Will Brown go?

ken from glos

Good article if i may say so but i believe he is ill and looks worse by the day.I think he will collapse with genuine ill health.End of story.

Max Kaye

I agree with your analysis, Fraser. It will probably be a long, drawn-out slow-motion car crash. Unfortunately, many innocent bystanders will be damaged in real time.

Young, ambitious Nu Labour activists (assuming there are any left) should be asking: " Is there no one who can deliver us from this morbid and delusional high priest of impending doom?"

Austin Barry

I suspect that some health reason will be adduced to mask his terminal unelectability. His current raging against the declining light is not helpful to himself, his party or the nation. Time to go, Gordon.

Liam in Preston

A good balanced article. The man has clearly not been treated well by events, but likewise has not treated events well. His detached character, as you put it, will be his undoing.

What he will not do, I suspect, is reshuffle the cabinet. Hanging on to the same faces will avoid the inevitable "panic" headlines. Within 6 months, I suspect he will have decided that enough is enough - and either resign through ill health, or, and this is not that far fetched, make a complete strategic error and call an election.

He messed up the "non election" - you can bet your bottom dollar he may mess up a snap election too...

Howard

I think your analysis virtually spot on. Firstly a factual point. Eden and Macmillan did not have misery illnesses. They were both well documented. They were used as excuses for both going, but were not the reasons.

Point 1. Any plans Brown has to peg the Tories to his plans will not work. The public will see through this. Examples are the 10% tax saga and 42 day detention. One has already backfired badly and the other will.

Point 2. The summer break may save Brown. No news over the silly season will be good news for Brown.

Point 3. Conversely if the Crewe by-election is very bad, i.e. a huge swing to the Tories then panic may set in.

Point 4. Whatever the mechanism Labour has for removing their leader, historically they are very bad at welding the knife and Brown will not resign as you say.

Point 5. Last week proved that the Lib Dems to not vote tactically any longer, which is bad for Labour

Point 6. The young tucks do not have any public credibility and have much to lose if the challenge and do not win. However Straw and Clarke do not. They have nothing to lose to mount a challenge providing they think they will win.

Yes I suppose I agree with your conclusions and of course if Brown stays that will only help the Tories. Conversely two more years of this will be more than enough for any man including Brown. He may crack first. Ambition, pride and ego have done funny things to lesser men.

Lastly Brown's premiership and the run up to it resembles Eden's in so many ways rather then Major's. More needs to be made of this point.

And finally, has Murdoch turned? If so all what I have said and what you have said can be binned! Brown has lost.

Water

The thought of writing an incredibly long response crossed my mind but it simply boils down to the fact that well… I don’t see him going. Unless! No, no it’s just not going to happen. Though I do hope Kavanagh is right for something certainly needs to be left in order to be right.

Drew SW London

Of more interest, perhaps, is what Brown might do after leaving No. 10 - as this may actually be the key to engineering his departure.

World Bank? IMF? Some African Poverty Tsardom?

Some creativity here might spare us all the blushes of a mysterious ailment.

ethan hurlington

Without wanting to be mean, Gordon Brown must know, that if he imposes himself on us until May 2010, this country is going to be so sick of him (probably on his 56th re-launch) that he is probably going to be the 'victim' of the biggest landslide in British political history. Marr got close to breaking to him what we all know the main problem is... Gordon, it’s not the 'global economic turbulence'... or even, your policies (although they are terrible)...IT’S YOU!!!!!

cuffleyburgers

Good in that the longer he stays the longer Labour will deservedly remain in the doldrums.

The downside is that the damage to the country will likely accelerate in the monster's death throes and the task for the next administration will be all the harder.

It behoves the Tories now to begin the task of preparing the public for the inevitable belt tightening the pain of which could be minimized by doing it intelligently but of course this never happens because it is not in anybody's interest to do so (except the taxpayer, so what)

This must take the form of insisting on Mr Brown balancing the books in some form, and coming clean about of balance sheet stuff like PFI, and finally accounting for public sector pensions liabilities openly and properly like any company would have to do.

