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Friday, 28th May 2010

Encouraging early signs for the coalition

Peter Hoskin 9:02am

Was the delayed ballot in Thirsk and Malton a referendum on the coalition government?  If so, the result released in the early hours of this morning will greatly reassure David Cameron and Nick Clegg.  The Tory candidate Anne McIntosh won the seat with 52.9 percent of the vote (up from 51.9 percent in 2005), and the Lib Dems came second with 23.3 percent of the vote (up from 18.8 percent).  Labour were pushed way down into third place on 13.5 percent (down from 23.4 percent). So, over three-quarters of the vote for the two coalition parties.

I'd be hesitant to draw any firm conclusions from a one-off election, conducted under unusual circumstances.  But the rise in Lib Dem support is eyecatching, and makes you wonder whether they're still taking votes from Labour, or whether, as Mike Smithson suggests, they are benefitting more generally from the increased visibility of being in government.

Another thing to note is the rise in UKIP support.  They finished in fourth place with 6.6 percent of the vote, up from 3.1 percent in 2005.  This could have been a popular response to the death of the previous UKIP candidate.  But I wouldn't be surprised if the party enjoyed a minor influx of Conservative voters, disaffected by the coalition.  Something to keep an eye on, but not something, I'm sure, which will unduly concern the Tories – particularly in those cases where their candidate scores over 50 percent of the vote.

Filed under: Conservatives (2098 more articles) , David Cameron (1737 more articles) , Election 2010 (598 more articles) , Labour (2033 more articles) , Liberal Democrats (1058 more articles) , Nick Clegg (645 more articles) , UK politics (4966 more articles)

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Comments Post comment

Stephen Bowers

May 28th, 2010 9:38am Report this comment

Pity we could not have Fab Stupid's comments on this.
I wonder what his progressive socialism bullshit view would be.
An excellent result for Liebour.

Vulture

May 28th, 2010 9:46am Report this comment

So far we're in the Coalition's honeymoon period.

The measures they have enacted: scrapping ID cards, curbing CCTV etc are popular; and the cuts ( mere scratches so far) don't hurt.....yet.

The real test will come in the autumn/ winter when the weather turns nasty and so will the economic climate with real cuts inflicting real wounds. New Lib Dem deputy leader Simon Hughes and that old donkey Cable will be the first flakes to break from the coaliton and cuddle up to a new
MIlibanded LIebore.

Meanwhile the Tory Right, already sore abt CGT and Dave's ham-fisted bid to dictate to the 1922, will get ever more restive.

As Richard von Dorky used to say: those really will be happy days.

There will be trouble ahead. NOT may, will.

TrevorsDen

May 28th, 2010 9:59am Report this comment

Well if the result had been in any way the other way I am sure journalists everywhere WOULD have been using it as a referendum on the coalition.

I wonder if Labour have really twigged that the presence of LDs in govt is going to have a significant effect on their vote?

Some may go to UKIP and some LD may go to say Green. But if the coalition stays together then it hardly matters. And given that a key LD policy is tax cutting then there ought to be enough common grouin d with right wiong conservatives.

Of course it could all go horribly wrong, but isn't that the point which will keep it together?

Naomi Muse

May 28th, 2010 10:07am Report this comment

Without drawing too many conclusions from this solitary election, it would seem to indicate that the electorate of that constituency think that both parties in the coalition are more likely to do some good work for them.

The hard core Labour voters have dropped off for this one election.

The UKIP vote shows an underlying need to address the matter of Europe as the most bloated of the money guzzlers with the least benefit to the UK electorate.

Interesting.

Man in a Shed

May 28th, 2010 10:23am Report this comment

And the Liberal candidate did well also ... there will be a race on to become the Lib Dems UKIP between various parties - the Greens being most likely to benefit.

Simon Stephenson

May 28th, 2010 10:49am Report this comment

"Was the delayed ballot in Thirsk and Malton a referendum on the coalition government?"

I wonder which number this will be allocated in John Rentoul's series "Questions to which the answer is No"

strapworld

May 28th, 2010 10:58am Report this comment

The politics show last evening had a labour lovvie BBC reporter 'havin a larf' about the
conservative and liberal democrat candidates having a go at each other. Trying their best to create 'problems' within the coalition. I thought David Davis did rather well on that line of attack on that programme.

This result shows that the coalition has not harmed the conservative party at all and certainly helped the Liberal Democrats. Perhaps, with luck, when normality returns, should it ever!,to our political landscape that the Liberal Democrats will replace Labour as the second party!

That would certainly be one great benefit from the coalition.

Ahmed Khan

May 28th, 2010 11:03am Report this comment

The early signs are encouraging but it is still the honeymoon period. Cameron needs to keep a close eye on the polls and call for a 'snap' general Election so that the tories can return a clear majority.

But before calling a election Nick Clegg and his Liberals need to be 'sitched-up' and made to look incompetant in the eyes of the british publice.

Walsingham's Ghost

May 28th, 2010 11:15am Report this comment

Time for Cameron to start thinking about a deal with Nigel Farage...

WG

Nicholas

May 28th, 2010 11:18am Report this comment

What, no Speccie blog about the BBC QT and Campbell insurgency stitch up of No.10? I'd bet that QT audience was stuffed full of Labour party members and activists - even more so than usual - including the ever irritating "yoof wing".

Simon Morris

May 28th, 2010 11:34am Report this comment

Hopefully a hung Parliament will be the help we need to a change of attitude in politics that makes MP's more cooperative with each other.

Flash Gordon

May 28th, 2010 12:16pm Report this comment

With a 50.3% turnout, I work that out to be the 6th lowest turnout of all 650 seats.

Voter apathy is certain to be responsible for this. I can't imagine many Labour supporters being fired up enough to go out and vote in what was expected to be a safe Tory seat and when they already knew that the game was up.

It is likely that the only people that could be bothered to turn up and vote were the elderly Conservative supporters taking a break from bowls or knitting, or whatever else they do to pass the time.

JohnAnt

May 28th, 2010 2:51pm Report this comment

Labour never stood a chance in this constituency. How does the bitter local electoral fight between Con and LibDem get to be a triumph for the coalition?

Michael Booth

May 28th, 2010 3:41pm Report this comment

Thirsk and Malton is about as blue as you can get. The Labour candidate hasn't bothered very much (but nobody missed him at all). When Anne McIntosh was selected as Tory candidate I wrote to her asking what her views were on civil liberties and the Big Brother State. She wrote back that she couldn't share them with me because Parliamentary convention dictated that the sitting MP of one constituency (she was then MP for Vale of York) could not communicate with someone living in a neighbouring constituency (ie the one she had just been selected to represent). She said her views would be made known come the next election. Well, her pamphlet plopped onto the mat and was the most vacuous and patronising piece of crap I've ever seen. Afraid she lost my vote then and there.

Michael Booth

May 28th, 2010 3:44pm Report this comment

Oh, forgot to add that I also wrote to the Lib Dem candidate at the same time as I wrote to Anne McIntosh and he sent me a three page hand-written letter setting out his and his party's views. Very impressive.

TGF UKIP

May 28th, 2010 8:42pm Report this comment

If UKIP thwarted the Cameron Green Party in 21 seats this time, just think how many more they'll dish them in next time round.

Victor Southern

May 29th, 2010 9:19am Report this comment

UKIP had a massive failure in the General Election and should now sink slowly into oblivion.

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