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Sunday, 14th November 2010

IDS shows how arguments are won

Fraser Nelson 10:44am

For years, I have complained that the Conservatives have timidly stayed within Labour’s intellectual parameters, arguing that they need “permission” to make certain arguments and need to stay within the limits of what the public find acceptable. Such intellectual timidity confined them to opposition: they can never win, playing by Labour rules. Iain Duncan Smith is breaking free of this. It may be rash to predict it now, but I believe he is on the brink of a breakthrough in the way that welfare is regarded in Britain. This victory in a battle of ideas could be the greatest single blow against poverty in a generation. The extent of this was crystallised by Polly Toynbee in the Guardian yesterday.
 
“The government may be winning the war of words,” she opens – as if. It is true that IDS is very good at explaining his agenda, but not because he’s a spinmeister. It’s because he has devoted the last five years of his life to the cause, and wants to reform welfare or die trying. It’s his sole concern. But words? He used the word “sin” the other day – Madeline Bunting detected that he might exposed himself as a Christian and launched into one of those secular inquisitions that the Guardian specialises in.  It was not the best word to use, but at least spoke about the depth of his conviction. Even Alan Johnson told The Times (£) that “IDS has no ambition anymore, he just wants to do the right thing”. What enrages Toynbee about IDS is that no one – not even the Shadow Chancellor – doubts his sincerity.
 
We should perhaps pause here, to remember that before the election Theresa May was set to take charge of the welfare brief. I mean no disrespect to her by saying that she would not have had the same impact. Moving IDS to this role was Osborne’s decision, and one made possible by coalition. We have the right man in the right job at the right time – and Toynbee hates it.
 
“People take at face value the ‘greatest reform since Beveridge’" she says – perhaps she can name a greater one. IDS proposes replacing the a complex patchwork of benefits with a Universal Credit based on the principle that all work must pay. It is the complete rewriting of the UK benefits system. I can’t quite remember that happening since the tri-party welfare state (Tories did education, Labour did health, Liberals did social security, and Churchill commissioned Beveridge in the first place – a point often erased from Labour lore, where Attlee is credited with the whole shebang).
 
“Polls showed unsurprising support for the plans. Who doesn’t want to ‘reward work and support the vulnerable’” How Toynbee must have hated typing those words. But she’s right – a YouGov poll for Channel Four showed 68% support capping housing benefit at £400 a week, “even if this means people are forced to move house if they live in an area where the rent is high”. So the population do not share her indignation.

“If it was that easy, why wouldn’t the big and equally tough brains of previous DWP secretaries have done it?” No one is saying it’s easy. It’s the toughest job in politics – but the wheels turn slowly. John Hutton and James Purnell gave it their all, but the DWP controls more lives than East Germany did and this is Glasnost. Blair saw the need for it, inspired by the Clinton/Gingrich reforms, but gave up as soon as the disabled started chaining themselves to the railings of parliament. The year after, Brown delivered his now-notorious Rowntree lecture, defining poverty as a massive spreadsheet exercise with the IFS as judge and jury, and welfare reform was dropped. The failings of the system were apparent only after the current system, where we see immigration accounting for 99 percent (not 70 percent as IDS said) of all working-age jobs created under Labour.
 
Toynbee continues: “IDS hammered Labour for the way claimants lose so much benefit when they earn more, so what is his reform? For the great majority, instead of keeping 30p for every extra pound earned, they can keep 35p. Is 5p a clincher?” Is this the best she can do to misrepresent IDS plans? What they propose to do is best illustrated in a graph which Pete Hoskin produced in his neat summary of the IDS White Paper:


 
But what heartens me most is to hear Toynbee charge Labour with the offence that I charged the Tories with: accepting the premises of their opponents. “Labour is falling into the traps, it accepts the principles IDS lays out because they are the aim of all good welfare – to urge all into work, while protecting the weak.” But Labour has no competing idea. For the first time in years, the Tories have engaged in a battle of ideas – and are winning the argument. Winning over the public. Arguing that they are the new workers’ party, that we can’t afford to keep five million on benefits and it’s hard to say there are no jobs while immigrants are taking them at the rate of 1,580 a day (and that’s even in Q2 of 2010)
 
This is how you remould politics. It’s not a tactical trick, it’s not spin, it’s not populism. IDS is not trying to play political chess. He is advancing an agenda that he believes in with all his heart – and the public are willing to give him a try. Labour is intellectually exhausted, and Toynbee knows it. The result is the best chance we’ve had in a generation to make British poverty history.

