A worrying – but not disastrous – poll for the government

AndyLeeds

One is not surprised. The BBC's anti-coalition and anti any cuts whatsoever has been hysterical for 2 months now. I agree that the coalition needs to sell the problem better and that means strong attacks on Labour and former ministers.

SUSAN HILL

People just have not understood the dire situation we are in and the worse one we would be in if the medicine was not unpleasant.It makes me wish that the government threw up its hands and let 'nature take its course', did as everyone seems to want, not make savage cuts - and then see how people like it when the IMF has to be brought in. The world seems to be turning on, life is not unpleasant for many - so they just can't see what the problem is. The coalition has not spelled out the stark alternatives. They really must. At the moment, Balls and Crow, God help us, are getting their message across.But then, thugs and bullies always do.

Widmerpool

The Coaltion needs to get its message across loud and clear before the poltically motivated strikes etc grab the headlines.
As a first step if the BBC's strike does happen at the same time as Dave's speech why does the Govt not make the BBC carry either the Sky or ITV news feeds?

Braveheart

"as it stands, this poll is not a sign of rank unpopularity. "

But they haven't done anything yet....

davidk

"...as it stands, this poll is not a sign of rank unpopularity."

...because the new government haven't carried out any policy worth mentioning yet!!

It continues to amuse me this fevered approach to every new poll. The reality is that once the cuts get going you can expect poll performance for both Tories and Limps to crater. That's what happens when you annoy lots of people all at once.

Alan Edwards

Is this another of these same Polls that prediceted the Lib Dems were going to get a landslide at the election. These polls are always heavily influenced by popular opinion rather than real voting and are completely meaningless. They are simply paid for new story generators which are bereft of reality. They have as much credibility as a Facebook group for a serial killer.

Simon

It's the Tories own fault for not dealing with the BBC...they are setting the anti-cuts agenda as they do on any other leftie issue they get behind

Vulture

Unless the Coalition is prepared to weather public sector hatred of Poll Tax dimensions, strikes, street riots, and the constant drumroll of the BBC's pro-Liebore agenda, it will get nowhere and we will be in for a re-run of Heath's 1970-74 car crash.

If, however, against my expectations, Dave turns out to be a Thatcher rather than a Heath, then hang on to your hats for a rough ride. They ain't seen nothing yet.

strapworld

Have I missed something? Is a general election looming? For goodness sake. Government slumps in polls- when was it ever different. Only when we had that greatest ever prime minister, tony bliar,did the honeymoon period last eight years. Why? Because he conned everyone by doing everything behind people's backs.

This is the time to get behind the government. To show the Labour Party,the trades Unions and the BBC that they are yesterday's people. Time for a revolution.

Bring back all the troops in Germany and Cyprus and prepare them to run the country, should the call for a general strike be followed by people.

Wouldn't it be wonderful if Cameron adopted the President Reagan approach and promised to sack any and all public service workers who went on strike! Also if he announced that he was ending, with immediate effect, ALL public service grants, loans to Unions and time off for union affairs for public service workers.

RKing

Isn't this normal after an election?

Rather surprised that you are giving it space or did Fraser tell you to write the "story".

Pot Head

I think you'll find Boris is in the 75% too.

Liberty

This happened after every Labour government. Labour brings us to near bankruptcy by over blowing the public sector and over taxing and the Tories have to cut spending and hold taxes. Then Labour attacks the Tories spending cuts and says that the hole could be filled by more taxes on the rich. The message carries because for most people, if they get poorer they blame the government and give the alternative government a go - if there is a sensible alternative.

So, the Tories now have to drain the swamps from which emerge Labour support; the unions, public sector, teaching, academia and the BBC. Churchill/Eden/McMillan failed, Thatcher/Major failed but Cameron better not fail because he could be out in 2015 unless he succeeds. The swamp does not have to be entirely drained in five years, just enough to stop Labour but in ten years the job must be complete because by then Labour will be credible and the Tories will be boring and maybe having their own troubles.

Cuffleyburgers

Strapworld for PM!

