Where is the axe going to fall?

alexsandr

If you shut your eyes for long enough, the nasty thing will go away.

General Zod

I wonder whether we'll see the highlights of that press conference on BBC News tonight.

Nickle

The real question to ask Brown is about his investment.

What return has he got from the investment?

Can he sell the investments to provide the cash?

Nick

PS. Good luck selling off the speed humps to the highest bidder

Ghengis

These inevitable cuts will also take effect whilst the Governments's income is being massively reduced. The candidates in this election are behaving like criminals in not informing the electorate.

Judy

Doesn't this seem to show that the Tories have by far the toughest task in saying where their £52billion cuts are going to come from? Doesn't it mean they're even more open to attack on the next TV debate than either the LibDems or Labour?

And just where exactly are those cuts coming from?

Olaf Rye

Oh my, this really underscores the enormity of the deficit--this does not even begin to address the debt. So, does Labour and its supporters still think it was worth indebting us to a level of £1.3 trillion (£2.2 trillion if we include the underwriting of RBS), to keep civil servants employed ? I say this because that is the only mob that those defending this spending can claim to have benefited from the massive level of debt that this nation has accrued under Labour. I suspect that all those singing praises of Brown's economic management a few years back are nowhere to be found !

paul holdstock

with the governing party hunkered down in their bunker, no solution will ever come from them.
as for the others, they will inevitably have to impliment swingeing cuts, BROWN'S cuts, as only the government bears any responsibility for the mess.
incidentally, whilst inhabiting their bunker, like moles, brown and co, might like to reflect on the fact that the correct word for a number of moles, is a labour.

Nickle

The challenge for the next government is to avoid being the fall guy for the mess.

I propose the following.

Hypothecate the proportion of income tax spent on debt as a new tax. Reduce income tax accordingly. So no change to people's pockets.

Have the new tax appear on payslips as a cumulative figure.

Give it a snazzy name, such as labour tax, small 'l' so people don't confuse it with the Labour party, large 'L'.

Next, its to add to the payslip your proportion of the debt. All the debts, off balance sheet included. Pro rata, per taxpayer.

Then you have the right people blamed, and the outcry will be so large, that there is the political will to change the mess

Olaf Rye

Perhaps we could raise revenue by selling our brilliant arts to the world, such a television programmes like 'Shameless' and the comic genius of Ben Elton and Eddie Izzard. We could support this by all those fantastic media graduates.

Another source of revenue is to hire out our splendid bureaucracy. I am sure other nations are dying to employ people that are so clever and productive to run their institutions into the ground. And since Labour is so strict with criminals, the judiciary could perhaps advise other nations and how to treat them with compassion whilst passing out benefits to those with dozens of convictions under their belt. The NHS could advise on saving costs by merely providing patients with antiquated cancer medication and showing the foreign customers how to manipulate the statistics and then utter some nonsense about value for money with a straight face.

GDT

So in short - whoever wins, pain is to come. Maybe best result for the Tories is a hung parliment, with a lib/lab coalition. Based on these figures whoever does the cutting will be vilified. Either taht or the indignity of the IMF making all the tough decisions.

Olaf

Does this assume that tax income from business will stay static?

What if we have a booming economy in a couple of years?

What if the recession dips again?

Stu

Er, so the Tories have identified the fewest cuts of all the parties? How bizarre. You'd have thought they'd have identified plenty of fat to cut. FRASER! FRASER! I THINK YOUR SERVICES ARE REQUIRED FRASER

Yam Yam

But ask yourself realistically: is the electorate prepared to be confronted with this stark reality?

Or are they as willing to be misled about the true scale of Britain's perilous public finances as their political parties are to do the misleading?

Michael Booth

For one blissful minute I read the headline and thought of a scaffold on Tower Hill and a long line of NuLiebor traitors lined up for the chop...

'Calm down, dear, it's just wishful thinking'

Noa

Nickle @ 3:16pm

That's a clever idea, now that management of the Debt and Deficit are on the election agenda it would be a way of personalising the public's involvement in Thursday's debate.

boulay

GDT I agree with you as long as the Tories do not dump cameron. If the Tories are in opposition but having won the most seats and most votes they will have the moral high ground.

When it all goes wrong for the liblab coalition they will then be able to say "we told you so".

During the chaos they must violently attack any attempt to change the voting system as "fiddling whilst Rome burns" and delay any attempts to pass it so that when the coalition fallsand there is a new election it can be fought fptp.

Dorothy Wilson

"There are few more startling indictments of the political debate about cuts - and of Labour's decision not to release a spending review - than the IFS's work today."

