Pakistan's double game in Afghanistan
Fraser Nelson 11:02am
So what is Pakistan up to? Cameron has a point: it is playing a dangerous double game
which I once outlined in a piece. But in today's Spectator, it is all spelled out by a writer
who is - in my view - the best authority on this mess and by some margin. Ahmed Rashid, whose book Descent into Chaos is the definitive work
on the Afghan war, explains that Karzai has effectively switched sides - he's given up on Nato (as, it seems, has Cameron) and now wants Pakistan to preside over talks with the Taliban:
" A few months ago Hamid Karzai would have been thrilled to have confirmation that American officers are speaking openly about how divisions of Pakistani intelligence are helping the Taleban. But after spending eight years criticising the ISI, he recently decided to cosy up to them. This change is crucial to understanding what is really happening in Afghanistan.
Karzai seems to have given up on the ability of the Americans, the Brits and Nato either to defeat the Taleban or even to talk to them. This is why he has turned to Pakistan and Iran: his own freelance attempt to try to broker a ceasefire with the Taleban which would involve a power-sharing deal."
So as Nato moves out, Pakistan moves in. It wants to win the endgame, to make sure the ISI eases a pro-Pakistan administration in Kabul - just as Iran wanted a pro-Tehran power group controlling Basra. Pakistan senses a looming power vacuum in Afghanistan created by the fact that neither the Brits nor the Americans have what Niall Ferguson called the "attention span" to finish the job. Do read the whole piece (subscribers can get it online, or free on their iPad).



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pete-s
July 29th, 2010 11:14am Report this commentIt is also worth reading Ahmed Rashid 'Taliban' 2001, this shows that the involvement of the ISI goes way back.
Yam Yam
July 29th, 2010 11:26am Report this comment... Meanwhile, more British squaddies arrive back at Brize Norton in coffins. For what?
Derek Pasquill
July 29th, 2010 11:41am Report this commentWaziristan.
Another helpful word in understanding the situation is Islam.
Ronnie
July 29th, 2010 11:49am Report this commentI wonder if The Spectator can make up its mind on this. David Blackburn accuses Cameron of making a mistake, now Fraser is saying Cameron has a point.
Pakistan, with western support, created the Taliban to fight the Soviet army in Afghanistan. It starts there.
bash
July 29th, 2010 11:56am Report this commentI dont see the problem, The Americans are double dealing all the time....
Widmerpool
July 29th, 2010 12:37pm Report this commentWell said Fraser! A very perceptive piece.
What a pity your colleague Backburn writes such childish "Little Englander" Stuff
As one famous Chinese leader said" it does not matter if the cat is black or white as long as it catches the mouse". Our paramount objective is to stop another 7/7!
Austin Barry
July 29th, 2010 1:18pm Report this commentWidmerpool@12.37:
"Our paramount objective is to stop another 7/7."
So let's quit Afghanistan and have the SAS lay up in garden shrubbery in the bombers' hometowns of Leeds, Dewsbury and Aylesbury
TrevorsDen
July 29th, 2010 1:25pm Report this commentQuestion is ... does anybody know what is going on?
The problem with trying to win this war is that we are not prepared to take the posse3s or provide the forces to win it.
This may be wise it may not be, but as things stand we are just marking time.
Of course this opinion itself may be baloney but one problem we have is the absence of any serious reporting of what is going on and what our plans and intentions are.
The US are taking over from us in Helmand and its likely they will care less about losses and get on with the job - we will have to wait and see how the rest of the year pans out. However I do not see Obama wanting to carry on into his last year and the re-election campaign.
I foresee us pulling out sooner rather than later on the false prospectus and fig leaf that the Afghan Army is big enough and trained enough to manage with just 'special advisers'.
Ahmed Khan
July 29th, 2010 1:35pm Report this commentThe Taliban was created by the Americans and British during the Russian invasion of Afghanistan. Both these countries recruited, trained and equipped the Taliban. However, just as soon as the Russia decided to withdraw, both Britain and American saw fit to walk away.
This left Pakistan with no choice but to make friends with the Taliban as it could not afford to have deadly enemies on both of its borders (Indian been the other).
To echo, Cameron’s concerns expressed yesterday, it is important that Pakistan eradicate the influence of Taliban from its secret services (ISI). Clearly Pakistan is reluctant to do this as it is concerned of the following facts and worried that Britain and America will walk away leaving them to clear the mess again!
1) America & Britain created the Taliban and just walked away leaving them to clear the mess.
2) When Pakistan tested its Nuclear Bomb, both Britain and America enforced sanctions against them.
3) The day after 911 both America & Britain suddenly decided that despite everything Pakistan is their best friend.
In order to eradicate Taliban’s influence in the ISI, both Britain and America needs to convince suspicious Pakistan that they will not do the ‘dirty’ again!
Jannie Geldenhuys
July 29th, 2010 1:47pm Report this comment@Ronnie
Pakistan and the US did not create the Taleban to fight the Soviets. They created the Mujaheddin. The two are quite different. The Taleban emerged in the early 1990s from remnants of part of the Mujaheddin.
It is unhelpful to confuse the Taleban and the Mujaheddin. the Taleban was at war with most of the rest of the Mujaheddin.
