More grist for the welfare reform mill

Wily Trout

What the 1.8m will need, then, is a job. Time to start lifting Brown's red tape and tax burden from commerce, especially small businesses and sole traders.

Michael Taylor

Here's an answer to the question. The govt should do some research to find out what proportion of each age demographic is sufficiently disabled as to be unable to work in each developed economy. And then compare that proportion to the proportion which are actually claiming disability benefit in the UK. If there's a mismatch between the proportions, then we can conclude there's a systemic problem. Solution? Restrict the disability benefit pot to the size that corresponds to the proportion one would 'expect'.

I can't see why this kind of international benchmarking can't be applied to other aspects of the welfare state. For example, if the UK starts falling behind in international educational comparisons, adjusted for per capita education expenditure, one should assume this is prima facie evidence of institutional failure within the UK's educational establishment. Etc.

Noa

Wily Trout

Sole traders?

Do we not need to be concerned that the resulting economic recovery could create an unsustainable demand for other fish to fry?

JR

Lets assume all of these claimants go onto JSA or become economically inactive not on benefit (because a lot of them will be middle class women with partners working). There are also a lot of discouraged workers not in the labour supply currently that will be encouraged back in if and when demand/wages increase.

The UK had one of the highest employment rates in the world pre recession. Canada had a similar employment rate, roughly similar net % immigration, lower incapacity benefit (equivilent) receipt but much higher unemployment. That is probably what the UK is going to have to get used to - a NAIRU of around 2.5 million people on the JSA count. Which is a political challenge.

JR

Michael - that's roughly what happened in terms of the WCA and incapacity benefit reform. There appears to have been a slight accident in that the disallowance rate is higher than expected however the overall effect will be to put the UK near the bottom of the OECD table as opposed to near the average.

Current position here - http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/21/22/42654215.xls

In terms of international comparisons the UK has a lower % than most of the scandinavian countries. It is also lower the USA if you include their huge war disablement pension schemes and state run disabled programmes (the OECD have a funny definition). This was one of the nasty little secrets of Reagan America (and indeed Thatcher Britain).

If you're interested there's plenty of information here - http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/21/22/42654215.xls

Mark

Big caveat to this, though: the figures relate to *new applicants* being assessed for ESA for the first time, not to existing IB claimants being reassessed to see if they qualify for ESA. They don't tell us anything about the existing caseload, and the fact that the majority of new ESA claimants don't get ESA doesn't tell us anything about whether they would have qualified for IB under the old system.

(Note: I'm not saying they wouldn't have qualified, I'm saying that this tells us nothing about whether they would have qualified or not.)

schrodinger

The thing is if you make the medical test harder and harder to pass then more and more people will fail it and eventually the only people who will be found incapable of work are those who are dead!!!

Move the goalposts so close together then very very few will get through them but that doesn't mean they can work.

JR

Good point by Mark. Previous research suggests more people will qualify because people get sicker whilst on IB. The other effect will be that those being moved off IB (as opposed to not moving onto ESA) will be further from the labour market and less attractive to employers. A large group of clients will appear on JSA with the characteristics of the very long term unemployed and may be more likely to stay there.

TomTom

The roads and buses will be so crowded if those on Disability return to work at the same time as the coaches from Poland and Romania arrive at Victoria....will we need to build more motorways to handle the congestion ?

libertarian

@Wily Trout

You are correct.

It is about time we encouraged savings again and we actually started to put in place tax and anti bureaucracy incentives to encourage job creation and enterprise

Golur

I'm all in favour of getting people off benefits where possible (note, off benefits is not the same as in work) but should say that, from personal experience, we must be very very cautious of these figures. The medicals are done on a contract basis, and having recently attended one with a friend, who was initially passed as OK to work, have grave doubts as to their efficacy. The lady in question, an old friend of my wife, is blind (with dog, white stick, etc), very nearly totally deaf, and epilptic. She lives in sheltered accomodation, and is on more pills than Elvis ever was. She was passed as OK to work as, in the doctor's words "lots of blind people hold down a job". Indeed they do, can't argue with that. She was in and our of the 'medical' inside 10 minutes - he asked no questions, but even in that time it should have been clear that no-one would ever employ her to do anything, ever.