There are few more startling indictments of the mess Brown and Labour have landed us in!

Ripple

I have taught my 10 year old son the difference between the "deficit" and the "debt"....I suspect he is now in the 0.5% population who understands our predicament....

Cottage Pie

If you consider the economy as a sick person, the electorate (patient) is faced with three options:

Dr Brown: Ignore it and it will go away.

Dr Cameron: We need to administer some strong medicine. It will not be easy but before long you will begin to feel better.

Dr Clegg: Why not try Homeopathy?

Nicholas

Olaf, I'm all for selling Izzard the Lizzard overseas - preferably to Cuba or North Korea. Although I fear they might make us pay them to receive him there. Maybe his huge ego could be persuaded to undertake a globe-trotting Trotskyist trot and raise money for charity as he disappears forever into the East with his Sontaran head on its dowager's body.

oldtimer

What to do?

Growth: I believe that the IFS data starts with the present budget assumptions. These already include optimistic growth forecasts. Others think that these forecasts offer little or no upside potential. Achieving the present forecast is a big ask.

Taxes: I think that taxes on consumption are bound to go up. VAT is a strong candidate. On the other hand a combination of tax simplication with lower taxes on employment (at the lower income levels) and business activity would help boost employment and reduce unemployment costs.

Welfare costs: I think these also will be cut under the guise of welfare reform. Both Labour and Conservative seem intent on reducing the number on incapacity benefits (by making it harder to claim if you are capable of some form of work) and the cost of unemployment benefits (by penalising those who refuse to accept job offers).

Departmental cost cutting: sacred cows (ring fenced departments) will have to be sacrificed. Andrew Neill pointed out today that for all the parties, ring fenced budgets account for more than half of all departmental spending. All the party leaders need to `get real` (to borrow a phrase) that it will not be possible to get the balance of cuts required from the remaining departmental spend.

It is a grim but unavoidable prospect. I think that there are three dangers.
1 public sector employees do not accept the pain, go on strike and make the situation worse;
2 accelerating the cost cutting does indeed choke of recovery as some fear (eg Labour and LibDems);
3 the increased taxes prove to be a disincentive to saving, investment and risk taking, and those with cash in their wallets vote with their feet and invest in sunnier, more investment friendly climes.

Neil Wilson

Where's the other graph about the amount taxes will increase by under each party?

Snowman

A clear cut 3-prong policy to eradicate not only the structural deficit:

Cut 20% of all transfer outlays (from quango funding to child credits) except for pensions and disability payments each year for the next five years.

Allocate 20% of the saved money to charities dealing with the consequences of the cuts.

Abolish corporation tax far small companies altogether (currently 21% on profits up to £300,000) and lower main rate to 25%.

Roger Davies

This might cauterise the blood loss, but what about paying down the debts? That will require that we generate a surplus, something we have no recent history of achieving, every month of every year for God knows how long until it becomes manageable once again. I somehow do not think that this is going to happen in my life time and at best we will service the interest on the debt mountain. Maybe a £1.00=$1.00 will push up the cost of imports to a level that we decide to do without new cars and electronic gizmos and take up vegetable gardening instead.

Alan Douglas

What I want to know is, was Mandleson trying to slit Nick Robinson's throat, zip his lip, or both, during that car-crash press conference ?

Alan Douglas

Any Colour but Brown

"Cottage Pie

Dr Brown: As promised, I have seen you with in 2 weeks. I will start treating you in a couple of years, but, in the meantime, I will require you to pay me, so that I can spend loads of money on shiny new equipment that I don't know how to use.

Dr Cameron: We need to administer some strong medicine. It will not be easy but before long you will begin to feel better.

Dr Clegg: Why not try Homeopathy?
"

DangerDave

All of these chickens will be coming home to roost after the election whoever gets in.

Unfortunately, none of these muppets have any plan how to reduce the £1.4trillion that we will end up owing )that's just the on balance sheet stuff). I can only hope that DC and his mob have a plan but can't get reveal it in case noone votes for him.

No doubt Moraymint will be able to put this in cleverer terms than I can but you get my drift. We've all been living a lie over the last 13 years and it's all coming home to roost.

I just hope I can get out in time.

Michael C Feltham

The fiscal realities must clearly be divided into current national debt; and budgetary deficit.

Under Zanulab, Brown (Remember Mr "No More Boom and Bust": "Prudent Fiscal Policies": or perhaps more appositely, "Total lack of Capability Brown"), since 1997 until he scooted in the PM's job, had been spending public money like a demented octopus on Speed!

And, despite record increases in Tax Revenues, was additionally even then, borrowing increasingly.

