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Monday, 7th June 2010

D-Day (plus one)

David Blackburn 9:03am

Cuts are here. The most important news of the weekend was the G20’s official backing for spending cuts. It was a significant volte face, and doubtless the sight of violent uprisings in Greece concentrated minds. Finally, George Osborne has been vindicated; but having convinced finance ministers, he must now carry the coalition and the country with him.

The first thing to do is ignore Nick Clegg and his claim that cuts will not be savage. Cuts will re-configure government in Britain, the current invasive Leviathan will be dismantled; but the process will be painful in the short-term, it must be. Osborne has been influenced by the Canadian model, which turned a deficit of 9 percent of GDP into a surplus between 1992 and 1997 with 20 percent cuts on average across government departments. Britain’s deficit is greater.

Today, David Cameron will deliver a speech outlining the ‘momentous decisions’ to come. His task is made harder by being in coalition with a party that represents a number of underprivileged constituencies, and by having pledged to ring-fence certain budgets at the expense of others. Protected NHS and international development spending will place an added onus on other departments – up to 25 percent according to some estimates. Realistically, cutting the deficit without reducing NHS spending (worth roughly 10.5 percent of GDP according to Reform) is not credible. The Lib Dems campaigned against ring-fencing; perhaps they have influenced government policy?

Filed under: Coalition (2088 more articles) , David Cameron (1912 more articles) , Debt crisis (83 more articles) , George Osborne (798 more articles) , Greece (97 more articles) , Liberal Democrats (1155 more articles) , Public finances (753 more articles) , Spending cuts (626 more articles) , Spending plans (81 more articles) , UK politics (5406 more articles)

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John Bracewell

June 7th, 2010 9:17am Report this comment

We keep hearing about the Canadian and Swedish models for reducing the deficit. Is there any detail about the sort of cuts they made? Anyone got a link to a summary of same?

Naomi Muse

June 7th, 2010 9:26am Report this comment

The best thing about this is that it signals that Gordon Brown is most unlikely to show his face in Westminster again. He has been debunked by the G20. Having claimed to have 'saved the world' and that all the world outside of the Tories 'agreed with' him. He was wrong and everyone now thinks so too.

Cuts need to be brave to withstand the wrath of the public sector who will cry 'They wouldn't dare!' to cuts of anything and everything that is unnecessary.

Strange, isn't it, how many of the 'Ten Easy Steps' listed in the Spectator Manifesto, are now being done?

Removal of the subsidies for onshore wind turbines as well as all other energy production, should make a difference and ensure that the cost of all energy production is properly calculated.

SUSAN HILL

June 7th, 2010 9:28am Report this comment

This is absolutely no time to ring-fence international aid. We are not the only country to give aid, it is sent to places where it is not needed and too much is wasted of both public and charitable money. Until every penny with a perhaps 1% 'wastage' allowance is accounted for in careful reviews, there should be a full stop on any more. I watched a programme about Africa in which women were still carrying water in old buckets miles every day. This simply should not now happen, given the billions that have been poured into that hapless country. We cannot afford the aid - not for the time being. It is akin to my having a huge overdraft and a maxed out fistful of credit cards and owing money to all my friends and family, and continuing to send what is not mine to give, abroad to China, for heavens sake. It has to stop.

Michael Booth

June 7th, 2010 9:39am Report this comment

Well, DC has already u-turned on so many pre-election promises, a few more will hardly be noticed...

Simon

June 7th, 2010 9:39am Report this comment

How can they ignore Nick Clegg?

Without his votes they may not get the budget through...!

This is a good thing - we need a broad bases of electoral and parliamentary support for the cuts that have to be made and the painful (for some anyway) changes that will be part of that.

chris as usual

June 7th, 2010 10:03am Report this comment

We know that politicians are devious; but they must now rely on hope that what is good for the country, and brought about, will not result in their rejection in a future election. What is the alternative?

One think is for sure; the best way of wrecking the country's chance of sustainable recovery is to let rampant inflation take over. If cutting back public expenditure to bring us back to reality means some deflation and pain, it is the better alternative. The challenge is to ensure that the cuts are 'fair' and the better off should be prepared for this.

This is a much better solution than punitive tax rises. If taxes have to rise, then tax on consumption is the clear option. (By all means catch the tax dodgers and short term profiteers).

Alfred T Mahan

June 7th, 2010 10:31am Report this comment

Totally agree with Susan Hill about aid. Why on earth are we borrowing money from, among others, Chinese investors which we then give to China as aid so they in turn can give it as aid to another country? It's pointless and damaging.

anxiouswarrior

June 7th, 2010 11:03am Report this comment

again the fanatics on the right in collusion with the liberals no less see this unfortunate situation of the collapse of the free market as in ideal oppurtunity to punish the poor and the unfortunates in our society when all the time missing the real culprits ie the banks the spivs on the square mile and the insane belief in that the market knows best , by the way the liberals will be destroyed by colluding with this treachery

Neil Wilson

June 7th, 2010 11:04am Report this comment

"If taxes have to rise, then tax on consumption is the clear option."

Actually the clear option is to increase the cost of imports and reduce the cost of exports - which you could achieve by not borrowing money from the Chinese and simply just spend.

The best mechanism for controlling inflation would be a tax on freehold land, which should replace the interest rate the BoE currently use.

Increasing a land value tax rather than interest rates means that you can reduce our housing speculation near instantly without increasing the borrowing costs for productive businesses.

AF

June 7th, 2010 11:19am Report this comment

Surely we are doing enough for the Chinese when we continue to purchase their goods.

Julian

June 7th, 2010 11:25am Report this comment

Naoimi... Brown is too shameless to go.
He'll be in the Lords soon.

THX1138

June 7th, 2010 11:27am Report this comment

It's the Coalitions economy now, have fun guys, you're going to be the most hated Government of all time.

Simon Stephenson

June 7th, 2010 11:29am Report this comment

"Finally, George Osborne has been vindicated; but having convinced finance ministers, he must now carry the coalition and the country with him."

With respect, he won't have been vindicated until such time as it can reasonably be said that his recommendations were the correct choice. At the moment, all that can be said is that he and the mainstream are flowing in more or less the same direction.

It remains possible, of course, that the orthodox response to the economic crisis is as inappropriate as the orthodoxies that led to it, in which case any claim to Mr Osborne's vindication would be nonsense.

Peter Cameron

June 7th, 2010 11:37am Report this comment

What is this self-righteous bullshit from Cameron and Osborne about no gain without pain?
Roosevelt took the USA out of recession by reinforcing state spending.
All these so-called financial experts are the stupid morons who took us into recession with their halfwit ideas and advice.
I know one thing, it will not be the wealthy who bear the pain for govt cutbacks. They are all safely wrapped up in their tax avoidance schemes and they will leave ordinary people to bear the cost of ConDemn slash and burn.
Bunch of tossers, couldn't run a sweetie shop let alone a govt.

Roger Davies

June 7th, 2010 1:59pm Report this comment

Is Peter Cameron one of those near extinct left wing intellectuals? He certainly believes that facts must never get in the way of his opinions.
Cameron should have an active policy of driving Labour so far to the left that they will never ever be elected again. It is in the national interest.

Peter Cameron

June 7th, 2010 3:27pm Report this comment

@Roger Davies

Wishful thinking Roger. Perhaps if you took your head out of your arse you might see what is going to happen when deflation takes hold and a full-blown recession sweeps in which lasts for years.
You must be another troll with enough of your money to last out the pain.

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