The great what-if

Tiberius

It's a non-issue to me, Peter, because I don't believe Brown would have won the election, and, seemingly, neither did he. Was it Lord Levy who was quoted recently as saying Brown couldn't beat Cameron in a GE? Strictly speaking, we could be have been talking about a hung Parliament rather than a Cameron majority, but Brown simply didn't fancy losing his majority.

Napoleon

What if Brown had called the election and, as the polls indicated, the Labour majority was reduced? Then things could be pretty worse now for him. People would complain that he went to the country too early, that his vanity made him do this(because he wanted his own mandate),and more, maybe the Lab Party knowing that they would only need to go to the country later, they would change the PM, a new parliament, a new PM. But we will never know!

Faceless Bureaucrat

Brown's missed opportunity in October was his 'Callaghan Moment' - history teaches us how this endgame will be played out...

Dave B

I don't see why the Conservatives wouldn't have won such an election. Labour are not a popular gov't, they 'won' the last general election with 36% of the vote, on a very low turnout.

I think a six week election campaign would have been long enough for the Conservatives to drum up the necessary support to win.

It's worth noting that Labour adopted welfare reform as well as inheritance tax from the Conservatives after calling off the election. They can't/won't adopt Conservative education policy, but all of these would, in my opinion, have been vote winners for the Conservatives.

A Theologian

What might have been and what has been always point to one end, which is always present.

TS Eliot Burnt Norton

But Boris affirming the eternal coexistence of the old and new Boris in the formula of the Nicene creed in greek on Radio 4. Priceless. Homohumerous!

Steve Garner

The Brown bounce was overrated as could be seen from the way it quickly came to ground. The underlying trend has been towards the Tories more or less since Cameron won the leadership. The result of an election last October would have been a hung parliament with Labour just the largest party. Brown did not make a mistake in October. He knew he would not win an overall majority.

steve

My feeling is that Brown would have won a narrow, Majoresque majority, and we all know how that played out. We would probably be roughly where we are now but with a general election not until 2012, rather than 2010 (I would put good money on Brown clinging on until the last possible moment)

Michael

What about Scotland? No one ever seems to mention the SNP lead over Labour. I think it would have played badly for Brown last October and would probably be worse for him now.

Lee Jakeman

Don't wish to sound like I'm "lecturing" but I gave up indulging in "what if" scenarios years ago. Let's stick to realities and look forwards rather than backwards.

Michael Huntsman

Surely the reduction of the 'basic rate' of income tax to 20% was part of Brown already planning for an autumn 2007 election. In that scenario it was the sweetener to the middle classes designed to keep them on board the New Labour project (Mark II). The abolition of the 10% Lower Rate would not then have figured as it had not yet kicked in.

In the event McStalin ducked the election because he is a gutless yellow coward and in April 20008 the pigeons came home to roost, all 5.3 million of them.

If he had kept his nerve and then won the subsequent election, no labour MP would have worried too much about it because its effect would have been forgotten by the election of 2011.

That was in part why tried to bury the abolition of the 10% rate: the only TV pictures we would have seen would have been of McStalin producing the 20% rabbit out of the hat to applause all round, and Blair's approbatory pat on the arm.

I think the abolition of the 10% rate and the aborted election will be seen as the seminal events of the failed Brown administration.

Harry

Surely the biggest reason that Labour didn't call the election was that there was no way it could have paid for the campaign. Witness Pitt-Watson's reluctance to act as party secretary.

woodchopper

There is another what if - Brown could have dismissed any talk of an early election at the end of the summer 2007. Other chickens would have come home to roost, but the enormous knock to his credability wouldn't have occurred. We would probably still be talking about his firm hand on the tiller during choppy global waters. (Even if some people didn't like the direction he was heading). Instead he created an impression of dithering from which he will probably never escape.

John

I agree. Journos, media spinners and assorted hacks may not have seen it last autumn -- least of all the reality-deniers in the BBC and the Guardian -- but ALL the people I know were saying then that McBean is a contemptible joke of a PM and would never win an election, much less deserves to win one (and I include here people who used to be loyal Labour supporters). His mendacity, cowardice, bullying etc were very well known to the voters. His dishonest taxes, pension disasters and so on had not been forgotten, and all I was hearing was people keen to put the boot in.

John

I meant, since other posts have now intervened, that he would never have won in the autumn, no matter what. Sorry, Woodchopper.

TrevorH

The reason the election was 'called off' was tnhat the polls had shoew a massive turn around in Conservative support. he did not call an election because hew thought he might lose - which is a good reason.

The epiphany I think took place as Osborne announced they would cut inheritance tax. The huge mass of over-burdened middle Englkand rose up as one and said "YEEESSS !"

Danielle

One of the best assessments of last night came from the London School of Economics Tony Travers:

"Suburban England is falling back in love with the Conservative party - and that's a measure of the end of Blairism."

D. Menscher

What if the Labour Party had not given in to business pressure to let in cheap foreign labour in order to keep the working class IN poverty?

What if the Tories showed any intention of doing anything to change what Labour have done in the same respect?

What if the LibDems had the faintest idea of what the majority in the country need and deserve?

What if any party gave one glimmer of hope that they had any chance of making this country feel like a place to belong to, rather than an address for a profit and loss account?

What if we had a media that had any concern for, or interest in, matters beyond the Home Counties or for issues outside of those which form the middle-class horizon?

Then we might see an improvement in the numbers of those who could be bothered turning off the telly and going to vote.

Old Hack

TYou start with the assumption that Brown would have won. I'm not so sure.

A campaign would expose his weaknesses just as it is assumed that it would have exposed Conservative weaknesses.

Besides which, Labour was and is broke - not capable of fighting the Tories toe to toe.

Ian C

The envisaged hung parlaiment or smal but workable majority (max 20) would have been the most likely outcome as Cameron had only just turned it around. If it had been more than a 3 week campaign Cameron could have got the hung or very small maj. It would have been bad for the chance to be radical, whereas now there is a real chance to build to a real sea-change in the agenda of political and social life in Britain - per the 1980's but Phase 2: dealing with what government does v it should not do and spends/should not.

tawny

Another consideration is the boost that David Cameron's 'bring it on' bluff gave both him personally and the Conservative party, which kick started the rise in the poll numbers.