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Wednesday, 12th May 2010

Reasons for real hope amid the misplaced optimism

Fraser Nelson 6:41pm

Today's civil partnership between two men who look uncannily like each other will, I suspect, be remembered as a festival of misplaced optimism. Cameron overdid it a little, making out that this was his ideal outcome. It seems rude to point it out, but there were two podiums in that rose garden because he flunked the election (see Tim Montgomerie's superlative report for details). The cost of his failure to win is having to do a deal with Nick Clegg. The country didn't vote for a new politics: the Lib Dems did worse than last time, so polls show most voters would have preferred Cameron to have formed a minority government. This is an alliance designed to stop Cameron fighting an election again soon, and repeating last week's jarring experience. So let's not pretend this is the liberation of Paris, dawn of a new era, etc.

That said, today can be said to be a victory for Conservatism because the two best policies - welfare reform and education - will be implemented by the most competent people. Grayling's return to the DWP brief is great news: he is not a vain man, he is - like IDS - genuinely enthused about the transformative power of welfare reform. It was Grayling who seized on the David Freud agenda to start the welfare reform bidding wars which James Purnell responded to so well. To have all three in the DWP is as close as you get to a dream team in politics.

I met IDS earlier, and we had a brief chat about what lies ahead. And I offer CoffeeHousers this analogy. When George Robertson was sent from Scotland to the MoD in 1997 it was a shock to him: he had not the first clue about defence. IDS has spent 18 months studying not only welfare, but who's who in the DWP: the civil servants, the various divisions, who has been performing, who has not. Also he has no career ambition: he will give his all to making radical welfare reform a reality. This nettle is never grasped because the poor are so easily ignored: Labour left 1.2m people on benefits every day of the last decade and got away with it. No one who has met IDS can doubt his motivation.

The British system means MPs with no interest or expertise run departments - usually badly. With Gove and IDS you have two men who have spent years preparing for a task they actually want to do. Also, both tasks are progressive insofar as they only aim to help the least advantaged. Welfare reform is expensive: it's about saving lives, not money. Gove's free school policy aims to give the poor the same choice in education that the rich have. They are great examples of progressive ends, but conservative means. Both should yield hard results within a year.

On the whole, I fear that this coalition is doomed and this 'new politics' a squalid triumph of expediency over principle. It could be no other: this is what happens when parties do deals with each other after the people have spoken. The Tories warned about this in their election broadcast: a hung parliament would mean "under the table deals being the order of the day," and an "end to transparency" with "policies bickered over by secret committees". So it was to prove. The upside is that the Tories will find it easier to project the liberal part of their agenda. But there are other ways to break out of party stereotypes: and Cameron can do so by showing Gove and IDS can do more to help the poor than 13 years of Labour did. It is an agenda the Blairites would have nailed if they had been given the chance.

So, I would have preferred an outright Tory government, but like what I see today. The Lib Dems may be used as backing vocals, but Cameron is singing the blues.

Filed under: Conservatives (2312 more articles) , David Cameron (1913 more articles) , Government (233 more articles) , Iain Duncan Smith (148 more articles) , Liberal Democrats (1155 more articles) , Michael Gove (211 more articles) , Schools (96 more articles) , UK politics (5407 more articles) , Welfare (256 more articles)

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Comments Post comment

Kevyn Bodman

May 12th, 2010 7:08pm Report this comment

'Both should see hard results within a year.'

No.

I am delighted that Gove has got Education, and pleased that IDS will work on welfare reform.

But we'll only see the the initial implementaion of these policies within a year.
It'll take a few years before the policies are seen to be a success.
I am sure that they will be successful, but we won't see it in a year and it'll need continued presentation work when the results come in.
After a bit it'll take off,but not straight away.

paulg

May 12th, 2010 7:09pm Report this comment

Thats the ticket frazer, the conservatives were not dealt an ideal hand but cameron has played it to conservative advantage.

All government is incremental and it takes time, but we will win through in the end.

DavidDP

May 12th, 2010 7:11pm Report this comment

Fraser,

I know you keep harping on about minority government, but that wasn't in Cameron's power to get. It would have relied on Labour failing to reach a coalition with the LibDems, and the only way that would happen did - the LibDems having an alternative offer. Had Cameron held back, the outcome would have been the Losers' coalition, not your heralded minority government that would have been much weaker (as you point out, the major Tory policies are being implemented, and will now do so with the vast majority of one potential opposition party locked into the payroll vote, which makes for easier passage).