JH

Labour looks like going back to its 1980s suicidal habit, suspended during the Blair era, of ignoring that the facts of life are conservative. Bennite types will tell us that the party is not left wing enough and will compound the mess they ar already in. That will be followed by Reg Prentice-type floor crossings as the next electon approaches. Cameron will probably be the next prime minister but he will inherit no golden economic legacy and given thye way psephological trends favour labour, he will not have ahuge majority. We will once again be in the position of a conservative administration having to clear up the mess left behind by labour.

Manjit

Amazing how things turn around, because back in July last year Kavanagh was writing Gordon Brown: 'is going to win and win big. In the process he will likely set Labour up for a fifth term and 20 unbroken years of socialism'. Wonder if he feels rather silly now?

I think Labour will stick with Brown. They should have took Charles Clarke advice before they elected him unopposed.

TGF UKIP

I would agree with Ken from Glos. I have believed and posted for some time that Brown is a very brittle character, like many overbearing bullies, and will be unable to cope with the strains of office and his own crushing failure. A tragic figure for whom it is impossible to feel any sympathy, I'm sure some Coffee House historian or classicist will be able to present some parallel figure from history. On the other hand if I am wrong about his physical and mental stamina, he does have something to hang on to. Given that the past seven months are the worst suffered by any government for at least fifty years, and far worse than anything under Major, a large (44%) anti government vote could only be expected and while Cameron may huff and puff there is little sign of any real enthusiasm for the Tories. There is certainly no tidal wave of enthusiasm behind them as there was behind Blair & Co's New Labour from 95 onwards. What do the Cameron Tories stand for besides headbanging greenery is still a largely unanswered question. What will encourage Gordon even further is an analysis of party positioning. Conservative Home did this a month or so back and, if I remember, you commented on it Fraser and did not substantially disagree with it. This demonstrated that the Cameron Tories have shifted themselves leftward onto Labour ground exactly as Blair did with New Labour the other way towards Thatcher ground. Consequently I'm sure Gordon would rationalize if it's a left of centre tune to be sung to woo the electorate who would be the more authentic chorus Real Labour or Blue Labour. On this basis Gordon has every reason to cling on, and hope not just that passing squalls are less severe than in the past seven months but that Dave continues to shoot himself in the foot.

Ray

Tony Blair was always working against the grain of his party's natural instincts; unlike Margaret Thatcher, who for the most part worked with the grain of hers.
Therefore, it was always inevitable that Labour would return to type, however much the voters were spoon-fed talk of 'Cool Britannia' (read: destroying the traditional bastions of British public life), 'investing in public services' (read: frittering away taxpayers' money) and 'tough-on-crime-tough-on-the-causes-of-crime' (read: being phenomenally half-soaked about both).
At last, the British people have seen through the New Labour charade. The tragedy is that by the time David Cameron gets his hands on the ship-of-state, the parlous state of British public finances will be such that it'll require herculean determination to haul it around. In that sense, we'll probably be living with the legacy of Gordon Brown for a long time to come.

John of Enfield

Sorry to disagree with Ken: The basic idea of your article is sound but I don't think you have developed it anywhere near far enough.

The key issues in this debate are 1) The Economy 2) Brown's perception of what the problems are 3) Brown's inflexibility as a leader.

The underlying economic problems are caused by a large, permanent Government Budget deficit (always underestimated in the Budget) leading to far to big a proportion of GDP going in tax and a long term current account deficit. Brown has never been willing to admit these as problems and so I cannot see him ever changing his stance to address them. It was very sad to hear him recently going out of his way to correct an interviewer about the proportion of GDP that goes to the Government - he lied outright claiming it was 5% less than it is. Even this ignores the effect of PFI and other off-balance sheet scams.

The very first step in deciding what to do is to accept & understand what reality is. He fails to accept where we are economically speaking so I see that he will fail to address the problems & we will very rapidly run into severe trouble. All the usual excuses will be rolled out “Gnomes of Zurich"; "Suits at the IMF"; "US sub-prime problems". Because Brown does not even accept the underlying problems and because he is too inflexible he will stay in post until his Government is finally defeated because of a major economic crisis (A Sterling Crisis, another Bank in trouble?).

