Election Night live blog
Peter Hoskin 9:39pm
0843, JGF: The result in Hampstead and Kilburn is remarkable. The local Lib Dems were convinced that they would win. But Glenda Jackson survives by 42 votes with the Tories in
second.
0639, PH: A dejected sounding speech from Nick Clegg.
0638, PH: Clegg says "this has been a disappointing night for the Lib Dems - and we obviously didn't achieve what we hoped to achieve."
0637, PH: In his acceptance speech, Nick Clegg is going big on the voting problems of last night.
0634, PH: Some good news for the Lib Dems: erm, Nick Clegg holds in Sheffield Hallam. With an increased majority.
0620, JGF: Jon Cruddas holds on, he'll have a big role to play in the Labour party machinations of the last few days.
0610, PH: The BBC are predicting a vote share of Con 37 percent, Lab 30 percent, Lib Dems 23 percent, and others 10 percent.
0605, JGF: One interesting thing about tonight's result is that the Tories have quite a comfortable majority of English seats.
0602, JGF: Sky predicting that the Tories have 309 seats, just short of what they would need to have more than Labourr and Lib Dems combined.
0558, PH: Nick Griffin achieves 6,620 votes in Barking - easily beaten into third place by the winner, Labour's Margaret Hodge, and the Tories.
0556, JGF: The Lib Dems' awful night continues as Zac Goldsmith wins Richmond Park. He's faced a real nasty campaign but has just out-campaigned his Lib Dem opponent, doing meeting after meeting.
0551, PH: So there we have it, the Greens have just gained their first MP: Caroline Lucas in Brighton Pavilion.
0549, JGF: Tories just took Sherwood, which needed an 8 percent plus swing. Fascinating how they have outperformed so much in some seats and underperformed in others.
0534, PH: The BBC's seat projection has the Tories on 306, Labour on 262, and the Lib Dems down to 55. That exit poll is suddenly looking pretty accurate.
0529, PH: Nick Robinson points out that, currently, Labour's vote share is lower than Michael Foot's in 1983.
0520, JGF: Charlotte Leslie has won in Bristol NW. She's close to the leadership and I expect that she'll be used to do a lot of media work by the party.
0510, PH: Labour hold on to Edgbaston, after all - one of their best results. And Hazel Blears has survived in Salford.
0507, JGF: The Guardian is reporting that ICM has a projected national vote share of Tories 37.7 percent, Labour 28.2 percent, Lib Dems 23.1 percent and others 11.1 percent.
0504, PH: Ashcroft thinks Tories will reach 300 seats, but unsure whether they will hit the "magical" 320 seats.
0504, PH: Ashcroft describes his involvment with the Tory operation as "quite an interesting experiment".
0503, PH: Ashcroft indicates that he'll give up his non-dom status to remain in the Lords.
0500, PH: Woah. Lord Ashcroft is being interviewed by Andrew Neil on the Beeb. The first question: "What's gone wrong?" And Ashcroft, tellingly, doesn't deny that the situation has "gone wrong". Instead, he blames the TV debates for shaking everything up.
0457, PH: Labour holds on to Westminster North - at Joanne Cash's expense. A major disappointment for the Tory leadership, given how much time and effort they've invested in her candidacy.
0455, JGF: This is one Labour loss I suspect the Brownites won't be crying over: Charles Clarke has lost his seat.
0453, PH: Ed Balls's acceptance speech is surprisingly gracious. His leadership bid is still on.
0450, PH: And Ed Balls does survive in Morley and Outwood - just. He gets 18,365 votes to Anthony Calvert's 17,364. A bittersweet result for the Tories.
0450, JGF: ITV saying that Shaun Bailey hasn't won which is a big blow to the Tories. Bailey has had several Cameron vists and been promoted by the party at every opportunity.
0437, PH: Sky are reporting that Ed Balls has survived.
0435, PH: Jacqui Smith looks shellshocked as the results are read out in Redditch. And with good cause: she gets 13k votes to the Tories' 19k. The former Home Secretary is an MP no more.
0430, PH: Classic. The BBC decline to give a vote share prediciton. It's too "unpredictable," says Dimbleby.
0429, PH: Tories bagging some seats from way down their target list: Warwickshire North and Cannock Chase are the latest.
0427, PH: Incredble. Labour have held on to Luton South - in the aftermath of Margaret Moran. Esther Rantzen could only scrape a measly 1,800 votes.
0424, JGF: The night just gets worse for the Lib Dems. Evan Harris loses Oxford West to the Tories.
0420, JGF: Tories hold St Albans despite expenses trouble.
0416, PH: A mischievous intervention from Rachel Johnson. She tweets:
"It's all gone tits up. Call for Boris."
She adds that Jo Johnson has "stormed it" in Orpington.
0411, PH: Michael Crick reinforces the idea that things are "very tight" in Morley and Outwood - says that there are rumblings about a recount.
0405, JGF: FiveThirtyEight is saying that the Lib Dems are, so far, beating Labour in terms of votes in England.
0401, JGF: Word is that the Tories are second in Barking, keeping the BNP in third. Simon Marcus has run a really gutsy, hardworking and brave campaign there. He has a bright future.
0358, PH: David Davis tells Sky that he still thinks the Tories will win an overall majority.
0355, JGF: This is odd, the Lib Dems have won Redcar which had a huge Labour majority. This was a seat people thought they would only win if they had a very good night, which they
haven't.
0349, JGF: Tories gain Romsey from the Lib Dems, this really is turning out to be a shocking night for the Lib Dems.
0349, PH: Ed Balls tells Sky that his seat is "looking tight".
0348, JGF: Tories gain Romsey from the Lib Dems, this really is turning out to be a shocking night for the Lib Dems.
0346, JGF: Louise Bagshawe wins in Corby, expect her to rise through the Tory ranks very quickly. Tory high command very impressed by her media skills.
0344, JGF: Michael Gove back with an increased majority.
0343, PH: The Tories have just won Carlisle, number 132 on their target list. The results are still very erratic: a bizarre cocktail of successes and disappointments for the Tories.
0339, PH: Labour (notional) hold in Rochdale. What happened to the Duffy Effect?
0335, FN: I wonder how many versions of tonight's speech Cameron drafted for tonight's speech in Witney? The cameras caught him going through a draft tonight. He said his party is "on target to win more seats at this election than we have any for about 80 years" - but the target was to win outright. It looks, right now, as if that target will be missed. It is clear that "the country wants change" as he says - but to what? If he thinks about entering talks with LibDems tomorrow, then he will find that his party won't wear it. "Can you imagine doing a deal with the LibDems?" Paxo asked Fox. No answer. Fox would rather resign than do a deal with the LibDems but he daren't say so tonight. David Miliband says "we are honour bound to recognise we are in a new situation ... That must be the right thing to do".
If I were Cameron I'd get to bed now. He won't be making any speeches outside National Theatre this morning. He will need all his energy and guile tomorrow.
In Scotland, the Tory uplift is as absent as the LibDem uplift in England. Darling, so often seen as a victim of the Tories on a uniform national swing, took a massive 70pc of the vote with a Tory-to-Labour swing. It's a good night for Labour in Scotland, no wonder Charlie Whelan likes to live there. It retook Dunfermline (lost in by-election, so BBC reporting it as Labour hold). Yet again, Scottish Tories are talking about the need to have a "long, hard think" about why they failed. (13 years of thinking and two years of collaborating with the nats don't seem to have helped.) No other seats have changed hands in my motherland so far (3.30am).
0330, PH: First bit of real positive news for the Lib Dems: they've taken Burnley from Labour.
0326, JGF: Tories gain Newton Abbot from the Lib Dems, a seat they needed a 4.75% swing from the Lib Dems to win. The results tonight just keep surprising us.
0318, JGF: Lib Dems miss out in Oxford East (Labour) and Worcestshire West (Tories). What is happening, has the hung parliament talk hurt them, was it the illegal immigrant amnesty or the classic third party squeeze?
0312, PH: ComRes's Election Predict tweets that "Ed Balls looks like he's going to hang onto his seat after all..."
