The Ulster effect

AKA Jorge etc

The BBC reports that David Cameron has gone ahead with his visit to the province in spite of the volcanic ash problems for flights so it will interesting to see if he can get a message across to Ulstmen in the face of the DUPs assertion that they are the ones to extract the maximum from the treasury.
The report notes that "the DUP, pointing to the possibility of a hung parliament, insist they are the party who will fight to ensure there are no cuts to Stormont's block grant."

alexsandr

OK
So that is Ulster analysed
What about Scotland and Wales?
Will there be a big swing from Labour to the nats?
Will the nats refuse to vote on devolved matters? (They SNP say yes)
could we have the nats supporting Labour on UK matters but abstaining on devolved matters giving the tories a majority?
And will the proce of supporting either party in commons votes be very high. Maybe the Barnet formula could be up for re-negotiation with a good result for Scotlans, Wales and NI
Ans what of the indies. There is the indy in Wyre forest, and maybe Esther in Luton. Any more likely?
I dont think this is simples at all. Expect to see David Butler pulling his hair out on election night!

AKA Jorge

"Mainland" voters - especially those in England - should take note from the foregoing that they should do their damnedest to forestall a hung parliament lest the new government be hampered at every turn by expensive demands from this interest group or that.

An indecisive result will be costly for all (underlined) UK taxpayers and undermine our power to provide a fair and balanced approach to the needs of the regions.

Sir Graphus

You touch on an interesting point, alexsandr. We've heard a great deal about hung parliaments, but little about the West Lothian dimension. A coalition would rule over purely English matters, Health, Education, but not be able to carry any bill with it English MPs. This is serious.

davidk

Truly, this is a sinister and desperate turn for the worst if Cameron is courting the Ulster Unionist (of all stripes) vote to get over the finishing line. Victory was never supposed to look like this.

AKA Jorge

Well, David Cameron has just given a really terrific speech in Ulster - a real blinder -and there's good reason to feel upbeat about the result without being overly optimistic.

The most impressive and persuasive element of the pitch was on the need to greater opportunities for NI political to participate at a higher level in Westminster politics, an arena from which many good Ulster folk have hitherto been excluded. He didn't fail either to pay tribute to the soldiers of the province who have always made a huge contribution in times of war, as now in Afghanistan.

He also stressed his commitment to the Union, something we would not expect from Nick Clegg.

AKA Jorge

davidk,

So you prefer Sean Woodward making a deal with the SDLP - not mention Blair's form love-in with Sinn Fein - do you?

Northern Ireland is, and will remain, part of the UK and its participation in the wider business of the UK is long overdue.

Dorothy Wilson

davidk: But didn't the Scottish votes keep Labour in power in the last election when the Conservatives gained the largest share in England?

Charente

"Truly, this is a sinister and desperate turn for the worst if Cameron is courting the Ulster Unionist (of all stripes) vote to get over the finishing line. Victory was never supposed to look like this."

Why sinister? What is sinister about pro union UK MPs holding the balance of power? Would you prefer the anti-British Labour/SDLP alliance or anti-Trident Clegg; or Sinn Fein?

davidk

Becoming hostages to the Unionist parties of Ulster is a high price to pay for electoral victory. I fear for the Tories that this decision will have dire consequences.

Outwith all of that, this move surely underlimes the lack of belief in the Cameron camp that they've got enough seats in the bag from hitting Labour and LD marginals.

Cormac Lucey

A Belfast Telegraph poll today concludes that the joint Ulster Unionists / Conservative ticket will win no seats at all.
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/election/exclusive-poll-dup-and-sinn-fein-are-neck-and-neck-in-the-race-for-votes-14792015.html

John Major once said that Britain no longer had "any selfish interest" in Northern Ireland. David Cameron has put British impartiality at risk with his mistaken political alliance with the UUP.

All in return for what?

