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Tuesday, 7th December 2010

Some framework for the prisons debate

Peter Hoskin 4:39pm

I thought that CoffeeHousers might appreciate a few graphs to steer them around the prisons debate. It's by no means a complete overview of the issue, but just three of the trends that hover over Ken Clarke's proposals:

1. Rising prison population, falling crime

Well, that's striking enough. Expect, as any fule know, correlation doesn't necessarily imply causation – which is to say, the fall in crime could be due to something other than the rise in prisoners. Some put it down to improving economic conditions. Others mention deterrents such as CCTV. But those correlations can barely be hardened into a cause, either. So, all rather inconclusive.

The Prison Works argument is strengthened, almost to the point of decisiveness, by the similar graphs that Civitas have produced for other countries. In many cases, falling crime is associated with rising prison populations, and vice versa. One particularly eye-catching example is provided by Italy, where crime spiked after a mass pardon of criminals in 2006.

In any case, it is the graph above – or at least the sentiment behind it – that I suspect will most resonate with the public. It captures what is, for many, an intuitive point: bang up criminals, and crime goes down.    

2. Reoffending rates

One of Ken Clarke's central arguments is that prisons currently operate a "revolving door" policy. Inmates leave custody, only to reoffend, and soon find themselves back in the clink. The following graph shows that, while it has decreased over the past few years, the reoffending rate is still worryingly high. 60 percent of former inmates go on to reoffend within two years of leaving custody. Reoffending rates are lower among those who serve community services, although, in theory, their crimes were less severe in the first place.

3. Prisons spending

And Ken Clarke's other argument is about the bottom line: we can't keep on pouring money into prisons at a time when there isn't much money to go around. This graph shows how prisons spending has risen over recent years:

Although it has actually fallen as a percentage of what the Home Office calls "public order and safety" spending, which also includes the police, etc:

The real question, though, is overall value. As Rod puts it in his post on all this: "the corollary might be that we haven’t got enough money NOT to lock people up, given the social and economic cost". And so it all comes back to whether prison works or not. I shall leave CoffeeHousers to make their own minds up.

Filed under: Coalition (2088 more articles) , Conservatives (2312 more articles) , Crime (260 more articles) , Ken Clarke (113 more articles) , Prison (91 more articles) , Public finances (753 more articles) , UK politics (5406 more articles)

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Comments Post comment

Simon Stephenson

December 7th, 2010 5:41pm Report this comment

"And so it all comes back to whether prison works or not."

Yes, it does as long as you account for all the outcomes of the change in policy, and not just the one(s) which give a favourable picture. But I suspect you are choosing to look at the effect of greater authoritarianism on criminals and their victims, and assuming that for the rest of us the change of policy won't make much difference either way.

There are some of us who believe that the collapse of considerate, unselfish civil behaviour is the consequence of too much authoritarianism, not too little.

Ray

December 7th, 2010 5:59pm Report this comment

According to US Department of Justice statistics, 85% of all young people in custody come from fatherless homes - twenty times the national average. Even in high crime neighbourhoods, 90% of children from stable two-parent homes where the father is involved in their lives do not become delinquents.

So perhaps if, as a nation, we put more resources into encouraging marriage and fidelity and generally bolstering family life we might not have so many criminals in need of locking up in the first place.

Ian Walker

December 7th, 2010 6:01pm Report this comment

We need to decide what we want from our prison system. Punishment, deterrence, vengeance, equity for vistims, human rights - all of these are factors.

However, the debate always gets framed in terms of the pet topic of whoever is speaking. We need to, as a nation, decide what we want from a 21st century justice system, and then work towards that in law.

Nicholas

December 7th, 2010 6:53pm Report this comment

" . . the fall in crime could be due to something other than the rise in prisoners."

Yes, like the massaging of the way the stats are calculated begun by New Labour and continued by their police chums, or the fact that so many crimes go unreported because of lack of confidence in the police or the fear of arrest (e.g. reporting criminal damage to private property by youths where the likely outcome is arrest for alleged assault or being a suspected paedophile). Most credit card fraud involving the misuse of cards by organised criminals is unreported except as a loss to banks. Each incident ought to be obtaining by deception and should make the figures go sky high but they are not being counted.

