on with the encouragement of all the usual London media suspects, I will look forward to the crescendo of booing that will greet him when he walks onto the Conference platform.

Indeed, I hope he does try to hang on, his complete humiliation would be most satisfying.

Richard of York

@Vulture
Told you before I would rather take money from a drug dealer/serial killer than from you...I know how you earn your money and its tainted in the blood of dying third world children.
Now get a priest or a shrink either will be a bonus before its too late for that shrivelled soul of yours.