AK Jorge

Cormac Lucey,

It will come as no surprise that C&UUP party will gain only 13% of the vote against 25% for Sin Fein and 26% but given that the stated aim of those two formations is to exploit a possible hung parliament to their own maximum advantage it is to be hoped that, in the interest of 'fairness for all' that the UK has majority which will allow it resist pressure or blackmail.

Neither the Sinn Fein nor the DUP is 'impartial' in their aims but a future British government has to be if taxpayers are to get a fair deal and not be subject to extortion.

Few expected, or expect, a significant advance in the polls but those of us who believe in Ulster's place in the United Kingdom will be pleased that David Cameron has attempted to us back on the map of UK politics and industry.

There are many here among us who tired to death of the endless jockeying between Republican-Nationalist and Loyalist and welcome recall of the larger arena which provides so many opportunities for our own people, Catholic and Protestant alike.

Charente

Why should a British government be 'impartial' towards British Citizens pray tell?

Ulsterman

The opinion poll looks bogus, I understand it is based on just 60 persons per constituency. But it's fair to say that the UUP-Tory alliance will be lucky to gain South Antrim from the DUP. Anything else looks pretty speculative. That seems to be the result of (a) the UUP's overall weakness and (b) Cameron's incautious remarks about public spending that the DUP has been highlighting like mad. I think the DUP will come back with 8, the CUs on 1, a possible Tory whip-taking independent down in Fermanagh and of course the anti-Tory Lady Hermon. So 10 possible votes maximum from Ulster for Cameron in a hung Parliament.

JohnAnt

If this is the only way to get a majority, so be it. But each time the Tories have had to deal with the NI Unionists, it's been a nightmare. Cameron may wish himself back in Opposition.
And none of this would be necessary at all if he'd only offered a referendum. A move that would sweep him into power.
Voters want to be consulted on EU supranational powers. Which bit of that doesn't he get?

Major Plonquer

I think the people of Britain should say a BIG thank you to the Ulster Orangemen who keep NI Green by getting out and walking.

I'd also like to encourage many on the Catholic side of NI to vote for Sinn Fein. These nice people don't land the taxpayer with immense expenses claims to take up their seats in Westminster.

AKA Jorge

Major Plonquer,

You have chosen exactly the right name for yourself - you really are worse than an idiot.

As matter of fact SF/IRA has cost the taxpayer billions in direct costs and billions in lost opportunities.

Of course nobody expects honest and sensible opinion from Labour stooges.

Cormac Lucey

AK Jorge - I take your point that many in Northern Ireland want to put the politics of sectarian headcounts behind them.

But I fail to see how David Cameron's intervention brings that goal any nearer. It all just looks like a respray of the UUP with some metropolitan chic and media savvy.

If Cameron or Reg Empey really wanted to break the mould they would have found an articulate catholic unionist as a candidate. Even the supposedly irremedial pre-1972 unionists had the political intelligence to appoint a catholic cabinet minister at Stormont (GB Newe).

Instead of this alliance breaking the mould and winning over some catholic votes for the unionist position, it has alienated Lady Sylivia Hermon. It is she (and her non-conservative low-key unionist politics) who is coming closest to breaking the mould i.e. she looks like she could actually win some votes from across the sectarian divide.

Cameron and Empey's alliance, by contrast, merely looks like a short-term stunt of convenience.

AKA Jorge etcetera

Cormac Lucey,

I take your point, up to a point, and that is that it is difficult, as you yourself would surely recognize, for Catholics to openly themselves with a unionist position, still less to take a leadership role.

It's tempting to engage in true blue-sky thinking and propose a non-sectarian union of north and south but that would only serve to unleash a volcano of vituperation on all sides, and it's not certain to me that any government of the south would want to take on the costs of the north.

It certainly would not please Sinn Fein's client state any more than that of the DUP, because a single state could and would drastically rationalize the dupicated costs of two into one.

That's somethin' that Peter Robinson might like ter keep in maind as he prepares ter make his pitch.

So, in my judgement, Cameron was bold in supporting the union and clever in bring Empey inside to shoulder the responsibility and it would be great if Catholics were to feel able to participate.