Britain now faces a more dire period than after WWII and Clem Attlee's attempts to bankrupt Britain twice!

However, once the Tory government returned, then British industry was able to get going and earn the country out of debt, by massive export efforts.

However, then, Britain still had its Commonwealth, as secure trading partners and an excellent system of preferrential tariffs to beat off competition.

Britain sold them manufactured goods: they sold us cheap foodstuffs.

Now, Britain has no meaningful heavy industry: and is compelled to pay hundreds of billions each year to the EU.

Couldn't get worse, could it.

Unfortunately, yes: as the bond markets turn against government debt (S & P have just downmarked Greek Bonds to "Junk" Status and have also again downgraded Portuguese bonds), the UK is set to float probably £160 billion of government debt, on a global capital market which increasingly fears defaults.

Expensive.

However, this is not all: having to import essentials in hard currency, Britain's huge Balance of Trade Deficit must be funded: somehow: and the flow of essential continued, if a continuum of the economy is to be enjoyed.

Expect a Sterling Crisis, quite soon

Anne Wotana Kaye 1

Millions can be saved by a radical change of policy concerning the NHS.
Briefly, nursing as a vocation is a lost cause. Most of the people who train as registered nurses today, see is as a career, with higher qualifications meaning higher salaries and even less hands-on contact with the sick. Many sit at nurse stations filling in forms, whilst the patients are attended to (if they are lucky) by nursing assistants, mainly foreign, who was, dress, and perform all the intimate duties which once were the tasks of nurses. Every day brings new horror stories of patients dying of malnutrition, covered in faeces and dehydrated, because food was placed where they could not reach it, water containers were empty, and nobody responded for calls for bedpans. Because of a shortage of staff, patients are even instructed to do it in the bed! So much for dignity for the elderly, and not so elderly.
GPs don't usually work weekends, and home visits at night are like a lucky dip, again if you are very lucky. Locums who can neither speak nor understand English are the norm, and many alas seem to have poor medical skills. A Testicle get chopped off by a doctor from Jordan who took the drugs intended for his unfortunate patient, and another "doctor" from Germany, although originally from Africa, was so illiterate that he couldn't read the drug dosage and killed a patient with an overdoseo f morphia. If you want to see your regular GP there is often a minimum two weeks waiting list, and even then you have to get past the Rottweiller who sits in as a receptionist.
These so called key NHS workers are mainly a waste of space and money. A solution would be for contributers to the NHS being issued vouchers to be used overseas. Countries such as France, Holland and Hungary have excellent facilities. Only those who contrbute to the NHS pot would receive vouchers, senior citizens and children would of course be included. This would eliminate foreigners trying to freeload onto the NHS.
Whilst this was taking place, a whole new generation of British nurses and doctors would be trained or where possible retrained. Training would take place in selected hospitals where old-fashioned standards of hygiene would be strictly observed. A limited number of urgently sick patients would be admitted for treatment, and all medical procedures closely monitored.
It must be better than what is happening now

Paul Hawkins

I agree to a point.Lib Dems and Tories should not make promises they do not yet know they can keep. Labour should not make promises they know they cannot keep. The only issue is the degree of dishonesty being exhibited.

rodney g james

Cameron should now focus on the economy and truthfully say that until in power he does not know where it will all come from. But, hi strategy is to decentralise, cut bureaucracy and regulation and re-empower the doctrs, police chiefs and school heads to get on with their jobs without any but the most essential reporting. For example, a senior hospital consultant doctor friend of mine spends half her time in meetings and filling in forms, which is much more than in 1997, so doing less doctoring.
In the meantime, he should announce a 2 year freeze on ALL salaries in the public, while he carries out a detailed spending review.
Above all keep it simple and point out that 3 times since the war Labour has caused a serious economic mess and the Tories have always sorted it out so you can trust them to do so again. The alternative under the Left is anuclear version of Greece.

Robert Taggart

As a state sponsored scrounger... oneself would cut benefits !
No. Honestly. The set-up be a nonsense !
Methinks there be three different categories of 'needy' people...
1. Minors (under 18 y.o.a)
2. Adults (with little or no income - moi !)
3. Pensioners (either gender over 65 y.o.a.)
We have a national minimum wage. We need a national minimum income. What rate that would be... ? But, if, for whatever reason, someone falls below the rate, then benefits would be available to lift you up.
Concerning the second group, if you be unemployed (moi) you would be given help to find employment. But, this would be quite separate to the benefit. This would avoid the corruption (statistically) which the current system encourages on the part of the 'civil' (!) servants.