Filed under: Benefits (159 more articles) , Coalition (2088 more articles) , Conservatives (2311 more articles) , Economy (1021 more articles) , Employment (149 more articles) , Iain Duncan Smith (148 more articles) , Labour (2142 more articles) , Polly Toynbee (8 more articles) , UK politics (5405 more articles) , Welfare (256 more articles)

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Comments Post comment

Sally Chatterjee

November 14th, 2010 11:05am Report this comment

About time. It's a shame it has taken a giant deficit and more to force Britain to confront the problems of millions living on welfare.

Rhoda Klapp

November 14th, 2010 11:12am Report this comment

It's not Labour who give or deny permission for a different approach. It is the media left-of-centre consensus who dominate political debate in this country. In short, it is you, Fraser, and all those comfy mates you agree to disagree with in your cosy bubble world. That is why posters and commenters alike here are full of opinions that this that or the other thing is politically impossible, even though that thing might be supported by more than half of the electorate. I might have mentioned my list a few hundred times, so I won't go there this time, but I will recall to mind the selection of Cameron as leader of the tories BECAUSE he was the BBC candidate and only at that ponit was the Beeb willing to begin that nonsense called "the decontamination of the tory brand". And now you worry more about what Toynbee thinks, always wrong, always irrelevant, than you do about polls showing that ordinary people have been thinking it all along.

Now how about trying to redress the situation? Tackling the BBC on its partiality? Investigating the truth about question time audiences and the selection method. Calling it out when debate is circumscribed. What's that, the Barclays don't fancy it? Fair enough, let's carry on with the farce.

JR

November 14th, 2010 11:25am Report this comment

Personally I think Labour should focus on the demand side of things - no one can quite understand the economic policy behind the Government and that is a real problem - not even the Ministers involved. None of those with economics degrees buy the crowding in/out stuff and although there is hope of a private sector led recovery it's started hitting home how much of the private economy relies on public contracts thus making the transition harder.

Anyhow these are excellent supply side changes but there appears to be something approaching a collective loss of nerve behind the scenes on the political side about HB and ESA reforms.

Simon HB

November 14th, 2010 11:28am Report this comment

Fraser, interesting little graph you have there. I notice it's for a lone parent with "no childcare costs". In other words: completely meaningless.

strapworld

November 14th, 2010 11:54am Report this comment

Why should we christians be on the defensive?

WHY Mr Nelson, is IDS wrong to utter the word 'Sin'. It is a sin and he was right to say it.

With your reluctance to write anything following the Neather revelations on immigration, now this on christianity, or faith, is this yet another NO NO for you people?

It is time we christians spoke up for decency and remind these sloths that their time on our backs is well and truly over!

Nicholas

November 14th, 2010 12:23pm Report this comment

Rhoda Klapp - the sound of klapping, mine, for your excellent post.

The last paragraph with its plea for the search for truth in journalism is nothing short of bang on target. As long as there are politically correct no-go areas, a conspiracy of consensus on what socialist code must be pandered to in order to avoid denunciation (or even arrest) and a cosy assumption that the bien pensant elite view is shared by the majority there will be no real freedom, no liberation and no truth. We live in a country smothered by propaganda and the intimidation of free speech by a minority of socialist busybodies. And we need someone to break it open, to call a spade a spade and to dare the brain-dead apostles of the socialist suborned press to rave and rant to no purpose.

Hugo Chav

November 14th, 2010 12:34pm Report this comment

The communists (tax & spend) brigade who have given us a rotten social fabric are in retreat because joe & jane public can see that their ideas are failing. Like you say Fraser, the Tories must reset the narrative, change the discourse with new ideas, simple solutions all couched in common language.

The communist protesters who smashed up Millbank last week should be tarred with the "communist" label. I phoned the NUS and asked where the money was to come from for free uni, whilst Greece and Ireland go bust and we print money, the NUS official had no answer.

The argument must be taken to the commmunists so the people can see that the communists are wrong and a better future can be built with Conservative & Liberal ideas.

"A communist is someone who has nothing but wants to share it with you."

Chris

November 14th, 2010 12:43pm Report this comment

Being boring is a sin, Strapon. Do stop banging on about Neather, there's a good dildo.

mongoose

November 14th, 2010 12:51pm Report this comment

The need for a root and branch reform of welfare has been clear to most people for at least a couple of decades. Labour's fear of overturning the applecart because there would be "losers" disqualifies their opinions on this issue. But I'm not yet convinced that the Conservatives have shaken off "Labour's intellectual parameters". You rightly scorn Brown's pretence that manipulation of a spreadsheet lifts families out of poverty, but shifting the focus from one point in the distribution of income to the supposed changes in all the deciles is just a more elaborate spreadsheet exercise. The guiding precept for the new policy relates to changing the perverse incentives in the system, and these fancier spreadsheets do not capture that so-called dynamic effect. We should be continuously reminded about what has actually happened elsewhere, e.g. in Wisconsin. The point is that the distribution of income itself changes when the right incentives are in place.

