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Thursday, 9th September 2010

How Humphrys got it wrong

James Forsyth 4:20pm

The 8.10 Today programme slot this morning went to Nick Clegg. The programme wanted to discuss with the deputy PM the BBC’s finding that those areas most dependent on the state would be hit hardest by the coming cuts, for some reason this statement of the obvious is regarded as news. But John Humphrys, in his haste to interrupt the deputy PM, made some statements deserving of further scrutiny.
 
First, Humphrys suggested that the cuts will take place before Christmas. They won’t. Unlike the cuts announced in the immediate aftermath of the election, these are not in-year cuts.
 
Next, Humphrys claimed that the economy is at ‘stall-speed.’ But growth in the second quarter was 1.2 percent, perfectly respectable and the fastest quarterly growth rate that we’ve seen in more than eight years.
 
But beyond these quibbles there’s a more fundamental problem with the assumption underlying Humphrys’ questions. The experience of the US shows that fiscal stimulus just isn’t working at the moment. A stimulus of six percent of GDP has, by the Congressional Budget Office’s own estimate, only succeeded in reducing unemployment by 0.7 to 1.8 percent. Why? Because when countries are running deficits as big as the US and British ones, both of which are over 11 percent of GDP, further stimulus serves to depress confidence. Taxpayers and businesses know that the result of this stimulus will either be higher rates of tax or inflation. Contrary to the neo-Keynesian conventional wisdom, austerity is actually the best form of stimulus in the current circumstance.
 
However, my favourite moment of the interview was when Clegg declared that the coalition must ensure that growth returns to "our great northern cities… and Middlesbrough." 

Filed under: Coalition (1871 more articles) , Conservatives (2074 more articles) , Growth (160 more articles) , Liberal Democrats (1043 more articles) , Nick Clegg (637 more articles) , Public finances (704 more articles) , Spending cuts (600 more articles) , Today programme (23 more articles) , UK politics (4908 more articles)

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David Lindsay

September 9th, 2010 4:57pm Report this comment

Hartlepool, Redcar and Middlesbrough are replete with bankers, and thus richly deserving of this punishment.

The Conservative Party used to win seats on Teesside, although I doubt that it even knows that now. If it still did and could win them, then it would now have an overall majority. As it is, it will never have one again. But it doesn't care.

This is not the first time, of course. What has the North East ever done to them, that they hate us quite so much?

The Preston Park Panther

September 9th, 2010 5:07pm Report this comment

Middlesborough? Wait till they take a look at Hartlepool!

London Calling

September 9th, 2010 5:12pm Report this comment

Also there’s no comfort in being informed that cuts will be spread over five years, or that the Government is handing power back to communities, whatever that means considering communities will have nothing to manoeuvre with and the word power will be appear hollow.

The Angel of the North probably has a better view of the economic north south divide than Westminster, unless its melted down for scrap that is…

The public whilst supportive of the need for cuts are starting to question where cuts are made and the logic of cutting community lifelines which are depended upon for survival, the coalition had better tread very carefully…

Verity

September 9th, 2010 5:16pm Report this comment

"that those areas most dependent on the state would be hit hardest by the coming cuts ...".

The answer to this statement is, "So what?"

The area that would be most affected by no cuts would be the employed, contributing tax payer.

Alex

September 9th, 2010 5:19pm Report this comment

John Humphrey's was appalling today. John Humphrey interrupted constantly and talked over Mr Glegg.

Besides the errors highlighted in the above article, Humphreys acted liked an amateur. Perhaps he knews to go through retraining or retire.

Walsingham's Ghost

September 9th, 2010 5:20pm Report this comment

I fear it is time for poor old Mr. Humphrys to either be put out to grass or take-up his long coveted post of Head of Communications for the new Leader of the Labour Party (or if you prefer, David Miliband).

With any luck, he will take that other awful example of hopelessly biased and unbalanced journalism, James Naughtie, with him.

WG

Chuck Unsworth

September 9th, 2010 5:21pm Report this comment

These Great Northern Cities have been sucking on the Taxpayers' teats for too long. I doubt there's the will to change now. Clearly if government spending of our money is going to be reduced then those areas with greatest taxpayer subsidy will suffer most. That's hardly rocket science. What is interesting is that despite vast sums being channeled into these regions for a decade and more there's been almost no increase in private sector (and non-dependent) employment. Why?

