May Day for the Prime Minister
James Forsyth 3:14pm
May 1st is becoming ever more important for Gordon Brown. Holding London and exceeding expectations in the rest of the country is the only thing that can put a stop to the increasingly frequent stories about how his government is doomed and he is the problem, see the Martin Kettle and Matthew Parris articles that Pete flagged up earlier today.
If Labour were to lose London and suffer heavy loses elsewhere, then the steady flow of stories about how the Brown government is in terminal decline will become a torrent. It is increasingly hard to see how Brown could turn things around in these circumstances.
The other problem for Brown if Labour does badly on May 1st is that he would be under fire from both the left and the right. The reformers would argue that he had allowed Cameron to capture the common ground while the left would say that he needs to let Labour be Labour and draw clear dividing lines between himself and Cameron.
It is rather ironic that Brown finds his fate so much in the hands of Ken Livingstone, a man that Brown can not stand. But if Ken is Leavingsoon then Brown probably will be in 2010.
Previous
Comments
Schadenfraude
April 12th, 2008 6:20pmOh how richly he deserves this fate.
Ann
April 12th, 2008 7:18pmDo you know ANYONE who can stand the ghastly KL?
Caroline
April 13th, 2008 2:22amCan there be another blog so utterly doom laden as this one, and with such carping commentators. Dear me, are you seriously suggesting that the PM should be concerned with what a Tony Blair supporting journalist and a failed Tory MP wittle on about? I sincerely hope that he’s taking a lead from that sensible Maggie Thatcher who completely ignored the lot of them. In fact, I’d expect that ‘the papers’ would have been one of the topics up for discussion when she came round for tea, and wicked rumour has it that the laughter could be heard in the hall - perhaps she was advising him against ringing the ‘Sun’ to enquire about the next day’s headlines like that nice John Major did when the press were at his throat too? You also say “If Labour were to lose London”… you don’t sound very confident - are you hedging your bets? And as for the local elections, after eleven years it will be a huge surprise if seats are not lost.
About Boris, we all know perfectly well that if he wins London the Tories will be ‘ecstatic’, but the reality is; on tenterhooks for the next couple of years waiting for him to say or do something completely ghastly, which is most likely, and ruin any chance of winning the GE. What are you going to do with him? You can’t give him a brain transplant, nail down his arms or never let him out in public. It has such potential to be hilarious that I’m almost wishing….
“But if Ken is Leavingsoon then Brown probably will be in 2010”
Don’t count on it, there’s a long way to go, and events - won’t always be difficult - dear boy. Cheer up.
Brook Whelan
April 13th, 2008 8:19amGordon Brown simply just does not look like a winner, whereas Tony Blair did.
Voters are also realising that this government is the most incompetent in living memory, and that Brown has no answers for todays issues.
May 1st will be the most crucial political date in this current parliament.
Things could get very interesting after May 1st indeed!
molesworth 1
April 13th, 2008 10:20amOne thing I have noticed over the last couple of weeks is the increased ferocity & regularity of the comic attacks on Brown. Obviously any incumbent is likely to be the butt of many a gag (good, bad or otherwise), but lacking Blair's natural charm, Brown cannot laugh it off so easily. I still remember what 'Spitting Image' & Steve Bell's 'If...' did for John Major.
It's also worth noting that Gordon is giving them plenty of ammunition (as evidenced by TwatTV on Guido's GuyNews YouTube channel on an almost daily basis) so the likes of 'Headcases', 'The Now Show', 'The Bugle Podcast' et al will not have to go scrimping around for material...
I think it's an interesting vector to watch; many people engage with political-comedy more readily than they do political-comment, so catching the mood of a laugh as the punch-line drops can be very illuminating. It also helps to keep the blood pressure down...
Ann
April 13th, 2008 12:32pmCaroline, you are a visitor from Planet X, right? You don't seem to be quite in touch with the mood of the country, to put it mildly. It's not just one Blairite journalist and one 'failed' Tory MP (you do telegraph your agenda quite loudly, don't you, dear? Mayhap you are Mrs Brown?).
Anyone who's lived here for 5 minutes and is not a brainwashed Brownite knows full well that we haven't had such an incompetent MP (and government) since Callahan. No, make that since Captain Heath.
Charm? To each their own, I suppose. My skin crawled the first time I saw Blair, and it's done so every time since.
Fergus Pickering
April 13th, 2008 1:01pmCaroline is surely a bloke. No woman could be so anti-Boris.
Caroline
April 13th, 2008 3:58pmAnn. ...’skin crawled the first time I saw Blair'...Hmm. That’ll cause a problem for you at the GE then. You’ll not be voting for (as was described to me yesterday by a ‘source’) ‘that smarmy child exploiting Blair clone’?
...’Anyone who's lived here for 5 minutes'... Puleeese. I hope you’re not trying to suggest that I’m one of those whining ex pats are you? who have left this country, and then, would you credit it - spend most of their time haunting our papers and blogs complaining about ‘OUR once great country’! Astonishing.
‘Mayhap you are Mrs. Brown?’ – Quaint language, and no I’m not Mrs. Brown. I might wish though that some who comment here were as charming and polite as she is alleged to be, and naturally, she’s much to well bred to ever think of calling anyone’s husband - ‘mad’ or a complete stranger - ‘dear’
Fergus. Do keep up. Only anti Boris for mayor. He’s such a silly billy and really makes me laugh - when he’s on the telly.
Fergus Pickering
April 14th, 2008 3:38amNo, Caroline. You are certainly a bloke. No woman could go on so long and be so boring. Or perhaps YOU ARE A MAN TRAPPED IN A WOMAN'S BODY. I've heard of people like that.
Caroline
April 14th, 2008 4:09pmFergus. OMG! I seem to have touched a nerve and made you shout. Fancy a Tory gent like you making such a strange implication about me, though it’s a predicable Tory trait. I do wonder though about your familiarity with women - ever heard of that female annoyance of ‘having the last word’ - and obviously hitting and running is not my style, though hitting below the belt is regrettably yours. You may have a point though about boring. Reading comments on this blog is mind numbing at the best of times and reminiscent of bullies huddling together in a school playground, egging each other on to be ever more ridiculous and offensive.