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Tuesday, 27th July 2010

A worrying poll for the Tories

David Blackburn 5:46pm

Ipsos-MORI’s July political poll will make uncomfortable reading for the coalition as the summer break looms. It has the Tories on 40 percent, Labour on 38 percent and the Lib Dems on 14 percent . It is just one poll – the Tory lead is usually around 7 points – but the Lib Dems’ crisis is real enough. George Eaton’s spot on when he says that Labour’s resurgence is ‘impressive’. The worry is that cuts have not yet been felt, and that the Lib Dem position can only get worse.

The coalition has all sorts of possible plans to protect the Lib Dems. With growth as it is, Osborne could be persuaded to limit cuts. The parties are seeking a closer political union by attacking Labour’s position on the deficit. However, a electoral union will likely be the last resort.

Filed under: Coalition (2088 more articles) , Conservatives (2311 more articles) , Labour (2142 more articles) , Lib Dem crisis (7 more articles) , Liberal Democrats (1155 more articles) , Polls (286 more articles) , Public finances (753 more articles) , Recovery (130 more articles) , Spending cuts (626 more articles) , UK politics (5405 more articles)

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AndyLeeds

July 27th, 2010 6:02pm Report this comment

Well what do you expect ? The BBC have been busy telling us all how dreadful the cuts are, and how wicked the Tories and LibDems are to do any cuts, for the last 3 months, so it is only to be expected that some of the dim-witted people who live on our island and who vote for the Labour Party will believe it. If I was Osborne and Cameron I would press on at the fastest pace possible.

statechaos

July 27th, 2010 6:04pm Report this comment

The great British public don't like the taste of the unpalatable medicine that the Coalition are dishing out.Tory voters are realists, LibDems are idealists, and astoundingly 38% of our naive electorate are deluded enough to think that Labour might have the answer to the problems they exacerbated.

ollie

July 27th, 2010 6:05pm Report this comment

Just 2 months after the election, pundits and hacks are already getting hysterical over opinion polls. Why? Nothing of substance to write about?

Rhoda Klapp

July 27th, 2010 6:08pm Report this comment

Well, I reckon it's all them right-wing policies.

Or that David Davies stirring things up.

luke

July 27th, 2010 6:11pm Report this comment

The problem, I think, is that the election didnt win an argument for the new Government. In part because the Tories didnt prosecute one about their real plans (VAT and the speed of deficit recuction were both well hidden) but partly because the result was inconclusive.

The public like the look of their new leaders. Cameron is an impressive performer as PM and they like their politicians co-operating. But the facts emerging about the economy seem to support the Darling argument about growth and the state of the finances which the public do not see the election as having rejected.

Richard of York

July 27th, 2010 6:19pm Report this comment

It took 6 years before Labour dropped below 43% and even then it was a blip that took 9 years to start to give the tories hope.
At its height Labour were 64% in govt.
Seems this poll is going to worry Clegg more than Cameron but the Tories have some things to ponder on too.
As the cuts bite and the jobless figures surge, this poll can only get worse.
If a double dip were to happen then all hell will break lose in the media.
Time to pack a shrink in with the suntan lotion for the coalition.

The hacks will be busy, while starved of politics, they will be hatching plots and schemes just to keep themselves amused.
Autumn spending round will be very interesting.

TrevorsDen

July 27th, 2010 6:24pm Report this comment

Its not a brilliant poll .. but really is it relevant? Just after an election.

And anyway it shows the govt on 54 and labour on 38. A lead of 16. Desperate news for Labour. YouGov has it 57-35; a lead of 22

We face a tough squeeze thanks the Labours legacy. Hardly likely to bring joy unbounded from the voters and the loopy wedge of LibDems can be expected to jump to Labour - leaving a solid centre right party.

TGF UKIP

July 27th, 2010 6:25pm Report this comment

Dave's monumental failure as Opposition Leader not just to nail Britain's worst ever government but even take them on in argument is now coming home to roost.

Labour instead of being dead, deceased, defunct has been allowed to live and is weekly being gifted easy targets by the assorted LibDems now in temporary power.

As for electoral union being "the last resort" - not if Dave has his way, that's probably what he has wet dreams about. Don't forget Dave is a self-professed progressive egalitarian exactly the same as the typical LibDem.

Chuck Unsworth

July 27th, 2010 6:30pm Report this comment

What real difference will such an opinion poll make to the voting patterns in the Houses of Parliament?

Nick

July 27th, 2010 7:06pm Report this comment

Just introduce a debt tax. Needs a nice name. Labour tax sounds about right.

It must appear as a cumulative figure on payslips, and then sit back.

Julian Fisher

July 27th, 2010 7:18pm Report this comment

Only 4 years and nine months to the next election. And that will be 4 years and nine months of economic growth, most likely. I don't expect that this poll will overly concern the coalition. But it will certainly help to bind the Lib Dem leadership.

Paddy

July 27th, 2010 7:26pm Report this comment

"Labours resurgence is impressive".

You must be joking.

They are finished - dead and buried.

