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Tuesday, 17th August 2010

Sky News survey has the Lib Dems down to 8 percent

James Forsyth 1:18pm

It is just one poll and of the Sky News Panel but a survey to mark the Coalition’s 100 days has the Lib Dems down to 8 percent. (One note of caution, the sample seems to have more Tory voters from the last election than you would expect).
 
The Lib Dem’s falling poll ratings is rapidly becoming the biggest political problem facing the coalition. Combine it with the fact that The Sun’s You Gov poll today shows a plurality in favour of keeping first past the post and you have a pretty toxic brew for the Liberal Democrats.
 
If AV is rejected in a referendum next May and at the same time the Lib Dems take a pasting in the Scottish parliamentary Welsh assembly and English local elections than Lib Dems will start demanding from their leader with increasing volume what they are getting out of Coalition beyond providing cover for Tory cuts. 

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Jannie Geldenhuys

August 17th, 2010 1:37pm Report this comment

Lib Dem members can shout as much as they like but what are they do expect to happen?

If they withdraw from the coalition in such circumstances then they face electoral annihilation.

The Lib Dems have no choice but to see the Parliament through to its full term. it is by far their best chance of obtaining benefit from the coalition. And they all know it.

By the way, I think this poll is clearly a rogue.

Rhoda Klapp

August 17th, 2010 1:39pm Report this comment

"Scottish parliamentary Welsh assembly" I read this as one organisation, as I am sure is correct given the absence of commas. I just thought, 'what a concept!'. Why not bunch them all in together, they have one thing in common.

Frank P

August 17th, 2010 1:56pm Report this comment

8%?? But they are a defunct party, merged with another defunct party to form a watery mix of crushed testicles, idealistic reverie and broken promises. A non-government.

strapworld

August 17th, 2010 2:05pm Report this comment

If I were Cleggy I would issue a warning to his colleagues that it is the ridiculous comments by Hughes that is causing this.

When you consider their poll rating fell dramatically after Hughes started pontificating!

alexsandr

August 17th, 2010 2:16pm Report this comment

Mebbe Cameron should call a general election. We would then get a proper Tory government.....

firefly

August 17th, 2010 2:32pm Report this comment

Apparently this poll does not repercentage to take out the non voters and don't knows. According to those at politcalbetting.com that would rearrange it to be
CON 38%, LAB 36%, LD 16%. So if that's true then it's just a case of shockingly biased reporting trying to get a cheap headline in the slow news period. Yes it's not good news for the Lib Dems, but the same poll quotes Labour on 23%, which doesn't tally with the other polls, so the reporting of this as a like-for-like comparison with other results looks dodgy from the outset.

Chris

August 17th, 2010 2:33pm Report this comment

>The Lib Dem’s falling poll ratings is rapidly becoming the biggest political problem facing the coalition.

If only there were only one Lib Dem, and if only you had a basic grasp of English grammar, the world would be a happy, shiny place.

Chuck Unsworth

August 17th, 2010 2:58pm Report this comment

The Simon Hughes Effect.

Cjamesk

August 17th, 2010 3:05pm Report this comment

The Lib Dems "bounce" was just down to Clegg on the Leaders debate in my opinion, I know quite allot of people that voted Lib Dem without looking at there policies and basing it on his appearance.

TomTom

August 17th, 2010 3:24pm Report this comment

Voters are generally disillusioned. Ask Tory voters who voted in 2005 whether they are still voting in 2010 or 2015. It is not specific to LibDems, but to all mainstream parties - it just shows up mostly in flaky-allegiance parties like LibDems who only get votes so long as they don't gain power

TrevorsDen

August 17th, 2010 4:01pm Report this comment

As Firefly points out there is no point talking about this poll based on LDs at 8%; the true figure is 16%. With the copalition having a 54 to 38 lead.

Polls go through all sorts of manipulation - thats even if they are soundly based in the first place.

What LDs have to come to terms with is that they canot expect to be an easy repository of protest when they are actually in govt. They have to be realistic in recognising the genuine number of LD supporters out there, though if they can work out just what the LDs stand for they are better than me.

If this coalition represents a watershed it is that the LDs cannot continue to pretend to be two different parties in one.

Simon Hughes was quite robust in defending the coalition against an absurd and purple faced John Prescott on Newsnight.

Chris --- there is only one LD party and its rating is becoming a problem (least in the eyes of journalists)

Robert Simpson

August 17th, 2010 4:15pm Report this comment

Both Anthony Wells and Mike Smithson, both of whom know what they're talking about, say this poll is worthless. Personally I don't doubt the LDs are on a small vote share, but this poll does nothing to prove that in itself, since the methodology is so suspect.

Iconoclast

August 17th, 2010 4:27pm Report this comment

Can the co-alition last with that sort of reading from (of all places) the UK's version of Fox news?
Oh Dear... :-)

TrevorsDen

August 17th, 2010 4:28pm Report this comment

PS - as PB.com and UKPR point out --- this poll and the way it is presented is a disgrace and brings shame on SKY NEWS.

It is a classic case of the media manipulating the truth to create a story. In this case SKY themselves have had a hand in setting up this manipulation.

A disgrace, and it is the real story that the Spectator should be concentrating on.

whatawaste

August 17th, 2010 4:34pm Report this comment

The other surprise in this poll is the Other category which has done well at the expense of both Labour and Lib Dems. Is this a surge for the Greens, SNP or Plaid Cymru?

I suspect that the average Lib Dem voter needs time to adjust to having their party sharing power. Most voters for Labour or Tory have long got used to their parties reneging on manifesto commitments or policy U turns and accept these as a fact of life.

Cato

August 17th, 2010 4:49pm Report this comment

Here is one political bet I'd be willing to make--when voters next go to the polls for a general election, Nick Clegg will not be the leader of the Lib Dems.

davidk

August 17th, 2010 5:26pm Report this comment

Ha Ha Ha! I look forward to these yellow chancers being obliterated at the polls.

TrevorsDen

August 17th, 2010 6:15pm Report this comment

Despite my admonitions some people are still basing their comments on the unadjusted poll.

Removing don't knows it shows a Tory lead of 22%. 'pardon me?' did I hear you say?

Ipsos Mori have a poll where 58% agree with the following statement,“There is a real need to cut spending on public services in order to pay off the very high national debt we now have”.

If the LibDems see this through then I would have thought that their sitting MPs will benefit as would their candidates where they are second to labour in a marginal.

thomas

August 17th, 2010 6:16pm Report this comment

This is fantastic for the coalition - the conservative part that is. Conservatives don't want AV and they don't much like Lib Dems, so if their policy and their party take a pasting that leaves lots of lovely votes to see in a majority next time round.

Verity

August 17th, 2010 6:47pm Report this comment

Frank P - Yes, indeed. When I read your comment, there was no read to read down. You are correct.

Holly ......

August 17th, 2010 8:30pm Report this comment

Is there a general election in the next few weeks?
NO, so these polls are pointless really.

Boudicca

August 17th, 2010 10:26pm Report this comment

I reckon it's down to Vince Cable and the ridiculous Graduate Tax he is pushing.

Ali C

August 18th, 2010 11:23am Report this comment

Simon hughes. Frankly I'm surprised it's 8% given the stuff he's said recently

John David Barnett

August 18th, 2010 11:34am Report this comment

This particular poll has no credibility.

Ali C

August 18th, 2010 12:29pm Report this comment

John DB, no poll has no credibility, but neither does Simon Hughes.

End

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