So, great idea - but be careful. It will only take a few stories of hardship caused by stupid, stupid, quota-chasing doctors to hit the press before the entire scheme is discredited. And I'm sure there are people who would love to do just that.

Richard of York

Many of my patients who are on IB could work if sufficient provisions were made for them by employers. I know some who are desperate to get back into work but find it impossible as they are over-looked by employers who do not see them as a worthwhile employee.
There is also a problem with age discrimination where people over 50 are simply disregarded or too expensive to train. In this age where a CV has to open the first door anyone who has not worked for more than 12 months has almost no chance of getting a foot in the door.
More must be done to force/incentivise employers to take long term unemployed on.
Anyone who has gone from full-time well paid work into JSA for 12 months or more will certainly be suffering from low self worth and possibly depession. If untreated will get worse and lead to severe mental health issues.
Employers should be made to answer all applications, and give written reasons if applicants are rejected. Maybe if employers were to face strict penalies for discrimination they might see the longterm jobless figures come down.

davidk

@ schrodinger (2.31pm). That is 100% correct.

Of course, some people wont be satisfied until the Workhouses are up and running again.

Peter From Maidstone

Glour, I don't think a few mistakes will discredit the scheme - although the BBC and media will try to do that in any case. I imagine that every single working person in the country knows someone who could work but chooses not to even try, and therefore the weight of opinion among those who are funding the country will need an awful lot of mistakes to happen before it changes its mind.

Rhoda Klapp

There are no bloody jobs. And if you are over 50 you might as well be crippled for all the chance you have of being employed.

Tim Carpenter LPUK

@RoY "More must be done to force/incentivise employers"

Lovely. Just what we need. Not.

If employers felt able to take a risk on temporarily employing someone to see if it worked out, maybe there would be more fluidity, but no, we have all manner of legislation, penalties and threats to make employers only chose the safest bets.

Some of the unintended consequences of an over-regulated job market, including minimum wage.

Victor Southern

@ RoY
"There is also a problem with age discrimination where people over 50 are simply disregarded"

RoY being, of course, the contributor who makes disparaging remarks here about wrinklies, zimmers and dentures!

Suddenly a volte face, accompanied by a new ability to spell, punctuate, write coherently and even sport a medical degree.

Happy days.

Anne Wotana Kaye 1

Rhodda Klapp: Unfortunately you are right. There haven't been real jobs for a long time, and how many shelf-fillers and call-centre operators do we need? In any case, the call- centres have mainly been transferred overseas. Manufacturing is a dead art in Britain, and if skilled tradesmen are required,our 'patriotic' bosses call upon a 'little man from Poland'. The saddest thing is that ageism has rendered people in the prime of life as too old. I've seen once active and happy people literally wither on the vine, growing old and depressed with no future. The unemployed or under-employed young often dissipate themselves on drink and drugs, with at the best unmarried teenage pregnancies, and at the worst STIs, including AIDs. Even more dreadful, bored youth finish up with both STIs and unwanted pregnancies.

Richard of York

@Tim

So what do you do with the people over 50 who will become redundant in the next ten years?
It is important to note that a 50 year old on JSA is not saving for a pension either.
How long before this time bomb explodes and the govt wake up.
Most over 50's are most at risk of mental health problems and physical illness.
Far from raising the retirement age there is a hidden retirement on benefit that goes unreported.

Richard of York

@Victor

Well there is a rather large population of wrinkly Little Englander zimmer shufflers on this site....it's just too easy, I can't resist.

