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Thursday, 26th July 2007

The Tories have no plan b

7:38am

Fraser's piece is already making waves. The reason for this is that it poses the question that all Tories are thinking about but dare not voice - not least because they do not know the answer to the question: "If not Dave, then who?" To lose a fourth successive general election, as the polls suggest the Conservatives are on course to do, would be a savage blow to any party. The years 1992-94 (post-Kinnock, pre-Blair) have been airbrushed out of Labour Party history, but they should act as a terrible warning to those Tories who think that a bit of creative disunity now is what the party needs. As David Hare recalls in his book Asking Around, Labour was catatonic with grief and confusion after the 1992 defeat; Robert Harris wrote that the Labour Party, "as presently constituted", would never win an election again. Under John Smith, the modernisers lost their grip on the party and their collective sense of purpose: Tony Blair even thought of chucking it in and going back to the bar, only to be dissuaded by Gordon Brown (an irony if ever there was one). It was only the tragedy of Smith's death that put Blair at the helm of the party and renewed the modernisation process. What Fraser's piece shows is that there is no clear post-Cameron Plan B and no obvious dauphin waiting in the wings with a plan. No wonder Tory MPs are so rattled and were so supportive of their embattled leader at the 1922 meeting yesterday evening. But, as today's poll in the Daily Telegraph shows, the voters have already formed the impression that Dave is not in charge of his party. I am told that his performance before his MPs last night was very impressive: he will need to make many more such speeches after the recess. The Conservative Party is dicing with death.

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Praguetory

July 26th, 2007 8:22am Report this comment

What's Labour's plan B? The Tories goal is to win the next election. Bit early for succession planning.

Richard Jenkins

July 26th, 2007 8:43am Report this comment

The problem with Cameron is that he is too nice. Going to Rwanda was a huge political misjudgement, but no doubt (a) not having a huge ego he underestimated the symbolic leadership of just being at the floods; and (b)naturally courteous, he did not want to tell his Rwandan hosts, "sorry, something came up". Same issue with Willets and grammar schools - Cameron managed with a light touch, when what was needed was Blairist or Brownite control freakery, to cut the issue down before it ever started. He is one of the nice guys, and we all know where they finish. Cameron can fix the problem by learning to be a little less nice.

James T Kirk

July 26th, 2007 9:37am Report this comment

It is indeed hard to pin down precisely what has happened to the Tories since the May elections. To my mind, though, it seems to be a collective loss of nerve in the face of Brown's coronation. They have been cowed by the media's presentation of Brown as invincible (maybe Blair's clunking fist quip actually is the single biggest influence in all this) and have taken to the bunker rather than return fire with the huge quantities of ammunition Brown bequeathed them while Chancellor. Brown's coronation could be said to be the Tories' Pearl Harbor, and while the wreckage after both events may be comparable, the Tories, unlike the US, did actually have the means to prepare a defence.

Colonial

July 26th, 2007 11:17am Report this comment

Desperate times require desperate measures. Could a strategic, one off vote for the BNP shake the Tories out of their soggy torpor and produce a leader people can take seriously?

Michael McGowan

July 26th, 2007 11:37am Report this comment

The problems that the Tories are facing are the problems they have had for at least the last ten years but have never addressed. The endless search for a Messiah is simply displacement activity which enables them to avoid tackling real issues. They are in danger of becoming a virtual party with little infrastructure in large parts of the country and whose leadership has gone out of its way over many years to alienate its natural supporters: not just social conservatives but lower-middle class/working class strivers too. Despite seeking out new supporters, Labour has always looked after its heartlands. The Tories have stuck two fingers up to theirs. At Westminster, the Party is hopelessly split. People like Ken Clarke and Quentin Davies are left-leaning 1950's patricians who basically belong on the left. Only cultural distaste has stopped them defecting and now Quentin Davies has realised this. Others will follow. Furthermore, the pay, rations and club facilities of Westminster plus the opportunity provided by Opposition to pursue other financial interests mean that being out of office is far from unpleasant for many Tory MPs, starting at the top. Unlike Labour in the mid-1990's, they simply lack the stomach and workaholic instincts for the protracted guerrilla warfare needed to roll back the New Labour tide. They also face a far more determined enemy than Labour faced in the mid-1990's, not least because Labour has ideological bearings. The Tories have almost none. All told, asking the Tories to run an effective opposition is a bit like asking Lord Emsworth to run the French Resistance. Replacing Dave will not chnage anything much.

