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Thursday, 16th December 2010

Miliband’s Oldham dilemma

David Blackburn 2:59pm

Joy. It will be a campaigning Christmas, now that the Oldham by-election is likely to be held on 13th January. The Labour party is much exercised. The permanently outraged Chris Bryant says it is a ‘disgrace’ that politics will sully the ‘major Christian festival of the year’ – the lapsed cleric seems to have forgotten the election’s proximity to Easter. More importantly, fewer students will be in Oldham on 13th January to serve ‘judgement’ on the government, as Hilary Benn put it in the Commons this morning before adding that the government is ‘running scared’.

By-elections are determined by local issues, as one would expect. But Benn’s statement perhaps reveals how Miliband intends to use the campaign to define his leadership. ‘Friend of the students’ is an effective pose for the opportunist. I don’t expect Miliband to be as naive or fanciful as successive Liberal Democrat, not least because he has to commit to a policy other than straight opposition. But Miliband is fixated on the tuition fee settlement and the abolition of educational maintenance allowances, and concentrated on them at yesterday’s PMQs and in a TV interview today.

The Staggers’ George Eaton argues that Miliband’s quiet start is a deliberate attempt not to raise expectations. If so, it doesn’t say much for the leader’s confidence. He will have to offer coherence beyond sympathy for students throughout this by election.  He should be heed Ed Balls’ advice (if not Balls’ exact sentiments) and talk about the economy. Balls told the Daily Politics yesterday:

‘The issue is can we persuade the country the conservatives have got the economy wrong. We have not succeeded in doing that yet, that is our challenge in the coming years. Personally I’d rather he had done a second question on the economy. I think it’s really important that we get this message out there.’

Miliband has no such message at present.

Filed under: By-election (41 more articles) , Economy (1022 more articles) , Ed Balls (366 more articles) , Ed Miliband (698 more articles) , Labour (2143 more articles) , Labour leadership (387 more articles) , Spending cuts (626 more articles) , Tuition fees (97 more articles) , UK politics (5406 more articles)

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DZ

December 16th, 2010 3:06pm Report this comment

Seriously off-topic: the sliding adverts on either side of the screen page are a SERIOUS dis-incentive to reading the on-line Speccie. Not to mention distracting, although I have no idea what the garbage is advertising.

Sally Chatterjee

December 16th, 2010 3:11pm Report this comment

Good news that locals can get a quick replacement. I remember Labour toying with by-election dates in the past to ensure the dates suited them, ie delaying for as long as possible.

During the campaign Miliband will have to watch out, if Balls is a more effective opposition figure then plenty can change.

stepney

December 16th, 2010 3:25pm Report this comment

Methinks it won't be the last time we'll need to question Ed's judgement:

The latest Survation poll shows that the student demonstrations cost students support. The change in support since the demonstrations has been negative, down 13%:

The public don't like it. Good call Ed.

Del

December 16th, 2010 3:35pm Report this comment

Maybe he can remind his student friends that it was his Government that introduced fees in the first place wilst having run an election campaign arguing that Labour would not introduce fees. He might also like to remind those same student friends that his Labour Government then increased fees having said they would not do so. Labour new that once fees were introduced that they would be increased like every other to suit the day, they will increase in the future and one day it will be Labour who increase it - the genie is out of the bottle and Labour made the arguement.

TrevorsDen

December 16th, 2010 3:35pm Report this comment

Well Balls knows all about getting economies wrong.

Something in his remarks hints to me that Mr Ed Balls is nowhere near as clever as he thinks he is.

AlanL

December 16th, 2010 3:36pm Report this comment

Ed has a "blank sheet of paper" on policy because he has now crossed out every policy in the manifesto he wrote that involved spending borrowed money.

Now that the public have wised up, every spending commitment will be countered with "how will you pay for this: borrow, tax or cut?".

I can see why he would rather be silent.

wise ol' sage

December 16th, 2010 4:04pm Report this comment

I agree with DZ completely. It's not so much the adverts themselves, more the way they slide. Other sites make adverts that stay in the same place as you move the page, but these ones move fractions afterwards, making them highly irritating.

TomTom

December 16th, 2010 4:11pm Report this comment

Be nice if low turnout and disillusionment among voters produce a wildcard result

JGS

December 16th, 2010 4:13pm Report this comment

"The permanently outraged Chris Bryant": what a splendid description!

Simon Stephenson

December 16th, 2010 4:22pm Report this comment

"Balls told the Daily Politics yesterday:

‘The issue is can we persuade the country the conservatives have got the economy wrong. We have not succeeded in doing that yet, that is our challenge in the coming years. Personally I’d rather he had done a second question on the economy. I think it’s really important that we get this message out there.’"

What this poisonous piece of dog poo must be made to confront is, after Labour spent 13 years deliberately and purposefully undermining the structure of an economy based on private ownership of income and wealth, that of course a non-socialist government is, by his definition, going to "get the economy wrong". It's no good allowing socialists like Balls to pass themselves off as people with better ideas about re-kindling private sector growth - because nothing they have ever done has been about making the private sector more healthy, and neither will anything they might be planning to do in the future.

Don't allow them to fight in camouflage. Every contest, every speech, every announcement, every statement - make sure that they contain a clear message that Labour are socialists, and that everything they plan to do will be hostile to privare prosperity. Socialists - hostile to YOU!

JohnOfEnfield

December 16th, 2010 4:24pm Report this comment

Yes - I too am seriously annoyed by the sliding adverts.

I'm now on a "viewing strike" until it's fixed!

DavidDP

December 16th, 2010 4:33pm Report this comment

"'Friend of the students’ is an effective pose for the opportunist"

Until someone asks him to commit to getting rid of fees, which, having said he would, now he won't.

Terry Needham

December 16th, 2010 5:12pm Report this comment

I agree with DZ

Liz Brown

December 16th, 2010 5:17pm Report this comment

both Ed's talk utter balls - am not sure which is the most odious

Chris lancashire

December 16th, 2010 5:43pm Report this comment

Milliband is steering clear of the economy because the memory of the mess Labour made is too fresh in the mind. His personal contribution was also overwhelming. Both inconvenient facts when he stands up to deliver his words of wisdom.

yank

December 16th, 2010 5:44pm Report this comment

Well, it would seem this "by-election" will work out sorta like the "off-year" elections hereabouts, which are generally a mini-referendum on an incumbent party, in part if not in whole. The fractional change from historical performance of that district is the measure of referendum. If it swings significantly, we have an (the?) answer as to the incumbent party's status.

Yow Min Lye

December 16th, 2010 6:17pm Report this comment

So New Labour in opposition have now discovered a love of Christianity and its 'festivals'. Glory Be!

Baron

December 16th, 2010 7:13pm Report this comment

Labour will take the seat, I reckon, easily.

Rabyrover

December 16th, 2010 8:38pm Report this comment

The forthcoming bye election has had much coverage on North West TV. Most of it has focused on Labour and the Lib Dems. Tonight was typical: Miliband with many Labour supporters, Cable with many Lib Dem supporters. The conservative candidate was shown alone in an empty street. BBC bias, or Conservative apathy? You tell me.

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