How it's going right for Ed Miliband

Liz Brown

Are you feeling OK Fraser? I only ask as I find Millipede minor insufferable

seb

Ed’s latest weapon is branding: not New Labour but Fluffy Labour. He offers, of course, “a broad, open, progressive majority built on a coalition of values.”

So you're saying Ed's offering sweet eff all. Any kid in a debating competition could come up with a superior class of drivel to this. But you're right if you imagine Ed might be in with a chance some time in the next four years. He's been on the Marr programme telling the nation that Labour did not overspend. This comforts the millions of deficit deniers in the nation who are absolutely clueless about the mess we're in and like to be told, by Panda Boy or any other congenital liar you can imagine, that the binge-ing will soon recommence and, probably, that it'll all be easily funded by cancelling bonuses for bankers. Bankers as a class, of course, are solely responsible for any and all bad things happening in Britain today. [Source - The Collected Wit and Wisdom of Ed.]

In other words, Doctor Ed has pronounced this to be true: the patient only appears to be dying of terminal cirrhosis of the liver. Heavy boozing is back on the agenda. Whoopee.

Bernard Wright

Progress cannotbbe made without a policy and this country has never had one

RKing

Blimey Fraser I do believe that you have crossed over!!
Strangely I don't see it like you do I see Milliband as a useless uninspiring opportunist who looks like Wallace and sounds like Jon Pertwee.

I just do not believe that HE actually knows which direction he is going and he is just trying to pick up on sound-bites with no thought out policies.

For christ sake Fraser do better than this!!!

Schoolboy Tripe!!

les

You must be still over the limit from last night!

ep

Ed Miliband is ace. Remember that.

charles hercock

Problem with boring (point 5) is that we actually want to be inspired again having lived through the depressing era of Gordon Brown and the tarnishing Cameron's progressive failings.The last thing we want is a latter day Major who could not control his party(except Edwina)

Nicholas

Oh dear. The Westminster bubble must be so starved of oxygen that it is leading to brain damage.

Son of Brown has miraculously managed to distance himself from his horrific legacy (walking corpse Brown and the ghastly charade formerly known as New Labour) mainly because of the leftist inspired and leftist reported frisson over the "progressive" betrayal of the Lib Dems. I don't know who these 1,000 polled people are who now seem to represent the polictical will of Britain but I know I'm not one of them.

If the media, and you, continue to speculate about, pore over and report the propaganda of Son of Brown's prospects then British politics will continue to be about propaganda, rather than about truth and honesty. Toby Young, your deputy editor, manages a far better analysis of the reality of resurgent leftism in the narrow confines of the education issue, whilst you are puffing up Son of Brown on the basis of inflation as a weapon in his armoury? (And "weaponise"? Yuk)

And where does this promise of inflation originate? Memories are short but somehow I did not expect the Spectator to pick up one of Labour's whitewash brushes. Apparently we are now to believe that an eight month old coalition struggling to keep the plates spinning is more contemptible than 13 years of gross economic negligence, incompetence and malevolence. And that salvation lies in the weird looking protogé of the man most responsible?

Strange times indeed if the media let Son of Brown pick up one of the fruits of his party's economic record and use it to beat a coalition struggling to repair the damage. Stranger still if the Spectator shouts encouragement.

In the last decade I have come to believe that, collectively, the British must be really, really stupid. But this takes the biscuit.

teledu

Cameron's only got himself to blame. UKIP was the 2nd most popular party in the EUSSR elections prior to the general election. Had Cameron honoured his Lisbon constitution referendum pledge, he'd have got the majority he sought. But he didn't. Just because he's clever and well educated doesn't mean he's incapable of being as thick as pig sh1t.

Publius

First politics is replaced by X-Factor style personality. Now personality is replaced, it seems, by non-personality.

No policies, no personality, no nothing. What's to engage with?

Nothing but Hothouse babble just for the sake of it.

Mike, Brighton

Fraser, all you are basically saying is for the dismal Millipede to do and say nothing and watch the defections of LibDum supporters and overall government unpopularity do the rest.
Yes but. It's a strategy that will work for maybe 2 years. At some point prior to the next election Labour will have to say what they would have done. Even though their activists and the Unions are pushing for a "No Tory cuts" strategy it just isn't credible. When it becomes bleedin apparent that Labour would have cut spending by at least as much as the Coaltion their goose is cooked. Doubly so if the economy improves.