As to Humphrys, well he's gone completely native...

Walsingham's Ghost

September 9th, 2010 5:23pm Report this comment

@ David Lindsay

"What has the North East ever done to them, that they hate us quite so much?"

Er, voted Labour for the last two decades?...

Norman Dee

September 9th, 2010 5:33pm Report this comment

it's always "HATE" when the left wing talk isn't it ?. You can't "disagree", or "question the accuracy", or "be in some doubt about" you hate with a passion that comes from an underlying sense that only this kind of passion can hide the doubt that you have in your own beliefs. After all what you advocate has been seen to fail in almost every corner of the world, so you put your disappointment into reaction.

Holly ......

September 9th, 2010 5:33pm Report this comment

Firstly we should get a few things clear.
1.During the last decade what did the Labour
government do to encourage the tax,profit &
job creating private sector? Or improve the life chances for those at the bottom?
Giving welfare benefits does NOT help social
mobility.
2. The areas that will be 'hardest hit',due to the 'savage cuts'are the ones stuffed to the rafters with public sector workers.
3.Why are the Labour run areas either stuffed with public sector workers or long term benefit claimants,both drain the country of growth/future private investment,
because of the red tape/high taxes.
5.When will anyone spell out exactly what the Labour government did during their time in government to cushion the effect of this ridiculous mess,now,convieniently for them,
being blamed on the Tory cutting of Quangoes
/quangocrats,uncosted projects etc.
The BBC,Labour bods and the'experts can and will say what they like,but they should also
remember this,when things begin to turn around,and they will,the Coalition WILL be
taking the credit from the voter,for standing up to the 'established' spend & bullship methods encrusted by the previous rabble.
Up to now I don't see anything standing in the way of this and the Coalition are a more
formidible force than Labour could ever think of....David Cameron had a fine mentor and role model by all accounts....his father
I believe a little bit of him rubbed off onto his son.
Going on the last two years our PM has never
let himself,his family or the party he leads
down,regardless of what life has thrown his way.

Vulture

September 9th, 2010 5:38pm Report this comment

Humphreys' entire career deserves 'scrutiny'. He's a dyed in the wool socialist as only an owner of multiple properties like him and Polly Toynbee can be.

As for this morning's Today lead story, it was a masterpiece of the No Shit Sherlock variety - the north is poorer and more benefit-dependent than the south, therefore the north will be harder hit by the cuts.

The same 'story' could have been broadcast in 1963, 1933, and indeed in 1433.

The only thing to do to remove the BBC's eternal leftist bias is to cut the license fee.

Peter From Maidstone

September 9th, 2010 5:42pm Report this comment

Maybe its the cult of the victim? What has the North East ever done that it deserves more of our money than anywhere else?

ROJ

September 9th, 2010 5:48pm Report this comment

Oh hold the front page: BBC's Humphrys conducts ill-informed argumentative interview.

Maggie

September 9th, 2010 5:48pm Report this comment

I don't listen to the Today programme any more.

ollie

September 9th, 2010 6:05pm Report this comment

David, do you think it is within the realms of sanity to prop up an entire region of this country with jobs that do not produce one penny of wealth? The north east economy is a classic example of client state entrenchment.

Labour think they're owed a living by everyone else but themselves.

tb

September 9th, 2010 6:17pm Report this comment

David Lindsay, maybe if you stopped thinking that everybody in an area of the country thinks the same as you would be a good start.

Maybe you should then look at how much money 'you' take from the state, if you don't want to think of yourself as an individual that is.

But basically it appears 'you' want to have less severe cuts at the expense of the rest of the country.

But feel free to vote for a party that 'you' can't afford and whinge when the bill comes in.

frosty the polar bear

September 9th, 2010 6:45pm Report this comment

Perhaps if during the past 13 years in office, Labour had actually re-invigorated these northern cities, which co-incidentally return almost exclusively Labour MP's, as opposed to just creating public service jobs, of dubious worth. These self-same cities would be well placed to deal with any public spending cuts.
I suspect ceasing the practise of the tax-payer paying the salaries of thousands of full time union officials, rather than their costs being borne by those they work for, the Unions, might be a popular place to begin enacting said cuts?