Noa

"..Wouldn't it be wonderful if Cameron adopted the President Reagan approach and promised to sack any and all public service workers who went on strike! Also if he announced that he was ending, with immediate effect, ALL public service grants, loans to Unions and time off for union affairs for public service workers..."

It would Strpworld.

Unfortunately its npre-conditions is possession of a spine, together with and indomitable will. Characteristics which notable by their absence in the Coservative leadership.

wycombewanderer

Any striking workers should have their retirement date, set back, by the number of days they have not contributed.

JR

Susan - I disagree. I've changed my mind since May and would favour a slower deficit reduction programme. Nothing in the debt markets is suggesting the UK is approaching a debt crisis - some of that may be to do with the credibility of the Coalition to reduce debt however I think the risk itself has receeded across western countries. The evidence is that their is substantial appetite for UK Government debt. The "IMF will be called in" is a bit of a joke.

I've become more worried about reduced world demand and a sudden massive UK shock linked to the reduction of public spending will spook consumer confidence, oblitrate the construction sector, and worsen economic prospects. I also think the push to derive savings from the AME spend (e.g. benefit spending) will substantially reduce demand in the service sector which will have difficult consequences.

I actually fear and Irish situation where a massive cut in public spending (including benefit cuts) via lower growth and tax take actually worsened their credit rating.

I'd support an easing of spending cuts in the economic circumstances.

John Bracewell

Well said, Susan Hill and Strapworld.

ollie

If anyone lives in the Central News area, they will know how utterly relentless the BBC has been splashing "cuts" all over their evening program. I've never see such blatant bias and propoganda - seriously.

Are people so willing and ready to forget all the damage Labour did in such a short space of time? I don't think so.

libertarian

The coalition doesn't have to expend energy explaining this in minute detail. Just tell people that we can spend more of taxpayers money by putting the base rate of tax up to 50% and see what that does to the poll rating

libertarian

@JR

Utter drivel

Senor Frizby

not surprising considering the amount of air time the Labour party and unions are getting to air their objections. They created it and would do it again. The Lib Dems will panic first.

It would be good to hear more about job creation and wealth generation - balance the fear of the austere with benefits of non-socialist policy.

Nicholas

It's depressing that after 13 years of socialist chicanery the country is still so much in the grip of the Left. As predicted the coalition may be in government but they have let New Labour's fifth column survive. The fifth column don't like the result of the election so now they will use every weapon in their armoury to overturn it and by any means fair or foul - but mostly foul. Cynical communists from the last century rabble rouse the Left and an army of useful fools who have grown up believing government should wipe their bottoms for them. The language of the Left is unchallenged. By concentrating wholly on the economy and not on disempowering these enemies and skewering their ideology the coalition are running a grave risk.

I see that even the politicised police have chipped in today, warning that cutting their numbers in the face of public disorder and civil disobedience will lead to disaster.

As ever the Lies of the Left are making the running.

Walsingham's Ghost

"Wouldn't it be wonderful if Cameron adopted the President Reagan approach and promised to sack any and all public service workers who went on strike!"

Oh, if only - but DC lacks the cojones to drive that one forward.

As for the Times/Populus Poll, it was probably conducted by standing in the middle of the Socialist Republic of Islington and prefacing the questions with the line 'Now before we start, are you a Labour Supporter?'

I gave up expecting unbiased polling from The Times the day it adopted a tabloid format - in every sense...

WG

Charlie

Sometimes I think we still have the last lot in No.10 as they seem to worry more about their popularity than their principles.

When you wean a junkie of their vice, no-one expects gratitude or even acceptance while going through the inevitable cold turkey, so why would any of the unions or their friends be expected to behave rationally when being threatened with the same? They didn't even behave rationally during the the times of plenty!

The government has 5 years to get through the worse of the withdrawal symptoms and allow people to start feeling the benefits of being free from the burden of a nanny state, otherwise the country will fall off the wagon again.

As for the BBC, the conveniently planned strikes is a bit of an own goal as it highlights both their bias and greed in expecting to be isolated from the real world. On the other hand with the number one lefty-squawk box running on reduced power during the conference, it can only have a positive consequence on the bias in the reporting.

TrevorsDen

In other words this poll is useless. How are the different results compatible? Push the question - Force the answer.

