Coy Cleggites?
David Blackburn 6:13pm
In a must read post, Anthony Wells notes that there is a new variant of the Shy Tory and Bashful Blairite: the Coy Cleggite. Traditionally, ICM and Populus have allocated up to
50 percent of undecided respondents to the party they voted for at the last election. Wells writes:
‘Polls are now showing a large proportion of people who voted Lib Dem in 2010 saying they don’t know how they would vote in an election tomorrow, and ICM’s reallocation of don’t knows is now favouring them. In ICM’s last three polls the re-allocation of don’t knows has bumped up the level of Liberal Democrat support by 2 points – yesterday’s topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 38%, LDEM 14% were CON 37%, LAB 40%, LDEM 12% without the don’t knows.Naturally this leads us to the question of whether this is a sound thing to do. Certainly there is solid evidence to back up what ICM and Populus do. Re-contact polls after past elections always supported it, and ICM’s re-contact survey this time round found that about 50% of people who said don’t know in the pre-election polls did indeed end up voting for the same party they did in 2005. Equally, at past elections the adjustment has tended to make ICM’s figures more accurate. None of this guarantees it will still work in the future – the current political situation is rather unusual and these former Lib Dems may behave differently – but it’s a sound starting point.’
As ICM’s adjusted figures prove: Labour will benefit if current undecided Lib Dems don’t vote. But, as Nick Cohen points out, Clegg is the problem for many. Is it a case of Coy Cleggites or disgruntled social democrats?
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normanc
November 23rd, 2010 6:53pm Report this commentThat's 2 minutes of my life I'll never get back.
Holly ......
November 23rd, 2010 7:08pm Report this commentMeanwhile,back in the real world the home secretary tells Balls & Labour to shut up & sit down.
S h e h a d t o s p e a k v e r y s l o w l y a t o n e s t a g e,s o t h e m o r o n s
o p p o s i t e f i n a l y S T O P P E D a s k i n g t h e s a m e q u e s t i o n.
Listen very carefully,I will say this only once,will be a classic.
Now,instead of bigging up Ed gonk of the Labourzoids,telling us how'underestimated' he is....have a gander at the underestimated
May.
After all the Labour home secretaries who had no idea how to deal with this department
it would appear May is taking it in her stride.
Whoever is doing the 'leaking' to the BBC I
hope you are sacked!
Funny how Gove had the same problem when Balls was at that department as well.
TrevorsDen
November 23rd, 2010 8:25pm Report this commentThe polls are reflecting the genuine level of support for the LD tendency in the country. That is a centre left tendency.
The lefty loonies moving back to Labour are putting them firmly back in the left (and far left) of centre. The more they influence Labour the more they make them unelectable.
The big question is will this lead to a broad right/centre-left coalition. The mirror image of the type that labour has spent the last 13 years plotting.
Rightists and especially loony rightists will no doubt scream blue murder, but what will they prefer labour in power or labour in opposition?
Can Clegg make the mix of Conservative Liberalism attractive to the electorate? Do 'Liberals' want a return of Labour?
BTW ...
YouGov gave it 42 - 38 to Tories last night.
The coalition lead by 15. Basically the nation is massively behind the coalition parties.
I just hope the Unions and Labour continue to smear and attack the LibDems. Brilliant.
Pettros
November 24th, 2010 10:48am Report this commentTrevorsDen is very on-message as usual. Quick to grasp a Yougov poll today, conveniantley forgetting an ICM Poll yesterday.
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