Frank Sutton

September 9th, 2010 6:52pm Report this comment

Curious omission in the Today piece - they kept mentioning that in Middlesborough a huge percentage of jobs is in the public sector, but never actually gave a hint as to what these jobs are.
Very slack reporting seems to be another charge to be leveled at the BBC

Woody

September 9th, 2010 7:09pm Report this comment

It's time politicians stopped 'attending' the 8.10am slot and giving it credence. Radio4's Today programme has had it day and it ended when Labour 'lost' the election.

Swissy J

September 9th, 2010 7:29pm Report this comment

I listened to the Radio 4 interview with Nick Clegg. Humphreys was crude and simplistic, bullying, constantly interrupting and putting forward blatantly Nu-Labour ideas.
Nick Clegg is a new type of politican, in that when you ask him a question, he tries to answer it. And his answers can be quite complicated - well, so are the questions !
But all Radio 4 seems to want are trite soundbites, similar to their trite soundbite questions.
The Coalition seem to be trying to address real issues, not just sending out sound-bite media nonsense.
Why do we - the licence-fee payers - have to suffer this left-wing bias on the mainstream news broadcast ?
PS : I note the other mainstream stories were about budgie killers, and WAG aspirations. Why does the Beeb consider their news management is any more significant than that of News International ?

Oedipus Rex

September 9th, 2010 7:30pm Report this comment

Peter From Maidstone: "Maybe its the cult of the victim? What has the North East ever done..."

Er..ship building (and all its attendant industries), coal mining that powered the nation, Vickers arms manufacture and so on.

What the f'k has Maidstone ever done for us?

strapworld

September 9th, 2010 7:57pm Report this comment

David Lindsay "The Conservative Party used to win seats on Teesside" Well Middlesbrough East was always Labour and Middlesbrough West Conservative.

Being a Boro educated lad I do not agree with your rather sweeping statement that no conservative will be elected again. I do not believe the good people of Middlesbrough will want Labour politicians when the truth dawns on them.

How is the Conservative Club in Boro? Loved having a pint of Samson there!

CityBoy

September 9th, 2010 8:21pm Report this comment

What the f'k has Maidstone ever done for us?

Done their duty and voted Conservative.

Beer Moth

September 9th, 2010 8:49pm Report this comment

"Be friends, you English fools, be friends: we have
[French] quarrels enow, if you could tell how to reckon."

Chuck Unsworth

September 9th, 2010 9:16pm Report this comment

@ Oedipus Rex

"Er..ship building (and all its attendant industries), coal mining that powered the nation, Vickers arms manufacture and so on."

Much demand for these industries now? If these industries had not priced themselves out of business then maybe you'd have a point. If they had diversified into other industries maybe you'd have a point. But the Luddites won - and now they complain.

The South East was not always stuffed with bankers - indeed it is not even today. What Maidstone - and most of the South East has done (and even now is doing) - for you is to subsidise you to the hilt - for a decade and more - by giving you vast amounts of Public Employment. It's about time you stood on your own two feet. Where has the vast deluge of taxpayers' cash poured into your region gone? What local investments have there been? Where are your entrepreneurs, and what have they done for you?

Arthur Deck

September 9th, 2010 9:21pm Report this comment

I do wish that people wouldn't assume that a mere rise in GDP is the same thing as "growth". 'Economic stimulus' pumps a surge of money into the economy relatively indiscriminately and it is impossible *not* to get a rise in GDP. This is not the same thing as "growth", if the word is meant to imply self-sustaining wealth creation as I think most casual readers assume it does.

Oedipus Rex

September 9th, 2010 10:20pm Report this comment

Oh the presumptiousness of the Tory mentality!
I am a Londoner born and bred. Having a rather bigger idea of nation, when I say 'us' I mean all of us, north and south.

I've also been self-employed most of my life - although I do some P/T work now in the Public Sector these last few years.

As for 'City Boy' - just fallen legless into a cab after a night and a quick J Arthur at Browns perhaps?

Occasional Ostrich

September 9th, 2010 10:23pm Report this comment

I do have sympathy with "Today's" producer and its presenters wishing to avoid the 08:10 interview being used as a party political broadcast by either the Government or the Opposition. But I certainly do not wish it to become a Party Political Broadcast for the "Humphrys" party either. Mr. Humphrys' interruptions and persistent speaking over the interviewee rendered the interview all but unintelligible (although that might just have been deliberate?)
Mr. Humphrys should review the style of questioning he uses for "Mastermind" and consider introducing it to his "Today" interviews.