As for your description of the deal as "squalid" once again, this appears to be your temper getting the better of you again, and makes a vice out of pragmatism and co-operation; no good government, particularly a Tory one (see Lord Hailsham-or does he not count since he was pre-Thatcher?), makes a vice out of pragmatism.

Fatbloke on tour

May 12th, 2010 7:12pm Report this comment

Trevor aka "Fraser" ...

You are kidding aren't you?
If not then you have less understanding of these subjects that you do of economics.

By the way how is your retraction of your mistakes on GDP peak to trough data and Maggies' employment records coming along?

IDS = Mentalist with an agenda, his wilful mis-understanding of the brain / abuse data tells all you need to know.

He will be the 80/20 rule in reverse.
20% will proper as they would under Labour's proposals, however they will be held up as proof positive to the new regime.

The other 80%, how long before he starts tio blame the poor for their own misfortune. Standard Tory tactic which will be taken up enthusiastically by the new establishment dog boilers as an excuse to cut the dole.

These two ideas will fail to do what you suggest.

Gove = The education Smurph has an agenda for these "Free" schools, it is not about advancement in poor areas it is about the parcelling up a state resource for the benefit of the middle class who can't or won't pay for a private education.

It is the Inclosure Act meets education.

Jorge Huésped de la Boda

May 12th, 2010 7:13pm Report this comment

Fraser Nelson,

Being optimistic about the new arrangement it is too early for me to tell whether my hopes are misplaced. The present geniality in the relationship is, however, a hopeful sign indicating that policies will be implemented to tackle the worst financial crisis since the 1930s.

Don't you think you should play a sweeter serenade at the window of the couple to encourage the conception of a beautiful economic infant? At least until the honeymoon is actually over.

Polly Gamma

May 12th, 2010 7:14pm Report this comment

Softly softly catchee monkey.

Rambler

May 12th, 2010 7:16pm Report this comment

Fraser, I'm at least encouraged that you have put your own name to the byline of this one. And you have good things to say about Gove, Grayling and IDS - all true and I agree. Yet you still insist on treating our new Liberal Democrat colleagues with contempt. Both parties have conceded ground to make this coalition happen. If it is to collapse, it won't be for lack of effort by the party leadership, or policy formulation (on which the Conservative have emerged well) - it will collapse because of the egos of disgruntled party members and self-indulgent journalists who, for reasons unclear to me, are against an exciting era of consensual politics in the national interest.

The coalition is an apt response to the public's disillusionment with the political system and solid foundation for tackling the grave economic problems this country faces. Give it a chance.

TGF UKIP

May 12th, 2010 7:16pm Report this comment

First of all, Fraser, while endorsing what you say about Tim Montgomerie's excellent dissection, I note that you appear to be copping out of doing any analysis of your own on what and who landed the Tories in this mess. Clearly fealty to your beloved Cam comes first, alongside your reluctance to upset CCHQ. Perhaps though, the Alastair Campbell job is still vacant?

What you write also appears to me somewhat disingenuous on two counts. First of all, from what I have heard, the appointment of IDS was not some inspired appointment by your beloved Cam, it was forced on him by the Tory Parliamentary Right as part of the price of their acceptance of this farrago.

Similarly, Grayling to the same Department rather than to a Cabinet post was part of his punishment for upsetting the gays on the family-run B&B issue. Extreme political correctness has not departed from government with Harridan.

chris as usual

May 12th, 2010 7:17pm Report this comment

An alternative argument would be that this is a better bet than actually governing with a majority, never mind a minority. The logic is that there is going to be trouble and hatred as a result of the cutbacks, and we all know that both parties in opposition would be using every tactic to discredit whatever the government did.

Oldies like me are fed up with politicians, and some of us support what is being tried.

Those of you who like first-past-the-post whatever the consequences, need to remember that this system has served up 13 years of disaster. To argue that this is in any way the fault of the opposition parties is rubbish, All you can say that 'better' opposition would have got rid of Liebore earlier.

What do Ian DC, Willaim Hague and Michael Howard think?

The whole thing will depend on actual results of policies; not obscure arguments about so called principles.

