Two more polls indicate a hung parliament with the Tories as the largest party
James Forsyth 9:25pm
Two more polls have just come out, YouGov for the Sunday Times and BPIX for the Mail on Sunday. The two polls both point towards a hung parliament with the Tories as the largest party and both put the Lib Dems in second. YouGov have Tories 35, Lib Dems 28 and Labour 27 and BPIX Tories 34, Lib Dem 30 and Labour 27.
If the Tories get the most votes and the most seats, as all the polls today suggest they will, Cameron will end up as Prime Ministers. The Lib Dems have said too often that the party with the most votes and the most seats has a mandate to govern to go back on that.
The two big questions of the last few days are can Cameron close strongly enough to eke out a majority and can the Lib Dems hold on to second. There are reasons to think that the Tories will get over the line, their vote is solid and they are the party that is picking up support. Tory candidates in the battleground seats are also bullish about their chances. But I don’t think we’ll be able to predict the result with any confidence until the actual votes start being counted.



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The Cat in the Hat
May 1st, 2010 9:29pm Report this commentWho will be the winner and who is coming last?
The time to win more votes has well and truly passed.
Four or five more days for the nation to decide
Who deserves to lose and who’ll be filled with pride.
The race begins to reach its final gruesome straight.
David, Gord and Nick are soon to know their fate.
But Gordon’s getting tired and Nick has lost the way.
Whilst Dave has found new energy to see him through the day.
The post, is getting nearer
And every effort’s made
To accelerate much further
And win the accolade.
Will there be a winner?
Or will there be a draw?
No! Not another election!
I cannot cope anymore!
Charlie T
May 1st, 2010 9:33pm Report this commentI keep saying the Lib polling north of 25% is soft and the Labour vote will be its core vote nothing more.
Cameron needs to play a straight bat,statesmanlike with no gaffes from now until Thursday and the Conservatives will get a majority.
toco
May 1st, 2010 9:38pm Report this commentGiven your supposition Clegg will renege and work with Labour provided he and his Dad get some sort of job and PR going forward.It is a no brainer as the LibDems would be holding the balance of power on a pretty much permanent basis.
Alan McAlpine Douglas
May 1st, 2010 9:40pm Report this commentDo I detect some weasel words from Clegg here ? The largest number of seats and the largest number of votes - what happens, as it surely could with the votes per MP varying so widely between the parties, if one party has the largest number of votes but ANOTHER PARTY has the most seats ?
Alan Douglas
Jack Colson
May 1st, 2010 9:42pm Report this commentWe need to move away from basing analysis on the idea of a uniform national swing. 538 is fast becoming the only analysis that really matters when it comes to polls.
NW Sheffield
May 1st, 2010 10:21pm Report this commentCameron, Clegg or Brown. Locally informed opinion is surely the answer. http://nwsheffield.org/2010/05/01/pre-election-posts-on-nws-news/
emil
May 1st, 2010 10:23pm Report this commentThese hung parliament predictions are perfect. Tories will always go out to vote, many Labour supporters won't be bothered if they think a LibLab coalition is in the bag.
wonderfulforhisage
May 1st, 2010 10:27pm Report this commentWere I contemplating the arrival of Maggie, Boris, John Redwood, DD .....etc. I'd be on tenterhooks and hoping they would make it. As it is ............Brown? Cameron? Clegg what's the difference and who cares?
I agree with the Hefferlump. Bring on the IMF; at least they would tell us the truth.
TrevorsDen
May 1st, 2010 11:06pm Report this commentInterestingly Mrs Duffy was more upset at being called 'that woman' than being called a bigot (though clearly that did not go down well). Poor Mrs Duffy, she should realise that to Brown 'that was no lady that was a bigot.
Still Brown has something in common with Bill Clinton who famously said 'I did not have sex with that woman ...'
Polls? Are they really coping with the shifting tectonic plates? A majority of 1 will suffice for me, but it does seem to me as I lounge on my couch that Labour are teetering on the brink. Will they be given the final shove? Thats where election night will be interesting. Lets just not be disappointed if (IF) it turns out to be just 1 ....
Jeremy
May 1st, 2010 11:26pm Report this commentI'm sorry, James...it's been so long since I paid politics any close attention that I really am very sketchy about the whole thing. But you and I must both have seen how swervy Clegg was on the details of Liberal policy when challenged about it by Dave during the last television debate. If it came to a hung Parliament, and were I Mr Cameron, I would be very loath to hand that man all of my political eggs for "safekeeping". Clegg is more of a spinner than Dave. But if it came to a hung parliament and Dave refused, on principle, to do a deal with Clegg, then how would that play with the public? Dave would have to keep the public very well informed as to the reasons why he was not prepared to do such a deal. That would by no means be beyond his abilities and it does need to be borne in mind.
My hope - such as it is - is that Dave can secure enough seats to give him the working majority in the House of Commons that both he, and the country, needs.
AP
May 1st, 2010 11:33pm Report this commentShame on me, but I didn't bother looking up Clegg's profile until now. Daddy is Chairman of a Bank, privately educated the whole way through and was a Partner in a political lobbying firm.
Talk about turning on your own!
Verity
May 2nd, 2010 1:19am Report this commentWonderful for His Age - Snap.
Verity's cats' pan
May 2nd, 2010 1:21am Report this commentTrevor's Den - Wha?
Verity's cat tray
May 2nd, 2010 1:34am Report this commentTrevor's Den - Crap.
djw2009
May 2nd, 2010 1:34am Report this commentDamn! Cameron may get a majority, and as a true conservative that is a repugnant result for me. Why this pathetic tax-and-spend Europhile multiculturalist was ever admitted to the Conservative Party in the first place I don't know. I hope his administration is a colossal failure. As Lenin said: the worse, the better.
strapworld
May 2nd, 2010 8:15am Report this commentSaints Alive! I have to be in OZ to read that Trevors Den Pickles has finally taken off his rose tinted spectacles! He is hoping for a majority of 1! Now will he accept that Cameron is not the man and that a real tory would have been in the 50=60% margins now?
The worst government led by a disastrous, useless ghastly individual and Cameron is flying around like a blue arsed fly hoping to fight off Cleggy!! It really shows what a ''leader'' he is!!
Peter Hitchins is correct in the Mail on Sunday. In three/four years (if that) we will all be calling in his 'contract' with us and wanting him out!!!!
Victor Southern
May 2nd, 2010 9:03am Report this commentdjw2009 - your comment shows that you are not a true conservative but rather a reactionary fossil.
It also shows that you lack patriotism since you wish ill on my country. Tories are always patriots.
Bill Rees
May 2nd, 2010 9:43am Report this commentI agree with all those who would like more conservatism from the Conservative Party.
On the other hand, my wife, who jets off to France today, posted her vote yesterday and voted Tory for the first time in her life. If Cameron had published a Thatcherite manifesto she wouldn't have done that.
Like many people, she wants a 'fair' society, and although that is a very wishy-washy concept, no party has a chance of gaining power that can't claim to believe in 'fairness' too.
Ian C
May 2nd, 2010 12:38pm Report this commentWe all want a fair society - the argument is over how you achieve it and what has to be compromised in its achievement.
Are some of you saying this is un- Conservative?
If so you're more stupid than you sound- all that bleating about Cameron who is the one chance we have of ridding ourselves, not just of Brown, but of Labour, once and for all, right now, this week, this Thursday. Wake up!!
stephen
May 2nd, 2010 12:51pm Report this commentAP
Re Turning on your own
Interesting research on Clegg did you find out if his wife is or has been a non Dom?
If so I wonder if Clegg has told Uncle Vince about this!
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