0309, JGF: Tories take Dover, now have a 6K majority there. The Tories are doing very well across the South, the region where the state is the smallest proportion of the economy.
0308, PH: Alistair Darling holds onto his seat.
0303, PH: Noteworthy that Cameron's emphasis was on Labour losing, and not on the Tories winning. There was a clear note of uncertainty in his address.
0302, PH: Cameron: "Our country wants change ... and that change requires new leadership."
0301, PH: David Cameron says that Labour "has lost its mandate to govern".
0259, FN: In Scotland: Labour doing well, SNP badly and Tories may lose remaining seat. Will Cameron be first PM of a party with no Scotland seats?
0257, PH: Unbelievable, David Cameron has held on in Witney. As it happens, he scores a huge 33,973 votes, and 6%+ swing.
0250, PH: Hold on, there's a recount in Edgbaston.
0249, PH: The Labour performance is hardly anything to shout about, but there are a few strange high-points for them. For instance, Gisela Stuart has unexpectedly held on in Birmingham Edgbaston.
0248, JGF: Contrary to earlier rumours, the Lib Dems have gained Eastbourne. But the Tories have won Harrogate from theme, a seat they needed an 8 percent plus swing to win. The results are very localised but they aren't looking good for the Lib Dems.
0230, PH: A slight lull, as people ponder whether the exit poll was fairly accurate after all. The background battle of the evening is reducing to the Tories' call that Brown has to go against Labour's innuendo about a "progressive coalition".
0226, PH: The scorecard currently reads: Labour on 52 seats, Tories on 36, Lib Dems on 5, and others on 14. The Lib Dem performance is very underwhelming so far.
0223, PH: Montgomeryshire was 210th on the Tory target list. The swing was a whopping 13.2 percent.
0222, JGF: The Lib Dem nights goes from bad to worse as Lembit loses his seat to the Tories. So odd, the Lib Dems appear to be having a worse night than anyone would have expected even
before the TV debates.
0220, JGF: Tories have held Eastbourne, a seat that the Tories were writing off a fortnight ago. What has happened to the Lib Dems tonight, were their resources spread too thin after the Clegg surge?
0219, PH: More and more folk seem to be less sceptical about the exit poll now...
0218, JGF: Tories hold Crewe and Nantwich, real achievement for Edward Timpson.
0215, PH: Oliver Letwin holds onto his seat. Some Tories weren't confident about that earlier today.
0214, PH: Tory rumblings that they're doing well in Derby South - Margaret Beckett's seat. If they win there, it would really be quite extraordinary. They need a 14 percent swing. Might Beckett be the first major expenses victim of the evening?
0204, PH: Ben Bradshaw holds onto Exeter, despite a 6 percent swing to the Tories.
0201, PH: Channel 4's Cathy Newman tweets that things may be looking good for Zac Goldsmith:
"Senior Lib dem source: big tory turnout hurting them in south and zac may get in in richmond after all..."
0200, JGF: All day, there's been a sense in Tory circles that they'll get a majority or as good as. But there's now some real doubt creeping in. But the results are so unpredictable that we're just going to have to stay up.
0156, PH: Sky are reporting that the Conservatives have won Loughborough from Labour. It's number 30 on the Tory target list.
0154, PH: It's still early days, but the Lib Dems have to be slightly disappointed by their performance so far.
0153, JGF: Tories I spoke to this afternoon were writing off Guilford--accepting the Lib Dems would take it. But they've held it. On the other hand, Labour have held Tooting and Gedling.
0150, PH: 7 percent swing towards the Tories as they hold Guildford.
0150, JGF: Results are varying considerably from seat to seat, UNS is pretty useless tonight.
0141, FN: So will David Cameron have failed if this is a hung parliament? I asked him last week, and he replied "of course". He is right. Blair inspired an 10pc swing in 1997 - and that was against a Tory government that had just saved the economy. Cameron needs a 6pc swing tonight against a man who trashed the economy and is hugely unpopular. Right now, it seems he will struggle to get it.
All this takes us into the strange paradox where Cameron can inspire the greatest pro-Tory swing since 1931 and yet still fail. Such a verdict is cruel and possibly unfair. But it is the one which hangs over Cameron at this point in proceedings.
0138, PH: Brown: "My job, coming out of this election, is to make sure that I play my part in ensuring Britain has a strong, stable government." Does that mean he'll resign, then?
0136, JGF: Brown speech sounds valedictory.
0133, PH: Gordon Brown keeps his seat in Kirkaldy, with an extended majority. He doesn't look too pleased about it...
0132, PH: David Blunkett admits that it looks as though Labour have lost. But he adds that "anti-Tory" forces should unite against the Conservatives.
0130, PH: ConHome's Jonathan Isaby tweets that his sources say that Labour has held on in Tooting. The seat was numbered over 100
on the Tories' target list, but they were quite hopeful that they'd make it.
0126, PH: The results are coming in more quickly now. Current score is Labour on 12 seats, Tories on 4, Lib Dems on 2, and others on 7. The thing that's encouraging the Tories, though, is
the 8%+ swing in their direction.
0124, FN: Fascinating dividing line being drawn between Tories, who say the exit poll means "Cameron in, Brown out" and the Labour team trying to play the "progressive
coalition" card. David Miliband says: "Voters have given us an injunction to talk to each other". (As opposed to an injunction to take a running jump.) Blunkett, too, making wooing
noises. The Kingswood victory - one of the bellwether seats which indicates a Cam majority - does lead me to suspect the Tories will get to 326 in the end. But not for a few hours yet.
0120, JGF: BBC were backing away from exit poll. Now, rowing away.
0118, PH: Average Tory swing so far is 8.4 percent. Suggests that exit poll is way off.
0115, JGF: No surprise that Justine Greening holds her seat. Feel that CCHQ could have used her a lot more during the campaign.
0111, PH: Torbay result demonstrates just how the Tory vote is oscillating across the country. A swing of only 1.1 percent from the Lib Dems to the Tories. Lib Dems hold.
0109, FN: Ed Miliband on Sky: Exit poll means "a majority would have voted for fundamental reform of our voting system."
0104, PH: Chris Skidmore scored a 9.4 percent swing. That's some way over the 6.9 percent that the Tories need nationally for a majority.
0102, JGF: Chris Skidmore wins Kingswood, this is a seat the Tories needed to win for a majority and they have.
0059, PH: The Sky News twitter feed is reporting this:
"Downing St sources say Prime Minister will try to form coalition government in event of a hung parliament."
Ominous.
0053, JGF: The defeat of Peter Robinson is the biggest moment of the night so far. The DUP has problems - it is getting squeezed by the TUV and hurt by expenses. From a mainland perspective, the DUP had been telling people it would work with the Tories. The Alliance are linked to the Lib Dems.
0042, PH: The Guardian have this video of voter disgruntlement in Hackney:
0038, PH: Tim Montgomerie's sources quote Kate Hoey as saying that "if the results are as they look tonight, Gordon will go very, very quickly."
0030, PH: Reports that Caroline Lucas has won Brighton Pavilion. If so, she would be the first ever Green MP.
0028, PH: A few outlets are calling Edinburgh South for the Lib Dems. They were third in 2005.
0020, PH: The Guardian reports that the Tories are expect to win South Basildon and East Thurrock (17th on their target list).
0008, PH: One thing to look out for tonight is the size of the BNP vote. They've scored fairly eyecatching totals so far. If they get a fairly significant vote share, then it could dissuade people from backing PR.
0002, PH: The Electoral Commission is going to investigate the voting problems.
0001, PH: Reports that Tories are set to gain Battersea.
0000, FN: The Electoral Commission has the following rules when it comes to voting late in the day:
-- Anyone who has been issued with a ballot paper by 10 pm must be allowed to vote
-- However cannot issue after 10pm, even if elector was in a queue at 10pm
2356, PH: Weird line from David Miliband: "If no party has an overall majority in the House, then no party has a right to have a monopoly on power." So is he banning
minority government, then?
2350, PH: This story about voters being turned away is building. The Tories are calling for it to be "thoroughly investigated".
