Liam Fox does a David Miliband
Peter Hoskin 9:10am
At least the political fates have a sense of humour. No sooner had David Miliband's frustration screamed into view last night, than the Tories were hit by a story that was similar in several regards: the leaked Liam
Fox letter, expressing his anger over spending cuts. Here are a handful of those similarities:
1) Leakage. David Miliband's words for Harriet Harman were meant to be for their ears only, but the TV cameras picked them up. Similarly, Fox's letter was meant to be between him
and the PM – but now it's splashed across the front page of the Telegraph. The only difference is that the Fox letter has been put out by someone in Whitehall, a politically interested actor.
Not only is this something that is, as Tim Montgomerie notes, happening with
drip-drop regularity – but it will up the paranoia levels in government.
2) Tension. If anything, Fox's intervention is even more angry than Miliband's. He writes of the defence review that, "frankly, this process is looking less and less defensible as a
proper SDSR and more like a "super [Comprehensive Spending Review]. If it continues on its current trajectory it is likely to have grave political consequences for us." He adds that,
"the cuts are “financially and intellectually virtually impossible," and that the Tories risk, "destroying much of [their] reputation and capital" on defence as a result.
That he is making these pleas directly to the Prime Minister, rather than to Danny Alexander and his spending review team, is a sure sign of the tensions between the MoD and the
Treasury.
3) Understandable. I said yesterday that I have some symapthy for David Miliband's attack on Harman and her fellow Iraq sidesteppers – and likewise for Liam Fox's points in this letter. Defence was one of the few areas that didn't enjoy the sloppy largesse of the Brown years, operating on a peacetime budget during two major conflicts. And, now that Labour have been shunted out, the rationalisation process appears to be proceeding messily. Some officials complain about a "listless" defence review that "lacks direction," and that the cuts are being directed by Treasury targets rather than by strategic considerations. I don't doubt, though, that significant savings can be found – especially when it comes to procurement. And, in the end, it might just come down to the distinction that Paul Goodman makes over at ConservativeHome: "David Cameron can either shelter Departmental budgets or reduce the deficit. He can't do both."
4) Difficulties. The Milifootage came at the worst time for his party: in the immediate aftermath of his brother's maiden speech as party leader. The Fox letter comes at a bad time for the Tories: just days ahead of their party conference. Westminster will now train its Geiger counters on Fox and Osborne, eager to pick up any signs of fallout. More significant, though, is the fact that the spending review is only three weeks away. Might Fox's letter embolden other ministers to lobby the Prime Minister directly, and with anger? In any case, how Downing St responds will be crucial in taming the demands of other departments.
Previous
Jannie Geldenhuys
September 29th, 2010 9:30am Report this commentDoubtless eaked by a Labour sympathising civil servant who wants to try and deflect attention from the Mili-drama.
Andy
September 29th, 2010 9:37am Report this commentA correction for you and Alex, when Fox mentioned 25% he specifically said that it was about the MoD running costs and not the defence budget - 2 entirely seperate things.
Just to be fair to the Defence Secretary.
John
September 29th, 2010 9:37am Report this commentCameron has to sack Fox otherwise he looks weak.
Pete Hoskin
September 29th, 2010 9:39am Report this commentAndy: you're right, my mistake. Have taken the reference out.
occasional ranter
September 29th, 2010 9:46am Report this commentDoes anyone seriously doubt that Liam Fox leaked the letter himself, or at least ensured it was created and sent in such a way that it was likely to be leaked ?
The man is, to coin a phrase, "psychologically flawed".
David Bouvier
September 29th, 2010 9:54am Report this commentOr leaked by Fox himself - some of the quotes sound more like stuff aimed at an audience not a colleague.
oldtimer
September 29th, 2010 10:00am Report this commentThe contents, as reported by the DT, seem obvious to me and reasonable points to make. The real question is who leaked and why. It certainly provides grounds for conspiracy theories (was it Fox or Cameron via their acolytes, the military or a Labour mole?) and, probably, is more convoluted than appears at first sight. I have no idea. One thing for sure - it does the reputation of this government no good at all.
Vulture
September 29th, 2010 10:04am Report this commentThe first duty of Government is to defend the country. Forget health, education, transport, and the rest - all dross compared to defence.
Liam Fox is doing more than defending his corner - he is defending his country and it is shaming that it needs a real Tory to tell a fake Conservative like Dave these home truths.
On the day that we hear about an Al Quaeda plot to attack our cities, seize hostages and murder them, don't we need more not less defence?
Answers on a postcard to the two numpties in Downing Street.
justathought
September 29th, 2010 10:08am Report this commentWhile Fox flags up the reputational risk of cuts to his department the whole government should consider the reputational risk if they back-slide on the promised deficit reduction.
