Brown plans a by-election bounce

David Lindsay

If the Tories don't win this, then the much-trumpetted News of the World poll is just wrong, as are all the others. Will they dump Cameron? If not, why not?

Three Leadership Elections this year? Don't bet on it. But don't bet against it, either.

Alex

DL - relax tiger. Why on earth should they dump Cameron? Crewe and Nantwich is about 165th on the list requiring a 8.4% swing to the Cons. We are still a couple of years away from the general election. By that time things will be even worse for Labour.

Thomas Cussans

Interestingly, given of course that any Brown-sponsored political initiative takes its starting point exclusively from narrow political manouvering, I understand that the Labour candidate is Dunwoody's daughter. That wouldn't mean that Gordo is, after all, in favour of inherited advantage, after all, and is cashing in on the sob factor, would it?

So much for meritocracy.

David Lindsay

IDS was officially dumped for a better by-election result than that, Alex.

In fact, IDS was dumped for being too good. He made them the largest party in local government, took them to parity and beyond in the opinion polls, and generally threatened to turn the 2005 Election into a proper contest, including a contest of ideas. So he had to go.

Cameron runs no risk of turning the 2010 Election into a contest of ideas. And he can't keep up this "vote for me because I smile a lot" act for another two years.

So if the Tories don't win Crewe and Nantwich, then they should get rid of him and see if they can find a politician instead. But who?

TGF UKIP

While Cheshire is a Home County that got lost, Crewe itself is much more northern and a long way in every sense from the M25. The Tories may have a chance if they go for a local no-metropolitan-nonsense candidate but if it's a carpet bagging A-Lister then I reckon you'r bang on Fraser.

David Lindsay

And it will be, TGF UKIP. Proving that Cameron must go.

According to the polls, they should win this seat (Tories in the blogosphere are tellingly going on as if it had a Labour majority twice or three times the actual one). If they don't win it, then the polls are just plain wrong, and Cameron has failed.

Acer

A by-election so soon after the 1 May elections will mean that any criticism of Brown will be muted for fear of rocking the Crewe vote. It buys Gordo time.

Fraser Nelson

Word is that Labour's candidate may well be Tamsin Dunwoody, Gwyneth's politically-active daughter. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tamsin_Dunwoody

Lucan C. Heraclitus

Thanks Fraser for that tidbit - seat held I take it, unless the class warriors in Labour decide to turn on posh ladies with names such as Tamsin.

Lucan C. Heraclitus

Thanks Fraser for that tidbit - seat held I take it, unless the class warriors in Labour decide to turn on posh ladies with names such as Tamsin.

Chuck Unsworth

Oh dear! Tamsin Dunwoody. Oh dear.

The lady is most certainly not a chip off the old block.

Fergus Pickering

Remind me someone. Who IS David Lindsay? An ancestor of his was a poet but I don't detect much soul here. Just banging on and on and on. IDS was useless. Couldn't run hisown office. Couldn't run a whelk stall. Couldn't speak in public. Whateve this Bullingdon does for a man, right on because we need more of it. Tories haven't a prayer in Crewe in my opinion, and it doesn't matter a roww of beans. Go Tamsin if you are anything like your Mum. Go Tamsin and kick Gordon's Scotch behind.

Mike

David Lindsay - make hay whilst you are still in office. It's all over come May 2010. If you think the polls are wrong, we agree. If anything they understate the level of dissolution and anger with NewLabour. A question for you. When will Labour get rid of Brown?

Napoleon

"will turn up in their caravans, and gobble an unfair share of the anti-Brown vote. So a very small chance of a Tory victory, I’d say."
Sure, but the Tories need to win this. I’m sure it will be hard, there are local factors that will not help them, but that’s no excuse. There will always be adversities, and if the Tories will use this as an excuse that they could never win this seat (and others), than they can forget about a majority. I’m not saying that they should do as they did last time, when they talked about a win, and had a deception, but they can do more, and should never say that this is just one case, because one case could amount to a lot of problems…

John

Oh, we know who David Lindsay is. He is a fantasist who thinks he can foretell the future, and it's all rosy for MacBean. And he knows exactly what the Tories will do and will happen to them: "And it will be, TGF UKIP. Proving that Cameron must go."

Sad, really.

newmania

What are Brown’s ideas David .Inheritance tax ,taxing the poor ,academies ,curbing immigration ,British values? If Brown made it a contest of his own ideas he would be obliged to admit that he is a big state high tax socialist and perhaps win a Council seat in Rockall. Still this will be crucial by election and given the Polls it is a tricky position for the Conservatives , almost anything short of the disappearance of Labour will be counted a failure .
The silly Liberals in their caravans are indeed a problem .They do it because they are teachers . It always strikes me that Liberals should count teachers pay for their ridiculous holidays as Party funding from the Public purse .

Fraser Watch

No! Iain Dale has said they have moved the writ before Gwyneth Dunwoody's funeral has taken place not that the election will take place before she is laid to rest.

Get you facts right!

Fraser Nelson

Mr Watch, thanks. I have corrected.

Nick Kaplan

Newmania; unfortunately a “big state high tax socialist” is exactly what the rabidly anti-Thatcher David wants in government. His wild assertions built mostly on lies and a misunderstanding of the British Political system, seems to have led him to think that anyone with a less than Stalinist grip on power is unfit for office, and this is why he sees a loss in this by-election as the end for Cameron... Grow up David!

salieri

Calm down, chaps. All this abuse of David Lindsay, just because you don't agree with his point of view.

Old Hack

Lets be utterly unreasonable and draw comparison with the '93-'97 nadir of the Conservatives when they were losing safe seats with large majorities to both Lib Dems and Labour.
If the reverse applies, as it should, then Crewe and Nantwich should be easily attainable for the Conservatives.
But will it?

David Lindsay

I'm not here to defend Brown. I'm not a Labour Party member and I don't know where anyone got the idea that I was.

Brown's ideas, Newmania? Same as Cameron's. Cameron's ideas? Same as Brown's. Who acres which of them wins?

What do you expect Cameron to do, apart from make Andrew Adonis Education Secretary, have Tony Blair attend Cabinet, have Blair's old allies as "advisors" all over the place, probably make Ken Clarke Lord Chancellor, and possibly refuse to allow Tory candidates against the very Blairiest Labour MPs in 2014 or 2015?

I've actually got my hands on a copy of Sunday's News of the World, and it specifically lists Crewe and Nantwich as a seat that the Tories will win if its poll is correct. If they don't, then it isn't.

And Fergus Pickering, the record of IDS speaks for itself, and contrasts markedly with that of his successors. He made you the largest party in local government, and he took you to parity and beyond in the opinion polls.

A fat lot of good getting rid of him did you once the General Election came round. Which was why you did it. You didn't want to win and have to put up with someone who could, on a good day, pass for a conservative as Prime Minister.

As for Cameron, large numbers of traditional provinicial Tories who despise him are about to become Councillors, and when it comes to votes for the House of Commons, then his record is of turning safe seats into knife-edge marginals and respectable second places into distant thirds, on one notable occasion only marginally ahead of the BNP.

Michael Riley

It is the kind of seat the Tories should be winning easily at this stage of an unpopular government. The problem for Cameron is that he needs to concentrate more on the Liberal Democrats and annihilate them. They are splitting the anti Tory vote. Remember in 2005 Labour won on 35%of the vote.