Go on, John, try it. It'll work out fine.
After all, it often seems as if it's how you treat Labour interviewees.)

ian boyd

September 9th, 2010 11:13pm Report this comment

Not sure what the outrage is about.
John Humphreys gets all ornery. But he asked I thought a good question when he queried government spending on re-alignment for over-dependence on public sector as being seemingly disjunct from cuts to the very same - good old public sector departmental segregation. Clegg was good though, especially his response to Humphrey's assertion of Today research findings; just the right amount of condescension in NC's reply that it had uncovered no more than another expression of the fact that there is in fact a north-south divide. As someone else has said, no shit, Sherlock.

Dimoto

September 9th, 2010 11:22pm Report this comment

Scotland has been turned from a nation of entrepreneurs, engineers and bankers, into a bunch of dependents with rock-bottom self-esteem.

Under 13 years of Labour, the north-east, north-west and south Yorkshire have caught the contagion, which is also spreading into the east midlands.

A smaller and smaller sector of the population has to fund the whole country.
Just how much longer can this trend continue ?

When we are down to just London and the south-east paying their way, and the rest living mainly on subsidy and stubbornly voting in Labour governments, we will be able to start asking China and Brazil for aid as one of a group of newly emerging third world undeveloping countries.

This coalition may be the final chance to stop the rot, (but large numbers of the population still think their "entitlements" are sacred and untouchable).

Great outlook folks !!

David Charles

September 10th, 2010 6:20am Report this comment

Surely the Preston Park Panther, of all animals, should know it's "Middlesbrough" not "Middlesborough". So should others.

And the Tories did indeed win a Teesside seat - Stockton South - in 2010, as did the Lib Dems (Redcar).

Does anybody here read, check or think before posting?

Major Plonquer 1

September 10th, 2010 6:21am Report this comment

I used to believe the people of the North voted Labour because they were poor, dumb, stupid, drab and aweful. Now I know better. No.

The people of the North are poor, dumb, stupid, drab and aweful BECAUSE they vote for Labour.

The Maksed Marvel

September 10th, 2010 6:35am Report this comment

ollie and tb are asking David Lindsay about sanity and reason, bless. Why bother with someone who swallows everything the BBC and Bob Crowe feed him? He thinks that all banks are evil and all banks got bailed out at the taxpayers' expense. It would be cute if it weren't so dangerous.

GeoffM

September 10th, 2010 6:57am Report this comment

Funny how the crappiest parts of the UK are Labour strongholds.

With decades of Labour MP's and Labour Local Government you could be forgiven for thinking that they would have done something about it by now.

Or could it be that Labour NEEDS these areas to remain depressed so as to have a disaffected and benefit dependent population as their core vote?

Add to that mass immigration, mass brainwashing through the education system and sucking up to minorities of all kinds and you can see why Labours policies and programmes are disastrous to the wealth, security and cohesion of the UK.

Paul Hawkins

September 10th, 2010 7:06am Report this comment

David Lindsay -so you therefore accept the principle that someone working on the minimum wage should pay higher taxes to fund someone who chooses to be unemployed?

The Soviet Union's economic model faild sometime ago. Perhaps you had not noticed?

Fergus Pickering

September 10th, 2010 7:33am Report this comment

That stuff about shipbuilding emphasises the leftie mindset. It is full of nostalgia for a past populated by singing miners, dancing shipbuilders and Gracie Fields. And Yes, I know Gracie Fields didn't come from the North East. What is the North East like NOW and what can be done to make it better? And don't just say give them more freebies. That won't do, will it? Well, will it? The same thing is true IN SPADES of Scotland. I grew up there and I am ashamed of the dead-and-buried, whingeing, whittering place it has become. Maidstone is better, I tell you, much better. Viva Maidstone!