Erica Blair

Calm down dear. 'Miliband a dismal actor'? take a look in the mirror Fraser,

smileyken

My family have voted conservative in most elections for generations, none of us will ever vote for a party led by cameron or his cronies. They are not conservatives as we understand the term. Go figure.

emil

2) So 66,000 would have voted LibDem in Oldham before the coalition?

Nick Cohen

But Ay (funny name, but there you are), you make my point for me without realising it. The first assumption of every one who keeps up with the news about an attack on a British MP was that the assailant would be an Islamist. Even if they were wrong, and as you know they weren't in the case of poor old Stephen Timms, it was not an unreasonable supposition given the psycopathic hatred pumped out by radical Islam. The assumption in Arizona was that the killer's mind had been filled with the extremism of the American right. Those who thought that were wrong, but their assumption was not unreasonable. That is why the US conservative movement is in such trouble. Senisble people, who might agree with its policies if they were presented rationally, look at it and think "nutjobs".

Anthony Makara

Many have underestimated Ed Miliband, the man who was first out of the traps in declaring New Labour to be Biomortia.

Ed Miliband was quick to detox the brand, to absorb blame, and most important of all had the political sense to lay low for long enough to allow the Coalition to take the brickbats over cuts, ensuring that public memory of the Brown years quickly faded.

It is now time to take Ed Miliband seriously, the much predicted lurch to the left has not happened and cannot take place now Miliband has openly anchored himself to the centre-ground. The promise not to promise too much shows Miliband isn't going to dole out ammunition to his opponents.

Those who mocked Mr Miliband, considering him a lightweight, must now think again.

Nick

Milliband's personal poll ratings as a party leader are significantly below those of Clegg and Cameron.

Labour is popular and polling at 40%, not Milliband.

Robert

The Labour party is ahead in the Polls because more people think it nearer to Thatcher then Cameron.

The poorest are hit on all sides the sick the disabled, but what would I vote for right now not to sure it would not be labour thats for sure, Camerons Tories nope, Liberals well why not

RKing

Fraser next time you are having a chat with Ed why not ask him what part he played in signing the contract for the aircraft carriers and the wasted billions. Also the last minute contracts that were signed on NuLabs death bed.

Are you proud of these achievements Ed?

We would like to know!!

davidk

It's a Tory conceit that Cameron has the whip hand in PMQ's. It comes of being for so long mastered by Blair that anything approaching a decent performance is heralded as 'Flashman' having it all his own way with Miliband.

The truth is that Cameron has often looked sheepish, embarrassed and clunky in the Commons when confronted. And his big problem is that if he does go into one of his Flashman routines he looks for all the world what he indeed is: an insufferable, nanny-coddled Old Etonian out of touch with the ordinary people who's votes he covets.

graham

Politics should be about policies not personality.
Cameron's policy is to look after the wealthy.
Ed's policy is to look after people.

clever man

miliband is the next pm like it or not. the other two liers dont have any chance who will trust them again

Woody

The reason Labour are eight points ahead is because they get such soft interviews, particularly from the BBC. EdMi is up to his neck in the dirty dealings of the last governments and Gordon Brown was his mentor.
How helpful of the BBC to have as their main story the 2,000 (alleged) job cuts in Manchester when there is a by-election just a few miles down the road.
Even so-call conservatives (Messrs Montgomerie and Fraser) never go on tv/radio and bat for your own side. I've no intention of watching Sopel but no doubt yoy will say all the above (if your not interrupted a thousand times) and appear as though your supporting EdM.
The conservatives appear to have no friends in the media and quite frankly it shows.

strapworld

I have, for a long time, worried about the accuracy of opinion polls. I used to do Mori polls but was NEVER asked my views on politics, just rating companies etc. When I mentioned this some time ago on this blog many people wrote similar stories.

I believe they use the same people every time, knowing the result they will get.

Your 'essay' Mr Nelson does not mention the Milliband disaster on Radio Two, when he was actually confronted by ordinary people and not a carefully selected labour crowd!

That interview showed the true contempt the real people -away from the world you live in Mr Nelson- reside, and Milliband was lost for words!

