Three questions about the AV referendum
Peter Hoskin 9:09am
So now, thanks to Left Foot Forward and reports this
morning, we know: the referendum on an alternative vote system will take place on 5 May 2011, the same day as same day as the English local, Scottish Parliamentary and Welsh Assembly
elections. There are plenty of ins and outs, whys and wherefores - most of which are neatly summarised by David Herdson over at Political Betting. But here are three questions that pop into my head,
and are worth idly pondering on this sluggish Friday morning:
1) Does this strengthen the divide or weaken it? Holding the AV referendum on the same day as local and regional elections was always on the cards: it's the best way to ensure a relatively high turnout, and it smoothes the logistics of it all. But you wonder how it will play within the heat of an election battle, with Lib Dems and Tories gunning for each other anyway. Will Tory resistance to AV make the the divide between the two more pronounced and poisonous? Or will the very fact of the vote placate the Lib Dems, and ease any underlying tensions?
2) Would this compensate for a poor Lib Dem performance? One of the biggest worries in Coalition Land is that the Lib Dem's downwards trend in the polls will be reflected in election results next year. At that point, all kinds of difficult questions could arise about what the Lib Dems are getting from their link-up with the Tories, and even about the leadership of Nick Clegg. A win in the AV referendum could nullify some of that anger. But a defeat could send it spinning into overdrive.
3) What would Labour do? David Miliband has already been on the airwaves this morning, saying that he would support a 'yes' vote in any AV referendum. Given how this was a Labour manifesto pledge, there's a strong chance that the majority of his colleagues would want to do similar. Which certainly throws up the potential for cross-party mischief. We could, perhaps, get a situation where the Tories are campaigning against a joint Labour and Lib Dem "progressive alternative," so to speak. And you can bet that the Lib Dem left would relish that.
All in all, the referendum is shaped to be one of the most significant moments in the life of the coalition. And now the countdown has well and truly begun.
Previous
Ian Walker
July 2nd, 2010 9:24am Report this commentRecent polls have shown nearly 2/3rds of the public will vote yes, making it almost a given. So I expect the Tories will keep quiet and let it follow its course.
No point in vociferously backing a loser.
nonny mouse
July 2nd, 2010 9:33am Report this commentLabour are going to be hit hard in 2015 if AV passes. Will the turkeys vote for Christmas? I predict that one or more of the Labour leadership candidate will come out against AV and the leadership election could be thrown wide open.
AndyinBrum
July 2nd, 2010 9:36am Report this commentJust out of interest, do you have any polling data on how an AV vote would go, I feel that it will help the Tories more than they think
Mycroft
July 2nd, 2010 9:40am Report this commentThe LDs will just have to get used to the fact that their vote is bound to down as soon as they enter coalition with anyone whatever, so to ask what they 'are getting out of the coalition' in that respect is a stupid question. What they are getting is influence in government and the carrying out of some of their policies. Would it really be better for them to have higher poll figures and no influence?
Minnie Ovens
July 2nd, 2010 9:46am Report this commentOver the past 50 years most of the meddling with our constitution has been shallowly though through and therefore has led to dire fallout to the detriment of our traditional liberties.
Be warned about that for which you wish(especially any Liberal Democrat "policy").
It most likely will come back to haunt you.
Edward
July 2nd, 2010 9:55am Report this commentLabour does extremely well out of FPTP - much better than the Tories. Will its backbenchers support this bill?
strapworld
July 2nd, 2010 10:13am Report this commentwhat is so bloody annoying is the fact that this government prefers the guardian for its press releases rather than Parliament.
i thought this was going to be different. I thought Cameron and team were going to ensure Parliament got these announcements first! No we have got the same old same old!
Frankly, it is a disgrace. Parliament is the place for ALL announcements then the press can take up the story- if there is any!
But can anyone explain WHY the Guardian?
denis cooper
July 2nd, 2010 10:13am Report this commentHas the Electoral Commission been consulted on this?
As I recall they've argued in the past that referendums should not be combined with elections, even though it would be simpler and slightly cheaper to do so.
I tend to agree with that, because with two campaigns running in parallel up to the same polling day the result of the referendum may be influenced by whatever happens in the election campaign, just as much as by whatever happens in the referendum campaign - which would partially defeat the object of holding a separate referendum on a specific issue.
And isn't it also true that not every voter in the country will be invited to cast a ballot in an election next May 5th?
Looking at this:
http://www.gwydir.demon.co.uk/uklocalgov/elec2011.htm
it's the Scottish Parliament, the Welsh Assembly and 280 local authorities in England; but surely those 280 authorities won't cover the whole of England, and eg as far as I can see on a quick search there won't be any in London (not until 2012 (GLA) and then 2014 (boroughs)).