There is no-one in the Labour Party able to unseat Brown nor is there anyone with sufficient understanding of basic economics to advise him or replace him before the train crash happens. Can you see him, for example, shedding all the public servants he has recruited in the last eleven years?

The sooner Brown goes the better for us all - otherwise we are doomed! It is our duty as bloggers to bully him into it as soon as we can. Listing all his “Brownies” every day is an excellent start. Can we do more to communicate these to the electorate?

Howard

I think your analysis virtually spot on. Firstly a factual point. Eden and Macmillan did not have mistery illnesses. They were both well documented. They were used as excuses for both going, but were not the reasons.

Point 1. Any plans Brown has to peg the Tories to his plans will not work. The public will see through this. Examples are the 10% tax saga and 42 day detention. One has already backfired badly and the other will.

Point 2. The summer break may save Brown. No news over the silly season will be good news for Brown.

Point 3. Conversely if the Crewe by-election is very bad, i.e. a huge swing to the Tories then panic may set in.

Point 4. Whatever the mechanism Labour has for removing their leader, historically they are very bad at welding the knife and Brown will not resign as you say.

Point 5. Last week proved that the Lib Dems to not vote tactically any longer, which is bad for Labour

Point 6. The young turks do not have any public credibility and have much to lose if the challenge and do not win. However Straw and Clarke do not. They have nothing to lose to mount a challenge providing they think they will win.

Yes I suppose I agree with your conclusions, and of course, if Brown stays that will only help the Tories. Conversely two more years of this will be more than enough for any man including Brown. He may crack first. Ambition, pride and ego have done funny things to lesser men.

Lastly Brown's premiership and the run up to it resembles Eden's in so many ways rather then Major's. More needs to be made of this point.

And finally, has Murdoch turned? If so all what I have said and what you have said can be binned! Brown has lost.

London Bob

Doesn't this beg the question: what is the Labour Party now for?

Labour's traditional working class roots are declining by the week as the middle class grows ever larger.

And if the post-Thatcherite/Blairite New Labour coalition no longer holds, then where else does the Labour Party have to go except back to its ever-diminishing grass roots.

Could this be a real opportunity for the Lib Dems, following a socially and economically liberal agenda, to surge past Labour?

EyeSee

Too much relies on apathy. Blair won by lucky timing and guile. The Tories had been in power a long time and the standard British attitude of fair play suggests giving the other fellow a chance. It made the Labour Party desperate for any strategy to get back into power, so kind of sold its soul to the Devil. Blair himself and his coterie were like minded and determined career politicians, who basically on a human level were imbeciles. The weak leader always ensures his number two doesn't represent any kind of threat (John Prescott, ipso facto -I rest my case). So the New Labour planning and plotting was designed only to seize power not actually to consider what the country needed, or even what their take on the need was. This would have been an ideology, which might have been complete tosh, but would have defined them and been a recognisable 'direction'. (It is tempting to believe Blair specifically avoided this, because it would be too honest and show what he was about politically, and give a target, But the evidence suggests it was at best subconscious -way too sophisticated for the snake oil salesman). In Brown, Blair had someone who genuinely wanted to do the number crunching job and this, rather than any ability to perform the task was the over-riding concern. A vague promise that he could take over at some date in the distant future would have seemed harmless enough and a small enough price to pay. So on taking power we had the celebrity candidate forming policy on the hoof, writing idiot legislation that created chaos, never serious in addressing real problems and with Brown all the while doing the same without ever speaking up (except budgets, when he had to) on any issue whatsoever. Being a party now mainly consisting of grubby chancers on the make, the scandals rolled in from day one. Blair had realised that the British political system has no effective check on a dishonourable politician, if that politician refuses to accept his actions should have consequences, hence the oft heard 'move on'. The Blair/Brown government has been an unmitigated and unrelieved disaster for this country and with the Enron style accounting that allows Browns figures to 'add up' we are saddling the future with a massive demand on the country, which means high taxes for a long time. Naturally, the loyalty of those enacting this madcap world had to be absolute so Blair put his spin doctors in charge of civil servants, who then realised that to survive in the new political reality they had to do the administrations bidding. Similarly the police and all branches of government funded activity (through newly placed managers) turned to face the government rather than those they are supposed to serve. Targets were the method to control these people, not to monitor or improve services. Brown is just more of the same. He is not trying to be like Blair, they are the same incompetent pair they always have been. Blair just smiled a lot. The whole country has been conned, Labour voters and people who believe in a successful, free country alike. Cameron has been sucked into this political reality too and must break out of it. Politics is the name we give to the way people go about an activity, not the name of the activity. It is this perversion that needs curing. Britain needs to look to its culture and recover our historical place as a nation well bred, well fed and well led.