Wake up JR - the deficit reduction programme is slow enough as it is. For every £ not cut - that adds to the interest repayment costs which takes money from government programmes. We are heading towards a national debt of £1.4 trillion as it is. And you want MORE?

Mr Strap - nice words but arresting legal strikers is sheer fascism. Stop trying to be clever - you only end up looking stupid. Illegal strikes would end up with unions funds being fined. These 'strikes' will be a damp squib since the rhetoric is based on a false prospectus.

michael

Nothing Like a large dollop of union driven inconvenience to move polls.

JR

TrevorDan - Yes I think the debt repayment cost is an acceptable cost for increased borrowing if prevents a reduction in growth, and a collapse in tax take (and subsequent further explosion in the deficit). Ultimately if the latter scenario happens cutting spending further won't dent the deficit created. It's a balanced judgement and is not to say I don't envisage a smaller state - however the economic arguments and current data (on confidence and private sector investment/borrowing) stack up for easing deficit reduction targets.

strapworld

TrevorsDen. I take it you will not support those that want me for Prime Minister!

Braveheart

Well said JR

GB = Greece was always a lie.

And the last two quarters have been good for our economy thanks to the actions taken by the Labour government.

The danger is that this wil not be continued and we will get slow/no growth caused by the lack of an "engine" to drive growth, e.g.h as public spending.

DC/GO want the engine to be exports, but there's no sign of that happening.

alan campbell

Sounds familiar. So, rather like the last government, it all comes down to not getting the message across properly, does it? Rubbish. The Phoney War is over and ordinary people are becoming aware of what's about to be unleashed on them in the name of ideology.

alan campbell

A lot of BBC hate in here. Yeah, we should send in the troops to take over Broadcasting House, shouldn't we? How about having a nightly broadcast from John Redwood; get people to wear brown shirts; special camps for Muslims, that kind of thing?
That's how daft you all sound. Nutters.

SUSAN HILL

JR.I know it's a point of view but what about our appalling level of debt ? When Canada was in such dire straits they cut fast and far and came out of it quickly. But the fact is neither you nor I nor anyone else can see into the future and we can't be sure which approach would work best without trying both at once - which I don`t think is possible ! But I agree it's a bit of a knife-edge. Not helped by the BBC of course.

sandy

The Coalition have only themselves to blame.

There are a great many people who just do not understand what "The Deficit" actually is.

They say, "Why should we have to suffer to pay off this deficit when the bankers,who caused it by being bailed out,are still enjoying big bonuses?We are paying for their mistakes."

The Coalition have simply not done enough to explain ,in simple terms which everyone can understand,the difference between "The Deficit" and "The Debt" and how failing to do something about the first,will result in a catastrophic increase in the second.

Braveheart

@Susan Hill..

While Canada was in recession the rest of the World, including the USA, its neighbour and biggest customer, was in boomtime.

It was therefore relatively easy for Canada to grow back, using an export-led recovery targetted on selling to a booming USA.

George Osborne wants the same from the UK, but the rest of the world is not booming. The EU, which is our biggest market, is very patchy...Germany and France growing, the southen countries languishing. So an export-led recovery looks highly unlikely to be the solution for UK Plc.

In fact, as the UK is predicted to be the fastest growing ecnomy in the OECD in the next period, we are more likely to have a stronger currency and to be be sucking in other countries' exports rather than exporting to them.

Cutting public spending now is a big big risk.

I hope George has got it right, but I greatly fear that he has got it wrong.

Of course George'n'Dave won't feel the pain. But the rest of us will.

JR

Susan - thanks for replying. I'm glad that you agree it is a difficult choice.

However I have to say I agree with Braveheart. In a previous life I visited Canada and spoke to senior officials there to discuss their experience in the decade after 92. They put their success largely down to two things - i) very strong consumer demand in the north of the USA during their deficit reduction period, ii) strong immigration to fill skills gaps, iii) the trimming of unemployment insurance to reduce payouts and time limit payments (to increase work incentives) - when this ran out people would move onto means tested benefits.

