David Miliband looks odds-on
David Blackburn 1:43pmCrack out the nibbles, David: looks like you’re going to win the Labour leadership. An extensive You Gov poll of Labour members and trade unionists puts David Miliband 8 points clear of his brother in the final run-off. This is the first statistical analysis that supports the general feeling in Westminster that Ed Miliband’s charge has calmed. Courtesy of John Rentoul, the results are diluted in this table.
UPDATE: Mike Smithson points out that the fieldwork for this poll was carried out between 27-29 July. So I stand corrected: Ed Miliband's charge has been on the wane for a month.
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Mike Smithson
August 21st, 2010 2:29pm Report this commentTHIS IS OLD NEWS. The poll was published in July.
You join Rentoul in making yourself look silly.
Mike Smithson
August 21st, 2010 2:32pm Report this commentPoliticalbetting had the story on July 29th.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/07/29/davidm-heading-for-victory-yougov/
Beer Moth
August 21st, 2010 2:44pm Report this commentDavid Miliband just looks odd.
TrevorsDen
August 21st, 2010 2:52pm Report this commentOh how desolate I feel - Ed Balls last!
But on the other hand, hee hee hee hee !
Will the winner be brave and tell Balls to just shove off? We will wait.
luke
August 21st, 2010 3:12pm Report this commentWell we all new the speccie didnt know much about Labour politics, but this is a new low.
This poll was released in JULY, shortly after the close of nominations.
It actually reflects the closing of the gap between the miliband brothers to 8 points. What's happened over the summer? Its probably closed further, but unless yougov do another poll we dont know.
Im afraid you and John Rentoul seem rather out of touch with this leadership election
Or its deliberatley misleading...
Senor Frizby
August 21st, 2010 4:03pm Report this commentHe'll never be PM - he's got a wonky face FACT!
Simon Too
August 21st, 2010 4:37pm Report this commentDavid Milliband to lead the Party Party? Such, er, fun!
Tarka the Rotter
August 21st, 2010 4:45pm Report this commentthought for a second that headline read
'David Miliband looks odd'
which of course he does...as does his brother...
RobM
August 21st, 2010 9:10pm Report this commentAgree with Luke, totally meaningless poll. The three largest unions have all since recommended Ed Miliband, yet that poll has arch-New Labourite DavidM as winning the union section. Is that the same Jon Rentoul who wrote a book about St Tony? Not a neutral or trustworthy source.
YouCannotBeSerious!
August 23rd, 2010 10:02am Report this commentSilly story, silly poll, silly update.
The assumption that the poll makes is that second preferences would be divided equally. So the D Miliband lead of 8 points after the first round becomes the final winning margin.
However, how second preferences are divided are crucial. Harriet Harman was behind all the way until the very last round in the Deputy Leadership election in 2007.
Any poll that doesn't measure, or even attempt to measure, 2nd preferences is therefore meaningless. And to use an old, meaningless poll to say that "Ed Miliband has been on the wane for a month" is just daft. No story here, move on.
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