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Monday, 27th September 2010

The IMF delivers a boost for George Osborne

Peter Hoskin 3:41pm

The proclamations of economists and economic bodies shouldn't be taken as the be-all-and-end-all of fiscal policy – for every one claiming that a decision is right, you can find another insisting that it is wrong. But the coalition will still be pleased by the influential International Monetary Fund's latest report, here. It begins:

"The UK economy is on the mend. Economic recovery is underway, unemployment has stabilized, and financial sector health has improved. The government’s strong and credible multi-year fiscal deficit reduction plan is essential to ensure debt sustainability. The plan greatly reduces the risk of a costly loss of confidence in public finances and supports a balanced recovery. Fiscal tightening will dampen short-term growth but not stop it as other sectors of the economy emerge as drivers of recovery, supported by continued monetary stimulus."
And continues, further down:
"The government’s strong deficit reduction plan will ensure fiscal sustainability. The fiscal mandate of balancing the cyclically-adjusted current budget by 2015/16 is appropriately ambitious. The plan’s credibility has been bolstered by a frontloaded path that achieves the mandate one year early and by a suitable mix of concrete spending and revenue measures. The consolidation plan and implementation of early measures to tackle the deficit—one of the highest in the world in 2010—greatly reduces the risk of a costly loss of confidence in fiscal sustainability and will help rebalance the economy. These benefits outweigh the expected costs in terms of adverse effects on near-term growth. Indeed, market reaction to the adjustment plan has been positive."
There's even a dollop of praise for the Office for Budget Responsibilty:
"The establishment of a new independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is a welcome step toward strengthening the budget process. Addressing deficiencies in the previous fiscal framework, the tasks envisaged for the new independent office—including to provide the macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts for the budget and to assess fiscal sustainability and compliance with the fiscal mandate—are apt."
Although there are some notes of caution:
"Nonetheless, important challenges remain. The ongoing adjustment of bank balance sheets needs to continue, as public support schemes taper off and regulatory requirements tighten. Meanwhile, uncertainty about the sustainability of bank profits and the quality of their assets, especially some banks’ exposure to commercial real estate, remains significant. Faced with such uncertainty, banks have stayed cautious about extending new credit. Tight credit supply, in turn, could curb the pace of recovery once credit demand, which is currently weak, picks up."
You can expect the coalition to make a lot of this report. But my question is: what happens if Gordon Brown takes over the IMF, as some speculate he might?

Filed under: Coalition (2088 more articles) , Conservatives (2311 more articles) , Debt (191 more articles) , George Osborne (798 more articles) , Gordon Brown (918 more articles) , IMF (35 more articles) , Liberal Democrats (1155 more articles) , Public finances (753 more articles) , Treasury (226 more articles) , UK politics (5405 more articles)

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Norman Dee

September 27th, 2010 4:16pm Report this comment

Re Brown and the IMF, how does this happen? how do these unemployable failures end up in these jobs ? unelected and yet back in control of large parts of our lives. Kinnock then Mandelson, now Brown, all earning massive salaries with enormous pensions for FAILING in their first choice jobs, and then failing to make an impact in the rescue jobs they take up. At least Kinnock didn't come back to front line politics, although the annoying little twat was constantly in the background.

Gawain

September 27th, 2010 4:17pm Report this comment

Broon in charge of the IMF would be a bit like putting Dracula in charge of the National Blood Transfusion Service ! I pray that rumour is a wind up.

GeoffH

September 27th, 2010 4:22pm Report this comment

"But my question is: what happens if Gordon Brown takes over the IMF, as some speculate he might?"

In such a situation, we should put the IMF on notice that any partisan criticism of the UK would immediately be followed by withdrawal of any UK support.

Alan Edwards

September 27th, 2010 4:24pm Report this comment

I LOVE THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY!

Richard of York

September 27th, 2010 4:25pm Report this comment

Far too early for this to carry any credibility.
Perhaps the report on Ireland last year could be linked to just for reference....you know the one that said exactly the same but now we learn the rating agency has now lowered its value causing even more austerity.
Maybe it is too much to ask the Speccy to actually be fair.

Liz Brown

September 27th, 2010 4:32pm Report this comment

If Jonah gormless Brown were to become Chief of the IMF, then God help us all and how would that square his tarting himself around for charrideeeeeeeee

John Bracewell

September 27th, 2010 4:36pm Report this comment

'what happens if Gordon Brown takes over the IMF?'
Its reputation sinks and left-wing, socialist nonsense will abound, since he will force his view on everyone there, like he did on the people in his failed UK government. He is not a team player.

Tiberius

September 27th, 2010 4:42pm Report this comment

I always said to you guys that Osborne was The Man when you were continually slagging him off.

Brown will only be considered for the IMF job if it is open to people retarded in Economics. Hopefully it won't be.

General Zod

September 27th, 2010 4:53pm Report this comment

Oh, Dickie, I'm surprised you didn't try to shift the credit to Brown.

TrevorsDen

September 27th, 2010 4:54pm Report this comment

RoY is quick out of the blocks - I think his post is far too early to carry any credibility.