Magnolia

November 14th, 2010 12:56pm Report this comment

The revolution of the speed up of the evolution of ideas and thought that has been enabled by the internet has changed politics forever.
IDS is gaining traction because he is the best at the moment and the people are cottoning on quick because they now have free access to ideas.
Good ideas are catching in the same way that hotcakes sell fast.
The plodding Prime Minister is yesterday's man and it shows. I groan when he gives us his little trite pep talks and I switch off mentally just as I used to for Mr Brown but I do accept that he is charming and has lovely manners and looks good and that's nice for international affairs.
But the public are moving ahead faster and they know that Labour's rule was decadent and that's why the new government has to be 'decent' and so the use of words such as sin will be acceptable in future.
This also means that any little deceptions, hypocrisy or double standards will have a magnified effect. We will also start to look on people who do a swift about turn with pleasure rather than contempt because they will be showing that they can keep up if they go wrong at first.
I honestly think the Channel Four programme 'Britain's trillion pound horror story' was a game changer. They have decided that the BBC way isn't the future and they've got in first. They have evolved. IDS has evolved but the question is can the rest of the government follow the true leader and up their game to catch up?

ollie

November 14th, 2010 1:09pm Report this comment

Toynbee does not give a toss about poverty - what she does care about is unflinching, deep-rooted left wing tribalism. She represenst everything that is rotten with political discourse in this country.

Tapestry

November 14th, 2010 1:11pm Report this comment

Cameron will pretend to be agreeing to IDS’ reforms and then find a way to frustrate them later. IDS provides protection for him from the eurosceptics, who he is deceiving at every turn. If he keeps IDS on as a token saint, he can keep any rebellion down from Party supporters, who don’t trust him, but who trust IDS.

Cameron’s agenda is otherwise - to accelerate the absorption of Britain into the EU as fast as he can, after which he can move up to a lucrative and influential position within the One World Government, like Blair. Clegg too is playing exactly the same game.

http://the-tap.blogspot.com/2010/11/jfk-warned-world-it-was-being-taken.html

It is a key part of OWG policy to to remove fathers from families, get mothers out to work, and get the kids into school where they can be indoctrinated. They don’t want people supporting themselves and nurturing ideas of independence. See what JFK had to say three weeks before he was assassinated.

Tiberius

November 14th, 2010 1:29pm Report this comment

I'm not sure, Fraser, quite what argument you are trying to make in your first paragraph. Which years do you mean? Since Cameron is PM after his first GE, I can only presume you mean 2001 to 2005.

In which case you have it back to front. William Hague and Michael Howard (with IDS sandwiched in between) kept the Tories in opposition because they tried to argue against established Labour parameters.

It has taken Cameroon politics, which departs from that confrontational approach to New Labour policy (as nuts as it is, it won three elections) to give IDS the opportunity to institute these reforms so welcomed by so many of us.

libertarian

November 14th, 2010 1:50pm Report this comment

@JR

You said "how much the private sector relies on public contracts"

I don't know who told you that, but down here in SE England, nothing could be further from the truth. Of the 56,000 small businesses in this area 84% have either NO business with the public sector at all or less than 10% of their revenues.

I do wish people would stop making up arguments

libertarian

November 14th, 2010 2:03pm Report this comment

@Rhoda

Once again a nail firmly hit by your post, thank you for articulating my thoughts far better than I could.

The working class ( amongst whose number I count myself) are fully aware that politicians and their media partners of ALL parties have tried to subjugate us for years.

They removed our democratic rights by moving the seat of government to Brussels, whilst enabling thousands more full time local politicians to invade our privacy, they closed our grammar schools, lied about the value of University education, took away our jobs and handed them to immigrant workers and replaced them with benefits, dissuaded us from becoming self employed and when we got around that by forming one person ltd companies they outlawed that with IR35 legislation. They do this is in the name of "fairness", "justice" and "progress", all in fact spin for subjugation, denial of freedom and regression to a feudal type system.

yank

November 14th, 2010 2:44pm Report this comment

Well, R.K. and Nicholas have it pegged here, Mr. Nelson. Until you all on that pile of rocks commit yourselves to the freedom of speech, such articles as yours here will stand out as slavemasters granting the enslaved temporary leave from the plantation... yes, massa.

