Charles Krauthammer's Crazy, Lazy Complacency
Alex Massie 8:10pmCharles Krauthammer isn't as reliably and consistently wrong as Bill Kristol, but he's also determined to see the sun shining for Republicans. Thus:
The Obama coattails of 2008 are gone. The expansion of the electorate, the excitement of the young, came in uniquely propitious Democratic circumstances and amid unparalleled enthusiasm for electing the first African-American president.
November '08 was one-shot, one-time, never to be replicated. Nor was November '09 a realignment. It was a return to the norm -- and definitive confirmation that 2008 was one of the great flukes in American political history.
Now this may be true. But one may also say that with unemployment climbing to more than 10% of the population no incumbent party can expect to escape a backlash. GDP may have grown at 3.5% last quarter and the job-loss rate slowed, but these are still pretty bleak times for the American economy. Just as I didn't think it was George W Bush's "fault" in 2008 so I decline to blame the current President for these more recent grim numbers.
So, if unemployment remains so frighteningly high and confidence hasn't returned by next summer then, yes, the Democrats will take an even greater hammering at the mid-terms than is customarily the case for the incumbent party. (2002 was an obvious, largely 9/11-related exception to this otherwise iron rule).
But that doesn't mean that the GOP is then favourite to triumph in 2012. Apart from anything else, all Krauthammer has really proved is that Obama is more popular than his party. But, guess what? Obama will be on the ballot - like, you know, in person and for real - in 2012. He wasn't this week and nor, despite the temptation to believe otherwise, will he be on the ballot next year.
In other words it is, to be charitable, vastly too early to call his election "one of the great flukes in American political history".
Krauthammer may be right to think that the US is and always will be a "centre-right" country. But if that's true then the emphasis should be on the "centre" part of that notion, not the "right". To repeat: only one Big-C conservative has won the White House in the past 70 years. And that victory came after four years of perhaps the most hapless President since poor old Warren Harding. In other words, if Obama's victory was predicated upon a set of extreme and unusual circumstances - which, in some ways, it was - then so was Ronald Reagan's. Oddly, we rarely hear about this...
Krauthammer, however, would doubtless like the GOP to think more about the "right" than the "centre" bit of centre-right. There's not too much evidence to support the notion that this is where the public wants to be. At least not yet. This, like so much else, may yet change. But at the moment Krauthammer's breezy assumption that everything will revert to "normal" and the GOP will soon be back in control seems based on not too much more than wishful thinking.
I dare say that after the 1994 mid-terms conservatives thought they would win back the Presidency. But Bill Clinton didn't turn out to be a one-term President. That doesn't mean history will repeat itself but it also doesn't mean that it won't.
[Hat-tip: Marbury]
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DavidDP
November 6th, 2009 8:25pm Report this commentIn most countries, the election of the opposition when the economy is screwed under the incumbent is rather usual.
How, then, is the election of Obama a fluke?
ndm
November 6th, 2009 8:51pm Report this commentFor the benefit of those who have never read M.J. Rosenberg's story about Krauthammer bellowing - here it is.
De Rigueur
November 6th, 2009 9:16pm Report this commentOh for God's sake, you woolie-haired half liberal get lost.
I have no idea why the Speccy tolerates your miserable meanderings except for the fact you Dad used to write a few bits and bobs for it years ago.
David Williamson
November 6th, 2009 9:27pm Report this commentObama is the most hapless President since poor old Jimma Carta - will maybe turn out to be even more hapless. And Alex Massie may be the most hapless propagandist since Bagdad Bob.
Frank P
November 6th, 2009 9:35pm Report this commentMassie, In my long life I've seen sour grapes dished up from 'journalists' on a variety of dishes from silver salvers to paper throw-aways; but a lightweight hack such as yourself, a leftie masquerading on a once conservative blog, criticising Charles K, an accomplished political journalist/commentator TV pundit, who has more nous in his little finger and more writing ability in the same digit that you have in your entire body, including your Irish jig, is utterly risible. Excuse me while I go take a leak, otherwise I will piss myself with deeply cynical laughter. Get some in! You dick-head!
Frank P
November 6th, 2009 9:38pm Report this commentndm
If Charles lost his rag with a rabbi, I'm sure it was utterly justified. Righteous anger can be a timely and justified riposte at times. But your post is at least consistent with many previous posts: twaddle.
Vern
November 6th, 2009 10:27pm Report this commentThis is an exceptionally weak post, even by Alex M's standards. Methinks young Massie (actually the same age as me, but he comes off like a student journalist) having spouted at great length on the new era in US politics (from the political epicentre of the Scottish borders, natch) is now suffering from a bit of cognitive dissonance as he is discovering that he has been comprehensively wrong about most things. Not an easy discovery to make I shall grant thee, but this jab at Krauthammer is exceedingly poor. Jealous of Mr. K's profile, cash and superior acumen, Alex? Or just wrong as usual?
