Who's next?
Fraser Nelson 1:39pmLadbrokes has just updated its odds for the next Labour leader. Which of the below names would have the ability to unite Labour against Brown, successfully trigger a leadership challenge, secure union support to depose him, and then volunteer to lead the party into what will probably be an election defeat? And if you were David Miliband’s best mate, what would your advice to him be?
David Miliband 5/2 – too young to ruin his career now
Alan Johnson 6/1 – likeable, but no ambition to be no1.
Ed Balls 6/1 – the PLP would lynch him sooner than Brown.
Jack Straw 7/1 – if Straw is the answer, what is the question?
James Purnell 8/1 – too soon. Will have his eye on 2015.
John Denham 10/1 – least ridiculous suggestion, but still daft.
Jon Cruddas 12/1 – Authentic leftie, but can’t win Middle England.
Yvette Cooper 12/1 – anyone seen Newsnight recently?
Andy Burnham 14/1 – now we’re really getting silly.
Harriet Harman 14/1 – would make Brown years seem like golden era
I wont go further down the list (suffice to say Caroline Flint is at 25/1) but it reinforces my belief that Labour has no alternate candidate willing to volunteer for the suicide mission.
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Comments
bt
May 5th, 2008 2:06pmWhat are the odds for Blunkett's dog?
After all, everybody likes Labradors so it might be worth an e/w fiver.
Sam Bowman
May 5th, 2008 2:19pmJohn Reid at 50/1 has got to be a decent bet – surely no-one believes he really did retire from the front bench to spend more time with his constituents, or whatever excuse he gave? The man hates Brown and would relish the opportunity to replace him, even if only as a caretaker.
TrevorH
May 5th, 2008 2:57pmSam - the labour party would not vote for John Reid. Besides is even the labour party ready for another Scottish leader/PM?
No mention of Milburn (who Brownites would rather see hanging from a street lamp) or Byers (don't make me laugh) or Clarke (just about the only person Blair managed to sack, for incompetence).
The only plausible suggestion short term is Jack Straw and they really need a numpty to stand against him to avoid yet more claims to an 'unelected' PM.
Yet Straw is so perceptive that he was Browns campaign manager - are we to accept as a PM the man who thought Brown was a good idea. This is one of labours problems, the entire party were so wise that they saw fit to anoint rather than elect Brown, what does that say about any of their perspicacity??
Fergus Pickering
May 5th, 2008 3:02pmWhat about Clement Attlee. Yes, I know he's dead, but you can't have everything
TrevorH
May 5th, 2008 3:07pmOn the other hand ....
Whilst some might think their long term best bet might be to wait untill after the next election, they may be worried that if they do nothing they might not actually get re-elected --- so might strike now in the hope that being PM would bump up their vote. As with Margaret Thatcher, fate and momentum might smile on the one who strikes first.
Maybe ...
John
May 5th, 2008 3:28pmYes, but the country would demolish Reid.
What about Hazel Blears or Jacqui Smith? OK, OK, I'll get my coat.
John
May 5th, 2008 3:29pmRuth Kelly? Anyone interested in 200/1?
Or what's her name, the Olympics Waste Minister - do I hear 400/1?
Austin Barry
May 5th, 2008 3:58pmJohn Hutton would be a good outside bet. He is thoughtful and literate so has at least two advantages over the rest of the cuckoo's nest.
David Lindsay
May 5th, 2008 4:38pmBlairism without Blair? What would be the point of that?
As for Hutton, his performance on The Westminster Hour was truly the view from the bunker. He just denied the possibility that the traditional Labour vote might actually have turned out and voted for other people, even in the face of the fact that exactly that had obviously happened.
The Old Labour Independents in Wales already have one seat in Parliament. Do Jon Cruddas and half a dozen others need to lose their seats to the BNP before the message gets through? Or will even that fail to do the trick?
AlanofEngland
May 5th, 2008 5:02pmBlunkett's dog would stand a better chance than all this lot, but how about another thought? How many Labour Lords/Ladies would give their eye teeth to renounce their titles to offer their services?
Nicholas
May 5th, 2008 5:54pmLet's face it and the posts above confirm it - there is nobody.
The party itself, Labour old or new, socialism, the great Left hope, is irrelevant to modern politics and offers nothing. Its strongest features are either self-destructive or completely barmy. Its "let pretend to be Tories" facade is unravelling as the East German control freaks beaver away with their sinister oh-so-unsubtle agenda of destroying every worthwhile aspect of living in Britain.