2341, PH: Another Sunderland seat - Sunderland Central - goes to Labour. Julie Elliot gets over 19,000 votes, and the Tories' Lee Martin gets around 12,000. The Tories did have
some hopes for this seat, so they'll be a little disappointed that it got their smallest swing of the evening so far: 4.8 percent.
2340, PH: George Osborne says that, going off the exit polls, "it's clear that Labour cannot continue in government."
2338, FN: Reports say voters turned away in Hackney, Hull & Lewisham as well as Sheffield. This inability to cope could be issue if election is close.
2336, JGF: Let's wait for a marginal seat but so far the swing is suggesting that the exit poll is off, as so many people said at the time.
2337, PH: Second result of the night is in, and it's 2-0 to Labour. Sharon Hodgson holds Washington and Sunderland West with a hefty majority. But the swing to the Tories is an even more hefty 11.6 percent.
2325, JGF: In the US, if you are in the queue when the polls close you can vote. Sensible policy that we should introduce here.
2308, PH: Curiouser and curiouser. A revised exit poll has the Tories on 305 seats, Labour on 255, the Lib Dems on 61, and others on 29. The Lib Dems have gained
two seats, and the Tories have lost two, from the last poll.
2303, PH: Alastair Campbell is still spinning with a vengeance:
"If we are in to hung parliament territory and stopping the Tories getting a majority then this would be an amazing result."
Meanwhile, the Tories keep stressing that the exit poll would represent Labour's biggest loss of seats since 1931.
2253, PH: The first result of the night is in, and Labour hold Houghton and Sunderland South. Bridgit Philipson wins with 19,137 votes (over 50 percent). The Tories are in second with
8,147 votes (21 percent). The swing to the Tories, from the last election, is 8.4 percent - over the total that they need nationally for a majority.
2243, JGF: Here is what Clegg told this magazine about how he would deal with a hung parliament:
"I want to try and establish a basic principle which is that on the whole, on the whole, by and large, even if a party doesn’t have an outright majority it is usually flamingly
obvious which party the British people favour and I think in those circumstances, what I’ve said is that that party has the moral right, if you like, to seek to govern either on its own or to
reach out with others."
2240, PH: Alan Johnson is talking up the areas of "agreement" between Labour and the Lib Dems.
2236, PH: If you're wondering why the exit poll only shows seat totals, not vote percentage, then I direct you to Anthony Wells, writing earlier:
"The aim of the exit poll is to predict the seat totals, not the share of the vote, and the team will try to work out if there are different shifts in support in different types of seat. The call is based on a probability of each seat going one way or the other, all summed up to make a seat total."
But John Rentoul has done the working using electoral calculus, to come up with: Tories, 37; Labour, 29, Lib Dems, 23.
2230, PH: Eric Pickles says his "gut instinct" is that the exit poll is "probably wrong". Someone's going to end up with egg on their faces, you feel - either the Westminster pundits, or the pollsters.
2227, JGF: Vince Cable is saying that no party has 'legitimacy' if the exit poll is correct. But Clegg always said that the party with the most votes and the most seats would have
a right to seek to form a government. Indeed, I think his language was stronger in his Spectator interview.
2220, PH: Cameron has said that the Tories could govern with the exit poll result. They would do "everything possible," apparently.
2215, PH: Tories on TV are spinning the exit poll as a "decisive rejection of Gordon Brown". But I suspect they're highly ambivalent, even sceptical, about it.
2210, PH: Labour politicos on TV still look stoney-faced, even after that exit poll. There seems to be widespread disbelief that the final count will match it.
2203, JGF: The exit poll contrasts with the mood from both the Tories and the Lib Dems. One Lib Dem source told me a few hours ago they were expecting to get close to a hundred seats and this exit poll has them losing seats.
2200, PH: The exit poll is out, and it points to a hung parliament with the Tories as the largest party. They're on 307 seats, Labour on 255, the Lib Dems on 59, and others on 29. The low Lib Dem support does make one sceptical.
2137, PH: So here we are, CoffeeHousers: the big one, decision time, etc. First news to report is this ICM rumour that an exit poll has the Tories on 39 percent. That's overall majority territory.
Previous
Lizzy
May 6th, 2010 9:44pm Report this commentGoing for the first spot on election night. This may be a rumour but this is what I am expecting to happen.
Go for it DC and oil in the Falklands. This is going to be a very interesting night.
se1man
May 6th, 2010 9:48pm Report this commentwe've been called twice in the last hour by smeone from the Labour Party asking us whether we have voted yet.
They must be really desperate!
Tiberius
May 6th, 2010 9:55pm Report this commentGood evening to friend and foe alike.
After a tiring day campaigning, adrenalin will kick in soon, no doubt. Hope you've got a bottle of malt at your side, Fergus - I know I have.
Over to the returning officers.
Ravi
May 6th, 2010 9:55pm Report this commentUm, is it not a criminal offense to provide the result of an exit poll before the polls close? They are still open!!
Lizzy
May 6th, 2010 10:03pm Report this commentThat Lib Dem number can't be correct surely? This is far too low.
Vulture
May 6th, 2010 10:06pm Report this commentAre you there Fatarse and Dickie? Your boys are out on their ears! We're free of Gordon the moron.
AndyinBrum
May 6th, 2010 10:11pm Report this commentSounds like a massive turnout, especially in Birmingham
Nicholas
May 6th, 2010 10:18pm Report this commentHa! BBC spinning like mad for a hung parliament with their dodgy exit poll and Nick Robinson telling us all how Brown could still hang on. Bastards.
stephen
May 6th, 2010 10:24pm Report this comment£ down 2.32% Hedgies circling!
davidk
May 6th, 2010 10:26pm Report this commentWheels have fallen off the Cameron bandwagon.
Not good for the Tories. If this exit poll holds firm it's a disaster.
steve
May 6th, 2010 10:28pm Report this commentExit poll looks out by about 50 seats on the Lib dems ?? So which of the other two parties will have to make up the difference ? Or did the Lib dem thing just collapse ?
An interesting night ahead.
Alexandrovich
May 6th, 2010 10:30pm Report this commentGood grief! Paxman has just asked Ed Davey if he'd get into bed with Peter Mandelson.
Wilhelm
May 6th, 2010 10:40pm Report this commentFunny how liebours got a death bed conversion to proportional representation just to cling on to power by their finger tips
PayDirt
May 6th, 2010 10:41pm Report this commentWhat's this crap about Falklands oil? More to the point, the Texas coastline is awash with BP's oil. BP are in for a hiding and no amount of oil droplets offshore Argentina will save them. Beyond Petroleum indeed.
TrevorsDen
May 6th, 2010 10:45pm Report this commentThe pollsters have already got it wrong, if the exit poll is right than all the other pollsters have been wrong in the pre election polls. I am told the figures were 38-28-23. UNS gives labour a few less seats than the exit poll and LDs a few more.
Lizzy
May 6th, 2010 10:48pm Report this commentKinnock getting a bit crabby on ITV. Sunderland about to call. Just a thought re Lib Dem - was Cleggmania a media invention? Was there actually never a real surge in interest? I did note his public scrums seemed to involve a helluva lot of cameramen.
Mad Hattie talking utter drivel.
stephen
May 6th, 2010 10:49pm Report this commentHang on lets look at the math
If exit poll right yes Tories are short of 326 seats needed but 5 Sin F never attend and Dave has a deal with 9 or 10 Unionists if my maths is right that takes Dave past Labour and fellow travelling Lib Dems combined.
David B
May 6th, 2010 10:56pm Report this commentSunderland predicted the result in 1992, lets hope it does it again
deVoter
May 6th, 2010 10:58pm Report this commentThis feels like a night to remember, like 1989 in Eastern Europe when the people finally got rid of their oppressors, after years and years of Socialist diktat. Freedom! Brown, Balls & Co banished, for ever, good riddance, am I dreaming?
SUSAN HILL
May 6th, 2010 10:59pm Report this commentThat is quite a big majority - Sunderland has always been solid Labour and they seem as solid as ever.