SUSAN HILL

May 12th, 2010 7:23pm Report this comment

Sound thinking Fraser. Though 'the poor' these days include many on pensions - both in risibly low state pensions and private ones that went pear-shaped. So I would hope that IDS addresses this, not just families, or he will miss half the point. I know many people in their 80s living in fear of the modern equivalent of the workhouse- i.e a home they cannot afford to heat through a winter like the last one.

TrevorsDen

May 12th, 2010 7:24pm Report this comment

Cameron gained - what - about 100 seats? Labour lost - what - about 100 seats?

Flunked? When did the tories last win so many seats? When did labour last lose so many seats.

What was the swing Thatcher achieved in 79? What was the swing Cameron achieved this time?

How many times have we seen a govt with a majority lose it to another party with a working majority? Well - answer, how many times??

Why do not you talk sense instead of total bollocks?

Swiss Bob

May 12th, 2010 7:26pm Report this comment

Fraser, you're such a miserable git.

What are the alternatives? Not many that I can see so make the best of what you've got.

The Tories have five years to show the general public they can govern well, as do the LibDems.

Look on the bright side, Labour may be completely wiped out at the next election.

Especially against the Munsters (anyone see Miliband's bid for the Labour Leadership?)

Hysteria

May 12th, 2010 7:53pm Report this comment

Fraser

"On the whole, I think this coalition is doomed ........... but like what I see today"

not the clearest summary of a position....

Yosemite Sam

May 12th, 2010 7:58pm Report this comment

It is never difficult to tell the difference between a Scotsman with a grievance and a ray of sunshine.
P G Wodehouse (1935)

J H Holloway

May 12th, 2010 8:05pm Report this comment

fatbloke

IDS = Mentalist with an agenda, his wilful mis-understanding of the brain / abuse data tells all you need to know.

Wrong again matey.

Two weeks ago I was in Asia watching English language Japanese news. It feature a report from a Japanese/US team of scientists who had found that the visual cortex of children who had witnessed domestic violence was up to 25 percent smaller than normal.

'Japanese and US researchers worked together to study the effects of domestic violence on brain development. Subjects of the study included 48 Americans, aged 18 to 25. Of the 48, fifteen had witnessed domestic violence when they were growing up, including their fathers beating their mothers. The remaining subjects did not grow up in violent homes.

Of the fifteen who witnessed domestic violence, their visual cortex was 25% smaller. The visual cortex processes information from the eyes. When underdeveloped, a person will have below normal intelligence and academic ability.'

And if you can't properly process visual information, you won't be able to function in society, leading to alienation and violence.

Funny that this news item was barely covered in the world's press...

J H Holloway

May 12th, 2010 8:08pm Report this comment

TGF

'the appointment of IDS was not some inspired appointment by your beloved Cam, it was forced on him by the Tory Parliamentary Right as part of the price of their acceptance of this farrago'

Well, you were warned endlessly, mate. You and your chums managed to lose the Tories 21 marginal seats because of your 'principled' stand on the European project.

Now you've got the most pro-European senior politician in the UK as deputy PM.

A period of silence on your part, please. When you've done that, come back and tell us why voting UKIP in a general election was a good idea....

oldtimer

May 12th, 2010 8:14pm Report this comment

Let us hope that hope triumphs over expectations.

2trueblue

May 12th, 2010 8:16pm Report this comment

To inherit the total mess that |Liebore have left behind the greatest thing might be that there is the another party in bed with you and there will be no doubt that the Liebore mess can be exposed. Cameron had no other choice, I would rather them on our side than sitting waiting to stab us in the back. There is no happy ending around the corner, thanks to Liebore. If you think that Cameron had lots of options then please tell me about them. This mess is so deep into all areas of our lives and there is no quick fix. If Cameron can get that through to people then he is half way there.

The mistake he made form my view point of view was promising a referendum that was not deliverable. Better to have offered the referendum on the basis that Liebore and Brown would actually fullfil their promise of a referendum. Once Liebore and Brown had done the deed then he could have made a great and valid point. We would now be looking at 16 more seats. Go figure.
Cameron has now done the very best and we need to get on and live in hope. At least some of our freedoms might get reinstated.
I am truely disappointed at the negative ramble considering that the Tories have actually managed to get the reins.

stephen

May 12th, 2010 8:22pm Report this comment

I would rather have this than either a Lib Lab Govt or a Labour which might just have been if Labour had sacked Brown six months ago.