Obviously related to i) international demand is very weak at the moment and the UK is a much less export led economy. To me this suggests supporting domestic UK cosumer demand to protect the service industry is much more important for the UK in 2010 than it was in Canada in 92/93.

ii) is too big a subject for this post.

The UK Government is looking to try something like iii) here. However the circumstances are very different. Canada had a very generous national unemployment insurance scheme and there was plenty to trim. In this country that isn't the case - you'll get £70 per week for 6 months before you move onto means tested benefits (if you don't have savings). In fact the Canadian employment insurance is still much more generous than ours. To be fair they have a smaller population on disabled benefits (offset by a structuarally larger unemployment rate) but the UK has already adopted their policy by making the medical test for disabled benefits a lot harder.

Other interesting things to note are that they do not ask benefit claimants to undertake interviews or training or do voluntary work etc as we do in the UK. The idea was somewhat alien to them.

So I'd be very careful about transfering the Canada lesson - for one thing it would mean higher benefit payments and less 'conditionality'!

As for deficit reduction I've set out my view (whilst in the medium term envisaging a smaller state) and I can respect those who on blance continue to favour higher deficit reduction. However I'd suggest anyone who without the slightest doubt or uncertainty shouts that further deficit reduction is the only option doesn't know their economic history.

Verity

Of course Labour's going to close the gap. The coalition is but the flimsiest piece of gauze. It has no intellectual or moral ballast. Look at what's "leading" it, for God's sake! David Cameron is probably the stupidest individual - by which I mean intellectually wanting - ever to occupy No 10. You only have to refer back to all his twinky little public relations tricks to see that his head has never produced an original thought.

Unless they change Leaders, the marriage of convenience will be swept away within, at most, three years. I predict two.

JR

For those interested in recent Canadian experience of this recession this is an interesting article - http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/economy/story.html?id=2909946

I'd forgotton that in recent years they've also had, like Australia, a primary industry/raw materials led boom. And that Government spending had also exploaded:

"Canada benefited from a tremendous terms-of-trade advantage, as emerging markets craved the natural resources this country had to offer. This allowed the federal government to record massive budget surpluses, even though growth in program spending was outpacing gains in population, inflation and at times GDP."

Nicholas

"A lot of BBC hate in here. Yeah, we should send in the troops to take over Broadcasting House, shouldn't we? How about having a nightly broadcast from John Redwood; get people to wear brown shirts; special camps for Muslims, that kind of thing?
That's how daft you all sound. Nutters."

And that's how daft you sound. Nutter.

lescam

Vulture
September 14th, 2010 9:43am

"If, however, against my expectations, Dave turns out to be a Thatcher rather than a Heath"

We should be so lucky.
Dave has "limp", "wet", "semi-Lefty", "I just love everybody and everybody loves me" tattooed on his forehead. What a time to have a "leader" who compares unfavourably with a wet lettuce.

As far as the EU goes, we are chained to it for ever. As far as the unions go, ditto.

However, there is one possible ray of sunshine. If there is a general strike, the unions will create such a wave of hatred among the rest of the population (those with sense, that is) that the electorate may come to sympathise with the government, which is the opposite of the unions' intentions.

rumpo

Yes there will be many who seeing the bankers continue to receive ludicrous bonuses, their CEO award himself another 3 digit payrise as the country falls apart...many who will wonder who this government of multi-millionaires represents.

Dimoto

Nicholas, I agree with everything on your post except "government concentrating on the economy" Eh ??
They have done everything but.
Nearly every week, they announce a new "reform" (pretty much like the last lot.
The economy is THE ISSUE, the rest is for another day.
How will the electorate be persuaded of the dire financial situation, if the government spends most of it's time bleating about peripherals ?

As for the JR (Blanchflower) worriers: if they are really concerned that the economy needs a stimulus, it would have to be via large tax cuts to business - which, of course, they wouldn't countenance.
There is NO case for not cutting public expenditure.

To hear Nick Clegg wheedling about "the cuts will only come in, in four years time etc etc" is enough to make anyone lose the will to live. Are they suicidal ?

The coalition seems to have lost momentum, focus and drive after just 4 months.
I think we have to cling on to the hope that Osborne rises to the challenge. It's about all we have.