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Sunday, 12th December 2010

Cameron must head for the common ground

Fraser Nelson 4:59pm

All the attention last week was on the Lib Dem split – but what about the division within the Conservatives? This is the greater threat to the coalition, and while there is not likely to be an earthquake soon, one can discern the outlines of the tectonic plates. Ladbrokes has odds of 5-2 of an election next year, and these don't seem so short when one considers the short life of coalitions in British peacetime history. So where might the tension lie? A while ago, I referred to the bulk of the party as "mainstream Conservatism," as a more useful phrase than the tautological "Tory right". Tim Montgomerie last week drew a distinction between this and what Ken Clarke calls "liberal Conservatism". I wrote about this in my News of the World column today, which prompted an email from a Tory MP saying how many of his colleagues are asking "what is the point if everything I stood for in May is just ignored in office – power with out principle is pointless and deeply unsatisfying". One can agree or disagree with the sentiment, but there are rising concerns among the Tory backbenches. They won't rebel, there is no plan for regicide. But it's worth looking a little at what's going on.

Mainstream Conservatism can be defined as the beliefs shared by most Conservative members, in common with the public. Euroscepticism, for example, can scarcely be found in the House of Commons, yet only a third of Brits think that EU membership is "a good thing". So being Eurosceptic might mean one is on the fringe of Westminster opinion (or that of the metropolitan elite in general), but pretty well aligned with general public opinion. Newspapers (and magazines) are read regularly by a minority of people: they tend to reflect the views of their target readers. Liberal Conservatism may be more in tune with the media, but this is not the same as the vox populi.

Liberal Conservatives tend to have spent more of their lives in Westminster, imbibing its values and learning a new version of the 'middle ground' – ie, a mid-point between the skewed spectrum of political opinion represented in the House of Commons. This is not much shared by the new MPs (half of the parliamentary party) who are fresh in from the real world, and feel a greater loyalty to their constituents than a government whose agenda is different to the one on which they stood for office.

The beliefs of Mainstream Conservatives? Tough on crime, sceptical about closing prisons, hawkish on defence, anxious about immigration and hostile to the European Union. The Liberal Conservatives like the coalition because it cements their power in the party – and, indeed, many want the coalition to last for another five years. Mainstream Conservatives look forward to the time where they can dump the Lib Dems, and many say so in terms.

This distinction between these two groups mirrors, pretty much, that which Sir Keith Joseph famously drew between the 'middle ground' and the 'common ground'. I'd normally quote him directly, but a politician subsequently put it even better:

"You reach the middle ground as an exercise in political positioning, splitting the difference between the parties. You seek the common ground through a process of profound political inquiry, understanding the deepest values of the British people. Seeking the middle ground, you define yourself by the position of your opponents and you lose any connection between your policies and your principles. That is what happened to Tony Blair. The real task of politics is to apply your principles and your values to the issues which most concern people."
This was David Cameron, delivering the 2005 Keith Joseph Memorial lecture to the CPS. This time last year, when I was preparing my own lecture (text here) it struck me just how much of Cameron's speeches contain the values of Mainstream Conservatism. He's not one of these people who are still, in their heads, fighting the Tory Wars of 1995-2005 (and who still use the labels of that era, like 'moderniser' or 'traditionalist' etc). Cameron is at home with both main strands of Tory thought, making him ideally suited to be leader. But, as James Forsyth has argued, Cameron is proudly a post-ideological politician: he regards himself as chairman of the board, his mission to keep everyone happy. This skill is essential to working a coalition.

Interestingly, the new MPs have no interest in (and are pretty baffled by) the Tory Wars and its terminology. Calling oneself a 'moderniser' now is like a Labour MP calling oneself a Kinnockite: it was right for a certain period of history, but politics moves on rapidly. Trying to apply the Blair tactics to the Tories was never going to work: it was playing by a 1997-00 gameplan, when conditions had shifted to look more like 1979-1982. New Tory MPs (with the exceptions of those who were advisers/combatants during the Tory Wars and have, ergo, been shaped by it) are suspicious of this Blair-style 'Triangulation'. Cameron himself has denounced it as "the process of working out what you should say by reference to your own past position, and your opponent's current position". As Cameron says, this is political fudge: the electorate can smell it a mile off, and they tend not to vote for it.

So Cameron needs to keep this balance in his party. This means giving Gove and IDS all possible support from No.10: their agendas are, right now, the glue which keeps the Tory coalition together. As James argues in the Mail on Sunday today, Cameron may have to eject Ken Clarke. The Tory leader has spoken against the deception of the "centre ground" clearly enough to demonstrate that he's not taken in by it.