Gil
May 6th, 2010 11:02pm Report this commentDimbleby is an utter disgrace! He just made a sarcastic comment that any deal the Tories make with the DUP will be 'at the expense of the rest of the UK'! So the fact that the Scots can decide what happens in England but we can't do the same for Scotland doesn't count for him. I can't believe this bias!
AndyinBrum
May 6th, 2010 11:04pm Report this commentSusan, it's less than it was. Interesting to see the number of votes the BNP get in these seats.
Jez
May 6th, 2010 11:11pm Report this commentHa Ha Ha!
AndyinBrum, are you a Bigot?!
(Joking.)
SUSAN HILL
May 6th, 2010 11:13pm Report this commentAh, I hadn`t checked the figures. BNP is going to do extremely well evenn if they can't win actual seats.. which is sad but inevitable. People who are derided and despised as merely 'bigots' have felt they could not get a hearing from anyone else so they turn almost in desperation to the BNP.It's a grave reflection of all the main parties' refusal to address what is in some areas the most burning issue of all.
AndyinBrum
May 6th, 2010 11:13pm Report this commentJez, probably under Gordon's rules.
AndyinBrum
May 6th, 2010 11:18pm Report this commentMs Hill, I fear you're right
TGF UKIP
May 6th, 2010 11:18pm Report this commentA lot of spinning from JGF but he can't disguise that anything like the exit poll is a massive Cameron failure.
Nicholas Hallam
May 6th, 2010 11:22pm Report this commentIf the poll percentages are near C 38% Lab 28% LD 23% as rumoured, the big failure of the evening is converting that to likely seats.
General Zod
May 6th, 2010 11:22pm Report this commentSusan, it was an eight per cent swing to the Tories! That result is very bad news for Labour.
The exit poll leave Lab-Lib ten short of a majority. Brown is finshed, dickie and fatso and so are you two.
SUSAN HILL
May 6th, 2010 11:23pm Report this commentAndyinBrum No, Susan is fine !
Lizzy
May 6th, 2010 11:23pm Report this commentAnn Widdicombe on ITV - "the polls stink". She ythinks LDs should be a bit higher. Ashdown agrees (0bviously) but says he thinks Tories should be higher.
CS
May 6th, 2010 11:24pm Report this commentHad to queue for the first time ever at the polling station today (for about 30 mins) but can't understand the BBC's outrage at people not getting to vote. The polls are open from 7am to 10pm. Get off your arses if you want to vote.
SUSAN HILL
May 6th, 2010 11:24pm Report this commentTGF UKIP Exit Polls, Exit Schmolls.I`d say anything to an exit pollster if I ever met one - anything but the truth that is. I`d probably tell them I voted for Bill Boakes (deceased.)
SUSAN HILL
May 6th, 2010 11:25pm Report this commentThis is a very slow blog. I might have to go and watch TV.
Steven
May 6th, 2010 11:26pm Report this commentI can't believe that the whole UK economy is currently dependent upon one dodgy exit poll. Sterling is tanking, the Gilt market is probably going to see a major sell of before the final result is in. Seriously, can't someone do another exit poll, perhaps focusing on marginal seats. It can't cost that much.
Gil
May 6th, 2010 11:27pm Report this commentNick Robinson and David Dimbleby now saying (and closely following Harman) that there should be a legal challenge in the constituencies where people couldn't vote. Can anyone remind me whether Dimbleby and Robinson wanted to mount a legal challenge on the postal votes scandal or duplicate address scandal?
General Zod
May 6th, 2010 11:28pm Report this commentWashington & Sunderland West: 11.6% swing to the Tories.
Labour are dead.
Lizzy
May 6th, 2010 11:28pm Report this commentSunderland West Labour hold but an 11.6% swing to the Tories!!
Tiberius
May 6th, 2010 11:28pm Report this commentTGF: are you watching the swing?
PeterH
May 6th, 2010 11:29pm Report this commentOkay - so that is the number of seats - what are the percentage shares? High LD share of vote and low seat proves the flaws in the electoral the system. Also I understand that the exit was based on 130 polling stations - not a hugely robust sample.
DavidDP
May 6th, 2010 11:29pm Report this comment"anything like the exit poll is a massive Cameron failure."
The exit poll would be the largets swing the Tories have had since at least 1945.
That's no failure. That it's not enough to win outright is more a result of the fact that thanks to his predecessors pandering to the right of the party, Cameron started the race about 3 laps down.
Augustus
May 6th, 2010 11:30pm Report this commentCameron inroads underestimated!
Derek
May 6th, 2010 11:32pm Report this commentBBC World Service radio is, so far, keeping quiet about the swing.
Tiberius
May 6th, 2010 11:32pm Report this commentAndy in Brum: I bet you're waiting for Edgbaston - due about 12.30, I believe.
Thomas Kell
May 6th, 2010 11:36pm Report this commentLabour's Epitaph: can't even organise an election. Is that 26 year old from Sunderland the Prime Minister at the moment? Could be worse... it was...
SUSAN HILL
May 6th, 2010 11:36pm Report this commentEdgbaston has to go to the Tories.
AndyinBrum
May 6th, 2010 11:38pm Report this commentTib, I'm going to try & get sleep, plus I'm working all weekend So I'll probably switch off soon. As a Tory boy I hope we do get edgbaston but I'm only interested in Balls (oo er missus etc)
@Susan Hill the blogs slow because little's happening at the mo.
Derek
May 6th, 2010 11:39pm Report this commentOk. They've just had someone comment on the swing - and its considerable significance if it is a nationwide trend.
Graham Booth
May 6th, 2010 11:40pm Report this commentAs Susan says, this is rather a slow blog; I'm not sure I can face election night on the TV, however. Is it bearvle, with the rent-a-sleb fest on the BBC. Why should they imagine that anyone might be interested in what Ben Kingsley thinks about politics? Ask him about the role of animal imagery in Shakespearean tragedy by all means, but politics?
Never could understand this sleb's opinion stuff. If I turn the telly on I know I'll just start fuming and hurling stuff at the screen.
Verity
May 6th, 2010 11:41pm Report this commentSarah Palin now turnng against Britain because of BP, and she does know what she's talking about. I think Alaksa is an even bigger oil-producing state than Texas; or if not, it's second. And her husband worked for BP offshore for 18 years, so she knows whereof she speaks.
With Obama in office, we cannot afford to lose powerful friends in the US.
Alexandrovich
May 6th, 2010 11:48pm Report this commentInteresting - BNP beat UKIP in the first three results.
Tiberius
May 6th, 2010 11:48pm Report this commentPeople: watch ITV. Less crap to make your blood boil (and Mary Nightingale and Katie Derham are on).
TrevorsDen
May 6th, 2010 11:48pm Report this comment55 swing in the other Sunderland seat -- but I think we should be careful as this is a reconstructed seat and the comparisons are notional. But is shows the variety you get between seats. But even then the average is I reckon about 8%.
Lizzy
May 6th, 2010 11:49pm Report this commentI know there's been a big turnout but how have all these people in what on the face of it seems like Labour seats tipping up at the polling station late on and not getting in to vote. Polls open early enough in the morning so why so late? What's going on?
TrevorsDen
May 6th, 2010 11:49pm Report this comment5% !!!
SUSAN HILL
May 6th, 2010 11:53pm Report this commentBen Kingsley, like all Luvvies of that ilk, is all leftie. They drive me nuts because they go entirely on sentimental 'Left cares about the little man/the people. Tories are all nasty and kill foxes and want everyone hung and flogged.'
I will stick here and anyway I can have the laptop in bed and zzzz occasionally.. TV is downstairs and it's cold.
Snowman
May 6th, 2010 11:54pm Report this commentJust in case you’ve forgotten:
Labour’s just about holding on to the 2nd place (popular vote), no overall Commons majority for any of the three preferred runners, and a surprising boost in popular vote for the two parties everyone looks down upon – UKIP and the BNP.
we talk again in the morning.
TrevorsDen
May 6th, 2010 11:54pm Report this commentI am afraid all the TV coverage is bum. Having said that I am too afraid to watch SKY due to the fawning patronising possible presence of kay Burley.
RJ
May 6th, 2010 11:55pm Report this commentHi all.