One key phrase we should remember - 'the deficit—one of the highest in the world in 2010'
That is not a good augary for any application from Brown.
Is there a veto on the IMF top job - surely it should go to someone from a banking background ?

Dimoto

September 27th, 2010 4:57pm Report this comment

"... for every one claiming that a decision is right, you can find another insisting that it is wrong.!

Yes, and he is invariably called Blanchflower (or Krugman).

Verity

September 27th, 2010 5:00pm Report this comment

"The IMF delivers a boost for George Osborne".

But not, unfortunately, assisted by a jet-propelled rocket.

GeoffH

September 27th, 2010 5:21pm Report this comment

"RoY is quick out of the blocks"

We should, of course, remember the rest of the mnemonic: Gave Battle In Vain.

Sort of sums up the DORK's efforts perfectly - across the spectrum.

Occasional Ostrich

September 27th, 2010 5:58pm Report this comment

@RoY

You? complaining about the Speccy being unfair?

Who'd've thunk it?

The Oncoming Storm

September 27th, 2010 5:58pm Report this comment

Ireland's downgrading was entirely due to the announcement that the total liability for bailing out Anglo Irish Bank will be significantly greater than the government first predicted. Also the markets are nervous that the country's second largest bank, Allied Irish may need to seek further recapitalization. If that were to happen then the IMF would have to step in.

Neil Wilson

September 27th, 2010 6:33pm Report this comment

Is this the same IMF that was so helpful during the Argentinian crisis and the Asian crisis. So much so they had to hold inquests into their actions?

The IMF has a pitch the same as all the other bodies. It doesn't matter what the evidence on the ground is. It matters what they said last year.

Let's hope the deflationary impact of VAT rises, public spending withdrawal *and* quantitative easing are sufficiently offset by the ongoing deficit spending.

I just which the coalition would be honest and say that they have to rebalance the public sector towards minimum wage temporary jobs for those with nowhere else to go.

JohnBUK

September 27th, 2010 7:58pm Report this comment

Norman Dee - "At least Kinnock didn't come back to front line politics, although the annoying little twat was constantly in the background." Sadly the little twat boyo did better than that - he and his lovely wife joined the EU gravy train to excellent effect. It was so good his son vicariously joined the trough via his wife as well. Sorry, should have said "Lord" twat Kinnock.

Simon Stephenson

September 27th, 2010 9:04pm Report this comment

Richard of York : 4.25pm

"Perhaps the report on Ireland last year could be linked to just for reference....you know the one that said exactly the same but now we learn the rating agency has now lowered its value causing even more austerity."

Before you start spouting Labour's current orthodoxy about Ireland, perhaps you'ld do well to find out a bit more about what's going on there, and the pressures they are under that prevent them from taking the "brush in under the carpet" route that you seem to think is the right way.

For example, and for balance, these two articles might help:-

http://www.economics21.org/commentary/real-lesson-about-irish-austerity-plan

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2010/09/why_ireland_cant_afford_to_pun.html

I'm not suggesting that you abandon your radicalism, but perhaps if you learned to pitch your recommendations somewhere within the boundaries of reasonable likelihood, people might form the opinion that you had something worthwhile to offer.

Richard of York

September 27th, 2010 10:01pm Report this comment

Simon do you actually speak the same way as you write?

the don

September 27th, 2010 11:38pm Report this comment

When did the IMF become a Tory Media departmet what a lot of rubbish these guys can not have any credability as early september they were the ones who were warning Mr osbourne not to cut to quickly i rest my case

Malcolm Gardner

September 28th, 2010 7:37am Report this comment

The IMF are not be-all-and-end-all and has been consistenty slagged off by the right-wing when they do not like what the IMF are saying. This report is one of a series that has commended Labour's approach (but with a warning of some weaknesses) and now the Tories (with warning of weaknesses). The IMF do not run the ecconomies of Countries, they comment on them. This would be like getting Robert Preston comment on your budget for bringing up your kids.

He would advise you to not spend so much on their clothes and food and cutting out non-essentials like mobile phone, PC and broadband and a TV in their bedroom. Plus they could walk to school, it would be good for them and the environment. Like, you would be interestedin what Preston has to say, especially once the Kids start moaning and producing reports from Teen Magazines showing how you are a bad parent for treating them this way. But hey you can always tell the little darlings to get a Saturday Job (a let's hope the brother's don't go for the same paper-round). yep, you would soon be ignoring that financial advice from Mr Preston and the IMF.

Simon Stephenson

September 28th, 2010 11:14am Report this comment

Richard of York : 10.01pm

No, of course not. Does anyone?

How can you expect to get anything right if you don't have several goes at it? As Churchill said, all the best off-the-cuff remarks are prepared at least 24 hours in advance.

Simon Stephenson

September 28th, 2010 12:32pm Report this comment

the don : 11.38pm

"When did the IMF become a Tory Media departmet what a lot of rubbish these guys can not have any credability as early september they were the ones who were warning Mr osbourne not to cut to quickly i rest my case"

You're not an English don, I trust?

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