Filed under: Coalition (2088 more articles) , Conservatives (2312 more articles) , Crime (260 more articles) , David Cameron (1913 more articles) , Europe (752 more articles) , Keith Joseph (2 more articles) , Ken Clarke (113 more articles) , Liberal Democrats (1155 more articles) , Tim Montgomerie (13 more articles) , UK politics (5406 more articles)

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Comments Post comment

Holly ......

December 12th, 2010 5:19pm Report this comment

Like Major said,"Makes my blood boil".
NEXT!!!!!

mongoose

December 12th, 2010 5:27pm Report this comment

Common ground; common sense; common decency; common good; Common Market; Commonwealth; House of Commons.

Holly ......

December 12th, 2010 5:33pm Report this comment

I can not remember the media trying so hard to bring down a government,especially with all the financial/social problems we face as a country.
It is a national disgrace!
This is a situation that has been cooked up and kept simmering by the media.
They hate the fact that the public were willing to give it a fair shot.They hate the fact that their beloved lefties are not
constantly feeding them headlines.
What do you think will happen if you are successful Fraser?
A Labour majority,with 'Daddy Ed' at the wheel?
A Labour minority,again with 'Daddy Ed'?
A Conservative majority/minority?
Even with a minority,most things will have been passed already so no gain for you there.
I started to read your column in the paper.
I got to the line,"no changes to the voting system to 'RIG' the result".
What 'rigging' would that be then?
Changing the boundaries so the number of voters in each boundary is of similar size,
thus taking away the Labour favouring situation?
How come you did not speak in such crappy tones about the boundaries favouring the Labour party?
I hope you are successful,the chances are a minority Conservative government,that will go on to get a better result after that,but that is what you want,isn't it Fraser???
No need to reply,I have had all the weazel words I can stomach for one day!

Occasional Ostrich

December 12th, 2010 5:53pm Report this comment

Has 'common' ceased to be the pejorative it was 50 years ago?

Span Ows

December 12th, 2010 6:07pm Report this comment

Common or garden, come-on!

Simon Stephenson

December 12th, 2010 6:14pm Report this comment

I'm sorry, Fraser, I don't just think you are making a few mistakes with this line of thinking, I think you are living in cloud-cuckoo-land. Non-ideological politics is indefensible at all times, but it's not difficult to see how societies succumb to it when things are moving broadly in their favour. It's very much a feminised approach of focusing on processes in the present, rather than outcomes in the future - an unanticipatory type of thinking, which lifts the present when little is going wrong.

But, we're now going in to a major breakdown in the world economic order, in which smiling, and making people feel happy, really isn't going to be much good. And people who've spent their lives in the cocoon of thinking that marketing is the only thing that matters are soon going to be faced with a situation that they haven't the remotest idea how to address.

Robert Eve

December 12th, 2010 6:15pm Report this comment

Certainly is time to ditch Ken Clarke.

Boudicca

December 12th, 2010 6:21pm Report this comment

Mongoose, you forgot one.

Common Purpose.

Cameron is just another Common Purpose trained EU stooge. He serves the Politburo, not the British people.

http://www.tpuc.org/node/107.

Tim W

December 12th, 2010 6:22pm Report this comment

I agree with much of the article. I also think Cameron is thought of as a leftie unfairly.
The one point I'd disagree with is that the government should open more prisons, be hawkish on defence etc simply because it is popular with the people but not so with the 'metropolitan media'. It's often the case that the media promote these views because evidence undertaken by experts suggests they are right. It may sound great to lock up more people, but if having a different approach actually cuts crime then I'd rather do the thing which worked best rather than sounded best to the ordinary man.

whatawaste

December 12th, 2010 6:22pm Report this comment

If the coalition goes ahead with the HS2 rail link between London and Birmingham, the Conservatives will be de-railed. If the cabinet ministers from Buckinghamshire do not resign they will be toast at the next election as the local parties will deselect the MPs.

The business case for this fiasco is very poor. Who in hell wants to travel into London to then get a very expensive train to the `centre of Birmingham? In the 19th century it made sense to have termini stations in central London, but in the 21st? get real. If Eurostar closed its rail station in Kent leaving St Pancras as the only option cross channel ferry would boom.

I live in the Chilterns and normally placid people are quite livid. The country middle classes will take the tax rises and other fiscal pain, but destroying the countryside rouses them as nothing else can. Cameron has no idea what he is taking on - this could well be his Waterloo.