Did you not know, I am a dirty foriegner with a medical qualification? I see you fought peeps who karnt spel r orl fick

Just to point out 50 is not old.....it only means you are worthless to an employer.
The money you could contribute to the economy is unworthy unless its spent on strong alcho-pop or Italian handbags and subscriptions to the Times paywall.

The insurance policies and savings plans that line the pockets of city traders mean nothing unless it comes from a pimple faced yoof.
The devoted Grannies and Grandpas spending money on cupboard love brats are ok but only if they also give trust funds a boost for The Palmer Tomkinson Glebe's of this world to squander in ponzi schemes.
There is a legion of people who want, can and would work if the govt stopped this discrimination.
Still not much work for a boiler maker or riviter about these days.
Thinking about it when was the last time you saw a womens hairdresser over 50 or a Policeman for that matter.

Robert Taggart

Speaking as a former IS scrounger, now having to seek work... where are all these new jobs ?
Question, would you employ a middle aged, unhealthy, 'portly' chappy with as little as eight weeks work out of a possible twenty nine years, who has no real desire for it ?
As for moi... just keep those giros coming, cheers !

Noa Zrk

RoY
"Thinking about it when was the last time you saw a womens hairdresser over 50 or a Policeman for that matter."

My neighbour is a policeman of 53 years. He retires in two years on a final salary linked pension. 14 years earlier than me, working in the rump of UK industry and supporting him, you and the Benefits polity.

Richard of York

@Noa Zrk
Don't doubt you know an old PC but is he behind a desk or on the beat?
As for his pension well thats ok with me if he has earned it, no real difference to the army Major retiring at 55.
My sympathy is for the Middle manager of a private firm who's boss sees him as easy cannon fodder to protect the bright young cocain addicted whizz kid. Maybe even the Primary school teacher who's head sees sacking her as a good way to balance his budget for a new bright young graduate from the modern free thinking polytechnic.
The problem will be, and no-one has addressed this is, who and how will the shortfall in their pensions be paid?
Most people look to the last 15 years of work to really top up the pension pot.

2trueblue

If Liebore did not manage to get the numbers down during 13yrs of growth it is unlikely that it can be done in the worst recession of our time.
What can be done is to cut waste in areas where it is clear that is beyond belief, e.g., the family in a house costing £8,000.00 per month to rent. Whoever authorized that should have to sort it out, and then swiftly fired. It is not as if this was a one off case. Where is the reality in all of this? There should be cap, otherwise it makes no sense.

Richard of York

@2Trueblue

George Osborne, when asked by the select committee, answered that in london there are 5,000 families claiming more than £450 pw in HB. Now that would make the number claiming £2,000 pw very low indeed. I suspect that there is probably only one.
I suspect that as Kensington is a Tory council and the fact that this family are Somali is likely to be a political plant.
Just like so many statements from this coalition at the moment, they border on the ridiculous, headline seeking and provocative, most are never backed up and die away under scrutiny.
Just like the accusation of a scorched earth policy Labour were supposed to have had in the run up to the election.....when pressed they could not provide any treasury letters to say the policy was unfunddable.

alexsandr

Richard of York
July 27th, 2010 6:28pm

If you claim JSA you get NI contributions credited.

Wily Trout

The best way of encouraging employers to take a punt on a long-term unemployed or benefits claimant is to make it easier for them to sack that person if it doesn't work out.

Wily Trout

Noa at 1.30 pm yesterday: interesting question, I'll mull it over.

Richard of York

@Alexandr
You numbskull......who pays for the NI contribution?
Do you know what the basic state pension is?

anxiouswarrior

will the evil right treat the banks and the spivs and the rich in the same way as they choose to persecute the poor

joe

Welfare reform not befor time ?
in my small town alone you see the same people of working age doing the pub round's daily who are supposed to be ill on so-called incapacity benefit too ill too work but not too ill too sit in the pub allday long drinking beer at the taxpayer's expence , thee's scrounger's must have cost this Country £Billions