Roger Davies

September 10th, 2010 7:48am Report this comment

People are motivated by self interest, those in the south to protect their net disposables and in the north their welfare cheques. Crude enough. But it is the responsibility of Gov. to fashion the economy such that real jobs will be created, those that live in these black spots have seen little evidence, in the last few decades, that this is likely to come about. Castigating northern Labour voters is silly, however, such votes are equally so. We need to focus on the motivators of real employment and start sweeping the red-tape, minimum wage and employment taxation out of the way. Jobs, jobs and more real jobs is what we need.
As for that Humphreys chappy, well he is the main reason that I no longer listen to Today.

Woody

September 10th, 2010 8:17am Report this comment

Major Plonquer 1

I live in the North and I may be poor but I do NOT VOTE LABOUR.

At least I can spell!

Maggie

September 10th, 2010 10:31am Report this comment

Labour have spent huge sums of money in the North East but they've mostly spent it on bling. Ludicrous mega statues like Anish Kapoor's 360ft long and 165ft tall monstrosity at Hartlepool and grandiose public buildings that made fortunes for the people who built them and/or owned the land they were built on.

AF

September 10th, 2010 10:31am Report this comment

It must be a nightmare for business to employ decent staff in these areas with high public sector employment.

toni

September 10th, 2010 11:49am Report this comment

Amusing to read comments like this – “Mr. Humphrys’ interruptions and persistent speaking over the interviewee rendered the interview all but unintelligible (although that might just have been deliberate?)”

Feel free to point me in the direction of the complaints made against him from the CH audience during the last thirteen years as he barracked, over talked and sneered his way through the Labour interviews.
My recollection is that his performances were greatly relished by the likes of commenter’s here, and he was considered astute and incisive...then.

Chuck Unsworth

September 10th, 2010 12:06pm Report this comment

@ toni

Your 'recollection', eh? Care to name and shame, then?

Chuck Unsworth

September 10th, 2010 12:08pm Report this comment

@ Oedipus Rex

'Us'? Include me out. You don't speak on my behalf.

alexsandr

September 10th, 2010 12:09pm Report this comment

Maggie September 10th, 2010 10:31am

remember poulson and t dan smith?

Lord Boyders

September 10th, 2010 1:34pm Report this comment

I think Humphrys is getting old. He keep wittering on, making bad jokes even interupting his own colleagues, he's losing the plot.

Completely agree that his interview style is useless, I don't want his opinions, I want to hear what his interviewees say and make my own judgement. So often you know what they are trying to say but they are not allowed to make the point.

Humphrys is the worst and he should retire, it would free up the Today programme.

Peter Jackson

September 10th, 2010 1:48pm Report this comment

I don't think Middlesbrough is a city is it

lescam

September 10th, 2010 1:48pm Report this comment

@ Woody

"Major Plonquer 1

I live in the North and I may be poor but I do NOT VOTE LABOUR.
At least I can spell!"

Hear, hear, Woody. Well said.
I too live in the North, always have done. I am neither poor, nor dumb nor stupid. Have NEVER EVER voted Labour, never will. No-one I know has ever voted Labour.
The area where I live is pleasant, green and leafy, with large detached houses and plenty of trees. Most of my family have university degrees, and I mean university, not tarted-up polytechnics. We read good books, intelligent papers and go to the opera and theatre occasionally. And I can also spell "awful" correctly.

Why do certain bigoted, snobbish Southerners automatically equate a Northern accent with idiocy and ignorance?

Peter Jackson

September 10th, 2010 4:37pm Report this comment

@Major Plonquer
And the people of the South are effete, decadent, materialistic, cold, humourless and largely foreign.

Occasional Ostrich

September 10th, 2010 4:58pm Report this comment

@toni

Don't you think that Labour interviewees and their high command are quite capable of standing up for themselves? Indeed, they would probably find support from CH unwelcome!

Chuck Unsworth

September 10th, 2010 8:32pm Report this comment

@ lescam

"Why do certain bigoted, snobbish Southerners automatically equate a Northern accent with idiocy and ignorance?"

Maybe their experiences of Northerners have shaped their opinions. 'Bigoted', eh?

Stuart Seacole Smith

September 14th, 2010 10:18am Report this comment

Fully agree with the crtiticisms of Humphreys/ the Today programme interviewing style. God knows why I still listen to it, it's so frustrating...

The problematic faux hard-nosed BBC interview culture even spead some years ago to Rob Bonnet's largely inconsequential sports interviews. It would be funny if it wasn't so pathetic.

License fee: snip snip snippety snip.

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