Michael

December 12th, 2010 6:49pm Report this comment

Why didn't you add Common Purpose to your list, mongoose. Or is just taken as read by the current powers.

Edward McLaughlin

December 12th, 2010 6:54pm Report this comment

'Anxiety' does not come near describing the feelings that many people have regarding immigration.

Try "Horror, fear, estrangement, hatred, resentment, bitterness, betrayal, disillusionment, anger, incredulity, abandonment, foreboding, disgust, alienation, bewilderment".

Verity

December 12th, 2010 6:56pm Report this comment

Robert Eve ...And don't forget Theresa May, who wants to ban the US preacher who had plans, subsequently cancelled, to burn the q'ran, from entering Britain. Given the absolute effluent that washes into Britain from the islamic world daily, I think banning a perfectly respectable American who simply has views that Theresa May doesn't agree with is unbridled lunacy.

Verity

December 12th, 2010 6:58pm Report this comment

"Cameron must head for the common ground."

No. Cameron must head for the exit.

dg

December 12th, 2010 8:17pm Report this comment

Cameron lost the election. He can't win the next one. He says he is pragmatic but he is ideological. Climate change, gay marriage, soft on crime, pro-EU... that's ideology!

Archie

December 12th, 2010 8:30pm Report this comment

So, Mr. Nelson, the politicians are out of touch with the electorate? And ypu've just uncovered that?

Ex-Tory voter

December 12th, 2010 8:41pm Report this comment

"Cameron ... regards himself as chairman of the board, his mission to keep everyone happy." If he doesn't keep the shareholders (ie the electorate) happy he'll be out. I thought Labour was disconnected with the Zeitgeist of the real world, but Cameron is just as bad.

Tron

December 12th, 2010 9:28pm Report this comment

Fraser, you make a great point about politicians believing that the media have the same views as the common people.
When an MP says what the people really think they usually lose their job. This started with Enoch Powell and has got worse ever since.

Verity

December 12th, 2010 9:31pm Report this comment

Boudicca beat me to it. Common Purpose is the base on which Shameron bases all his policies. The Common Purpose agenda is behind all his "decisions". (In quotes, because they are not his decisions. He's just along for the ride, and the inevitable promotion to the EUSSR top table.

mongoose

December 12th, 2010 10:05pm Report this comment

middle ground; middle way; middle-of-the-road; middlebrow; middleman; middle age; Middle Ages; Middlesex; Middleton! (Julia, not Kate); squeezed middle; excluded middle.

AlexK

December 12th, 2010 10:11pm Report this comment

' Ladbrokes has odds of 5-2 of an election next year'

Maybe you should place your money with Victor Chandler and get 9-2.

TGF UKIP

December 12th, 2010 11:11pm Report this comment

Who are you trying to fool, Fraser? This is nowt more than your usual specious pro Cameron spin.

The Keith Joseph Memorial Lecture on which you rest your fraudulent case for Cameron being not what he demonstrably is, takes place early in the year. Not surprising, therefore, given his intention to con the Stupid Party later in the year into believing he was in the Thatcher mold that he should trot out a speech to reinforce that con.

Caneron is what he is, a glib but unconvincing, metropolitan, progressive. Indeed, Cameron told you and the rest of us precisely what he was in his interview with his fellow One Continenter, Oborne, in October 09 "A relatively liberal One Nation Conservative" who wants "a fairer. greener, MORE EQUAL society".

Cameron lost the election firstly because he looks, sounds and behaves like a PR man and, quite rightly, the British public sussed that out and found him unconvincing and unworthy of their trust and secondly because with his instinctive nepotism, and despite it being an overwhelmingly economic election, he had as the economic messenger his best mate who the voters found even less likeable and less convincing.

Also noteworthy is that in your recital of where the country's common ground diverges from your Westminster middle ground, that you deliberately choose to make no mention of "the climate change" scam despite the overwhelming scepticism and the huge electricity tax rises coming the nation's way to pay for the posturing self-indulgence of your class. No great surprise there though given your past form of making sure no mention of this issue arises in either the house mag nor on this blog.

normanc

December 13th, 2010 7:02am Report this comment

After Cameron loses the next election (whenever it will be - my money, at 5-2, is on September after the Lib Dems disintegrate when the May elections/referendum wipe them out and their hope of AV) what should the Conservative Party do?

Move further to the left? Abandon even the pretence of conservatism? Another leader who believes in big government and sharing the proceeds of growth?