So isn't there a risk that the national referendum result might be skewed by differences in turnout in different parts of the country, depending on whether there are elections on the same day?
Richard of York
July 2nd, 2010 10:55am Report this comment@Strapworld
"why the Guardian"
Simple its the only Liberal Democrat paper capable of mustering the anti coalition troops......it is also the paper most read my Labour voters with an IQ over 50.
The Independant would not do as it would ask too many questions and run a full editorial on the views of the opponents to try and balance the arguments to come in the Evening Standard later that day.
The policy of feeding the Guardian with scoops is to get the coalition spin out first. In return for the scoop the Guardian then sweeten anything that might have a bad smell when examined closer.
If The Guardian stop playing ball then the scoops stop...like I said simple.
PrimroseLeague
July 2nd, 2010 11:01am Report this commentGood God RoY, a post of yours I completely agree with (well, the facts rather than the whys and wherefores around whether that is a sound strategy or not). Think I might have to go and have a lie down. I think you're absolutely right though...
libertarian
July 2nd, 2010 11:02am Report this commentThe ONLY thing to be learned from any of this is that ALL of our politicians couldn't give a flying one about democracy.
Which probably sums up why our President and Leader is Baron Rumpy-Pumpy
strapworld
July 2nd, 2010 11:14am Report this commentRichard of York. Thank you.
Robert Eve
July 2nd, 2010 11:43am Report this commentJust vote no to AV.
Cuffleyburgers
July 2nd, 2010 1:40pm Report this commentSo what the coalition? In a year the unpalatable stuff will have been done and without them the Tories can then procedd to unpick the BBC and the EU, refound the NHS on market principles and generally complete the programme - the lidbems will have done their work of sweetening the pill of the initial drastic cuts.
Plus AV is not necessarily a train crash for the Tories, and given the generally rightward leaning of the electorate could ensure a permanent majority.
yank
July 2nd, 2010 2:17pm Report this commentCuffleyburgers: "So what the coalition? In a year the unpalatable stuff will have been done and without them the Tories can then procedd to unpick the BBC and the EU, refound the NHS on market principles and generally complete the programme - the lidbems will have done their work of sweetening the pill of the initial drastic cuts.
Plus AV is not necessarily a train crash for the Tories, and given the generally rightward leaning of the electorate could ensure a permanent majority."
.
.
In just 3 sentences, Cuff exposes all.
In this strategy, AV opponents would even have a principled argument to banner, if they insisted on proportional voting blocks as part of these changes, and could accept no less.
An overall brilliant strategy... in tune with the times... events... and what's actually doable within them.
egh
July 2nd, 2010 2:57pm Report this commentThe only referendum we need is on withdrawal from the euSSR. That done, an independent government can set about replacing the electoral system with one that reflects the wishes of the people.
Never mind all this fancy, complicated foreign rubbish that nobody is meant to understand anyway.
non mouse
July 2nd, 2010 3:06pm Report this commentJust give us a chance to say BOO to brussles. That's all we want.
Kittler
July 2nd, 2010 3:38pm Report this commentAV. Polls show 2/3rds public will vote yes ???
I would have thought the answer from 95% would have been - what!
Rhoda Klapp
July 2nd, 2010 3:49pm Report this commentOn the day the Tories start to unpick the BBC and the EU and all the rest, the public will be preoccupied with something rather more serious. The flying pig problem.
David Lindsay
July 2nd, 2010 5:10pm Report this commentA big referendum turnout in Scotland and Wales. A creditable one in those parts of England having local elections on the same day, which would always include London and the old metropolitan counties due to the strange electoral arrangements that obtain there.
But in the areas most likely to vote Tory, and the areas of England most likely to vote Lib Dem, very low turnouts indeed, due to the higher ones elsewhere being nothing to do with the question on the referendum ballot paper.
It is very odd.
Could it be that Cameron expects traditional Labour and ex-Labour voters to be the people least likely to vote for something like this? If so, then I think that he might be onto something.
denis cooper
July 2nd, 2010 5:43pm Report this commentI may be wrong and I stand to be corrected, but I don't see any elections lined up for London next May.
Naomi Muse
July 2nd, 2010 5:56pm Report this comment@strapworld. Because the Guardian abandoned Labour about a month before the election and therefore is the voice of Torydom.
C Brooks
February 18th, 2011 11:58am Report this commentBefore deciding yes of no on AV I should like to know just which AV system is proposed. In particular, will voters be required to rank all the candidates on the ballot paper? This is the system used in Australia. Our will voters be able to limit their rankings, perhaps to only one candidate so that if their particular choice is eliminated their ballot paper will thereafter be discounted. Have we been told about this>
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