The finishing post is in sight

JR

One thing to watch is how many people actually pick a second preference, not who they pick. If you don't pick a second preference in haste or otherwise your vote is 'spoiled'. I don't think this was a factor at all in the result last time despite but given the more polarised situation now it could play a very significant role. For instance in 2000: "In the second preference for mayor vote, nearly one in five voters failed to use it."

Personally talking to my friends (none of whom are westminster village) I'm finding a surprising amount of reluctant Ken voters. Lets see if that comes out on polling day.

Oscar Miller

If you don't give a second preference is your vote spoiled? i.e. is it permitted to just give a first choice candidate?

Drew SW London

I don't think that a ballot without a second choice marked is considered as spoiled; this is an irresponsible comment, JR.

http://www.londonelects.org.uk/voting/voting_for_the_mayor.aspx

Mike

JR's comment is deeply irresponsible and incorrect.
I quote from the election website "If you only mark a first choice, your vote will be counted - you do not have to cast your second choice vote. But making a second choice cannot reduce the chance of your first choice candidate being successful. "
JR's comment should be removed as electorally misleading

Oscar Miller

Thanks Drew - that's what I thought. The guidelines are completely clear - If you only mark a first choice, your vote will be counted - you do not have to cast your second choice vote.

Travis Bickle

Rather strange statement from Gordon Brown in PMQs about the possibility of Boris becoming Mayor "we WILL not allow that to happen". I thought the idea was that, short of Mugabe like practices, whoever gained the most votes will be elected, whether the PM (or whoever) wishes to allow it or not..

Tanuki

I'll be really rather glad when the whole london-mayor election thing is finally over. Like the vast majority of the populace of the UK, for me the issue is one of complete and utter irrelevance. I look forward to a similar level of London-centric-media interest in the forthcoming election for replacing the chairman of Witley Scrotum parish council.

Trumpeter Lanfried

I seem to remember reading that bookies' odds are a more accurate guide to the outcome of an election than opinion polls. Is there any research on this?

Fraser Nelson

Mike, you have a point - but I'm afraid several Londoners think as JR does (did) so maybe best to leave it here to record the confusion. Any money this will be a story after polling day - as it was in the Scottish elections in May07

JR

Very happy to withdraw! I'll stick to things I know about and promise not repeat second hand things I was told back in 2000 from now on.

Anyhow I'm struggling for a first choice in this one (sorry Boris fans)? City hall is a shambles with eager newcomers who come in to work on projects shocked by what they find. But then again with the personal drive you need to get anything done in this town I don't fancy Boris in that role. And i really, really don't care about bendy buses or the congestion zone given I live near a tube station.

Sean

Treat the Mayoral contest as a judgement on Brown and the Labour party, as much as on Livingstone and his record in London. Make Brown squirm.

TGF UKIP

Tanuki, hear, hear! Remember, though, that Boris Jonson is absolutely typically of the metropolitan liberal elite and The Speccie is produced by his fellow companions in that elite. No surprise, therefore, that there should be the degree of Johnson cheerleading there is on this blog. What really galls me, though, is that all the pc values of that alien city get foisted on the rest of us. Why oh why can't we have a provincial values conservative party instead of just the three metropolitan liberal social democrat parties we have now.

THX1138

TGF UKIP- I see you guys managed to nick an MP off The Tories. Well Done

Is he any good? He looks a bit like Farage don't you think?

salieri

TGF: rest assured, we shall all get duly excited when the Witley Scrotum mayoral election is a straight ideological clash between a mindless bigot and a man of principle. You may be right about 'provincial values' (sounds good but what are they, exactly?) and you're also right to suggest that Londoners can be just as parochial in their own way. But surely the interest this clash has generated stems from the first real possibility of electoral defeat for NuLab in all its most repellent guises. Do please concede that a visceral loathing for pond-life is not necessarily the same as unqualified adoration of BJ, who has brains and charm but has yet to prove himself as a serious politician. We are not all Johnson cheerleaders, thank you.

As for 'metropolitan liberal elite' we part company, I'm afraid. If that means anything it suggests nothing more than a chip on the shoulder. and a large one at that.

And finally, 'that alien city'. Really? London is not England but it is, you must allow, a fairly important part of it. Besides, remember your Terence: humani nil a me alienum puto.

James J

Regarding Bookies’ odds anyone tried to get a bet on the BNP coming fouth? Are any of the bookies offering odds?

Oscar Miller

Travis Bickle - I noticed they got a backbencher at PMQs to peddle the lie that Boris will abolish the Freedom Pass. Why is lying in the House like this allowed? The country is being utterly misled. The fact is Brown stood up at PMQs and told whopper after whopper. Cameron, who seemed genuinely angry - told it how it was. The whole unedifying mess over abolishing the 10p rate of tax came about because of Gordon's psychotic oneupmanship. And now he's turned PMQs into one big lie machine to cover up his endless miscalculations.

Fergus Pickering

Fifteen per cent of the population of the UK live in London. London's population is more than ten times that of Liverpool and equal to the populations of Scotland and Wales combined. What is this metropolitan elite rubbish? The Mayor of London is a more important figure than most of the cabinet, than the first minister of Scotland, than whoever it is rules in Wales. What makes this seven and a half million people alien to you, TGF UKIP? I don't live in London but that doesn't mean I pretend the place doesn't exist. If Boris wins in London he will be a national figure, just like that. Even, perhaps, an international figure. So don't be silly.

Diversity

Of course the media tends to cheer for Boris. Boris is good copy. Ken was good copy when he was fighting against New Labour. Now he feels to editors rather like yesterday's newsprint. Brian the Paddick is a surprising and interesating chap, and probably the best Mayor, but he has a gift for not being good copy.

Still, a first preference for Brian and a second aginst the worst outcome won't do any harm.

Kenneth

Ken can always spend more time running his coffee shop in Kerala if things don't turn out the way he wanted