And that isn't hyperbole, unlike the Spectator's "Cold War" nonsense. The freedom of speech is as cherished as physical freedom. To steal one is to steal the other. Silence is sanction for this.

And a perverse use of the language is to steal freedom and liberty. Bad enough that the statists would be granted a megaphone, funded by the general public. But for you and the rest to circumscribe your own and everyone else's speech is unforgivable.

The Spectator contributes to these rhetorical perversions with such as your reference to "Cold War". It isn't just the political correctness maintained across these pages, it's your loose usage of the language that jumps out.

Paddy

November 14th, 2010 3:11pm Report this comment

Ian Duncan Smith comes across as a most genuine intelligent, caring man.

It's not "rocket science".

He is simply telling the truth.

To quote the man "the games up".

People like honesty no matter what.

Fergus Pickering

November 14th, 2010 3:24pm Report this comment

Tapestry, you can't really believe that balls, can you? Have you a shred of evidence for it? No, I didn't think so. A Cameron who was like that makes no sense at all. Why would he want to do what you say he wants to do? For money? He's got money. For kudos? That would bring him nothing but opprobrium. Try and be a bit grown up, please, and give us a scenario that might make a third rate novel at least. Even Archer would pass that one by.

Chuck Unsworth

November 14th, 2010 3:32pm Report this comment

"Labour is intellectually exhausted, and Toynbee knows it."

I'm not convinced that Toynbee knows anything at all. She may secretly fear that Labour is a busted flush, but she's spent so many years supporting this house of cards and knows nothing else.

How many times has La Toynbee veered from one side to the other? Countless. She's an opportunist who has run out of opportunities. She mistakes vociferous assertion for real debate. There's no intellectual strength in any of her clamouring. There's not even any understanding of the real world. Her 'views' are mere distraction.

It is time that she and her idiotic husband took the hint and retired to their Tuscan idyl, leaving the rest of us to clear up the Augean mess left behind by her heroes.

HJ

November 14th, 2010 3:56pm Report this comment

Toynbee wants to keep the poor poor so that she can self-righteously pretend that she is defending their interests. If they ever got the idea that they had the opportunity to improve their own prospects, given the right conditions, then why would they need her? She would have no purpose in life.

Paul Kearns

November 14th, 2010 4:06pm Report this comment

Toynbee would rather chew her own tongue off that give honest credit to a good idea, is the lady now for turning? The previous Labour government lacked the courage to make real reforms - sadly it takes an economic meltdown for the population to realise that some people are getting it easy while others (usually those in work) are struggling to keep it together. Benefit reform is a must - but it does take a long time because despite what people think, these changes are thought through, analysed, tested and then reshaped before being implemented. Let's not forget that at some point in everyone's life they will have some dealings with the DWP. You may as well get it right.

John Moss

November 14th, 2010 4:39pm Report this comment

It is intersting that Labour get credit for the Welfare State when its two main planks were devised by two Liberals at the behest of a Conservative. (Butler, Beveridge and Churchil, respectively).

It is however correct that the dreadful outcomes in health and education are largely the responsibility of Labour.

They ignored Beveridge's contributory insurance plan to fund healthcare, provided largely by independent health professionals, and they traduced Butler's '44 Education Act by never implimenting the Technical School bit of Butler's plan, leaving just Secondary Modern and Grammar Schools, the latter which they hated and ultimately destroyed following Crosland's lead.

To see how Beveridge abd Butler's ideas might have worked out one needs to go to Germany, where in the new West Germany, British civil servants implimented their blueprints for healthcare and education after WW2.

The rest, as they say, is history, but it is informative that following unification, Western Germany did not revert to NHS style healthcare or comprehensive education as practised in Eastern Germany. I wonder why?

normanc

November 14th, 2010 4:55pm Report this comment

Let's hope for a quick and painless death for the word 'progressive' in the near future.

Marcher Baron

November 14th, 2010 6:49pm Report this comment

Even Beveridge acknowledged that benefits should be time limited to prevent people falling into idleness as a way of life. These reforms are long overdue.

Tom Freeman

November 14th, 2010 7:02pm Report this comment

You're slightly misquoting her.

She didn't say: "Labour is falling into the traps..." She said: "Labour is falling into no traps: it accepts the principles Duncan Smith lays out because they are the aim of all good welfare – to urge all into work while protecting the weak."

These general principles are the motherhood and apple pie of welfare, even in the eyes of (most of) the Labour party.

daniel maris

November 14th, 2010 9:48pm Report this comment

IDS is certainly on the right track, but where these plans fall down is in the lack of a guarantee of work being available.