They are but a distant memory now. Or should I say nightmare.

stereodog

July 27th, 2010 7:40pm Report this comment

I think that Labour are actually doing better now than they will when they elect their new leader. At the moment Labour are a formless mass that people can use to register their annoyance with the current government. The Lib Dems fulfilled this role during the last election campaign, and as we know their stratospheric poll numbers didn't translate into votes. When Labour elect a new leader they'll have a definate public face that people can potentially dislike and they'll come under pressure to define their position rather than being allowed to coast.

Tarka the Rotter

July 27th, 2010 8:11pm Report this comment

Nice one Nick, but I'd go a bit further - how about The Labour Debt Tax?

Pramston

July 27th, 2010 8:27pm Report this comment

Labours timing was perfection, they had the best result possible at the last election and they'll be back much sooner than they or we deserve. The next Labour leader will be odds on to be PM; by themselves or with Lib Dem support. The Coalition will survive just long enough to take the blame for the pain and then Labour will be back and probably unstoppable for at least two elections. Too many people are going to get hurt in order to pay Labours bill, and they will blame the Tories whose brand as the 'nasty party' will be confirmed. I detest everything about it, but the Labour party has played a blinder.

roger

July 27th, 2010 9:03pm Report this comment

You wonder if this country could become ungovernable.38% want to see another Labour government in power after the last 13 years.I'm speachless. Who are these people. Those in public service non jobs,the irresponsible union barons,the uncontrolled immigrants who have been let in to bolster the labour vote and the welfare scroungers frightened of being made to contribute to society at last? If the coalition doesn't get control of the problems these people bring this country is done for.

strapworld

July 27th, 2010 9:47pm Report this comment

Isn't this total and absolute rubbish!

Mr Blackburn you delight in attempting to create a problem with the coalition. Contrary to what some are saying the polls show that the majority of people like the coalition.

However one poll does an opportunity to kick again.

People will not be happy until we get another Labour administration. I will remind you of that when that times comes Mr Blackburn, because the likes of you are beating the drum.

Give us all a break.

RedBull

July 27th, 2010 10:56pm Report this comment

I don’t understand why people from a country which spends circa £80bn a year, every year paying people not to work; or £9bn (net) a year, every year to belong to the pointless EU; seem to be in such a twist about the £1.2bn a year that we are spending for a fixed period of 7 years in the run up to the Olympics.
Roll on 2012. The Olympics are one of the good things in the world, and they help bring different peoples and countries together for a change. It is an honour for our country to be chosen to hold them. I am certain that they will be a great success, leave a good legacy, & make us all really proud.
So I say “bah-humbug” to you ‘bah-humbug bores’!

RedBull

July 27th, 2010 11:00pm Report this comment

Plse disregard above, managed to post it against the wrong article.

2trueblue

July 27th, 2010 11:52pm Report this comment

Oh how well Liebore did in the past 13yrs. We all know what they did, apart from rob each and every one of the electorate blind. get a grip. The BBC have been so busy wheeling out the old Liebore hacks and they have lots to say, as they did when they were in power. Yes, that is what they did, talk, promise us things and delivered what? Debt, a divided country, increased child poverty, widened the gap between the rich and the poor, allowed the most corrupt parliament to sit during their tenure, and the above are just a taster of the havoc they caused. The media are a bored bunch of idiots who lack any real talent, integrity, journalistic skills, or ideas and think that they can brainwash the public further. We need saving from all of them.
Liebore are dead. Let them be so. They have destroyed the UK, time to rebuild.

Snowman

July 28th, 2010 12:56am Report this comment

Yap, the pain hasn't yet begun, and the headboy's already slipping. He should enjoy prancing around the world whilst he can.

Swiss Bob

July 28th, 2010 6:24am Report this comment

I'll never vote for any of the big three again. If their policies are not the same the results are.

Cameron has reneged on so many promises that I've lost count, he's pathetic.

The latest being more powers handed to the EU and an immigration cap so large and selective that it will make no difference.

You could have voted Labour and had the same result.

TomTom

July 28th, 2010 8:14am Report this comment

The next election will be inconclusive with no majority for any party. They will simply stage another Coup against the electorate and vote themselves into power. The ballot box will give way to street action as politicians are no longer controlled by voters but by i9nterest groups

Chris lancashire

July 28th, 2010 9:28am Report this comment

Cameron has proved, so far, an excellent PM - streets ahead of the last two. Meanwhile, Labour organises a leadership election between two geeks and a bully.

Polls? Who cares?

EVerard Digby

July 28th, 2010 10:20am Report this comment

The Labour Party are doing better in the polls without a leader.

Graham De Roy

July 28th, 2010 6:22pm Report this comment

On the basis of this poll, Labour should maintain the status quo - no leader, no policies - then they will stroll back into power at the next election

Essex Emigre

July 29th, 2010 7:54am Report this comment

"state chaos"
Your comment about Tories being "realists" and Lib Dems being "idealists" is an inspired and delightfully accurate precis.
Can you please complete this triumvirate with a word for Labour ?

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