We are where we are and could be IMHO be in much deeper sh*t

Ed T

May 12th, 2010 8:25pm Report this comment

Fraser, you are missing the mark a lot recently with your pessimistic analyses.

For Cameron to gain a majority would have been immensely tough, for the following reasons and many more:

1) The expenses scandal

2) The financial crisis, which left him with little more to offer than blood, sweat and tears

3) The weak state of the Party in large parts of the UK, due to three heavy GE defeats

4) The persistent unpopularity of the Party amoung large demographic groups.

Be happy that we have ended up with a near-optimal outcome. Any Conservative who really wants the Party to be governing as a majority through 5 years of 20% public spending cuts is a fool.

THX1138

May 12th, 2010 8:33pm Report this comment

Sorry, but life is far too short to read 7000 words by that Christian fundamentalist nutter Tim Montgomerie.

I like what I see so far and I really hope it all works out for the new Government, early days I know but it appears that LibDems are putting an effective break on the worst Tory excesses.

I have no idea if IDS was forced on Dave or not as TGF suggests (but I bet he's right) I do hope however that he does a better job at the DWP than he did as Tory leader (looking back, WTF were they thinking)..But he'd better make sure that his Christian zealot pal, Philippa "pray away the gay" Stroud and her nuts husband are cast into oblivion.

Fraser was dead set against a coalition from the outset and is hardly likely to change his tune immediately, but somehow I doubt we'll be seeing any more Speccie leaders on the Tories dumping the LibDems and forming a minority Government anytime soon.

George Robertson must have eventually got a good grip on his brief, after all he did end up running NATO.

davidk

May 12th, 2010 8:48pm Report this comment

"I like what I see today".

How on earth can anyone in any way, shape or form 'like' the current 'balance' of power underlined by the Downing Street garden pantomime today is beyond me. The tail is wagging the dog. There is no "victory" despite what the editorial of this journal tried to push on us today. Please can you quit this Pollyanna nonsense. It's a mongrel administration designed to obstruct reform.

wound up

May 12th, 2010 9:02pm Report this comment

Mr Nelson

You just don't get it do you?

Tiberius

May 12th, 2010 9:28pm Report this comment

Save your breath, TrevorsDen. Tim's oeuvre will be chip paper once the action starts anyway.

I hope to read these 7,000 words if time permits, but the fact that they have been written at all suggests that the arguments have been constructed to fit what I assume the conclusion to be.

This whole business starts from an assumption that the election was always, or became easily, winnable. All Cameron had to do was find the right lever amongst a row of decoys, and this should have been a piece of cake. But because he listened to a hysterical Steve Hilton shouting "this one, Dave; no try that one", he never pulled the right one.

I'm not going to waste my time listing again the obstructions Cameron faced (I think we all know them but some don't attach sufficient weight to their impact) but would refer to the analogous event of Adam Boulton's row, when even his correct assessment could not be heard over the din of the pathetic lies being spouted by Campbell on Monday.

I would say relief is a better term than optimism after the last 13 years, but yes hope is the best description of what we have going forward.

Hadrian

May 12th, 2010 9:33pm Report this comment

It's a bit disappointing to see all the sniping and murmurimg and negativity beginning already. I am as 'rightist' and unconstructed old fashioned Tory as one could get on moral issues; our Protestant Constitution; crime and corporal, capital punishment; antipathy to the E.U. centralist, messianic super state; and anti socialist to the core. However, though Cameron has been a shade too trendy at times and his permissiveness does need correction, I do think we owe it to the man to give him a chance to offer us at last a real alternative to the past thirteen long, weary years of socialist bungling and hypocrisy by Teflon Tone and then grim old Broon. Let's just rejoice their untrammelled efforts to wreck our liberties and national institutions and denigrate our history in the name of specious P.C. is now gloriously halted. Harriet Haridan, Mandelbum, and Bruin are all out of power. The generosity of spirit and firmness of purpose displayed by Cameron and Clegg is I think genuine and to be commended. They deserve their chance. Let's support them and be glad the socialist burden has been removed for now!!

Paddy

May 12th, 2010 9:54pm Report this comment

When Sky News say:

We are now going over to Downing St. to hear the PM - I don't have to cringe, switch the sound down and look away.

It will take some getting used to.

Half expected Brown and Mandelson to appear out of the back of No. 10 whilst Cameron was making his speech.

The journalists look alot happier too.

No worries of being "smeared" anymore.