James T Kirk

July 26th, 2007 12:13pm Report this comment

Michael McGowan's argument is convincing, and in effect means that Cameron has merely provided a temporary respite from the default position, aided perhaps by Blair's unpopularity in his last few years. Is that it, then? Britain is now and for generations a one Party state?

Michael Gorman

July 26th, 2007 1:55pm Report this comment

Many people complain that we are run by professional politicians rather than people with experience of commerce, administration, law, etc. Mr McGowan seems to be arguing for even more professionalism; so lets hear it on behalf of the amateurs. British people are patriotic, but we want to feel relaxed about it.

Michael McGowan

July 26th, 2007 2:17pm Report this comment

I am simply suggesting that they need to be effective: whether or not they manage it as amateurs is their business. Part of the current problem is that there is now a perfectly respectable profession, quite well-paid and not too demanding, called being an opposition MP.

Brian Jenner

July 26th, 2007 3:14pm Report this comment

Michael McGowan is spot on. The Tory Party is organisationally dead. It's time to start a new party.

Take this example. My MP is an 80s throwback. He's just an ordinary backbencher, but worse he insists on holding on to his agent, who is a just very old-fashioned and bureaucratic.

Bournemouth is the key to the South West. You need a dynamic party organisation to start taking back the nearby seats and begin a recovery.

But Butterfill is staying put till 2014 if he can manage it. That means the repair work can't start for another SEVEN years.

The Tories did well here recently, not because they were good, but because people hated the LibDems. It obscures the fact that the Tories are pressganging their friends into being councillors, they're not recruiting fresh talent.

Six people hijacked the Labour Party and took it to Government. That's all it needs to wipe out the Conservative Party.

M

July 26th, 2007 5:17pm Report this comment

Why all this pessimism? It seems like everyone who have commented so far have already resigned to Brown and New Labour. It isn't given that Gordon Brown will be the PM after the next General Election, or that New labour is destined to rule Great Britain. Of course, the easiest course of action would be to concede victory to Brown and New Labour. It is never easy to rise to a challenge. The hard part is to convince the electorate that New Labour is at the root of our current problems, and that there isn't anything new about Gordon Brown. As someone else said, he is the tired old guy that have been in charge the last 10 years. A victory against Gordon Brown and New Labour is very possible, but the Tories have to believe in Tory Policy.

M

July 26th, 2007 5:17pm Report this comment

Why all this pessimism? It seems like everyone who have commented so far have already resigned to Brown and New Labour. It isn't given that Gordon Brown will be the PM after the next General Election, or that New labour is destined to rule Great Britain. Of course, the easiest course of action would be to concede victory to Brown and New Labour. It is never easy to rise to a challenge. The hard part is to convince the electorate that New Labour is at the root of our current problems, and that there isn't anything new about Gordon Brown. As someone else said, he is the tired old guy that have been in charge the last 10 years. A victory against Gordon Brown and New Labour is very possible, but the Tories have to believe in Tory Policy.

ad

July 26th, 2007 8:03pm Report this comment

Labour is in power. The Tories are not. What exactly can they do?

Charles Frith

September 2nd, 2007 10:30pm Report this comment

And what is Tory policy M?

Old Atlantic

March 30th, 2008 1:43pm Report this comment

The Tory plan is to get people to vote BNP by imitating Labour and saying what is needed is Labour's policy with a Tory majority.

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