IDS versus Osborne: there can only be one winner
David Blackburn 10:36am
The Quiet Man is an odd moniker for Iain Duncan Smith. There was nothing quiet about his
opposition to the Maastricht Treaty and he turned up the volume when he told the Tories to ‘unite or die’. Matthew d’Ancona observes that IDS is a noisy maverick again. IDS has threatened to resign
if his welfare reforms are obstructed. Principles are one thing and tactics another. As d’Ancona notes:
‘Such talk is fine if a minister means he will quit if he himself fails. But in IDS's case it has sounded more like a threat: if the leaders of the coalition do not give him what he wants, he will resign and bring the temple walls crashing down around him.’
D’Ancona thinks that IDS believes that he and his moral crusade are indispensible. They are, in the context of this coalition. With William Hague transformed into a quasi-Cameroon and Liam Fox ostracised, IDS is the Tory right’s representative in government – Defender of the Faith as it were. Equally, Cameron cannot do without him. IDS’ reforms are a rood screen keeping Cameron’s eccentric parishioners from the hallowed chancel; they also give the government an impetus beyond deficit reduction. Remove IDS and the coalition’s two dimensional balance is disturbed.
Though it would be weakened politically, the government could withstand IDS’ resignation. However, it will collapse if spending cuts are stunted. George Osborne is powerful even by the standard of chancellors; and he is determined, so at the very least he will trump IDS. The Quiet Man will have to accept Osborne’s compromise, pray his sums are exact and start living up to his name.
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strapworld
August 24th, 2010 11:07am Report this commentWell, waiting in the wings is, of course, the Liberal Democrat who is wedded to major public service cuts, David Laws. A man as ruthless and as capable as George Osborne.
Personally I would never allow a man who threatens to resign to hold such a position in any government. In the cabinet one has to be a team player. It is obvious, to me, that IDS believes his is the only way forward. The only way to deal with the problem of welfare. It cannot be that simple.
It is time that Cameron got IDS and his team around the table and read the riot act!
Yes his idea's appear to be sound but so did many other idea's throughout history which went pear shape when tried.
Perhaps he should agree to highlighting the worst 'offender' in welfare payments and focusing on that. If that works then roll it out for all. A step by step approach, surely, is a far better one- and a safer one- than IDS's dream of the nuclear approach.
That said. I think IDS should be sacked.
Dave B
August 24th, 2010 11:17am Report this commentOn the Burning Our Money blog, Mike Denham points out that IDS can have his cake and eat it too, if he redefines the poverty line to 50% of median income, as suggested by the TPA.
"If we did that, IDS would have plenty of cash to work with. On our estimates, setting the poverty line at 50% rather than 60% saves £20-30bn pa just on the welfare paid to working age households (ie leaving pensioner welfare untouched)."
old fogey
August 24th, 2010 11:24am Report this commentTo judge from recent photos, William Hague has turned into rather more than a Cameroonian. Oh dear, even if its all perfectly inocent, he still looks a complete ,well, embarrasment.
Bryan Odell
August 24th, 2010 12:05pm Report this commentYour summation is absolutely correct.IDS and his reforms ARE indispensible to Tory party within this coalition.
The public , I believe , have patiently accepted the loss , and the watering down of a huge list of Tory policies for which they voted.
The tories HAVE to back IDS , or expect REAL trouble from the public.
Any kind of connotation with Frank Fields demise through actually "Thinking the Unthinkable" , will set this government back in the most serious and unrecoverable way.
Victor Southern
August 24th, 2010 12:06pm Report this commentGeorge Osborne understands, and will require, that not only must we cut the benefits bill but also that we must redistribute the balance to more accurately reflect need.
The benefits bill eats up 40% of total government income. If cuts cannot be achieved there then all others are almost meaningless since this is the elephant in the room.
The exercise will be tough but this government was installed to be tough after 13 years of financial incontinence. If IDS cannot take the tough and correct decisions and make them work then he is wring for the job.
IDS must cut his coat to fit the cloth that is available. It is no longer possible for the state to borrow money each year to pay for current expenditure.
TrevorsDen
August 24th, 2010 12:29pm Report this commentOh dear - man in shirtsleeves and sunglasses in the summer and old fogy starts having palpitations. Just leave all that to the fat shite Guido and his crew...
Meanwhile back in the real world I cannot help thinking the young Mr Blackburn like a lot of his juvenile colleagues ois struggling to find anything to say - he is reduced to repeating what others are repeating.
The what of course being speculation. To be fair the loony right have form in coming up with pointless resignations. Davis having set a particularly poor example.
The point is the Conservatives DO want to reform benefits. Everyone is on the side of that and IDS. Perhaps Strapworld should ask a question before, amazingly, he calls for the sacking of a right wing tory; 'Where is the crisis'?
Ian Stewart
August 24th, 2010 1:19pm Report this commentThis is all meaningless speculation, and spin.
What is more important are the shared aims of IDS and Osbourne. Have heard it said that IDS wants to sack at least one quarter of his Department. Will this really help?
strapworld
August 24th, 2010 1:30pm Report this commentUnlike you, dear TrevorsDen, I do not believe that everything in the garden is wonderful. Nor that, surprisingly, fairies live at the bottom of the garden. They obviously are living within the tory party though!
Someone is briefing, someone is letting this out to the press. I do not believe everything I read, but this story has been printed so many times-without any denial- it must have the basis of truth. Therefore my belief is that a 'team' cannot have a loose cannon, A prima donna, a loner a man on a crusade. That is my view. That may not go along with your rose tinted view TD but that is why opinions differ!
Dave B
August 24th, 2010 2:10pm Report this comment@Ian Stewart
Alan Milburn advocated a 25% reduction in the Civil Service headcount back in 2008.
normanc
August 24th, 2010 2:14pm Report this commentI'd describe myself as a 'right-wing Tory' and if IDS had to go over this I wouldn't bat an eyelid.
He may be portrayed by the media as the right-wing lynchpin holding us swivel eyed little Englanders together but he's asking for more money when 'there is no money'. How is that right-wing? Yes, reform is necessary but spending more money definitely is not.
Make unpopular decisions and ruthlessly cut other areas if you want to spend more on pet projects. Otherwise crawl back into your hole.
Ian Stewart
August 24th, 2010 3:02pm Report this commentIsn't Alan Milburn in the Coalition? Was just asking if this will help anything or anybody?
IDS is a man who believes in what he is doing, I just do not believe that he is doing the right thing here.
We could save an awful lot of money by ending the system of farming out government jobs to companies like Capita, who never seem to be able to come in on time or on budget, yet continue to win contracts. The same goes for PWC, Deloitte, etc, not to mention the often meaningless and useless consultants brought into local government by exec officers. But not to worry, the Audit Commission will stop that - oops...
Dave B
August 24th, 2010 4:01pm Report this comment@Ian Stewart
You're suggesting that the Civil Service's bad record in purchasing, is an argument for giving them a larger role in service delivery?
Surely it would make more sense to try to improve their purchasing skills.
Noa Zrk
August 24th, 2010 10:57pm Report this comment"Today’s reports do not mention the legal aid budget - an obvious candidate for trimming but one that is politically difficult".
Why? It's a form of social benefit. Where crime pays for the lawyers and criminals at the expense of honest citizens.
So, let every citizen have the right to one criminal trial supported by legal aid. After that, they should pay for their own legal defence.
Successful criminals won't be affected, unsuccessful ones will naturally go out of business.
Oh and outsource prison services. Somalia seems a reasonable option.
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