Those high-principled idealist socialists of the old Left (are there any left?) cannot hope to peddle their misguided irrelevance in the current environment. The bus has been hi-jacked by the weird and the extreme, the zealots, the puritans, the self-serving aggrandisers and charlatans. And that's just the cabinet.
The party and its wretched government stagger like the living dead, symbolic of everything grim, miserable and threatening. Repulsive to look at, frightening, single-minded but clumsy in its desire to do harm to you and me and eat our brains.
With zombies you need to separate the head from the body and just let the thing die, not find another head for it.
James J
May 5th, 2008 5:56pmMiliband? Is that a joke or are the Conservatives praying and manipulating (not necessarily in that order) with his famed Marxist family it would scare the city half to death and he looks like a child!
No Jonathan Cruddas is their best bet.
Max Kaye
May 5th, 2008 6:08pmThis fun barrel-scrapping exercise has lead me to the happy conclusion that Nu Labour might as well select Ken Livingstone, Peter Mandelson or even Digby Jones ('PM of all the Talents'?) for all the difference it will make.
Thomas Cussans
May 5th, 2008 6:20pmAs the posts above demonstrate, the extraordinary thing about Labour is that they are stymied in every direction. The current leader/PM is demented and HATED; all the other possible contenders – and I use the term in the loosest possible sense – are non-starters.
They have nowhere to turn.
And it is all their own doing.
Better still, they have another disaster looming in Crewe and Nantwich, where they will be exterminated.
Has there ever been political ineptitude on this scale?
Still, as Adam Boulton pointed out yesterday, given that the current cabinet consists of 'youngsters and pygmies', I say go for an actual pygmy.
Step forward Hazel Blears.
David morris
May 5th, 2008 6:46pmYvette Cooper 12/1 ?
That just about sums up the paucity of available alternatives.
Travis Bickle
May 5th, 2008 6:48pmNews just in from the magic sign
James Purnell's cardboard cutout cut to 12/1
steven
May 5th, 2008 7:36pmCharles Clarke?
Ray
May 5th, 2008 8:03pmI hear Ken Livingstone is looking for a new job.
Sean W
May 5th, 2008 8:25pmWhat about Hilary Benn?
Ann
May 5th, 2008 8:41pmWhat about Tony Benn?
Fraser Nelson
May 5th, 2008 9:36pmWell since you ask... Ladbrokes make following odds for them. Smith/Clarke/Reid/Kelly all at 50/1, Hutton 25/1, Hilary Benn 20/1, Livingstone/Blears 100/1. NB many (Smith, Kelly) expected to lose their seat at next election in event of Tory majority. But bt, no odds for Blunkett's dog. One A.C.L. Blair is on at 100/1
Perry
May 5th, 2008 9:38pm[Who next?]
Tongue scarcely in cheek, I propose a triumvirate :
Mz. H. Blears
Mz. H. Harman
Mz. D. Abbott
Now, wouldn’t that be a PC triumph of all the virtues?
(and I’m already heading for shelter . . . )
phil
May 6th, 2008 8:30amJack Straw is a dealmaker and would be the man to choose to lose the next election slightly- which a lot of MPs would take now. He would not be opposed by the younger pretenders. He should be odds on for a palace coup.
Jessica
May 6th, 2008 8:53amWhat about Frank Field?
JR
May 6th, 2008 11:42amJohn Hutton will not accept the suicide mission (of triggering a leadership election) even if he could raise the support to do so. He's adaptable and has found himself quite at home saying the unsayable (i.e. nuclear power, supporting the super rich) at the moment, and I think everyone in the westminister area will hear the celebration if he gets defence. Watch out for him in the ministerial car burning rubber from victoria street round to whitehall.
Fair play to him. Whatever his faults he's an interesting character (honestly) and to get away with an almost scorched earth approach to Blair's last year in office and still keep a job is, in a way, rather heroic.
Jim Murphy has got a sound radar and could build a public image in the right job, but his lack of panache on the floor of the house (and that scotish thing) rules him out.
Jacqui Smith somehow managed to increase her majority in the face of a midlands drubbing last time out so I could see her surviving the next election.
molesworth 1
May 6th, 2008 9:53pmFraser, given that "What is the question?" is what's actually confronting the Labour Party, your views on the other contenders reinforces my personal opinion that , in the right circumstances, Caretaker Straw would take the electoral hit for 'The Party' before a Miliband ascendency. IMHO.