In international politics, the pursuit of stability is not enough
Daniel Korski 4:59pm
One of the biggest challenges facing the post-Iraq generation of foreign policy
decision-makers, like William Hague and Hillary Clinton, is to balance the pursuit of overseas stability with promotion of the dynamic and sometimes de-stabilising forces that build countries'
long-term stability and make economic and political progress possible.
This may sound like an academic question but it is a very real change- and not just because the SDSR has made the task of building overseas stability a key government objective.
Take Iraq. After having lost an admirably violence-free and largely fair election, it looks likely that Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki will cling to power and the voter-winner, Ayad Allawi, will be denied a role in government.
If that happens it will be because the US (and Iran) wanted al-Maliki to stay in power, favouring stability that the Iraqi leader has managed to create. His close associates are briefing that he will try to remain in power for the next thirty years, reliant on Tehran's support as US influence wanes. Over time, al-Maliki's undemocratic path to power and his authoritarian instincts will help spawn a new generation of opposition, much of which is likely to be violent. The stability that the US (and UK) hopes to gain in the short-term will, in other words, lead to long-term instability.
There are many similar examples - Hamid Karzai is an obvious one. In each case the UK has a choice to make, and it will be tempted to favour a short-term perspective if it can get troops home, costs down and maintain strong counter-terrorism cooperation. Those who could act as a counterweight to this short-termism, the neo-conservatives in the Conservative Party, are either bogged down by departmental business, boxed in by the coalition with the Liberals - or do not have a seat on the NSC.
As William Hague tours the Middle East, he will hopefully see first hand how important it is to balance short-term strategic aims with the sometimes unpredictable but necessary forces of democracy.
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strapworld
November 3rd, 2010 5:05pm Report this commentWilliam Hague has proved to be a major disapointment. David Laws should replace him immediately and allow the Yorkshire beer drinker to return to the North to write his books and retire from politics.
TomTom
November 3rd, 2010 5:43pm Report this comment"allow the Yorkshire beer drinker to return to the North"
You keep him. Outside Richmond noone takes him seriously. He is a career politician and owes everything to Norman Blackwell.
Hague is a lightweight
Jez
November 3rd, 2010 6:10pm Report this commentSo a William Hague 'no vote' from you then eh, strapworld.
His biggest moment was that first foreign office speech he did shortly after the Tories jumbled the coalition together. Half an hour to say;
"We'll speed up and crash the Turks into the EU"
Ace.
(Let's just say William comes from a different sort of Yorkshire that the most of us do)
TrevorsDen
November 3rd, 2010 8:27pm Report this commentWhat a bozo Strapworld (et al) -
replace a right wing traditional conservative with a liberal. Yeah good idea!
Just how would suddenly having Laws as Foreign Sec change anything? How would having Laws trimming his policy to finesse the Liberal Democratic party help in any way to pursue the loony tune foreign policy you favour?
The fact that thicko Jez agrees with you should be a hint Strapworld.
strapworld
November 3rd, 2010 8:51pm Report this commentTell me, Trevors Den- or Mr Pickles!- please define 'a right wing traditional conservative'
Then tell me, exactly what Hague has done, in government, that conforms with that description.
I thought he was of stronger stuff. But he has failed us on the EU, failed us on Afghanistan and is more Liberal than Cameron!
He has been telling porkies.
Laws would bring a more realistic Liberal viewpoint, I accept, but as this government is controlled by the Liberal Democrats- they are running rings round the conservatives it appears to me!- it would be far more transparent.
I do not care who supports me or not. I do not go around like a bulldozer, as you do, insulting everyone and anyone.
I think you should talk to matron and ask for more medication!
TrevorsDen
November 3rd, 2010 9:52pm Report this commentMr Strapworld - he has not failed us on the EU and he has not failed us on Afghanistan.
The limit to the EU budget was all we could expect; its hardly a disaster on the lines of Blair giving away our rebates and vetoes.
