Tactical considerations over the timing of the AV referendum

djw2009

Dave'll personally campaign against AV? You're having a belly-laugh, aren't you? He personally campaigned to repatriate powers from the EU, to stop the rise in employees' National Insurance, to raise the inheritance tax threshold, to remove the ban on foxhunting, to freeze the TV licence, to force the BBC to publish the salaries of their high-earning employees - what is Dave's campaigning worth anyway? He has a track record of lacklustre campaigning for policies he doesn't believe in. He probably approves of AV, presuming he could always team up with the LibDems, whose policies he supports, and forget about his own backbenchers. Where's the downside for the resident of Wisteria Mansions?

Bryan Rose Jnr

David Cameron says one thing does another. The ultimate flip flopper. On Europe, Human Rights, Fox Hunting, Knife Crime etc the list is getting endless. Cam is a sham, convincing anyone and everyone who will listen that he is a Conservative is a joke. He is the heir to Balir after all. The same left-wing social agenda, that has ruined us and caused the Broken Society, he isn't stopping. Infact it will probably get worse with the Lib Loons on board. He says its all about the National Interest, more like his own. The National Interest would be total withdrawal from the E.U.

Cameron will destroy the Conservative Party unless he is stopped.

Hawkeye

From what I can see, AV won't make that much difference. In any case it will not make any difference to me as I have now disposed of my UK goods etc and I am off to my new life on the other side of the world.

Farewell and good luck. You're going to need it.

Fabian Solutions

Once this government falls and Labour win another 5 years in power, we can pass (either by ourselves or with the Lib Dems) electoral reforms to ensure a permanent progressive majority in this country - with or without a referendum.

As George Galloway said recently, our electoral system is inherently biased in favour of the Tories. Together, the centre-left parties (Labour and Lib Dems) always win at least 50-60% of the vote.

With the Alternative Vote system, the Tories would have been the 3rd biggest party in 1997.

You can’t stop progress!

Vulture

Fab Chance.

Brace yourself. This may come as something of a shock.

This Government is not going to fall. It will rule for a full five year term. Then get re-elected with a comfortable majority.

Nick Clegg will not get into bed with a couple of losers like the Millipede brothers.

The electoral boundaries are going to be revised to remove in-built bias towards Liebore.

The Liebore party is about to move into a far-left wilderness from which it will not return..

You will not see socialism in your lifetime.

Bickers

Fabian.

Sorry, the Labour party has an in built advantage in that it takes fewer votes on average to elect a Labour MP, & Labour are only kept in or close to power because of their Scottish clan of MP's

Matthew Blott

@ Fabian Solutions

I'm not sure what this "progressive" majority is if its members include the likes of Galloway. That point aside, I don't think this idea that the Tories would forever be locked out with PR holds. You'd find the parties would change - there are plenty of Blairites who would feel at home with the Cameroons and the Organge Book Lib Dems. A more nationalistic Conservative party might form incorporating UKip, the Tebbit element of the current Tories and perhaps some of the saner members of the BNP.

Gawain

AV only works for Labour if the constituencies stay as they are. Balls got very shirty on Newsnight when equalisation of constituencies was raised. There must be an even chance that a sizeable number of Labour MPs will delay this in Parliament or campaign against this. Labour is progressive in ne only.

Fabian Solutions

@Vulture

Wrong - the dream lives on. New Labour will regroup and win in November. The Con-Dem Nation will be hit by trade disputes, strikes, protests and riots. The Trades Unions will block any attempt to impose public sector cuts.

In November, the public will be crying out for an end to cameron's "austerity regime".

The Labour Movement lives on.

It waved above our infant might,
When all ahead seemed dark as night;
It witnessed many a deed and vow,
We must not change its colour now.

With heads uncovered swear we all
To bear it onward till we fall;
Come dungeons dark or gallows grim,
This song shall be our parting hymn.

Then raise the scarlet standard high.
Within its shade we'll live and die,
Though cowards flinch and traitors sneer,
We'll keep the red flag flying here.

Fox in a box

Fabian Solutions,

I'm sorry to disappoint you but this is Britain 2010, not Russia 1917.

Have you recently had a bump to the head?

TTFN

JONNY

And exactly why Fabian Solutions
should Nick Clegg ever want to get into bed with Ed Miliband? Would you?
Hang on. I'm getting there - oh yes 'a permament progressive majority'.
That's exciting. That's new. Oh Oh Oh what a Luvly Pipe Dream.

Ahmed Khan

The referendum MUST NOT take place, regardless of what has been agreed. While the Labour party is busy having an civil war the idea is for Cameron to make Clegg look like a incompetant novice who is obstructive to all reforms and then call an snap general election. With the labour out of action and the british public fed up of politics, the public will have no choice but to return a Conservative majority.

This will return the Liberals to their familar backbenches, secure 5 years for the Tories and leave Labour to rip each other at will.

JohnPage

Yes, yes. More interestingly, who will win the referendum? Cons voters mainly against, Libs for, traditional Labour against, metropolitan Labour (relatively few) for, minor parties should all be for.

Norman Tebbit Is Not My Real Name

Fabian Solutions, are you David Cameron?

Robert Eve

Just say no to AV.

Craig Strachan

Meanwhile the strategic question for the Tories is whether they want to be in a position to form a majority government ever again.

denis cooper

I've had more than enough of our present system of "elected dictatorship", and in the absence of any better alternative such as FPTP-SPTP I shall vote in favour of AV for the Commons in this referendum, and hope to be able to vote for proper PR for the Commons in a subsequent referendum.

Andrew Kitching

I really don't see what the Tories have got to worry about with AV. It is just as likely to deliver a majority as FPTP, but at least it is a more effective means of voting against someone you don't want.

I suggest you read Alex massie's latest blog with the link to Prof Curtice's essay on why FPTP is biased against The Tories.

Snowman

dennis cooper and Andrew Kitching: SPOT ON.

Mycroft

If the present Labour support for AV were a matter of principle, why did they not introduce it during all the years that they were in office? It looks as if they are worried about ever being able to get the majorities that they enjoyed in the past. They don't seem to have realized yet that the present coalition makes their notion of a 'permanent progressive majority' look to be more than a little facile.

Barbara

The Tories will never allow AV if they can get away with it, they are conning the Lib Dems, and in anycase AV is no better than what we have now, and once cast your vote will be offered to another which one might not approve of, for me that's not on, so if no other system is offered for me to choose, then the system we have now might as well stay put. All systems should be on the table for us to choose from and the one with the most votes wins, now that's democracy in motion; anything else is a half way measure to confuse and mislead. Why should they choose the system, why not ourselves? I've already heard one Tory MP say the same thing. We should all be telling our MP's this, pressuring them, we pay the taxes so we should call the tune, Cameron should know the will of the people always wins and his dictating won't change anything. Have we changed one regime for another, it looks like it. Cameron, and all his talk of fairness and freedom, is waffle in the wind, he backs out of everything. A poor choice the people have made, or is it the best of the rubbish?