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Wednesday, 15th December 2010

A "two stone" solution to the Euro crisis will unbalance the coalition

Daniel Korski 7:01pm

Whatever the British government wants, moves are now afoot on the Continent to address some of the structural problem with the Euro. They may in the end lead to some form of fiscal federalism.

So far they are not supported by Angela Merkel, the key decision-maker, who worries constantly about the court in Karlsruhe, which has set clear limits on further European integration. But they are said to be supported, at least in part, by Finance Minister Wolfgang Shauble.

Writing in the Financial Times, Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Peer Steinbrück argue that the EU needs "a more radical, targeted effort to end the current uncertainty, and provide stronger support for the future of Europe’s common institutions. This must also protect the European Central Bank from becoming Europe’s “bad bank”, and ensuring its credibility and independence in guarding a strong euro."

What do they propose? "A combination of a haircut for debt holders, debt guarantees for stable countries and the limited introduction of European-wide bonds in the medium term, accompanied by more aligned fiscal policies. These measures would only work together; none alone would restore stability."

European bonds have been issued before but European finance ministers have rejected their permanent introduction. The alternatives - increasing the European budget, debt restructuring and greater fiscal coordination - are not favoured by Eurozone leaders either. On the other hand, few European leaders will want to oversee the collapse of the Euro. So many will probably accept some smaller form of the "Two Stone" package - i.e that proposed by Steinmeier and Steinbrück.

This is the last thing Messrs Cameron and Clegg need. Any move towards European fiscal integration will threaten the coalition and increase the pressure on the Prime Minister by the 1922 committee.

Filed under: Angela Merkel (91 more articles) , Coalition (2088 more articles) , Conservatives (2312 more articles) , Euro (190 more articles) , Europe (752 more articles) , European Union (163 more articles) , Germany (146 more articles) , Liberal Democrats (1155 more articles) , Tory right (71 more articles) , UK politics (5406 more articles)

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yank

December 15th, 2010 7:32pm Report this comment

Heh. A haircut for debtholders, but then more debt is to be issued. Only amongst the Brussels crowd could that actually be mouthed. You'd get laughed out of town, anywhere else.

And I'd love to be a fly on the wall when the EU twits tell the Federal Reserve it's about to take a haircut on all those loans. Yeah, that'll sell well to the American electorate, I'm certain. And surely we can count on Obama's loyal opposition to keep silent about it all, can't we? All those helpful Tea Party types would like nothing better than to fill the foreign trough, right?

Kiss the euro goodbye. It's dead as disco. And it matters not what "European leaders" want. I have the over/under date for Frau Merkel to back the deutschmark trucks up to the banks as June 2012. Some limpalong financing to the PIGS up until then... to no avail... then BOOM. The only question is... will the frogs beat them to the punch?

JohnPage

December 15th, 2010 8:06pm Report this comment

It wouldn't be "European" fiscal integration, it would be eurozone fiscal integration. And it ain't going to happen, because national taxpayers across the eurozone would boot out national politicians who followed "integrated" orders, especially as in some countries they would lead to decline and depression, and in others to taxpayers' adopting ever increasing liabilities for those countries.

paulg

December 15th, 2010 8:09pm Report this comment

This is all in your head Daniel, your analysis, loses touch with reality on a daily basis.

A political project founded without reference to geo/economic reality will be destroyed by, well! reality. Its over daniel its only a matter of time, London and New York are moving against it, no one can stop it now.

TomTom

December 15th, 2010 8:10pm Report this comment

The EZB has made clear it needs more capital ie. it does not want to buy any more junk bonds. Germans have $513 billion invested in mutual funds and life insurance policies in junk bonds from PIIGS.

Merkel cannot accede to anything and Schauble is a sick old man on the Abschussrampe - he is history.

The best option for Germany would be Peer Steinbrueck as Bundeskanzler - Merkel has been a waste of space and done far less than Schroeder which is astounding. She has destroyed the CDU as the party of economic rationality and as Kohl's chosen successor has continued his profligate policies of spend to bankruptcy and tax to ruin.

Merkel is dead and her defence minister - aristo Guttenberg fancies himself as her successor with his Bismarckian wife, but he is too lightweight and the CDU will be the junior partner in an SPD coalition next time around unless the New Anti-Euro-Pro_Germany Party is formed before then

Senor Frizby

December 15th, 2010 8:26pm Report this comment

I see many benefits for mainland European countries to operate as one federal entity. The UK would do well to steer well clear of integration. The EU would (will) end up robbing us of our dynamism as a nation - what there is left of it - and ruin would follow.

Yow Min Lye

December 15th, 2010 8:56pm Report this comment

How interesting that German courts set "clear limits on further European integration" whilst ours just constantly suck up to it.

Baron Pippin II

December 15th, 2010 10:10pm Report this comment

fiscal union and only fiscal union can fix the Euro for good, anything else falls short, the markets know it.

will the European unwashed swallow the final nail to Europe’s coffin of federalisation? Will the Tories here have the guts, consult the people on the future of the undemocratic construct?

Dennis Churchill

December 15th, 2010 10:13pm Report this comment

The European political class and the British Division in particular, can’t keep putting off the inevitable need to consult their electorates on whether the project towards ever greater integration leading to a Federal State continues.
This year, next year...

Vulture

December 16th, 2010 9:04am Report this comment

Your opening sentence, Herr Korski, epitomises the arrogance of the unelected Eurocrat: "Whatever the British Govt. wants moves are now afoot on the continent to address some of the structural problems of the Euro".

In other words, the democratically elected British Govt. counts for nought. That is what is wrong with the EU in a nutshell.

A later sentence, when you talk abt the
'German Finance Minister Wolfgang Shauble' betrays your habitual ignorance of what you profess to write about. The man's name is
Schauble, and he has been around for decades so you should be familiar with him..

Your views on all subjects on which you opine can therefore be safely discounted and ignored.

dorothy wilson

December 16th, 2010 10:22am Report this comment

"Events, dear boy, events".

Whatever daft scheme the politicians come up with, it will be the markets that decide the fate of the euro. And the single currency will only survive whilst the German people and not just their politicians are prepared to accept the cost of the bail outs. Once they are pushed beyond the tipping point the euro will collapse.

It is to be hoped that the BoE and our Coalition Government have given at least some thought to that happening. My bet would be that it is inevitable - sooner or later.

exile on euro street

December 16th, 2010 1:28pm Report this comment

Vulture - it's Schäuble, don't forget the a-umlaut. But you're right, Danial Corsky should check his spelling.

Banker with a death grip

December 16th, 2010 2:30pm Report this comment

The bond market holds the national debts of Eurozone and other EU countries to a value which exceeds the strength of the collected Governments probably ten times over.

Any move to cross-guarantee or to dilute or haircut will fail, because the bond holders will claim this is a default and demand repayment. There simply is not enough capital under control of the various Governments to fight this.

The only way out is to split the euro into central and outer bands, or to scrap it. The latter route would be far less politically damaging than the media suggest as most of the good peoples of Europe recognise it has failed and caused their economies to tank, or to pay for the failures of others. It is tme for the politicians to catch up.

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