But with all newspapers constantly criticising the coalition, save The Sun, who are moving away from Cameron over petrol prices,and the disgraceful BBC who will put a pro labour spin on anything!and Local Authorities who are frightening people in their area's with tales of cuts etc. Even Conservative councillors, within the LGA having a go at the one minister who is doing a brilliant job, Eric Pickles!

Yet Cameron walks around, with that strange smirk,ignoring the fact that he (a former PR man- can you believe) is not getting the story over to the people.

As he cannot rely on newspapers or the BBC for accurate reporting. I will suggest one way he could and should adopt immediately.

Ministerial Broadcasts! That will ensure the people get the truth. No need for a glossy propoganda advert. Just the truth on all the issues affecting us all.

Yes that will give the Labour Party the opportunity to answer BUT I do believe the Liberal Democrats could and should demand a Ministerial broadcast in their own right as a political party, after the Labour Party one, explaining why they support the coalition and kick back everything the Labour Party try to imply (If it is incorrect!).

It will certainly give the Liberal Democrats the opportunity to show they are a seperate party and would also strengthen, I believe, support for the coalition.

Alex

So you've been living on the moon for the last decade? Moron.

marc antony

Well, fatherhood can blunt the sharpest of edges. Ed would be a disaster as PM and this should be uppermost in the mind rather than rusks and "goo-goo".

A.J. Cowburn

All great party leaders and successful politicians wait on events and then turn them to their advantage. I know that throughout history there have been many examples of leaders who have taken advantage of this strategy. But the one who immediately springs to mind is Baldwin. In a sense he was a lazy politician. However he was a brilliant party manager and used this strategy on several occasions to trounce the opposition at the ballot box.

michael

Voters think with their pockets and the squeeze is on. Every body expects this government to be unpopular, and now it is.
Everybody was wowing about big figure house
prices, public sector contracts or wages, gold plated pensions bla bla.
The bill has arrived, Ed's only pitch is that not paying up is OK. Or perhaps 'fluffy' promises to pay later.
Promiseland...the fami-liar labour route to insolvency.

TrevorsDen

Labour are not ahead. They are behind the coalition parties.
And there is a limit to how far and how long facing in two ways can take Miliband.

Labour are saying the country can walk on water can defy economic gravity. Other questions in polls show the electorate do not believe that.

Its too early to write the LDs off --- the things they have been criticised for (well like what - student fees?) will not convert into the doom that labour propaganda and numpty lefty LDs predict.

Nor is the LD tendency as big as they the LDs would like to think. 10% is not an unreasonable share for them. The have an advantage in not having to face both ways if they chose to take it.

The coalition do not have to gain seats at the next general election to stay in power. The situation in 2015 will offer a different story to tell other than cuts.

Phil

As I think Napoleon was once quoted as saying on the field of battle to his aide "I never disturb an opponent making a catastrophic mistake"

The way I see it Milliband is praying that his opposite is making one on the economy and Cameron is probably fairly confident that Ed is by sitting on his arse in a cul de sac doing nothing but whinge - The question is "who is right?"

justathought

In response to your point 10 inflation is not out of control, and the home grown element of inflation is actually falling. Certainly we are importing inflation because of higher commodity prices on the back of an overheating Chinese economy. There is every possibility that those commodity prices could fall by 25% as China are clamping down on its banks.

A recent YouGov survey found 835,000 homes were in arrears on mortgages and rent. A rate hike which you are calling for will push push hardworking families into distress simply because of imported commodities not as a result of them asking for pay rises etc.

A further hike in rates will also further destabilise the the housing market resulting in more negative equity for millions. Todays Telegraph reports that over half of second homeowners are considering selling up so they will take a direct hit from the impact of a rate hike.

Remember also the effect any hike would have on Uk businesses.

I see not evidence of widespread concern over inflation, and nothing compared to the high anxiety of homeowners and struggling businesses.

Grumpy Optimist

It is all clear to me. The UK and even England is no longer Conservative and that Labour have used the 13 credit boom years to create fund a new majority. These are the great state dependants - those on benefit, state employees (especially those whose job is the administer to the underclass), quangos and great swathes of new immigrants. If Cameron and this coalition cannot turn it around, then the country is finished.