Holy moly at the queueing fiasco - Manchester, Surrey, Islington, Sheffield. Hundreds denied vote! Some official saying voters have turned up with no card and have caused delays.
Court cases anyone?
Nicholas Hallam
May 6th, 2010 11:56pm Report this commentVery fine actor Sir Ben (is it?). He can be forgiven his conventional luvvie views.
Simon Stephenson
May 6th, 2010 11:57pm Report this commentGraham Booth : 11.40pm
I don't know why you're so curmudgeonly about celebrity prominence. For thousands of years all sorts of people voiced all sorts of opinions, and in order to sort out the wheat from the chaff a great deal of cerebral activity was required.
How much more straightforward it is instead merely to have to ascertain who amongst the opinion-givers:-
1. strums a guitar, or
2. reads an autocue on the telly, or
3. kicks a football for England, or
4. has an enormous and well-known pair of bazookas.
It's progress, innit?
Frank P
May 7th, 2010 12:06am Report this commentStudents in Sheffield and Birmingham turning up without ballot papers just before closing time and causing havoc; a rig up. Pre-planned, obviously. A novel way of gerrymandering and throwing confusion into the melee. The City boys are betting on a Tory working majority.
TGF UKIP
May 7th, 2010 12:07am Report this commentTiberius, calm down dear, 4.8% might just be your bucket of water. Let's wait a bit, shall we.
Graham Booth
May 7th, 2010 12:09am Report this commentSimon - of course, the inclusive BBC has to pander to popular taste, and in an era when the Daily Star refers to people we are supposed to be familiar with by their first names, in headlines which ignore real stories, small wonder we have the sleb-fest. I suppose it could be worse than Ben Kingsley; 'so, tell me Wayne, what do you feel the effects of the tories proposal to take £6bn out of the economy might have on jobs?'
Yes, I'm with Susan - or rather I'm in bed with my laptop, here in chilly south Norfolk.
Richard of York
May 7th, 2010 12:13am Report this commentHatye to say it speccies but old Ricjie boy has been right all along....Lab/Lib pact and Shameron dodging the bowies down Kensington High st
Happy Day!
PayDirt
May 7th, 2010 12:18am Report this commentVerity: who gives a monkey's about S Palin? Should feel sorry for BP though, they are getting the rap but it was the US made and supplied equipment that failed I'd wager. A good British company on the ropes. Hope they have good insurance. Back to the election?
SUSAN HILL
May 7th, 2010 12:20am Report this commentRichard of York. What are you talking about ? We have had no marginal results yet. Exit polls mean nothing. Safe seats mean little. Do grow up and crow when/if there is something to crow about and if not, maintain a dignified silence.
Tiberius
May 7th, 2010 12:22am Report this commentI was merely referring to the exit poll swing, TGF mate.
The Sunderland results are hold-your-breaths.
General Zod
May 7th, 2010 12:23am Report this commentVerity, Palin is like you, but without the brain (addled though it appears to be) that allows you to articulate your misanthropic message. Palin is educationally subnormal.
Richard of York
May 7th, 2010 12:24am Report this commentOld Oik and Pickles crying foul already...lol Happy Days!
Dirty Euro
May 7th, 2010 12:25am Report this commentI demand the tories resign. They have been rejected despite every piece of the media supporting them. Resign all tories now!
Tories resign now1
Frank P
May 7th, 2010 12:26am Report this commentA real classic from Simon Hughes "The Tories can't have it both ways".
So now the liberals has a monopoly on switch-hitting?
Verity
May 7th, 2010 12:26am Report this commentSnowman writes: "... and a surprising boost in popular vote for the two parties everyone looks down upon – UKIP and the BNP."
Surprise?
Surprise?
Do you refer to the "surprise" that we have all been predicting for the last six months?
Derek
May 7th, 2010 12:27am Report this commentSarah Palin has got it wrong. The responsibility for ensuring that the spill didn't happen was contracted to a leading company in the field, Transocean - a Swiss company.
tenpin
May 7th, 2010 12:30am Report this commentPeople have voted for Labour??? WTF???
Lizzy
May 7th, 2010 12:31am Report this commentFrank P agree. All of those polling stations appear to be in Labour constituencies (am prepared to be corrected). A flash mobbing to attempt to discredit the poll in those areas.
Labour saying they will not step down if DC wins on minority.
What with dodgy postal votes, gerrymanderinmg of boundaries and now attempts to rig the polls this is getting very worrying.
Richard of York
May 7th, 2010 12:34am Report this comment@Susan
No I will crow all I like...you dont even have a seat yet.
Happy Days!
DavidDP
May 7th, 2010 12:38am Report this comment"Sarah Palin now turnng against Britain because of BP, and she does know what she's talking about."
That would be a first. And let's face it, unlikely.
Richard of York - there is more likely to be a Lib-Tory coalition, given the results of forced choice polling between choosing a Labour or Tory government shows the Tories to be the overwhelmingly preferred choice.
Still, if you don't like democracy......
Graham Booth
May 7th, 2010 12:43am Report this commentSo, gaining battles in vain is what your blogname suggests. How appropriate that my favourite Labour MP Kate Hoey has just said she expects Gorgon to go 'very, very quickly'
(Cries of 'A Horse! A Horse! My Kingdom for etc etc)
DavidDP
May 7th, 2010 12:48am Report this comment"They have been rejected"
If they've been rejected, what does that say about the other two parties who got even less votes?
Dirty Euro
May 7th, 2010 12:50am Report this commentI saw today people are 2% neanderthal.
The BNP got 1% of the vote. So where did the other 1% come form.
Verity
May 7th, 2010 12:51am Report this commentGeneral Zod, Sarah Palin was elected chief executive of the largest state (and one of the two richest in oil) in the US. Elected. By the citizenry at the ballot polls.
In what way does this earn your derision?
Have you ever had the nerve to stand for election to anything? ... never mind the governance of an American state?
You just don't get it, do you? Ever been outside Britain, other than over on the ferry to Dieppe for a day out in a foreign country?
Sarah Palin was the chief executive officer of (can't be bothered to look up the figures) a gigantic enterprise called Alaska. She negotiated a deal with Alberta ... another giant producer of oil ... for a pipeline. No one had done this before. This was imaginative and daring. Do you have the faintest notion of how big Alberta is?
Could you wipe that dribble off your chin, please? It's putting me off my whisky.
TGF UKIP
May 7th, 2010 12:51am Report this commentTiberius, exactly and weren't you just getting a wee bit carried away until Sundeland Central came along with a mere 4.8% swing?
Just one further cautionary note about the exit poll which must by definition have been terminated by 9 pm at the latest. I note, though, that the vast majority of the faces in the queues were of young student types not exactly Tory type voters. Perhaps, a factor in urban marginals?
deVoter
May 7th, 2010 12:53am Report this commentSo in Brown's Socialist's paradise, the public servants cannot even manage an election: running out of voting papers, turning away voters 40 minutes before closing time (due to length of queue! how redolent of Socialism at large), getting the police to disperse the crowds of would-be voters, saying people should have come at 9am, not 9pm. Crap. From a crap Govt.
Richard of York
May 7th, 2010 1:00am Report this commentAll those polls were crap...exit poll shows Con 36.5 Lab 32.4 Lib 25.2
all that wasted money.....why does anyone take any notice of these people.....unless of course its deliberate and they are trying to sway the electorate????
Buying the vote with Ashcroft money will never work the public are too clever.
Happy Days!!
Alexandrovich
May 7th, 2010 1:03am Report this commentSo, Mr. Clegg, any regrets about your amnesty for illegals?
DavidDP
May 7th, 2010 1:04am Report this commentWhich suggests, Richard, more support for a Lib Tory coalition at a combined 61 percent of the vote, compared to a Lib-Lab combined 57 percent.
Verity
May 7th, 2010 1:05am Report this commentDerek - Fair enough. I didn't know that. And Palin, no longer Governor of Alaska, and never having had an interest in the Gulf of Mexico, 6,000 miles away, probably didn't either.
Don't we have any results yet?