The IMF has given its endorsement to the coalition strategy for the economy, and all the departments were quite clear that they would have to throw their weight behind the PM.
The markets are watching the credit rating agencies can put a line under UK PLC or through it !
Holly ......
September 29th, 2010 10:33am Report this commentThis is totally different from what happened
with David 'gone up in my estimation'
Milliband.
To compare the two is daft.
Fox is fighting his corner for his dept and would not be doing his job if he didn't.
David Milliband was already wound up and seeing two faced Harman applauding for something she voted for and backed at every opportunity, was something he could no longer stomach.
One is about a politician doing a job and the other is about a politician seeing his party & colleagues for what they are.
Welcome to the REAL face of New Generation Labour David.....sickening isn't it.
What David should do now is .....
CROSS THE FLOOR!!!!!!
TrevorsDen
September 29th, 2010 10:57am Report this comment'First duty of the govt is to defend the country.'
Correct. And we do that by means of our NATO alliance. Invading Iraq and fighting in Afghanistan are all very well if we can afford it.
So just what is our strategic needs? Not aircraft carriers which would only encourage more foreign interventions. What are called defence cuts are in fact cutbacks on programmes which have no budgets. The MoD is overcommitted to the tune of £38 billion.
I think in fact the final review will fit in with what Fox says. Only 5000 troop cuts to the army. I think also that right at the outset it was said there would be no troop cuts until we left Afghanistan. Tanks and artillery will bear the brunt.
Mirtha Tidville
September 29th, 2010 11:15am Report this commentTrevorsden
Are you serious that we can somehow defend ourselves by use of NATO..Colectively they are useless..They have refused, point blank, to send helicopters to Afghanistan when we were desperate for them and most of them would only send token numbers of troops to the north where the bullets werent flying....So what could we expect from NATO, if we were in the poo, apart from 2 Belgian MInesweepers and a Hercules from Denmark?
Think Vulture`s contribution is excellent
Dimoto
September 29th, 2010 11:28am Report this commentWhat are the "threats" ?
A terrorist threat (from Al Qaeda & co or Ireland), not a first order, existential threat for the nation, so should not distort defence planning.
Argentina possibly raising the temperature on the Falklands.
Some sailors straying into disputed waters in the Persian gulf.
and, errr ..... any more for any more ??
No wonder it is a "listless" defence review, no first (or even second) order threats in sight.
No doubt the second-raters at the top of our armed forces can amuse themselves with plans to invade Iran or take on China in the South China Sea, but that has nothing to do with anything.
Plus a supine/near potless US government not about to get into more adventures.
We might get called on for a few hundred "peacekeepers" if the Balkans get excited again.
Actually, with our parlous financial state and "irresolute" electorate, we might do better by switching the defence budget to a "winning new friends and influencing people" budget.
Maybe someone in Downing St leaked the letter.
Chris lancashire
September 29th, 2010 11:53am Report this commentCan we just put a bit of perspective on Defence spending? This country has the fourth highest defence Budget in the world and that is plain unsustainable. We should never have got into the position of fighting two US inspired, unwinnable foreign wars and I think Cameron calculates that he will extract us and never, ever repeat that mistake.
Given that, we do need to reduce the size and expenditure on Armed Forces and it is fairly obvious that at least one and preferably both aircraft carriers along with the aircraft should be cancelled.
Norman Dee
September 29th, 2010 12:17pm Report this commentCross the Floor to where Holly?, both the opposition parties are in Coalition, and a voyage to either would put his mother in an early grave, and raise the speed at which his fathers body is spinning to a point where it would be feasable to harness it. It would produce an interesting conundrum for Cameron / Clegg but I just don't see it happening.
Peter From Maidstone
September 29th, 2010 1:46pm Report this commentWhat on earth is wrong with a minister writing a stiff letter to the PM and seeking to defend his department? I can't see anything wrong with that at all, and as usual the New Spectator-man is making a mountain out of what would be entirely expected.
At some point the PM will have to lead a final decision making process, but until that time it is entirely reasonable, sensible and normal for all ministers to be seeking to protect their departments spending as far as possible.
Kennybhoy
September 29th, 2010 7:11pm Report this commentDimoto wrote:
".. not a first order, existential threat for the nation, so should not distort defence planning."
You do not consider the very real possibility of a terrorist or state sponsored nuclear attack on ourselves or one of our allies to be a "first order, existential threat"...?
Tapestry
September 29th, 2010 9:36pm Report this commentThe current threats are of a war in Asia involving China or North Korea. In Europe the biggest threat is Russian rearmament which is going ahead to the tune of 5000 tanks, 1000 aircraft and helicopters, and a new submarine fleet all to be completed by 2015
gibbon
September 30th, 2010 2:57pm Report this commenta leftie civil servant leaking to the Telegraph?
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