Observer

What is needed is a vote of confidence in the government. However the Conservatives are unlikely to bring it and Labour certainly won't.

King Prawn

It is obvious that the Tories will win the next election. The interesting point after the next election will be will The Blairites realise that Labour will go back to the left and leave and form their own party. Because it is pretty obvious that a 'left winger' will become the Labour leader after Brown's eventual downfall and that the Labour Party will go into the wilderness. Why waste your time in perpetual opposition.

John

"The people who deserted the party last week were the ones whom Blair wooed from the Tories" - what utter nonsense. The people of the Welsh valleys were not wooed by Blair from the Tories.

kinglear

Good article - but the question of more moment is has Murdoch turned? You can bet on it - Brown will go down as the worst Chancellor AND the worst Prime Minister we have ever had.

John

"Amazing how things turn around, because back in July last year Kavanagh was writing Gordon Brown: 'is going to win and win big. In the process he will likely set Labour up for a fifth term and 20 unbroken years of socialism'. Wonder if he feels rather silly now?"

He should. The stupidity of that statement was evident to anyone with common sense who had not spent the previous 10 years on Pluto. Only dizzy media types were spouting drivel such as 'his towering intellect and economic prudence'. The rest of us knew about his incompetence, the raids on pensions etc etc etc, and vowed to punish him big time in the voting booths.

Ann

"while Cameron may huff and puff there is little sign of any real enthusiasm for the Tories. There is certainly no tidal wave of enthusiasm behind them as there was behind Blair & Co's New Labour from 95 onwards. What do the Cameron Tories stand for besides headbanging greenery is still a largely unanswered question" - this is cloud cuckoo-land with bells and whistles. Everyone I know, including old-time Labourites, are telling me they'll vote Tory. Heck, many of them DID vote Tory last week. Where on earth do you think that huge 44% came from, including huge swings in the Welsh valleys? As for policies, the Tories have policies on everything from education to health to crime. You simply need to bother ot read them. But clearly, you are going to believe everything you hear from Labour HQ. Oh, dear ...

Nicholas

Ann, TGF UKIP is not much for Labour, New or Old, but never misses the chance to put the boot into Cameron and the Tories, even in the most tenuous context - as here. But we love him really.

Max Kaye

John of Enfield writes: "Listing all his “Brownies” every day is an excellent start. Can we do more to communicate these to the electorate?"

Yes, there is. Take pearls of wisdom from this site and post them (with credits as may be due) on other blogs that have a wide/popular distribution - such as Nick Robinson's blog over on the BBC. Once you see the likes of Nick using the phrase 'Brownies' you'll know that Mr Bean is well and truly buried.

Laura Fox

Yes, Labour's ideological split paralises it on essential functions of Government, such as public services reforms, making Labour unfit for Government.

The Conservative Party has its own more radical right wing, but it affects less essential issues.

John

Excellent analysis, EyeSee!

TomTom

Brown will be forced to the country in 2009 when he loses a vote. The backbenchers are not going to rally behind him for every division and the more the mortgage rationing take hold and unemployment mounts with more Poles eligible for benefits; the kore the budget deficit will balloon until emergency cuts become inevitable.

Brown has a currency that is on the skids and a very angry populace whose ability to weather inflation is limited...trouble lies ahead and Brown has no overdraft facility. He will go when he least wants to

Fraser Nelson

Manjit & John, I disagree - this time last year (well, after June) the vast majority - including most of the Shadow Cabinet and people around Cameron - thought Brown would win an early election. I got my biggest-ever Coffee House kicking for suggesting Cameron would have lost and would have had to resign had this gone ahead (I still think that). Sure, Brown would have imploded after that election as quickly as Major imploded after 1992 but Kavanagh then spoke what most people in politics thought. Every poll and metric available backs this up. The public were willing to give GB a chance and he was judged (wrongly, in my view) to have handled floods/terror/foot and mouth well. This makes his subsequent fall all the more spectacular. And point taken about the Welsh valleys - obv Cameron's support stretches far wider than just the Thatcher voters Blair wooed (tho i'd say it does include that group).

