The last Monday YouGov poll for the Evening Standard has Boris on 46 percent to Ken’s 35. Once the second preferences are factored in, Boris leads Ken 55 to 45. If you still haven’t decided who to vote for, do read Matt’s piece in the magazine on why Boris is the right man for London.
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Comments
George F
April 28th, 2008 12:48pmOne of Mori or YouGov has this very wrong.
THX1138
April 28th, 2008 2:11pmWhatever the result this is bad news for pollsters. 13% discrepancy between the last MORI& YouGov poll. Someone is very wrong
I don't know how relevant it is but the last YouGov had the Tory lead at 18% and everyone else about 9%. I know I'm biased against Boris but it feels much closer than an 11% lead and after all it was commissioned by the ES they probably put the decimal point in wrong place.
Oscar Miller
April 28th, 2008 4:37pmTHX1138 - as Mike Smithson at PoliticalBetting is fond of quoting - a rogue poll is one you don't agree with. Seems you're keen to think the ES might be biased - but not the Unions that commissioned MORI? Let's wait til May 2nd shall we before passing judgement. Not long to go now.
THX1138
April 28th, 2008 5:06pmOscar I agree with your point about rogue polls. Without a doubt the ES is biased have you not been following their coverage I doubt however that even they have manipulated the poll except to choose a pollster that always seems to overstate the Tory position. The Sunday Times with MRUK also had Ken ahead and they came out for Boris.
As you say we will know on Friday
On a broader point I do worry that if Boris wins very rarely will a politician owe a paper such a debt, and with the ES having effectively no competition in LDN this can't be healthy. I willing to wager a significant amount that should Boris win that Associated Newspapers re tender (which comes up in 18 mths) for the Metro free distribution paper on the Tube will be shoo in
John
April 28th, 2008 5:25pm" know I'm biased against Boris but it feels much closer than an 11% lead" - it FEELS like 11%? Give me strength.
Oscar Miller
April 28th, 2008 5:30pmTHX1138 - yeah you're right. You really are biased against Boris.
Ian C
April 28th, 2008 6:15pmNow that there is an air of an expected Boris victory, it will be bad news for the Tories if he loses - and anyway de facto bad news if he wins. If he is elected and cannot return to being Boris he will die a thousand deaths -personal and political - and lose in 4 years time at an embarrassing time for Cameron regardless o fthe outcome of the next election. A short term calculated risk that Cameron took, but a Boris victory is far from the good news readers here expect it to be.