Snowman

May 12th, 2010 9:56pm Report this comment

This ‘new politics’ stuff smells very much like Blair’s Third Way. The youngsters are overreaching themselves, I reckon, forgetting that old habits die hard. Just wait as the shite hits the unwashed, they’ll be all looking for escape exits.

Will J

May 12th, 2010 9:56pm Report this comment

Fraser - you are aware that the Lib Dems increased their vote share, aren't you? Labour lost 6%, the Tories picked up only 3.8% of that, the Lib Dems 1% (tragically, UKIP picked up almost 1% and the BNP picked up 1.2%)

Fatbloke on tour

May 12th, 2010 10:10pm Report this comment

JHH @ 8.05pm

Are you a member of "Time Team" / East Midlands branch?

If you are then your interest in all things in the past should be contrasted with your assertion that IDS can see into the future.

Consequently it is you who has got things wrong and you should be good enough to admit your mistakes.

IDS talked about work done at CTA / Baylor College in Texas regarding reduced brain size and severe sensory deprivation.

He has mentioned this at length over the past six months as if the issue was widespread when in fact the author of the study said that this mis-repesented his findings.

Reduced brain size = severe sensory deprivation at the far end of the abuse spectrum, could not be considered widespread as IDS was trying to put across.

Your article was about the size of the visual cortex and brain blood flows in children who had witnessed severe physical abuse / violence towards their mother by their father.

Harvard were the US arm of the research and the research was publicised in the second half of last month.

Issues that suggest you got it wrong:

Timing -- IDS has spoken about this over the last 6 months, the Grauniad article was dated 9th April 2010.

Subject Matter -- IDS was going on about brain size not the visual cortex.

Children involved -- Tory focus is and was one parent families, IDS was looking at but not fully understanding the effect of sensory deprivation in that context.

One parent families, specifically the ones who the Tories target do not involve an adult male.

Therefore very limited scope for the physical abuse of the mother talked about in the Harvard study.

Consequently you are wrong and IDS is still a rabid rightwing mentalist dog boiler.

For the record I had a lot of admiration for IDS when he took up these issues but his response to the CTTA research and the Grauniad article suggested that the early good work had been wasted and he had returned to type, Spawn of Tebbit / Middle class taxi driver.

Please note that IDS seemingly only lasted 6 years in the Army before being asked to leave. Given the numpties that run the Army that is some record.

Peelite

May 12th, 2010 10:32pm Report this comment

You missed out another very key point Fraser, one you pointed out earlier on twitter. The Lib Dems coming on board un-ringfences health. That would not have been possible under a minority government. The Tories have done a lot better out of this than was thought yesterday. The Lib Dems have got a fair share of the power as far as I can see and the only bad thing they seem to have brought with them is capital gains (something which is probably necessary anyway, I'm convinced the debt is worse than we thought) and they've brought a lot of good.

In summary, cheer up pet. We've got a long fight ahead of us and is no gonnae get any easier if ya keep up yer whinin.

Senor Frizby

May 12th, 2010 10:35pm Report this comment

J H Holloway

You're absolutely right!

TGF UKIP

May 12th, 2010 10:41pm Report this comment

JH Holloway, instead of bleating about UKIP, go to their website and look at their policies. You will see that, not just on Europe, they are a country mile from those of the Cameron Tories.

Voting for an ultra PC, green, entirely London orientated bunch of social democrats wearing blue rosettes was more than I or many others could stomach.

Direct your blame to where it rightly belongs.

Short the UK

May 12th, 2010 10:47pm Report this comment

Good post from another blog by Tournesol:

What an excellent speech on the steps of No 10 - Real one nation stuff

Brought a tear to the eye of Mrs T who is a dyed in the wool anti-Tory - "He comes across as a really decent man and very sincere. And I really like what he said. Its just what we need. What a change from Mrs Thatcher"

Given the really tough decisions that are going to be needed and the very sharp/deep cuts, we need general support and that in turn needs

a) a general sense that the man running the govt is honest and decent - and its a long time since most people felt that way

b) the legitimacy that will be provided by the LibDems fingerprints on every measure. "See it's not just the nasty Tories saying we need to stop spending this, its also that nice Mr Clegg and Saint Vince Cable too"

And the way the Tories have behaved in negotiating this coalition reflects enormous credit on them - they have been reasonable, un-macho, un-aggressive, honest and grown-up. What a delightful change. Perhaps the grown-ups are back in charge.