Tom Pride
May 7th, 2010 1:06am Report this commentRichard
Worked in Kingswood!
GDT
May 7th, 2010 1:06am Report this commentKingswood - from Lab to Con - 6.9% swing - get in!
TGF UKIP
May 7th, 2010 1:10am Report this commentTiberius, what really should give you some cheer is the 9.1% swing in Darlington a town I know well and where Fallon was MP from 83 to 1992, combined with 8.9% in Durham North, should give you some cause for hope in the Lancs and W. Yorks marginals.
Tiberius
May 7th, 2010 1:16am Report this commentVery graciously put, mate, but while we're being a little "honest", Torbay is a disappointment. But then a 10% swing in Putney!
DavidDP
May 7th, 2010 1:19am Report this commentTories getting huge swings from Labour, but less so where the main challenge is the LibDems it seems.
DavidDP
May 7th, 2010 1:28am Report this commentWhat happened in Vale of Clywd?
Charlie T
May 7th, 2010 1:28am Report this commentIts over already.Labour have tanked (in England at least) and the Lib Dem surge was a mirage (as I predicted).There will be a small but clear Tory majority.
Tom Pride
May 7th, 2010 1:30am Report this commentBlunkett says his instinct is Labour has lost with Tory majority.
DavidDP
May 7th, 2010 1:31am Report this comment12% swing to the Tories in Sedgefield. What a marvelous job Cameron has done. Damn shame he had to start so far back.
TrevorsDen
May 7th, 2010 1:31am Report this commentLabour are doing a passable impersonation of Monty Pythons black Night.
Question is just how gullible are the LibDems. Labour are talking about suddenly finding they are in love with parliamentary reform ... are LDs daft enough to believe that and are they daft enough to work with Brown??
Tiberius
May 7th, 2010 1:38am Report this commentBrown is an insufferable mental case. His speech to his constituents is just full of sh*t.
PayDirt
May 7th, 2010 1:41am Report this commentGordon B has said he's proud of the record numbers of Police he has provided, but why has this country needed more Police? Because it is failing, because there in fact is more criminality, to keep us in check?
TrevorsDen
May 7th, 2010 1:41am Report this commentBrown rabbiting on as usual; great things done he says - but he does not mention the £90 billion structural deficit he has run up doing it. Delusional.
But clearly now he hopes to do a dirty deal with the LDs.
Tom Pride
May 7th, 2010 1:41am Report this commentTiberius
I wish to God he would stay up there in his constituency and spare us anymore of his lies.
molly
May 7th, 2010 1:42am Report this commentGripping. I am following from the Pantanal in southern Brazil - who´s more remote?
Tiberius
May 7th, 2010 1:49am Report this commentLabour bleating about Ashcroft money being unfair; funny they don't mention the 15 odd seat starting advantage the constituency boundaries give them, or the BBC political editor having a nickname that doesn't mean he has regular pedicures.
Hysteria
May 7th, 2010 1:52am Report this commentcould turn out great - hung parliament, with GB and the other guy,wossisname, stitching a deal - they get screwed when the euro and debt crisis blows up, and the Tories sweep to power in 8 months time.................
I'll get me coat
DavidDP
May 7th, 2010 1:52am Report this comment"and that was against a Tory government that had just saved the economy"
but seen as utterly out of touch and nasty. And it took 10 years before the party made a real attempt to overturn that image. Had it started for the 2005 election, then Cameron, or whoever the leader would have been, would have been in a better position.
Tiberius
May 7th, 2010 1:53am Report this commentAre you still in fear of the Ghost of Christmas Yet To Come, Fraser? ;)
TGF UKIP
May 7th, 2010 2:13am Report this commentWell, Tiberius, not looking so good for your boy now is it?
John Shields
May 7th, 2010 2:16am Report this commentWhy is it that commentators keep on saying that the Conservatives haven't the public's confidence if they are short of an overall majority? They'll still be the largest party by miles!
djw2009
May 7th, 2010 2:18am Report this commentThe Cameron project has failed. He has turned off millions of traditional Conservative voters, but has not gained the centre ground voters to compensate. The Conservatives simply should have done much better than the first 100+ seats showed.
Tiberius
May 7th, 2010 2:23am Report this commentHey, Lembit Opik out plus further Con gains, mate. Got Tamworth, finally.
Peter Crawford
May 7th, 2010 2:32am Report this commentThe receiving officer in Basildon South and Thurrock can't speak English...remarkable...
Right On
May 7th, 2010 2:45am Report this commentWell looks like the country is going to wake up to Gordon Brown as PM.
They are are just not winning the seats that they need to win.
djw2009
May 7th, 2010 2:48am Report this commentYes, I noticed how many people with poor English are now employed in public-sector sinecures announcing election results.
Tiberius
May 7th, 2010 2:58am Report this commentIf Gisela Stuart holds Edgbaston, it can only be because the inhabitants of that leafy green area like her anti-European stance.
djw2009
May 7th, 2010 3:00am Report this commentI'm just watching the complete moron reading out the Witney count results. He obviously has difficulty with numbers, so 33,973 for Cameron is read out as three-three-nine-seven-three. Why don't these people take O levels in maths before reading out such "difficult" numbers. This man obviously does not understand place value in numbers.
Verity
May 7th, 2010 3:02am Report this commentGosh, djw2009 - do you think this happened in error? Carelessness?
Or cold, manipulative aggression against our ancient, Anglo-Saxon and Celtic islands?
Frankly, I'd swill any of them without a stake in our country, as in a corner shop, a service company, out. Let them do the same jobs in Bangladesh, where they surely must have an equal need. What do you mean, no? This infects the bloodstream of Britain and not Bangladesh or Pakistan or Afghanistan or Papua New Guinea or S Korea, or Tibet or ... you get the message. Why is this virus in the mainstream of Britain alone?
How did our immigration "services " (ironic) fail us? Out of over 300 countries, we are the only ones so infected.
Anything to do with Blair and Brown using third worlders as a weapon against the owners of this property ... our ancient Britain?
djw2009
May 7th, 2010 3:03am Report this commentNone of the TV channels "dare" to issue a proper forecast. Normally at this point, more than 5 hours after polls close, they would be plugging the 180+ results into their swingometers, working out the average swings, and projecting that average across the whole country to give a better forecast than could be done with exit polls alone. Where are the swingometers? Where are the forecasts? The TV coverage is simply a list of results with zero analysis.
Verity in Despair
May 7th, 2010 3:13am Report this commentdjw2009 - because they didn't qualify for 'O' levels even in today's degraded system where you can get an O level in media studies ... oh, wait a minute ... that was five years ago and media studies by this point looks pretty elevated! Now, the socialist education establishment may be offering an O-Level in Celebrity Cellulite Awareness.
Tiberius
May 7th, 2010 3:16am Report this commentdjw 2009: I'm watching ITV and thought their muted projections to be down to a lack of money for gizmos.
DavidDP
May 7th, 2010 3:22am Report this comment"The Tories are doing very well across the South, the region where the state is the smallest proportion of the economy."
Interesting. In the US, the Republicans do best where people receive more government money.
But a horrific divide appears to be happening where those places that Labour has made dependent on the state vote for a party that pledges more money, while the people who give the money are saying no more.
djw2009
May 7th, 2010 3:25am Report this commentMore than one-third of the seats have been declared, and none of the channels has moved on from the exit poll forecast. Bring back Peter Snow!
DavidDP
May 7th, 2010 3:40am Report this comment"Tories are talking about the need to have a "long, hard think" about why they failed."
It's clear the ghost of Thatcher haunts them. I suspect they'll never recover now. If the Labour vote can go up at a time like this, then Scotland will never vote Tory again.
DavidDP
May 7th, 2010 3:42am Report this commentI think the political system has snapped.
Tiberius
May 7th, 2010 3:42am Report this commentDavidDP: I think you make the point very well that New Labour has established a client state that is very difficult to overturn. The LibDems can't break into it either, despite their polling.
djw2009
May 7th, 2010 3:44am Report this commentRochdale: The "bigots" are stupid enough to vote labour. Turkeys voting for Christmas!
djw2009
May 7th, 2010 3:45am Report this commentHaving the largest numbers of seats does not equate to a mandate to govern. The FPTP system already has a low bar to victory, allowing a party with 37% support to get a majority in the commons. If you can't even get a majority under such a favourable system, then you can't claim a plurality means you have the right to rule. Cameron - SUCK IT UP!
