Waiting on AV

Nash

As someone who grew up in Australia and voted there I personally believe that AV "is the answer to a maiden's prayer".

Provided this coalition does well, AV could mean that Labour is "finished". It will however mean that the visible showings for the BNP, UKIP, Greens etc get more visible.

lot of Tories may vote 1-UKIP 2 -Conservative. If too many do, we will have a lot more UKIP MPs. However in places like Newcastle, Tories can vote 1-Conservative and 2-Liberal Democrats rather than X for the Liberal Democrats.

AV will show how people in a particular area really wish to vote.

TrevorsDen

One way to fight the next election assuming we have AV, and assuming the coalition is successful, would be for the 2 parties not to stand against each other in seats they held and where there was say a labour seat then under AV they could encourage their supporters to put the other party as second preference.

In fact the more you think about it, if the coalition can stay together then AV will suit it very well. I was never to fussed about the LDs ever merging with Labour since the centre and right wing part of their vote would swing to the tories. If the left wing part of the LD vote now goes to labour and the activists ditto then we have the same situation. A de-facto 2 party system with an in built right of centre majority.

The leaders debates at the next election should be interesting.

Vulture

What will kill the coaliton will be the steady erosion in public support for the Lib dems - already down to 16/17% and probably in single figures by 2011.

The protest voters who had always been the Lib Dem mainstay will go elsewhere - mainly to Labour or the Greens - as the cuts start to bite.

Faced with the loss of its council base to Labour, & the defection of its lefties in the same direction, Clegg and his Ministers ( who will naturally be reluctant to abandon the spoils of office) will be left as an isolated rump.

There will then follow a Lib split( it has often happened before) with the Cleggites clinging to the Tories and the majority, probably led by that reptile Hughes, going into opposition.

Whatever happens to AV the coaliton won't last beyond 2012.

2trueblue

What will kill the coalition is the continual drip, drip of negativity from the media.

In2minds

It's a small and very blurred picture, so I must ask, are they holding hands?

Richard of York

The Lib Dems have more chance of Clegg becoming PM after a coup than they do of getting AV. The Tories won't vote for it and Labour will either vote against or abstain on principle. This leaves 50-70 votes for with the next election on first past the post. LD's have made a real error in calculations. The cuts will make them the most unpopular party of the three main players. If the economy booms in the last two years it will play to the Tories if not it plays to Labour.
Liberals will split and sink. Once they joined the tories they kissed goodbye to electoral reform for another 30 years.
They should have stayed with the confidence and supply option, at least then they would always have a lever on to govt to pull but now they have nothing.

TrevorsDen

Richard of York as usual is clueless about what he is taking about. The coalition agreement 'agreed' to a referendum on AV. There is no parliamentary vote other than to agree the referendum, and there is clearly a majority for that (not least because labour proposed it when in office).

Its the public who will decide and I think they might just vote for it. If they do then for reasons I outlined in a previous post I think it will help the coalition.

The budget was well received in fact and what we probably now see is a true measure of 'LibDem' support in the country. As long as their MPs and prospective MPs have an access to govt, well it does not matter if its 16% or 20% and I think come the election they will have a strong hand to play in those seats where they are second to labour.

Verity

in2minds - I was going to say the headline should have read, "A rare photo of David Cameron wearing a jacket", but your comment is funnier.

libertarian

The comments as well as the original story show everything that is wrong with our "democracy".

Don't know if you are aware but we don't vote for governments or parties we vote for an individual MP. Our government is chosen for us by the Queen. So my 1,2 vote should be for the best people to represent my area.

In reality we don't need any of this nonsense we need to directly elect the executive and I don't care what voting method is chosen.

It desn't add up...

The way to keep Lib Dems in the coalition is to delay the referendum until the fourth year of the the Parliament. Allowing Clegg to press ahead post haste is a recipe for dissolution.

Most here seem to fail to understand that AV relies on the second preferences of the parties coming third and lower. That means second preferences in seats that are Lib Con battles have no effect unless you are voting for Labour, BNP, UKIP or Greens. In fact, AV will mean that seats are decided in many cases by the second preferences of minority parties. Expect a lot of robust immigration policy to emerge if we get an AV election. Ed Balls has obviously spotted this, which is why he is now "to the right of Enoch Powell".

Robert Eve

The important thing is to keep Labour out of office.

Anything legal considered.

Justicia

@libertarian: Shut up.

When you cast your vote you can do so for whatever reason you want. It is patently the case that the biggest party forms government and it is moronic to suggest that voters have to pretend this isn't the case to vote properly.

Also, loads of countries do not elect their executive and function as working democracies, as does ours. This is not the USA.

Verity

Justicia - "This is not the USA."

More's the pity. They now have a universal right to bear arms.

Richard of York

@Clueless Trevor,

I was talking about the commons vote the people will vote against the referendum only if it gets passed the commons....When will the MP's vote anyone know?

Andrea Gill

@TrevorsDen "There is no parliamentary vote other than to agree the referendum, and there is clearly a majority for that (not least because labour proposed it when in office)."

Indeed the Conservative and Lib Dem MPs will all vote for the referendum.

It's the people who get to vote on this, not saying it will be easy because there will be some Lib Dem voters and esp members who will not accept anything other than full PR.

However in the coalition negotiations, Labour's team admitted they couldn't get even that - which was in their manifesto! - through the Commons, so I will not be holding my breath hoping the Labour MPs will vote for the referendum as well!

neilmack

If the feeling in five years time is that the Coalition has succeeded in clearing up the economic mess, then the Finkelstein manoeuvre will work.

If the economy is still rubber-ducked, there'll be a Labour Government and a UKIP opposition. Time for all good men to come to the aid of the[Coalition] parties.

Tom FD

I'm not convinced. The British public does not like being told what to do. (Particularly by Conservative politicians.)

Verity

Tom FD
June 29th, 2010 8:49pm

I'm not convinced. The British public does not like being told what to do. (Particularly by Conservative politicians.)

As the Conservatives are non-prescriptive, your moronic statement fails. You love socialism because you are comforted by being told what to do.

JohnAnt

"Are they thinking, what he’s thinking?"
Probably. It will most likely come about.