Tiberius

Ann: quite right - the Tory win in 2010 does not of necessity have to replicate the route of the NuLab one of 1997. Fraser's analysis is spot on. And while nothing in life is 100% certain, a Tory win in 2010 is almost inevitable (but perhaps with a majority of only 30 as I've intuited before). I think we can say with some certainty that Cameron knows that mood music won't be enough - he said so on Friday morning. As for Brown, my prediction is he'll take Labour into the next election at the latest possible date, not having faced an attempt to depose him. He'll resign after losing, making the most laughable resignation speech in recorded history; unrepentant, and no health issues on display.

TGF UKIP

Ooh, Nicholas, I'm touched and so pleased I lighten your life. As it was this is the second time Ann has had a go at me in similar circumstances. I had marked her card, therefore, as a good Tory gel, very much in the Tamzin mould, who had similarly fallen for Dave's boyish charms and was determined not to see her man being scorned by a vulgar, northern DD supporter. Perhaps, "Ann" really is Tamzin using a pseudonym!

Perry

Much here to think about Fraser.

Meanwhile, and thinking about our esteemed and Beloved Leader, his obvious misery and torment at the pain he has unleashed the land, his tearful admissions of guilt on TV the following keeps coming to mind . . .

"I weep for you," the Leader said:
"I deeply sympathise."
With sobs and tears he sorted out
Those of every size,
Holding his pocket-handkerchief
Before his streaming eyes.

"O suckers," said the government,
"You've had a pleasant run!
And soon we’ll tax you all again”
But answer came there none - -
And this was scarcely odd, because
They'd wiped out every one (who could pay).

With due acknowledgement to LC

Othesius the facilitator

Though the talk in the last few blogging days seem to show Brown in a pretty poor light, I hope that people out there do not start feeling sorry for him. This man is a ruthless destroyer and could often be seen licking his lips at the dispatch box as the next Tory corpse presented itself for a Brown tongue lashing. He would regularly put down anybody who disagreed with him. I was layed up with a knee injury just after they came to power and I would watch him on the parl' channel dishing out some pretty cruel jibes to the opposition. The cheek of it was though was that he used Ken Clarkes ecomomic success as the cudgel to beat them with. So I repeat do not feel sorry for "godger" Brown he would never feel sorry for you.

Ann

Well, it's just the usual nonsense from TGF: deja vu all over again. Other than definitely not voting for MacBean in 2010 or whenever, I am not entirely sure who I'll vote for. But if TGF thinks he can rationalise away my criticism by classifying me this way or t'other, and it makes him happy, well, simple things delight simple minds.

TGF UKIP

"Sancta simplicitas" as Yogi Berra might also have said.

Celtic Oracle

Ken Livingstone will be Labour Party Leader and Prime Minister by end 2008. Its obvious if you think about it.

John

Fraser, what can I say: we had pretty bad floods here last year, and I certainly didn't give Bean the benefit of the doubt about that or indeed about anything else, from pensions to gold to all his other crooked dealings (shrug). I have been describing him to people as a gangster with a defective personality for several years now. I got a lot of stick for it, true, but I like to think - and am pretty sure - that I managed to convince several people.

TGF UKIP

If he has shredded and swept behind him, not so far fetched Celtic Oracle, though end of 2008 might be a little premature - it's what Livingstone has always aimed for. Johnson, though, has the chance to drive a stake through his heart - if he obeys Deep Throat's injunction and "follows the money."

