Tactical voting and the race for second

Walsingham's Ghost

All this tactical voting is getting confusing...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qtc89-56UAI&feature=player_embedded

Daniel

In order for the Liberals to replace Labour, and win in 2015, they need a Tory government.

Clegg needs Cameron as Prime Minister.

Ian Walker

Dangerous stuff. There is a certain critical mass of Lib Dem support which suddenly tips a whole bunch of seats their way - unbelieveably there are scenarios not far from the current polls which give Labour and the Tories only a hundred seats each.

Given then the postal voting happened at the height of Cleggmania, it's really important for Cameron to woo those floating voters and disillusioned Labourites. For all the talk of safe seats, ever single vote is going to count in this election.

Steven

It now seems more likely that the Labour vote will simply stay at home and not vote for anyone.

My prediction Con 40% Lib 31% Lab 22%.

TGF UKIP

This is all irrelevant in the great scheme of things. The big story of the campaign, as the video clip over on Guido at order-order.com makes clear, is that Alastair Campbell is off the wagon with a vengeance.

"Sir" Michael had better start practising his bobbing and his weaving.

In2minds

Tactical voting by Compass - "after its members backed it overwhelmingly in a poll".

From the link I see 467 people voted for this, 93 against and 90 abstentions/spoilt papers. The Compass website also says -

"This is the biggest return we have ever had" - I make that 650 people in all. So what? If it rains on polling day the same number of people per constituency may decide to stay at home and keep dry. Is this Compass stuff really important?

tenpin

The tories will get 2nd or 3rd spot....Brown has got this whole thing rigged by postal vote...Labour will win this election by a landslide....it will be our hanging chad moment.

Colin

It seems that the low circulation rag, the grauniad, has come out in favour of the lib dems.

Perfect bedfellows: poor quality, a shocking reputation for inaccuracies and half-truths, dodgy financial dealings...

Conservative majority spread: 25 - 43 seats.

Snowman

Steven at 7.20:

Man can predict everything but the future.

Charlie T

I think the polls are underplaying Conservative support and overplaying Lib Dem.The Libs have their core support at aprrox 20%. Anything over 25% is fairly soft. Labours race is run they will get their core vote and nothing more. As I have said before Labour and Lib Dem voters have been voting tactically since 1997 anyway so there's not more much mileage there. My predications Con: 39% Lab: 29% LD: 27%. An overall Conservative majority of 25 to 30. I hope the odious bully state leftists at compass have a truly terrible night 6/7 May.

BTW I hope Balls does scrape it. If you pardon the expression.He`s got all of Browns faults and them some. With him in charge of Labour post election they could really implode.

Dorothy Wilson

TGF; Really? Actually, the thought went through my mind as I watched Campbell on the telly last night that he had been sampling a dram or two.

Rhoda Klapp

Positioning again. I've been observing it for a week or so, the pros will catch up some time. Changing horses to get onto the side which loses less. Oh what principled people they turn out to be. The Guardian story is the same thing. And the left-wing intellectual post over on Bright's blog. Bye Bye Labour, we're all Lib-Dems now.

George J

Conservativehome are saying this:
The Times will endorse the Conservatives

More soon. The Tories have gained The Sun and The Economist since Cameron became Prime Minister. It is hoped the FT may also endorse Cameron but that is far from certain.

Since Cameron became Prime Minister???

Is this a Sheffield Rally moment a la Kinnock?

Rhys

Cameron is dead lucky that LibDems / Cleggy have an even more insane immigration policy [openly legitimize grotesque levels of already happened and still more to come incomers ] than does he [quietly and concealedly legitimize grotesque etc. etc. ].
I believe if Clegg had been prepared to abandon his immigration policy ( or maybe nuance it with a referendum lock ) he would now have a real chance at No 10 for himself.
Even his brain couldn't defend the indefensible, thus allowing Cameron to get away with the ludicrous 'cap' with no number.

Jane Holmes

George J- I hope so, but reading them today I half expect them to declare for the Lib Dems. God only knows why!

TGF UKIP

Ian Walker and tenpin, both make parallel and important points. Postal votes were always a Labour ploy which may end up resulting in an imbalance of the overall vote in either their and/or the LibDem's direction.

Indeed, one of the most surprising aspects of the Gillian Duffy affair was that she, a sprightly, conventional sixty six year old, was intending to cast a postal ballot. If she had posted her vote on Tuesday, it would, as we know so well, have been a solidly Labour vote unswayed then by either bigotgate or debate.

watttyler

If we lived in a country that didn't contain such a lot of stupid people who were impressed by presentation and prestige, I should have said that the Tory press must be hoping to whatever god they have that the reality they are painting will be the one that is the outcome at the election - otherwise their reputations would be in tatters. But we don't live in a country like that.

joe

I hope to goodness that Cameron takes Tebbit's advice and stays the he** away from any coalition. Let the Left sort out the mess the Left has made. In twelve to eighteen months time,the electorate will be ready for the grown-up party.

stereodog

I think Mr Forsyth is quie right about what is happening. I have always been a Lib Dem voter (although with a heavy bias towards it's Liberal wing) but have always disliked my local party and particularly it's current parliamentary candidate. Living in a safe seat I was tempted to spoil my ballot this time around but I will hold my nose and vote for the Lib Dem candidate so as to contribute to the chance of them coming second in the popular vote.

David Parker

Until very recently, however dissatisfied with this government the Labour tribal voters may have been, most of them would never, under any circumstances, have voted Conservative, but a vote for the Lib-Dems was regarded as a wasted vote, since they were never expected to occupy any position of real power. But, with the dramatic swing of public opinion after the first of the leader's debates, for the first time the third party appeared to present a genuine threat to the political status quo and a way for disgruntled Labour supporters to express their views without voting Conservative.
The actual policies advocated by Clegg were totally irrelevant in the minds of the Labour tribal voters, most of whom were incapable of even understanding,let alone critically analysing these.

In addition to the Tribal voters, the surge in apparent support for the Lib-Dems also appealed to the significant proportion of the electorate disinclined to vote for either of the two main parties, but who also hitherto had regarded the Lib- Dems as a wasted vote and decided not to vote.

In both of these cases, however, there was little attention paid to the actual Lib-Dem policies themselves, most of which are considerably to the Left of Labour.

If the Conservatives are to have any chance of a working majority they should steer clear of attacking Clegg personally and concentrate upon exposing the weaknesses of his policies and his colleagues.

Beer Moth

David Parker

You are right in your lowly estimation of the issue awareness of the - as you put it - 'tribal Labour voters'.

However, even they have gotten wind of Clegg's insane proposals on immigration and Europe.

Now if only he could put in a few 9-dart finishes.....

David Parker

Beer Moth,

I sincerely hope you are right!
But, if so, where will their votes go?

Not primarily, as I suspect both of us would wish, to UKIP, though some may do so; but probably most will probably just stay, at home. What will, however, be interesting will be to see the differential loss/gain between UKIP and the BNP, with the latter still being mistakenly regarded by many (including most of the MSM) as a party of the extreme right.