DavidDP
May 7th, 2010 3:47am Report this commentThing is, Tiberius, you can't run a country like that.
The US just about manages because bizarrely, the party that wants to cut spending is the one that is locked in for the states that are most dependent on it. As such, there is a sort of counter effect. But here in the UK, it's could be country-breaking. You'll literally have half the country resentful of the other half.
Verity
May 7th, 2010 3:54am Report this commentDavid DP - "But here in the UK, it's could be country-breaking. You'll literally have half the country resentful of the other half."
Oh, gosh. Really?
djw2009
May 7th, 2010 3:56am Report this comment307 results - nearly half of the whole thing - and no forecast yet. Is this just timidity on behalf of TV stations who don't want to get it wrong? Their coverage is awful.
DavidDP
May 7th, 2010 3:57am Report this commentThe Tories might be suffering from a lack of tactical voting in Lib/Lab contests; voting LibDem in those areas might have made a difference.
Lee Jakeman
May 7th, 2010 4:01am Report this commentIsn't Redcar where they recently lost the steelworks? Perhaps that will explain the poor Labour performance.
djw2009
May 7th, 2010 4:04am Report this commentOK, seeing as Dimplebottom (Dimbleby) et al have no clear what the result will be, let me try. 325 results out, with 155 Tories. As this is half of the results, and as the Tory seats are more rural and declare later, they should do better in the second half of the results table. So at least 310 to the Tories.
DavidDP
May 7th, 2010 4:05am Report this comment"Is this just timidity on behalf of TV stations who don't want to get it wrong?"
More like they simply can't predict with accuracy. There are seats being won and lost which shouldn't be won or lost if those seats were won or lost, if you get my point. There's no pattern for systems to pick up on.
djw2009
May 7th, 2010 4:08am Report this commentYes, David DP, but they should be constantly calculating the average swings and letting us now how it looks, and then revising again every half hour.
Stewart
May 7th, 2010 4:17am Report this commentNo one is mentioning the fact that if the constituency boundaries were fairly drawn and it didn't take thousands of more votes to elect a Conservative MP than a Labour one the Conservatives would have a stonking majority. If by some miracle Cameron gets a majority his first task must be to sort out this democratic deficit and ensure that he isn't a one term PM.
Verity
May 7th, 2010 4:26am Report this commentThe Tories, having chosen the bizarre David Cameron, who is not a Tory, but a well-connected, not particularly bright ex-Bullingdon thug who had a disabled kid that he could hawk around the media ... I guess they had to stick with him even when they sensed support gushing away ...
Cameron swerved at one gate after another.
The man in a EUSSRophile and doesn't have a democratic bone in his body. He is one who believes he was born into the Nomenklatura, and born to make rules for others. And fix up a tidy little niche for himself.
The requirement to be elected is such a bore ...
djw2009
May 7th, 2010 4:32am Report this commentHaving followed a strategy of trying to push Tories out of the Conservative Party, based on the idea that you can dispense with your base and gain twice as many new supporters in the middle ground, CAmeron is left without a clear win, and still needing a coalition to cobble a government. Why should this man remain as leader of the Conservative Party? His strategy has failed - and in a year when there are the gravest question marks over the financial and economic strategy of Labour, he should be romping home. Cameron is a failure. A coalition government including the Tories would still be a coalition of losers.
Tiberius
May 7th, 2010 4:39am Report this commentJackie Smith gone.
djw2009: The Tories would not have gained as many seats without Cameron's leadership.
DavidDP
May 7th, 2010 4:40am Report this commentCannock Chase! Mad.
Don't talk rot. If Cameron has pushed out Tories from the party, then people like MacMillan were never Tories. He's moved the party back to its Disraelian roots, away from the Whiggism of the Thatcherites, which while succesful in the 80s proved less succesful by 2005, with the party unable to win against a very unpopular Labour party and Blair.
Verity
May 7th, 2010 4:42am Report this commentFive years of the most intentionally destructive and vicious government in our country's history, and Dave couldn't win any more than a hung Parliament.
Five long years, and he couldn't even swing a narrow victory.
Never mind the landslide, the tsunami of Conservative votes, that we had a right to expect.
Sack him. He cannot be rewarded for this huge failure by continuing as Leader of the Conservatives. Invite John Redwood to serve.
djw2009
May 7th, 2010 4:48am Report this comment>>The Tories would not have gained as many seats without Cameron's leadership.
Tiberius, that is simply rubbish. First of all, forget seats. The FPTP system accentuates the number of seat gains. Focus on the share of the vote. Over 33% last time. How much will it be now? We don't know as the BBC won't publish a running tally of the share of the vote, but if it is 36% or 37% it will still be only a 3-4 percentage point gain - in view of Labour's problems and the recession, that is a defeat for Cameron. You are replicating Alex Massie's intellectually challenged approach of focusing on the seat count, and not the % of the vote. A 3 percentage point increase is in fact hardly any change at all in terms of support in the country - it may or may not give them a majority, but we are clearly moving into a party system where no party really gets a mandate to rule. Cameron - 37% of the vote according to the BBC just now while I write this. 37% is not a landslide - even if there were a seat landslide, it not a landslide in votes. 37% - and Cameron is pretending the vote gives him a mandate to govern? Cameron - suck it up! You only got just over one-third of the vote.
djw2009
May 7th, 2010 4:50am Report this commentFor the purposes of clarity: even if Cameron got 350 seats, 37% of the vote is not a mandate, and not much of an advance on the 2005 election results. Tell me why he is not at 44% of the vote.
DavidDP
May 7th, 2010 4:54am Report this comment"Tiberius, that is simply rubbish."
Given the complete lack of movement byt he Tories in 2001, and the tiny movement in 2006 both on the back of a hard right campaing, it's clearly not rubbish.
Had the Tories not remained suicidal in 2001 and 2005, Cameron would not have started a landslide down (and a 70 seat majority, which Labour won in 2005 is a landslide).
He's getting huge swings in large numbers of seats. A major handicap is Scotland, where the party is still clearly toxic after Thatcher.
DavidDP
May 7th, 2010 4:57am Report this commentWhy he's not at 44% of the vote can be easily seen from polling. It's quite clear that in response to questions about the aprty, there was still some uneasiness as to whether it had changed or whether "same old Tories held true". Despite Cmaeron's efforts, he wasn't helped by the old guard like the WIntertons.
"ITV saying that Shaun Bailey hasn't won which is a big blow to the Tories. Bailey has had several Cameron vists and been promoted by the party at every opportunity"
I wonder if Johan Hari's disgraceful pack of lies had an effect.
Tiberius
May 7th, 2010 5:07am Report this commentDavidDP has answered your question, djw 2009, but I do realize that some will never accept this analysis.
TGF UKIP
May 7th, 2010 5:17am Report this commentTiberius, really about time you faced up to your boy's failure. An appalling performance as an opposition leader followed by an abysmal campaign ends up with Tories being unable to win target seats like Bolton West and Edgbaston. Failure no matter how you try to spin it.
Richard Stevenson
May 7th, 2010 5:20am Report this commentAll three parties seemed quite keen on the idea that we need change, but now apparently as far a Labour are concerned, that change doesn't extend to the constitution that gives Gordon Brown and weasly opportunity to cling to power.
djw2009
May 7th, 2010 5:22am Report this commentThere was no hard right campaign in 2005 - I don't recall the Conservatives promising to pull out of Europe or reduce state to 20% of GDP. So, DavidDP, you're information is faulty.
A party exists to achieve its philosophical objectives. The Green Party exists to promote environmentalism. It would make no sense for it to drop that cause in order to get more votes. Conservatism has its core objectives - all of which have been dropped by Dave in order to try to get centre-ground votes. Now, in 2005, Labour seemed successful, and maybe the electorate were unwilling to listen to a Tory argument. This time around, Labour has been exposed - and yet, Cameron has removed all distinctions between him and Labour (and Cameron was responsible for the boom and bust cycle, as he supported Labour's spending plans) - and so we don't know how the electorate would have reacted had they had a genuine choice this time.