Cameron is a busted flush, that 'son of Brown' Ed Miliband's Labour is ahead in the polls surely shows that to even the most myopic media pundit. We need to start planning for the future and useless theories about middle this and common that isn't going to do any better next time around than it has done this.

Pramston

December 13th, 2010 7:59am Report this comment

Tim - Crime has been falling for years. Pretty much in keeping with the prison population increases. The proposed changes to the CJ system are not about a better way to reduce crime but rather a better way to reduce spending. Perhaps on that basis they are justifiable, it would be nice for Ken Clarke to be honest for once though; he is clearly using the 'prison doesn't work' brigade as useful stooges in preparing the ground. Crime will rise.

Roy

December 13th, 2010 8:42am Report this comment

Cameron has cooked his goose. He could have won the election but ignored the majority of the peoples opinions in order to spring his own deluded agenda. Like Brown, he has had his brief spot in the sun, he deserves no better than to reap his reward ... demotion to the political dung heap.

Verityred

December 13th, 2010 10:04am Report this comment

The Tories got nowhere from their saggy old right position, just like Labour with their old left clodhoppers. The country has changed, the angry squad on here are living in the past.

Like it or hate it, you have to adapt or sink into an old Tory/old Labour mire.

oldtimer

December 13th, 2010 10:13am Report this comment

Cameron is a Green in Conservative clothing.

His endorsement of Copenhagen, before it collapsed; his subsequent mourning of its collapse (failure was a "strategic mistake" per the recent Security and Strategy Review which chopped the srmed forces); his appointment of Huhne to run the Climate and Energy dept and to negotiate a doubling (from 0.7% to 1.4% of GDP) of foreign aid to "combat global warming" at Cancun. How long, I wonder, before this is announced as official government policy? His addiction to wind farms despite the fact that they are demonstrably uneconomic and can only survive on subsidies. Although he talks the talk of localism, the reality is that more and more power has been transferred to Europe and, if Cameron had his way, to the unaccountable UN super-bureaucracies envisaged by the draft Copenhagen treaty and still pined for by the Cancun delegates.

2trueblue

December 13th, 2010 10:48am Report this comment

The illusion that Liebore would be re-elected at this time is just that. We would all lose our shirts, totally. It is wonderful to think that getting rid of Cameron or the coalition will solve anything, it will bring everything to a stop. The UK will be so changed, and not for the better.
But never mind, the media are so excited about the idea, it must be good. This is the vacuous media who keep our great populous ignorant of reality. And we let them.

If there is another election sooner rather than later, expect one thing for sure, more people will be out there voting and the polls will be worthless. There will be no lovely trends to follow, no cute sound bites to savour over. Most importantly it will probably be over for the UK as we know it. There is only one show in town and the script is being written on the go. That is because there are new characters. No one has mentioned who the filler in for Cameron will be???? No, easier just to bash.

david lewis

December 13th, 2010 12:35pm Report this comment

I am a debutant"Spectator" blogger and what a starnge world this appears to be. Has it not occurred to some of the more Hard Right commentators here that Cameron is actually pursuing a political position that might be popular. Namely returning the Conservative Party to the political centre- its natural home and one from where it was successful between 1922 and 1992. Cameron's political antecedents are Burke and Disraeli and his Coalitionist policy reflects this. It is "empiricism tempered by prejudice". Surely better half a Tory in power than an out-of-power extinct position of interest to historians of the "swivel-eyed" political fringe...

Simon Stephenson

December 13th, 2010 5:02pm Report this comment

david lewis : 12.35pm

I think what some on here believe is that politicians are not there to kowtow to the majority, because doing so will send the nation down the pan sooner than you can say knife. Rather, politicians are there to make well-reasoned, logical and good sense decisions that the majority couldn't make, because in numerical terms it is not rational nor logical nor possessed of good sense.

The tragedy for this country is that the education standards have fallen so low that ever-increasing numbers of people fail to realise this.

To some of us, following the central majority is the pathway to disaster, and we want nothing to do with a political leadership that chooses this as its mission in life.

Fergus P:ickering

December 13th, 2010 5:28pm Report this comment

You know, Simon Stephenson, you sound exactly like a leftie. There are some things so silly that only an intellectual could possibly believe them and your post is a good example of just that. Piss off with your superior education and your long snotty nose. David Lewis, I salute you, sir.

Simon Stephenson

December 13th, 2010 6:32pm Report this comment

Fergus Pickering : 5.28pm

I'm arguing that representative democracy is a far better way of making decisions than is direct democracy. It's a point of view to which I am entitled. As is yours.

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