Grim predictions
Peter Hoskin 8:57am
As James said the other day, May 1st is becoming increasingly important for Gordon Brown. A better-than-expected set of Labour results, and he can start to reassert his dominance. A bad set of results, and the chatter about his political demise will only get louder.
Unfortunately for our Prime Minister, the latter scenario looks more and more likely. In today's Times, a group of experts marks Labour down for a local election battering. One even predicts that Labour's share of the vote could drop to around 25 percent – that significantly undercuts the 28 percent share that party insiders allegedly expect, and would be the their worst performance for 30 years.
Of course, predictions don't necessarily come true. But this latest warning should at least cause more bitten fingernails on Downing Street.
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Comments
Simon Orr
April 16th, 2008 9:43amLabour have managed expectations very well in local elections the last 2 years. Painting 900 Tory gains as disappointing for them and the media (BBC) towing the line on the night itself. It will all come down to projected share of the vote. If its lower than 2004 then its bad. Anything else can be painted as recoverable, as indeed it was in 2005.
David Lindsay
April 16th, 2008 11:20amOh, get a grip! It's not as if the Tories would change anything, anyway. So who cares who wins?
Labour might do badly in the forthcoming local elections, two years before the General Election? So what? Governing parties do that routinely. There is plenty of time yet for the Tories to slip up.
Even the Cameron-loving media pack will have a job selling the probable Tory showing at the next by-election as any sort of triumph, although they will certainly give it a go.
But I have a hunch that a long-suffering Oxfordshire publican will finally tell the Bullingdon Club to stick their cash, he’ll see them in court. Then the dominoes really will start to fall.
So enough of this speculation about handing over to David “differentials within schools are about which teacher you are given” Miliband (I was there when he said it), or to Ed Balls, who can barely form words with his mouth.
Both went to Oxford, Balls from a public school (mysteriously unmentioned in his Who’s Who entry) and Miliband from one of those economically elite pseudo-comprehensives. And that is the key.
Fleet Street and the BBC, yes, we do now have the first ever Prime Minister to hold a degree but not an Oxbridge one. Deal with it.
RW
April 16th, 2008 2:40pmBrown's alleged "dominance" was, as is now all too clear, an elaborate illusion maintained by glowering, obssessive secrecy, plotting against others and statistical con-tricks. He can't re-assert it because it no longer exists. Reputations are much, much harder to regain than to lose, and sometimes it's impossible. The illusion has been shattered. He's been rumbled and he knows it.
Tiberius
April 16th, 2008 4:17pmSorry to go off-topic, but I must ask if one of the journos will fill us in on the breach of electoral etiquette committed by Jacqui Smith in announcing the extra police numbers being allocated to anti-terrorist duties.
Pete Hoskin
April 16th, 2008 5:29pmTiberius: coming right up!