And Cameron's generous comments about Brown - a very marked change from previous victors arriving at No 10 with nothing good to say about their opponents.

And Cameron's gallantry - opening the car door for his wife every time before getting in himself - major contrast with Brown who did not bother with such niceties but left Sarah to fend for herself - after parading his heart on his sleeve of course.

I think people will warm to Mr C.

Swiss Bob

May 12th, 2010 11:30pm Report this comment

Short the UK (you might need to revise that moniker),

Hear, hear.

Richard Clarkson

May 12th, 2010 11:32pm Report this comment

Actually there is a stroke of genius in how this coalition has been structured. The proposals for a 5 year parliament that can only be dissolved with a 55% vote should keep the Tories in power either in a coalition or a minority government. Nick Clegg won't be thanked at a General Election if he crosses the House and leaves the Government paralysed. David Cameron really needed a full 5 year term to enact the cuts and then recover popularity with their reform agenda (and they control the ministries with the power to implement them).

Also coalition benefits the images of both parties - it gives the Tories a heart, the Liberals credibility (and their own reformist colours) and both of them as founders of the New Politics.

I'm counting on the ruthless political judgement of both Leaders to understand this genius and keep the coalition on the road. The last 12 months will be interesting though.

Snowman

May 13th, 2010 12:43am Report this comment

Fraser, going it along wasn’t an option for reasons pointed out here above. However, allowing Labour and the confused party to form a coalition even without the nationalists on board was. Cameron should have said that ‘he didn’t get an overall majority to form a Government of his own, the electorate shortchanged him. As the leader of the largest party he then tried hard, very hard, to put together a coalition with Cleggy, but was badly let down (secret talks with Labour, unacceptable demands). Reluctantly, therefore, he must let the two smaller parties form a coalition that he will support on a case by case basis provided their governing serves the nation’s interest.

If that happened the Lab/Lib alliance would have to have been more than careful to keep the Tories happy, they couldn’t have fought another election soon. It would have also meant Cameron walking before or after the Autumn gathering of the faithful. The Tories would have benefited handsomely, however: an outraged unwashed still lumbered with the old crew, the blame for any austerity measures firmly in Labours laps, and the chance for the Tories to have a think and switch to being conservative again (under a new management).

You right to be sceptical about the ‘new politics’ (want happened to the ‘big society’ stuff?). It attempts to replicate Blair’s ‘third way’, yet the economic outlook ain’t anything to what it was when the tanned one pushed his novelty toy.

J H Holloway

May 13th, 2010 2:47am Report this comment

Very good point by ShortUK.

The Conservatives under Cameron looked very grown up, especially during the 18 hours when it looked like Mandy and Campbell might pull off a coup and change the voting system without a referendum.

This coalition might work very very well because both the Tories and Liberals will spend the next few years repeating the mantra that they are clearing up Labour's disaster.

The public did not pin the deficit on Brown because many thought it was directly connected to the bank bailout. I believe that's why Labour didn't have the economic disaster pinned on them at this election.

However, a few years of Law and Cable standing in front of the cameras telling the truth about Brown's destruction of our finances should mean that in May 2015 Labour will be hammered good and proper.

Truth is, the Tories couldn't have taken five solo years clearing up the toxic debts without taking the blame.

If nothing else, the coalition will silence the war cry of 'Tory cuts' and that might be far more important to the future of the Tory party than we could imagine.

Jaded63

May 13th, 2010 5:16am Report this comment

Well, I've been watching British politics since 1952, when, as a rather precocious 7 year old, I used to be first to grab the New Statesman when it landed on the doormat, and run back up the stairs to read it in bed. I first voted in November '64, and great was my thrill when Wilson (who I saw walk within inches of me during that election campaign, and it struck me how small he was - I'm 5ft 10, and I towered over him) got a narrow majority of 4 seats.

One could observe that Cameron must have longed for a similar majority, compared to the position he found himself in on the morning after the election. However, I must say I've never seen or felt anything like this particular post-election scenario. I'm convinced that Cameron adjusted so fast to it that regrets quickly went out the window. He has turned a negative into a positive, and we might find, enfin, that this election result has been the best possible outcome for both the Tories and the Lib Dems. We could have a new hegemony in place that will dominate British politics for decades to come. This coalition represents over 60% of British votes cast. If it melds together, it will be very difficult to dislodge from power in the future.

