Cameron must play his cards well to win in Europe
Mats Persson 2:49pm
The British media woke up this week, realising that Europe still exists. As David Cameron travels to Brussels, questions loom over what, exactly,
he can achieve in Europe – at this summit, and more importantly, moving forward.
Much of the commentary surrounding the summit has focussed on the increase to the EU’s 2011 budget, which Cameron is fighting. And for good reason. It’s insane that Britain
– or any other net contributing state – should be forced to accept any increase to the EU budget, at a time of tough austerity at home.
Cameron has spent considerable time talking up the negotiations on the budget increase, so he may have an ace up his sleeve to achieve a cash freeze tomorrow or in the coming weeks. But a 2.9
percent hike is not unlikely, meaning that an extra £430 million would be added to UK taxpayers EU bill – or even more once the European Parliament has had its greedy hands on it.
However, as outrageous as it is, the annual budget increase is only a side show in a far bigger act.
Even if he were to achieve a freeze to the EU budget, there’s nothing stopping MEPs and other member states from pushing through a substantial increase in 2012 or 2013 to make up for it. The
EU budget is negotiated in seven-year periods (though that can vary), with minor adjustments being made on an annual basis. Sadly, negotiations over this budget period have already been lost
– courtesy of Tony Blair in 2005.
So the bigger prize – which may or may not be discussed in corridors at the summit – is clearly a reduction in the size of the budget from 2014 onwards. Cameron has rightly stated that
this is his priority moving forward.
But here Cameron could be committing a strategic mistake. The temptation is to try to ask for concessions on the post-2014 EU budget, in return for supporting Merkel’s repeated calls for a Treaty change to fix the eurozone.
Thing is, the UK already has a veto over the negotiations on the post-2014 budget. If the UK refuses to agree, an effective cash freeze will be achieved anyway as the previous budget will be
carried over. Secondly, member states are desperate to get rid of the UK’s rebate from the EU budget
– in itself a powerful bargaining chip.
So if Cameron trades budget concessions for Treaty change, he will effectively be giving his EU partners two for the price of one.
A better way forward for Cameron is to horse trade on the EU budget and possible Treaty change separately.
Despite strong opposition from EU leaders, German Chancellor Angela Merkel continues to push for a Treaty change to fix the eurozone. And she won’t cave in easily.
As we’ve argued before, Cameron should back Merkel’s calls for Treaty change in
return for repatriating powers to Britain. It Treaty change actually materialises, the whole package can then be put to a public vote in a genuine referendum on EU reform. Many Tory backbenchers are now picking up on this idea as well.
Cameron and Merkel will meet on Saturday night over dinner to discuss the way forward for the EU. The Prime Minister must think carefully about how to use the unusually fluid European situation to
put Britain’s relationship with the EU on a more sustainable path.
The scope for a new Anglo-German grand bargain is greater than in a long-time. But for Cameron to give away his hand this early would be a serious mistake.
Mats Persson is Director of Open Europe
Previous
Verity
October 28th, 2010 2:56pm Report this comment"Cameron must play hiscards well to win in Eureop"...
Incorrect.
Cameron must execute his pledge to take Britain out of Europe.
Cynic
October 28th, 2010 3:09pm Report this comment"A better way forward for Cameron is to horse trade on the EU budget and possible Treaty change separately." An even better way forward for the UK would be for Cameron to say that we're broke, we're having to reduce expenditure and so we're not paying any more EU subs. If you don't like it, I'll offer the country a referendum on in or out. However, I expect Cameron will cave in and we'll end up pouring even more billions into the open maw of the EU which hasn't had its budgets signed off for over a decade. Moreover, I predict that he will do this in return for concessions which will never materialise. We're all in it together? Not if you're on the EU gravy train, you aren't.
Liz Brown
October 28th, 2010 3:14pm Report this commentNo discussion, just get us out of Europe - end of
Ian Walker
October 28th, 2010 3:20pm Report this commentHere is my five-step plan for a sustainable EU future for Britain.
1) Leave the EU
2) Sit
3) Back
4) And
5) Relax
The EU is a bloated, corrupt waste of money. Time to cut it off and start again, with a new, tighter-focussed trading bloc.
Rhoda Klapp
October 28th, 2010 3:21pm Report this commentLet Rhoda have a go at prediction:
Reduced bills? No, possibly a smaller increase than expected.
Repatriated powers? No. Not in a million years.
Any kind of referendum? YMBFJ.
Prove me wrong, Dave.
Vulture
October 28th, 2010 3:26pm Report this commentI don't think you quite get the picture, Mats.
Dave isn't interested in 'winning in Europe', 'getting a good deal for Britain' or any of that other BS you closet Europhiles push out.
Cameron is sold lock stock and barrel to the undemocratic, corrupt EUSSR. He will do what he is told to do by our masters. Or in Frau Frumpel's case, by our mistresses.
CW
October 28th, 2010 4:09pm Report this commentWhat is wrong with you lot.
Stop bleating on about leaving Europe it's not going to happen and nor should it.
Verity
October 28th, 2010 5:15pm Report this commentIan Walker:
6. Pop the Champagne cork ... California or Chile, of course.
MatthewJ
October 28th, 2010 5:15pm Report this comment"Cameron must execute his pledge to take Britain out of Europe."
And which pledge would that be? Just make stuff up why don't you...