I am afraid I don't accept the premise that a society such as our is incapable of finding work for people who would otherwise be unemployed.

There is plenty of productive employment that could be provided.

For instance there is no reason why the state shouldn't organise employment for people to (a) guard churches in order that they can be kept open during the day - this would be a wonderful contribution to our cultural life and (b) provide information kiosks in town centres offering directions, and other useful services.

There are probably lots of other useful activities which could be pursued e.g. coastline protection, clearance of rubbish from rivers and streams and so on.

TGF UKIP

November 14th, 2010 10:11pm Report this comment

Tiberius, you have been getting away with your favoured piece of sophistry for far tool long.

As you well know there was a world of difference between not only the political climate in which the elections of 2001 and 2005 were fought but also between the Labour Party and its leadership in those years and that of 2010.

The failure to win against the most discredited government headed by the most disliked and derided leader, was massive and due in large part to the unconvincing leadershship of the Tory Party as so many polls made clear.

B0YC0TT

November 14th, 2010 11:10pm Report this comment

"The failings of the system were apparent only after the current system, where we see immigration accounting for 99 percent (not 70 percent as IDS said) of all working-age jobs created under Labour."

Dp you mean PRIVATE sector jobs? In any case, please could you link to the source?

Major Plonquer 1

November 15th, 2010 3:00am Report this comment

I agree with yank. Moreover, I find it unacceptable that we British need to be educated about our use of of own language by a mere colonial.

There was a time when the English language, like Brittania, 'ruled the waves'. Now it appears we simply wave the rules.

anxiouswarrior

November 15th, 2010 8:17am Report this comment

the only thing that needs reforming in this country is the disgusting behaviour of the banks the, square mile , the right wing press owned by foriegn milionaires and the rest of the free market shite thats polluted this country

Ross J Warren

November 15th, 2010 9:06am Report this comment

Rather than an argument won, we would be better served by admitting that this is a discussion started. The Universal Credit as it stands is nothing more than a cheap sound byte. Are we really going to condemn our sick and disabled to life long poverty?

Rather than a universal benefit we would be far better off with proper bread laws. Frankly as a Conservative I am pleased to see a start at rationalistic reappraisal of the benefits system, but if we think the battle is over then we are as big fools as IDS always appears.

TGF UKIP

November 15th, 2010 10:59am Report this comment

Rhoda et al, Fraser was long ago co-opted. Just think of how much of his total annual income stems not just from BBC appearance fees but from all his BBC appearances acting as promotional videos and audios for brand Nelson.

Were it not for his broadcasting omnipresence, what serious prospect would there have been of Rupert giving the editor of the Spectator his own page in the News of the World every week?

No chance of Fraser rocking the Village boat, I'm afraid.

Pettros

November 15th, 2010 2:02pm Report this comment

What everybody must remember when they read this is Mr Nelson writes for the News of the World. His articles are as full of half-truths as the average Cheryl Cole story. I mean that final 99% figure. where is that from!?

uk Fred

November 15th, 2010 4:17pm Report this comment

This is the first time since the 1970s that the Conservatives have been winning the battle of ideas. Partly, I believe because they were too timid under John Major to go on the offensive , or too worn out by the efforts of putting the ideas of the previous 10 to 20 years into practice in Government.

While IDS' ideas are the fruits of a dedication to the cause of reform of welfare to bring about improvements for all the people, the fact that CMD has closed down the ideas factories within the Conservative Party will be the cause of a paucity of ideas in the future.

Tiberius

November 15th, 2010 4:28pm Report this comment

It's not sophistry, TGF. Rather, your view is jaundiced.

The 2001 and 2005 elections were fought under very different conditions, especially because of the Iraq war, but the Tories still lost both heavily.

Mr Spongea

November 16th, 2010 9:19am Report this comment

I just had to laugh last night when one of the BBC's Lefty rent-a-quotes, WillSelf, found himself having to agree that society has a pact with welfare dependents on Radio 4 - i.e that they should be "worthy/deserving" of support.

The concept that welfare is a covenant with your fellow citizens wherein those in work pay and those in receipt should be "deserving" had only just occurred to him. So much for being a deep thinker (perhaps in Leftist terms he is).

He actually understands now that recipients should be the sick, disabled, elderly and not work dodgers, spongers and layabouts. He actually "gets it" that work and self reliance are good things whilst stealing from your fellow citizen is bad.

They are calling it the New Morals.

It is in fact the old morals.

gareth

November 16th, 2010 1:03pm Report this comment

excellent Rhoda.

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