Frankly (and admittedly its the older I get) I could not give a monkey's about the EU. Our own civil servants are a greater enemy.
I will not say or do anything to encourage the return of a Labour govt which would only successfully complete its ruination of Britain if elected.
Immigration from the EU is what will ruin our attempts to get Britons off benefits. That is where I despair. This govt wants to help I think - why not make some sane suggestions that would work in the real world?
I cannot even begin to think about how he has failed us on Afghanistan.
We have recognised that we have far far too few troops in Afghanistan for the work we have committed to and we have mercifully handed over Sangin to the USA. The long term commitment of Obama to Afghanistan is dubious to say the least; the authority/morality of Kazi is suspect and we have given the strongest hint that there is a limit to what we can do and announced we hope to remove our main fighting troops after 2015 having trained the Afghan army.
For this we should all sigh with relief.
BTW
In international politics the pursuit of alliances is what is important.
Jez
November 3rd, 2010 10:32pm Report this commentHa Ha Ha Haaaaa!!!
TrevorsDen, the epitome of sarcastic humour.
'Thicko Jez'.... i might get that as a number plate for my 'Y' reg gold coloured Capri, you know with the furry dice in it; 'TH1C40 J32'.
Anyway, let's get back to business (once i've pulled myself together after that bewt from TD (and the rest).
TD, if you just step back from your superciliousness for just one moment and join the rest of us mere mortals out here, you'll actually notice i hadn't 'agreed' with anyone specifically within this thread.
You. Dick.
I do agree with Korski's final paragraph.
But unfortunately, with that endorsement i may have ultimately condemned it to the dustbin of Thicko opinion.
TrevorsDen
November 3rd, 2010 11:12pm Report this commentSadly 2(ish) words do sum you up jez. You're thick.
Are you now trying to say you did not 'agree' with Mr Straps condemnation of Hague? Despite my own success with you, don't make me laugh.
As for what Korski says, well Harold Wilson would have put him down with one (definite) word - 'pragmatism'. For all the democratic ambitions we have in the middle east we are still dealing with infant semi medieval societies.
Korski does not even understand the definition of neo-conservatives.
Jez
November 4th, 2010 8:47am Report this commentMorning TD.
Just what is it that you're finding confusing here?
At no point have i said that "i disagree" with anyone on this thread / blog.
Read the words.
Anyway, got to go..... getting prepped for my first appearance on this mornings 'Jeremy Kyle' show. The theme this morning is titled;
'Whats worse- Thicko's or right big Fatso's'.
...... ok, where's my shell-suit?
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DavidDP
November 4th, 2010 9:34am Report this comment"please define 'a right wing traditional conservative'"
Hmm, pro-Europe, like Thatcher and MacMillan?
TrevorsDen
November 4th, 2010 12:30pm Report this commentDavid DP - Hague is an ordinary typical conservative, on the right of the party. Whats so tough about that.
In his first post jez says he has not agreed with anybody and in his latest says he has not disagreed. Its plain he supports Mr Straps abuse of Hague. Such rhetoric is simple minded.
Jez
November 4th, 2010 3:10pm Report this commentCalm down TD, old chap. You'll do yourself a mischief.
For the record;
Hague talks the talk- but so far anyway has not delivered. At all.
The coalition has really attempted to come to terms with the public spending debacle.
Immigration hasn't been touched. They'll try but the liberal machine that is the media, will regurgitate irrational arguments- like the ones seen on Newsnight yesterday that people will die of cancer in higher numbers due to the prospective cut in Pakistani / Bangladeshi / Nigerian immigrants ('et al').
The defence review was a bit of a rock and a hard place for Fox & Co.- and concluded worringly with a mix and match of key assets with other sovereign nations.
The EU- the lot of the coalition want firing over this..... only as an opinion though, Trev.
A bit of a narrow thick view of it, yes i know but chill man, chill.
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