Stan, Uk

Fraser, two things in your piece that I take issue with you on are, it was not Blairism that persuaded some ex-Thatcher voters to vote Labour, but Blair the man. Back in 1997 hardly anyone said I'm voting Labour/New Labour, most said I'm voting Blair. Also I think the so called younger generation would be foolish to make the assumption that if a change of party in government comes in 2010 it would be a one term wonder. This country above all else likes political stability and we are extremely fair, in that we give governments time to implement their agenda. In the last 30 years a change in the party in power has only happened twice and couple that with the fact that when Labour go into oppostion they will almost certainly go into meltdown as to whether to take the party left or right in direction. Do you honestly think Miliband or Purnell are strong enough to enforce discipline on the Labour party like Blair, Mandelson and Campbell did? Otherwise your piece was top class!

Dave

Oh God Celtic Oracle you could be right about Livingstone. I doubt it will be as early as you say but he is the left's dream. This could get very interesting.

Tel, Spain

The Livingstone factor is a very interesting one as the man has a huge influence in the Labour party and is extremely volitile and ruthless.

Jessica

What about Frank Field?

Water

John Gordon Brown a gangster haha! I'm sure you got a lot of stick for that! What a truly vivid imagination hahahahaha

steve

Whilst I think some comments maybe onto something with possible ill health. I suspect that Gordon Brown would have to be carried out feet first, rather than resign. So I think he will cling on until an election in 2010

Tara

On the Murdoch question:

"To make things just a little harder, his few media baron allies seem to be deserting him too. I'm told that Rupert Murdoch has already approved the move to Cameron, despite private reservations about the Tory leader."

Jackie Ashley, yesterday Guardian newspaper.

Water

I don't see him getting ill but 2010 seems to be a certainty.

Jeff, Bristol

Of course Murdoch has turned, it happened when Brown refused to hold a referndum on the EU Constitution/Lisbon Treaty.

Tess

Murdoch may have turned but The Sun still allows Blunkett to spew out government propaganda through his weekly column. Referring to people's attitude towards Brown, this is a line from last weeks:

"The British do seem to have forgotten the old maxim about never kicking a man when he is down."

Ian C

"the party only stomached him because it was hungry for power." Absolutely right. Why the whole project was doomed and why the British people will not return to a Labour Gov't. ESpect disintegration over the partyas they realise that they lost their purpose with the death of Trade Unionism - something they should have avoided but it abused its influence in the mid/late 20th Century. It and the Lib Dems wil fight to become the British Social Democratic party and the Tories will be the eternal 'return to' party when the left of centre gets uncomfortable/needs to renew itself.

Mary Mead

I don't really know what to make of The Sun newspaper, it certainly doesn't shine for me. Yes, well done, darling Boris, London deserves you. As for David Cameron being 'cemented in' as the next Prime Minister, well, that's as mebbe; but a lot of water has to flow under the little bridge at the back of my garden before that particular cement sets. And when it does, I do hope he'll put Punch and Judy away like a good little boy. I know he's been a bit of a failure as PM (not the first one), but I can't help feeling just a teeny bit sorry for Brown (didn't Blair time his jumping ship nicely?) - put it down to the whims of an oldie if you like.

Oscar Miller

Of course it's 100% likely that Cameron will be the next PM - and I'm 100% certain his policies will stand up to scrutiny. (that much vaunted 'scrutiny' which the Labour hugging BBC don't seem very keen on putting into action). The Conservatives have a huge and emerging political talent in Cameron - the commentariat has always underestimated him. It's all about judgement - that judgement that Brown so manifestly lacks - and Cameron has the finest political antennae and judgement in the political jungle. He will be king of that jungle for many years to come. I've been blogging this since last summer (when Cam was at his lowest ebb) and my call is being proved ever more accurate.

Oscar Miller

Mary Mead - Blair didn't choose the date of his departure. It was imposed on him by Gordon Brown after the failed coup in Autumn 2006. Blair made it clear he wanted to stay until 2008, but Gordon forced him to leave a year early. In the long long catalogue of Gordon Brown's catastrophic judgements he managed to shove Blair out of office weeks before the credit crunch. Very lucky - as it turns out- for Blair, but not predicted.

BaldEric

Gordon Browns only chance of winning a popular vote is if Balls runs a leadership campaign

Martin

Brown is undoubtedly insane.
He shares delusions of infallibility with the world's new messiah, Tony Bliar.
With luck, somebody even more insane than even these two dangers will rid us of both of them.