Mycroft
July 29th, 2010 4:26pm Report this commentAhmed Khan, I do wish you wouldn't lecture people about history of which you are plainly ignorant, it is wholly untrue that the Taliban were created by the Americans and British during the Russian invasion, they did not emerge as a force until after the Russians had left, and the West had noting to do with their creation.
harkol
July 29th, 2010 5:06pm Report this commentAhmed Khan:
Taliban was created by Pakistan, though money/weapons were supplied by US/UK. Pakistan setup the madrasas to train them, Pakistani land was used to house and rear them and Pakistani Army/ISI provided logistical support in their war in Afghanistan.
What was pakistan thinking while creating this monster? US/UK could afford to walk away as they are 1000s of miles away. How can Pakistan wash its hands off from its role?
Besides, after 1980s, it is Pakistan that continue to nurture and still nurtures Taliban. All the excuses you give are flimsy.
How about Pakistan's creation and support to groups like LeT, JeM? How about ISI's tactical support in all terror acts as these are all out in the open??
Pakistanis take the world for fools. You can fool some people for all time, all people for sometime, but not all people all the time.
Pakistan lost half its country due to its stupid policies, it'll split further due to its continued stupidity.
Luddite
July 29th, 2010 6:22pm Report this commentLet's never forget that the bombers of 7/7 don't fly from Afghanistan but drove down from Leeds.
Naomi Muse
July 29th, 2010 7:24pm Report this commentGood piece, Fraser.
The training camps in Pakistan have been spoken of before but not by a PM in the region. I think he was courageous. The fact he did not use the diplomatic language also means that neither India nor Pakistan can 'pretend' that Taliban training camps are not to be spoken of any more.
Now that these words have hit the airwaves, something needs to be done about them.
TGF UKIP
July 29th, 2010 7:33pm Report this commentFollowing 9/11 Afghanistan is the West's first real test and it is a test that the West is now massively failing with the Taliban's two best friend residing in the White House and 10 Downing Street.
Indeed the West does have its political calendar and its squeamishness over admitting to what the war is really about and the costs associated with effective surrender and the Islamists do have the time and the stomach for it.
What a sad and inadequate generation of political "leaders" the West is currently cursed by.
WetherspoonThree
July 30th, 2010 9:05am Report this commentPakistan has weak, and very corrupt, politicians and an over powerful and influential Military. It has always struck me on visits there how numerous and well equipped the Army are, certainly in comparison to India. Hell, they even have some sort of nuclear capability. So you have an imbalanced society without a political elite capable of solving the numerous structural problems... and oh I nearly forgot... then you have militant Islam!
William Boyd
July 30th, 2010 12:41pm Report this commentYes agree with all this, your 23rd July piece suspiciously prescient, a little leak of a leak perhaps :-), but on the money OK imho.
Thanks for pointing out Ahmed Rashid's book. On order.
Could someone perhaps send a link to dear Con Coughlin at the DT. He's sounding off today about the PM slandering Pakistan.
I was able to read Ahmed Rashid here at http://www.spectator.co.uk/essays/6172998/part_3/increasingly-isolated-karzai-turns-to-pakistan.thtml.
Stephen Green
July 31st, 2010 9:52am Report this commentIf you are going to have a war one must do so with the determination to win at all costs. That includes pursuing the enemy to the bitter end with no holds barred. With one exception the west has failed to apply this principal since the end of the Second World War.
So we have had wars ,either directly or by proxy resulting in partial succes accompanied by partial failure in
Korea
Vietnam
Somalia
Suez
Iraq
Cyprus
Isreal
Afganistan
...... the list is endless
The one exception The Falklands - thank you Maggie.
Better not to start unless you really mean to win!
Anne Wotana Kaye 1
August 1st, 2010 3:17am Report this commentThe hypocrisy of David Milliband (the brother with the Ian Huntley immature moustache) amazes one. Concerning Cameron's remarks about Pakistan, he stated "The prime minister's comments this week told only part of the story and that has enraged people in Pakistan. It is vital he shows that he understands the need not just for Pakistan to tackle terrorism but that he will support them in doing so and understand the losses they have suffered." Such empathy from Milliband for the unfortunate Pakistani victims of the Taliband, is complete bull sh*t. In his spiteful jabs against Israel, he sees no purpose in exposing the misery caused by the Hamas to the innocent citizens of Israel. Hamas is but the latest title for terrorists previously called El Fatah, right back to the early Fellahin who attacked civilian victims. Milliband knows that Israel is a soft target, and there will be little criticism for him to face. He can suggest that Cameron in India has "a big mouth" and damages Britain with his inexperience and poor diplomacy, but Milliband is not speaking out for the sake of British interests, he is banging away at his usual communist manifesto of hate.
JackSparrow
May 22nd, 2011 1:58pm Report this commentI am surprised that Pakistan has fooled everybody in believing that it has to control government in Afghanistan to maintain strategic depth against India, while this maybe partially true the real reason is disputed Durand line (look it up on google) between Afghanistan and Pakistan. A stable and strong government in Afghanistan will claim half of Pakistan, so they breed and protect taliban and people like Haqqani
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