Clegg, too, has been very positive. I rubbished him as losing all credibility after his overtures to Labour, but it turns out he may have played a very successful and winning hand.

The overwhelming impression I have is one of something utterly new and fresh in British politics. The wartime coalition of all three parties was born of a different type of necessity, and wouldn't have had this born-anew freshness, or, indeed, dynamism, though it worked very well. It seems to me that this coalition may also work very well, and I wish both parties and party leaders success. They deserve it for their enthusiasm and open attitude. Old party shibboleths have been cast aside. Powerful elements of reason, principle, dynamism and togetherness, along with the wysteria, were on display in the back garden of No.10 yesterday.

I don't think the hacks, or the electorate, have really got it yet. This is the 'new politics' born, and a healthy, gurgling, cheerful infant it appears to be. Far from being ' a mongrel cross between a bulldog and a chihuaha', as the jealous buffoon Johnson puts it, this infant looks distinctly human.

Ian Walker

May 13th, 2010 6:28am Report this comment

Of all the people who have failed to see the new dawn, I'm surprised that you're one of them Fraser.

A whole bunch of outdated people with outdated ideas are being swept away. Personally, I can't wait.

oldtimer

May 13th, 2010 8:37am Report this comment

Overnight we now learn that, on the evening of Brown`s resignation, Clegg desperately phoned him more than once to put it off as he had not completed his negotiations with Cameron. In the end, Brown in effect said "Sod it! I`m off to see the Queen".

My reading, on the morning after the No 10 garden love in, is that Clegg and the LibDems are, more clearly then ever before, the rent boys of British politics. Moreover they have sought to put this arrangement on the statute book with a fixed five year term or a 55% majority before Parliament can be dissolved.

The expenses scandal in the last Parliament was bad enough. This attempt at a stitch up to secure access to the red boxes and ministerial cars is even worse. We already have national debt worthy of a banana republic. It looks as though our constitutional arrangement are going the same way if this attempt to institutionalise this gross act of political sodomy succeeds.

Mike Thomas

May 13th, 2010 8:58am Report this comment

Short the UK, nailed it, absolutely nailed it. I noticed the getting the car door - it's the little things that count. That's the moment I thought; this guy has it.

My take on it is look outside the political goldfish bowl for a few minutes.

People are afraid, Labour achieved one thing it has made them suspicious and negative that none of our problems can be fixed without a whacking great big State. This country isn't just on life support financially, it's society is hooked up in thousands of different ways to the gigantic State machine.

From 1997 to now, the public sector has ballooned from 40% to 52% GDP.

Cameron was never going to completely win over the people that really believe that the State should be smaller. The State also indirectly supports millions of people in the private sector too.

What Cameron did achieve was a massive swing of Labour seats not seen since 1931 and Labour's share of the vote was the lowest since 1983.

That is one hell of a reversal considering the starting position of 2005.

If you want to blame anyone, blame the 2001 and 2005 Tory election campaigns, they made little to no inroads into the Labour lead.

So Cameron had the State machine to fight, a very nasty Labour party and also the appalling skew in the constituency boundaries to fight as well.

To achieve what he has out of that, to get a new coalition build from the most improbable coalition partner, to negotiate a fair compromise that still ticks moderate Tory boxes.

Economic reform, tax reform, welfare reform, education reform and immigration reform...

How much more do you want?

Cameron displays glimmers of real political genius, as he gets into the role of PM, I really think he's going to go down as one of the greats.

Lastly, it is going to be a bloody and venal fight to really get this country fixed. By fusing these two parties together, they have stepped up the mark to govern us and we need good government right now. They are going to take a lot of heat for what they are going to do.

They command 58% of the popular vote and 55% of MPs. They have the authority in the eyes of the people to act and govern. They have the strongest mandate since Attlee.

Fraser, quit carping, and put yourselves in the shoes of the average voter. They've had years of fear, Big State and bully Brown and liar Blair. To see grown men understanding our problems, having good policies, putting aside personal and political differences and actually govern in our interst - what a refreshing change whatever the outcome.

Give them a chance and look to the positives for a change please.

egh

May 13th, 2010 9:06am Report this comment

Personally, I don't know what an outdated idea is - there's nothing new about treachery, greed, ignorance, lies, debt, deception, etc ... or about poncing and posing about in a rose garden to pretend it's pretty. They're all the oldest ideas in our bit of the universe.