Vern
November 6th, 2009 10:40pm Report this commentActually, reading between the lines here I see this post as a desperate cry for attention, of which Mr. Massie receives very little and Mr. Krauthammer rather a lot. Sour grapes nails it.
ndm
November 6th, 2009 11:37pm Report this commentGiven his use of words like methinks and thee Vern's assertion that he is the same age as Alex Massie might be wishful thinking.
NJM
November 7th, 2009 12:12am Report this commentThe evil-neocon-fascist Charles Krauthammer would be a much better columnist, writer & human being, if he wasn't confined to a wheelchair every day of his life ;)
Hat-Tip: Joe Klein
http://tiny.cc/xbfXO
Augustus
November 7th, 2009 12:16am Report this commentObama's myth makers have created a new persona for a naive segment of a now bewildered population. And as with all false images the reality of the man is becoming more evident every day. His failed attempts to 'fundamentally transform' the Greatest Nation on Earth. High unemployment,
massive and unecessary government intrusion
into the daily lives of Americans, and his disdain for the country that offered him the ultimate opportunity shows his lack of intelligence. His image no longer matches his campaign rhetoric, and America is starting to question him and his puppet masters. His own actions show him to be self-absorbed, with no true compassion for his fellow man, no reverence for his country. He is now already like an anti-hero of fiction. Soon he will be no more than a figure of fun.
Vern
November 7th, 2009 2:44am Report this commentOd's bodkins, ndm but verily I speake the truth, just as sure as Sir Massie, he of the curious barnet, blows hot and harde from his asse-trumpet and passes off such noxious gusts as knightly wisdom. Zounds!
Beefeater
November 7th, 2009 6:17am Report this commentndm:
Obama could learn a thing or two from Krauthammer about not sitting quietly taking garbage from a sermoniser.
So could we all.
Conservative Cabbie
November 7th, 2009 8:48am Report this commentFirst off, I don't know why this post has received the vitriol it has. It's largely wrong in it's conclusions, but well argued and reasonable.
Alex is right to doubt GOP hopes in 2012, although I don't agree with his reasoning. The reason Republicans will struggle is the dearth of decent opposition to Obama. Huckabee and Romney are too lightweight, Gingrich has blown it on his NY-23 moment and I'm not convinced yet by Pawlenty. The other possibility is one I like, Sarah Palin, but to be frank her favourability is so low, that unless she turns it around drastically, she won't win either.
But there is one, possibly two, very strong candidates out there in Mitch Daniels and Bob McDonnell. Daniels, as governor of Indiana has proved that he has the popularity to beat Obama (as Indiana went blue, Daniels defied that verdict), and he has proved himself to be a successful executive as Indiana fairs quite well in the recession. The other one is Bob McDonnell although as he has recently won the Virginia race, 2012 will probably be too soon.
Alex, would either of those two change your thoughts on the 2012 race?
Alex is also right to say that there has only been one Conservative President in Reagan. However, what he and the Frum-ite wing are ignoring or forgetting is that both GW and Nixon required conservative support to get elected. When Republicans ran the type of Frum-ite moderate (McCain, Ford, Dole), the GOP lost badly.
Finally, whilst I agree that Obama's personal popularity defies his lower approval rating, I think Alex's Clinton comparison isn't necessarily accurate. clinton was President during an economic boom. However, as Paul Krugman notes, the eight Clinton years saw average growth of 3.7%. That only brought unemployment down by 3.5% over the same period. America will still have high unemployment come 2012.
Obama was elected partly on hope, on not being Bush and because he was a novelty. None of those will be in play in 2012 and I doubt the enthusiasm levels will be the same either.
daniel maris
November 7th, 2009 1:24pm Report this commentWere said gentlemen and forsooth gentle ladies in these parts verily to make sport with such antique discourse as doth take their pleasure, wherein such a fancy would scarcely be accounted an heinous offence to the common good, would not rather polite conversation and clever construction voided of all contumeliness or other vices of the pontificatory classes, not be an adornment of great worth unto this blog, much as a humped oaf may wear a bejewelled gown?
Rhoda Klapp
November 8th, 2009 10:58am Report this commentCC, we had a fine roasting going on here, and you had to come and spoil it with reasoned discussion.
Rhoda Klapp
November 8th, 2009 11:01am Report this commentOh, and might I suggest the GOP candidate for 2012 currently may have a national profile like that of Barack Obama in 2005? Unknown, pretty much. I hope so, for I don't reckon the chances of any of this bunch.
DRH
November 11th, 2009 11:57pm Report this commentwaitaminnit.... the Krauthammer article wasn't about the chances of Obama being reelected, it was an explanation that the expected re-*alignment* didn't happen. Not the same thing...
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