What is seriously wrong is the way crime is being recorded, or rather not recorded, which is due in part to socialist ideas about what is important and what isn't and the police inability to investigate it properly. So, for the graph, I'm afraid it's crap in crap out. A meaningless exercise.

Simon Stephenson

December 7th, 2010 7:03pm Report this comment

Ian Walker : 6.01pm

Yes, but we also, surely, want to decide how we would like people to structure their own behaviour. Do we want them to look at a set of firm and rigorously enforced laws as being the boundaries for acceptable behaviour, or would we prefer them to look at such laws as the absolute extreme level of tolerance, the wrong side of which one forfeits ones social rights, but which are some way below the minimum standards by which normal citizens are expected to live?

How successful a society can we build if people work on the basis that if it's not illegal, it's OK?

Ed P

December 7th, 2010 7:27pm Report this comment

The Civitas graph for Germany is interesting. Not only is the trend reversed over the last few years (fewer in prison AND fewer crimes), but their per capita crime rate is about half that of the UK. A cynic might ask if theri recording/definition of crimes has changed - if not, some explanation would be very interesting.

TrevorsDen

December 7th, 2010 7:34pm Report this comment

Crime falls because people protect their belongings; cars are far more thief proof than previously.

Do you really believe the figures from the BCS ??

Let me say I would agree to the reintroduction of capital punishment. I think without a doubt certain classes of criminals should be heavily punished.

yank

December 7th, 2010 8:09pm Report this comment

The graphs show that prison spending began to spike in 2003, after being relatively flat the previous 10 years. The prison population growth curve shows no such spike, so we must assume the cost spike comes for other reasons... like increased wages and benefits for public employees, which likely account for well over half of that cost spike, as here.

I don't expect Dave to address those "other reasons". He'll simply let the criminals out of jail, and pocket whatever cost savings comes out of that, while keeping those "other reasons" on the payroll, with their increased wages and benefits.

Afterall, if he addresses those "other reasons", he might get his political hair mussed, and Dave's not one to get his hair mussed. He's rather you get your hair mussed... by some thug.

Noa

December 7th, 2010 10:44pm Report this comment

Nicholas 6:53pm

"What is seriously wrong is the way crime is being recorded, or rather not recorded, which is due in part to socialist ideas about what is important and what isn't and the police inability to investigate it properly. So, for the graph, I'm afraid it's crap in crap out. A meaningless exercise".

Which post penetrates to the heart of the matter.

Add to credit card and computer fraud the 'soft' crimes of benefit, welfare and social security fraud to the count, most not prosecuted, and one would find that such stealing from the taxpayer has nnow become virtually legitimate and accepted as the norm in the ghettoes where it and tax evasion are the norm.

Nor is most drug-related crime captured, especially at the upper levels of organised criminal over-lordship and mass importation.

Further add the multiplier effect of crimes associated with the presence and earnings of illegal immigrants and an entirely different picture, of a lawless and corrupt country, entirely out of the control of its corrupt, craven and inadequate government, police and judiciary, emerges through the thicket of statistical deception.

maddy1

December 8th, 2010 5:33am Report this comment

Amazing drivel here, even fatty KC. himself tossed in the fact, as well as his cigar butt, that crime is falling, into the bitches brew cauldron!!!! We all know crime is not even reported these days. I think the UK. is a safe place because I do not interface with the criminal trash that have denigrated ur society. Even I am not as mad to think our Pensioners on a sink estate have a different perspective. We all see the police themselves question and then shrug their shoulders at say toddlers throwing stones at windows. This continous white noise of crime is the thing that destroys lives not hi-jackings or knee capping! Does Ken Clarke think he impresses people when he attends a meeting in nice and safe Singapore and says to them we are so liberal we bend over and watch our criminals do what thay want, through the crack in our arses? Incidentally, the Singaporeans say to themselves "low crime does not mean no crime'.

Chris lancashire

December 8th, 2010 9:16am Report this comment

We might get better value for money if the government took on the POA and reformed the Prison Service - whilst they're about it they might as well do the same for the Police Service.

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