Rhoda Klapp
October 28th, 2010 5:18pm Report this commentCW, make your case, don't just leave it as if it were obvious. It isn't. Somewhere around half the population don't like the EU. They have no credible party to vote for, as this subject is one of those in which we are allowed no say. Make your case. Oh, don't bother with the fake lost jobs thing, that is blown away by the number of EU workrs here. Don't bother with the little Englander meme either, we want to trade freely with the world.
Verity
October 28th, 2010 5:25pm Report this commentEither out of Europe and continue to trade with Europe as the independent country our ancestors fought for or the Conservator (soi-disant) Party and the Lib Dems will be back out in the wilderness and Cameron will no longer have the Number 10 background against which to pose with his boring family.
Look for surge in UKIP, BNP and the EDL.
Verity
October 28th, 2010 5:33pm Report this commentCW "... nor should it". Wha'? Care to share why we shouldn't bugger off? And formalise the Anglosphere, which operates on our wave length and our language? The Continentals are not to be trusted with the exception of the Danes, Swedes and Norwegians. Even the Dutch are a bit iffy.
John David Barnett
October 28th, 2010 5:55pm Report this commentVerity has serious problems.
Ian Walker
October 28th, 2010 5:57pm Report this commentCW - I'm not interested in leaving "Europe" as a trading force - against the Chinese and Indians it would be commercial suicide.
I just think we should scrap the European Union, which has been since its inception a Franco-German federalist movement. Tear down its buildings and institutions, and just have a free trade agreement and a common import/export tariff.
Old soldier
October 28th, 2010 6:15pm Report this commentI support the views of Ian Walker.I voted for the common market as a means of giving us a level playing field when it comes to exports.I did not want that to extend any further.Over the years our country has been stolen from us and we have been denied a referendum because the answer will be a most emphatic no.Those of you who support the EU have behaved like thieves because you are content to carry on denying us our rights without putting forward your reasons as to why we should support it.If it is so obvious then enlighten us please.It isn't obvious to me and i expect millions of others.I await your reply.
Tony Cook
October 28th, 2010 6:50pm Report this commentRe Ian Walker:
Its funny Ian, a free trade area is what I was told I was voting for.
Heath: "This will not affect Britain's national sovereignty", just the first of a long string of lies told by successive generations of fat cat politicians.
A referendum on future changes? I'll believe it when I see it, maybe.
Yow Min Lye
October 28th, 2010 7:43pm Report this commentHere we go again. You do me a deal on this item and I'll cut you some slack on that one.
Isn't that how Britain entered the EU with a quid in its pocket in 1973 and has about 12p left today (or how we lost European's largest fishing fleet and a good deal more besides)?
Negotiation and horse-trading is a slippery slope on which Britain invariably slithers ever downward. The only way to confront this beast is to say 'you ain't having no more money - period'.
Sir Graphus
October 28th, 2010 9:31pm Report this commentThe fact that (a) we're broke b) the British people are seriously cheesed off with Europe and (c) the EU would be really stumped without us, really ought to be a decent set of cards for any negotiation.
Boudicca
October 28th, 2010 10:29pm Report this commentA better way forward for Cameron is to horse trade on the EU budget and possible Treaty change separately.
__________________
Actually, the better way forward is for Cameron to simply tell the EU there will be NO increase in the UK's contribution to the EU and a Referendum will be held on our continued membership.
Anything else is just kow-towing to the Politburo.
Boudicca
October 28th, 2010 10:33pm Report this comment"Verity has serious problems."
Wrong. Verity is absolutely correct (but it doesn't suit the EU Politburo).
Verity
October 28th, 2010 11:50pm Report this commentI'm sorry that above, when I suggested popping the cork on a bottle of Champers, adding a sixth point to Ian Walker's five, I specified California or Chile.
I apologise for leaving our good friends and allies in the Anglosphere, Australia out. They make some fine very fine wines of all kinds.
My point was, who needs the French? Here in Mexico, I can buy an excellent Brie and a very fine Camembert. What is more, they call them Brie and Camembert, because they're a free country and can call cheese anything they damn' well feel like.
Colin Cumner
October 29th, 2010 5:16am Report this commentThe European Union, like the United Nations, began with lofty and admirable aims but now is nothing more than a collection of bureaucrats enjoying the high life at the expense of the member nations. With Britain up against the wall economically, pouring even more money into this sham of a political body is downright lunancy, yet will Cameron have the balls to defy this latest edict of the E.U. ? Will he buggery - he's no more a Conservative than I am Tom Cruise. Norman Tebbit's has more guts in his little finger than can be found in Cameron's entire body. Get it into your head, Dave, the vast majority of the British people don't want us in the E.U. any more just as they don't want the insidious Islamification of the United Kingdom.
Colin Cumner
October 29th, 2010 7:06am Report this commentCameron must put his listening ears on - there is now a sizeable majority of the British population who want the UK out of the EU - and with good reason, too, in my opinion. Act like a true blue Conservative, Dave, otherwise you're out next time elections come around.
Simon
October 29th, 2010 8:44am Report this commentFacepalm.....
stephen bennetts
October 29th, 2010 2:48pm Report this commentThe EU is out of control and the sooner we can get out the better ! Cameron says he has won something out of the budget talks ? can he or anyone explain to me where the £450 million extra we are going to pay is coming from ? Sorry Cameron its a shambles, UKIP are the only party left for people like me who are fed up with the EU to support.
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