I welcome Shaun Bailey's defeat. The Conservative Party should not pick candidates in order to meet PC criteria.
djw2009
May 7th, 2010 5:29am Report this commentHmm. If Labour get more than 200 seats, it will be a moral victory of sorts in a recession. I am no longer sure the Tories will get 300. They're making heavy weather of it.
Tiberius
May 7th, 2010 5:29am Report this commentTGF: it is not spin to say that since 2005 Cameron has brought the party further than anyone else could have done, and that the task was huge for whoever had led the party.
Ron Todd
May 7th, 2010 5:31am Report this commentMy impression early in the morning is that Labour have the smallest swings against them in the areas with most postal voting fraud.
And the BBC is still pushing PR having people on to talk in favour of PR but none against.
DavidDP
May 7th, 2010 5:32am Report this comment2005 was a dog whistle campaign. Don't try to rewrite history.
"I welcome Shaun Bailey's defeat. The Conservative Party should not pick candidates in order to meet PC criteria.2
Bailey was picked because he was an excellent candidate, and had a proven record in working and improving the lives of those in need, without leaning on the state. If you think that's a "PC" pick, one can only draw the obvious conclusions as to why you think so.
djw2009
May 7th, 2010 5:36am Report this commentThe BBC have done their first projection. 306 conservatives, 262 Labour and 55 Lib Dems and 27 others.
Well that's not enough, even with the DUP. But it does mean Labour and the Lib Dems together only have 317 - also not enough!
You could look at really fancy permutations: Labour+Lib Dems + SNP + Plaid Cymru + SDLP, but this is getting ridiculous.
The only combination that really works is: Tories+Lib Dems. Which makes Nick Clegg the kingmaker.
ollie
May 7th, 2010 5:39am Report this commentdjw - no - the Tories could govern as a minority.
DavidDP
May 7th, 2010 5:45am Report this commentGain Winchester, seat 122 on the target list. The Tories are missing easier targets but getting harder ones. It's very odd.
djw2009
May 7th, 2010 5:48am Report this commentThe Tories' nadir was 1997 - 165 seats.
If this is Labour's nadir (200+ seats), they are clearly, even at their worst, doing better than the Tories at their worst.
DavidDP
May 7th, 2010 5:48am Report this commentAnd now Sherwood, seat 152. Head scratching.
DavidDP
May 7th, 2010 5:50am Report this commentExcept of course they have a lower share of the vote than even the Tories' nadir. The higher seats are accounted for by over-performance in Scotland (thanks to the toxic Tory image that remains) and the boundary advantage.
DavidDP
May 7th, 2010 5:54am Report this commentGaining over 100 seats, which appears at least likely, is quite an achievement.
TGF UKIP
May 7th, 2010 5:54am Report this commentGiven what an appalling leader Cameron has been, almost any other leader would have done better against Britain's worst ever and most discredited government and its most evil and despised PM. Your continuing pretence that "it could only have been Dave" is long past its sale date.
Tiberius
May 7th, 2010 6:02am Report this commentIt is an achievement, but the runes dictate a potentially messy outcome.
We will be starting from a point of Brown trying to cling on to power no matter what the rights and wrongs.
Hinaus.
djw2009
May 7th, 2010 6:02am Report this commentWelsh vote complete
26 Labour
8 Tories
3 Lib Dems
3 Plaid Cymru
DavidDP
May 7th, 2010 6:03am Report this comment"Nick Griffin achieves 6,620 votes in Barking - easily beaten into third place by the winner, Labour's Margaret Hodge, and the Tories"
Well thank goodness-that's something we can all be pleased about.
djw2009
May 7th, 2010 6:10am Report this commentThere are 2 seats left to declare in Scotland, but so far the Conservatives ONLY HAVE ONE SEAT IN SCOTLAND. Er... where is the mandate to rule the UK?
Right On
May 7th, 2010 6:11am Report this commentInteresting note on the English majority - could a deal with Scottish & Welsh nationalist + DUP to abstain on Enlgish domestic policy perhaps?
DavidDP
May 7th, 2010 6:12am Report this commentAsk Thatcher.
djw2009
May 7th, 2010 6:18am Report this commentOne thing there has been no news on: UKIP have got 3.2% of the vote so far. How many seats have they deprived the Conservatives of?
DavidDP
May 7th, 2010 6:21am Report this commentGross, about 2 or 3 I think. Net, probably none, given a move to attract UKIP-ers would likely see a leak of voters on the other side.
djw2009
May 7th, 2010 6:25am Report this commentOwing to the redrawing of constituency boundaries, although the Tories won 198 last time, their "notional" 2005 result, taking account of boundary changes, is 210. So it looks unlikely he will get 100 extra seats (to 310). Note: 100 seats is a good gain IN TERMS OF SEATS (persons of low IQ who don't understand the difference between seats and votes and how the FPTP system works, please refrain from commenting). In terms of votes, Cameron is HARDLY MOVING THE DIAL - up just 3.8 percentage points. Although when you are near the 37% boundary, a small rise in votes translates into a lot of seats due to FPTP.
djw2009
May 7th, 2010 6:30am Report this commentCameron crashes and burns!
DavidDP
May 7th, 2010 6:32am Report this commentCameron should play it cool and allow Brown to machinate all he likes, even if it means remaining in opposition. The electorate are unlikely to take kindly to seeing Broqn remain in No10, and the fool will be deaf and blind to that. Should see firmer moves behind Cameron and the Tories.
Derek
May 7th, 2010 6:44am Report this commentdjw2009
"where is the mandate to rule the UK?":
Answer: In the principle underlying the maxim of Emiliano Zapata that "land should belong to those that work it".
The electoral map shows that England wants a conservative government. The Labour government, supported by the Liberals, set up a vast rotten borough mainly in Scotland paid for by English taxpayers.
Derek
May 7th, 2010 6:51am Report this commentDavidDP
May 7th, 2010 6:32am
Agreed; and let Labour take the hit for the coming economic crisis à la grecque, while manoeuvring to avoid proportional representation as an element of any electoral reform.
Gawain
May 7th, 2010 6:59am Report this commentWhat a let down. All those debates, all that media bruhaha and ....... phut *%? Gordon Brown remains in Downing Street and we don't have a government. Still, if the LabLibs railroad PR through I suppose we had better get used to it.
Paul Hawkins
May 7th, 2010 7:07am Report this commentdjw2009 . it's been a long night I am sure but that does not excuse the ineptitude of your comments.
This election has laid bare the extent of Labour gerrymandering over the past 13 years. As of now the Tories have 50 more seats than Labour yet we face a hung Parliament? Enough said.
You can waffle on about votes and how FPTP works but the average man in the street will rightly ask how a match can be lost when one team score 50 more than the other.
That's the key question.
Chris
May 7th, 2010 7:20am Report this commentUKIP came absolutely nowhere. They lost. Would they please stop bothering the rest of us now?
stephen
May 7th, 2010 7:34am Report this comment£ down 3 cents!
Here's hoping the men in white coats can get into Downing St and take him out!
Actually this is a very unfunny situation and financial markets are very unforgiving. One bond trader on CNBC just virtually said UK Gilts are fu*ked. I hope those of you who voted Lib Dem are prepared for your mortgage interest payments going up. You were warned!
fred
May 7th, 2010 8:08am Report this commentErm... gerrymandering has nothing to do with "50 more seats yet a hung parliament", that's due to, you know, other parties.
Gerrymandering is responsible for the ~7% popular vote lead over Lab not translating into far more seats than it will.
Richard of York
May 7th, 2010 9:15am Report this commentProject Shameron is dead.
Happy Days!
What makes tories think they have a mandate?
Scotland is a dessert for tories and Wales have not taste for the blue rinse brigade.
How can they clain to have a right to govern the UK ....its so funny I am sooo happy!
Happy Days!
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