Naomi Muse

May 13th, 2010 9:15am Report this comment

Fraser. I read your piece yesterday and thought it best not to comment.

There are reasons for real hope that this coalition can and will work.

These two parties have to make a good go of it or they will be out of office for years to come.

The deficit and debt are things they can both deal with as Labour is to blame for it being as bad as it is.

Political reform is close to both their hearts for it is needed if they are ever to get a working majority, and the ability to work in consensus will mean a denting of the habit of yah boo politics.

Are you, perhaps, mourning the potential loss of the existing system, in this new departure?

There may be a sense of this disenfranchising political journalists which informs your slightly Eeyore-like disgruntled comments.

Lindsay

May 13th, 2010 9:17am Report this comment

Ian Walker @6.28am

Ah yes--the new dawn, "failed to see the new dawn".

Just like the journey of a thousand miles etc.

When things can be "swept away". Magic.

You seem a foolish fellow--be careful of who and what might be swept away, Mr Walker.

Chuck Unsworth

May 13th, 2010 9:23am Report this comment

@ oldtimer

I understand that even rent-boys have their uses.

Snowman

May 13th, 2010 10:14am Report this comment

Ian Walker @ 6.28:

One could have said the same, word for word, about the tanned one’s victory in 1997, and many did, and a fat lot did it do in the end, just look at us.

Liz Brown

May 13th, 2010 10:49am Report this comment

We can't have it both ways - we are being told that we are crying out for a PR system of voting and now that we have a coalition Government which is what PR brings, we are being told that this will be a disaster. BUT, we should consider the positives. When the true facts behing Brown's debts and deficits are revealed, this cannot be brushed off as nasty Tory lies, when the necessary cuts in public spending are announced, this cannot be brushed off as the nasty Tories punishing the poor.
There was never going to be a Tory majority. It doesn't matter what the media is saying that the campaign was a poor one - the media constantly portrayed the Tories in a poor light and the mountain was far too big to climb.
We could have had a minority Tory Government, but then they wouldn't have carried the mandate to do what needs to be done. We could have had a Lib/Lab coalition and we would all have loved that, wouldn't we. What we do have is the best possible outcome in an imperfect world and we should be generous in our praise of Mr Cameron and Mr Clegg. To those who think otherwise, I say "Get over it"

Irene

May 13th, 2010 11:44am Report this comment

We were being told over and over again what a mountain Cameron had to climb - he was so close, but just look at the number of seats he won!
If he had won by a small majority he would have been hammered by labour/libdems at every turn, this way both parties take the hit when the cuts come.

I don't see what options he had other than the coalition with Clegg.

I personally think he has played a blinder given the circumstances.

The only thing I am really unhappy about is the name - it seems to be the Liberal Conservative Party, which I think is a step too far.

Nigel

May 13th, 2010 1:27pm Report this comment

"a squalid triumph of expediency over principle" ?

Fraser, you are a miserablist.

And in any event, it's national expediency versus your own personal principle.

No contest.

Stephen Gillespie

May 13th, 2010 3:58pm Report this comment

Fraser,

Much as I admire your writing and thinking, I find this piece depressingly tribal and trivial. What we ahve got may not be what we wanted but is the least bad, and more importantly, only feasible, option which allows DCam to become PM> As other posters ahve correctly pointed out, a Tory minority government was not within DC's power to contrive and was dependant upon the rainbow coalition talks failing. AS post-mortem Labour analysis has shown, those talks could easily have succeeded if they'd been handled by wiser Labour heads - Johnson, Milliband(s), Burnham. It is pure good fortune that those talks were mishandled, as we all know that the Liberals were emotionally much more inclined to do a deal with Labour. I am concerned that Vince Cable will be the rock that this ship founders on, but DC and Hague have been v clever in the way they ahve allocated jobs. Fingers crossed - they will need a fair measure of luck, and the best of luck is what we should all wish for them.

Sue Jennings

May 13th, 2010 5:12pm Report this comment

"Expediancy over principle" is one way of saying it, but I think pragmatism over ideology is more accurate. Personally I welcome this pragmatism and I am happy to see that, according to this article in ePolitix today http://www.epolitix.com/latestnews/article-detail/newsarticle/generation-jones-arrives-at-no-10/ it is a characteristic typical of the generation that Clegg, Cameron and over half the new Cabinet belong to: Generation Jones.

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