Charles

The problem is that Milliband is creating a falsse history: that Labour is not to blame for the deficit, but that the bankers are.

I am glad that Cameron is rowing back from balming the bankers (which played into Labour's hands) but the first point needs to be addressed as well.

It seems extaordinary to me that Milliband is allowed to repeat this fundamental lie again and again on the MSM without being challenge - but there again, what do I know?

Hugo Chav

Cam has just got to find the right words and phrases, then hammer them home. Blair & Brown were relentless with this, they so tarred the Tories with economic incompetence that the voters could see the message clearly. Since 2007 Cam has struggled to do this, housing prices not falling has probably hindered him as ZIRP & QE are bailing out the profligate.

Nadeem Walayat still has the clearest econmic timeline that faces the Coalition over the next 4 years:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23793.html

The good news is that the Great Reflation will continue over the coming years, but our living standards will wane due to competition for resources bidding up price.

At the end of the day, the Libservatives are in power to save the economy going Icelandic and putting us back on a sound footing after the massive debt binge engineered by New Labour and in particular Gordon Brown.

If Red Labour do win power in the next five years this country will be sunk as our economy will see a gradual capital flight and economic dynamism would be snuffed out. I find it amazing that Ed Milliband cannot grasp the basic workings of capital, job creation and prosperity, which is the quickest way to raise living standards of the lower paid. He is a died in the wool Commie. At times of stress that picture is worth bearing in mind.

Charles

Justathought:

I am not sure that a rate hike will have that much of an impact providing that it is 0.5% or 1.0%. Most of the banks SVRs are decoupled from the base rate already, and although there will likely be some increase, there is scope for the government to apply moral suasion. Those on fixed rates will not be impacted - the only people who will be impacted are thouse (like me) on base rate linked trackers.

Moreover, fundamentally, allowing people to keep too much debt by articifically pricing it low is not healthy for the economy - just look what happened to Japan when they tried this with their banks and companies

denis cooper

"I suspect it won’t be too long before Miliband starts to say “now is not the time to put up prices” - and encourage people to blame Osborne. As CoffeeHousers know, I blame Mervyn King and his merry men at the MPC. But voters facing 5 percent RPI inflation may not make this distinction."

Nor should they, if they read this reply from George Osborne to the latest open letter from Mervyn King:

http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/chx_letter_161110.pdf

Find me one passage in that letter, Fraser, where George Osborne

a) Expresses any concern that CPI inflation is consistently running so far above target;

b) Expresses any concern that public expectations of higher inflation may become self-fulfilling;

c) Questions the models being used by members of the MPC;

d) Questions the explanations offered by Mervyn King in his open letter;

e) Warns that he may act to curb inflation and the expectations of higher inflation, for example by a downwards adjustment of the inflation target.

You won't, because all that Osborne does in his letter is to more or less repeat the explanations King has given and agree with them.

It's difficult to avoid the conclusion that Osborne is perfectly content to see inflation running so far above his target, inflating the government's revenues in nominal terms and eroding the value of its debts in real terms, and it is his policy that this excessive inflation should continue and should not be curbed.

And it's also difficult to avoid the conclusion that Osborne is perfectly content to sit back and watch King take all the flak for this, with your assistance.

dg

Ed Miliband eats Blairites for breakfast.

John

Sorry Fraser your analyse is wrong, Milliband is a complete Twit. and your performance today on the Politics show was abysmal you allowed the guardian to walk aall over you

david

The real threat to the Coalition does not come from Miliband or the Labour party it will come from growing disenchantment on the right. Three notable milestones, a national newspaper, (ok its the Express but a national newspaper) has backed UKIP, Ukip has a financial backer Stewart Wheeler, UKIP retained it deposit in Old&Sad.

Warsi's criticism of the Right of the Tory Party and the constant sneering by the the Cameroons of their beliefs and values will, (see today's Mail on Sunday) inevitably drive some Tory MP's from the party into the arms of UKIP before the GE, wihich will be taking place well before 2015.

Events may be about to play into Miliband's hands and thats what matters.

Tiberius

Fraser: there is nothing wrong with you playing devil's advocate, whether on interest rates or the respective fortunes of Cameron and Miliband.

But Woody is right - nominal Tory supporters, who persistently moan, do their party no good in the face of a more united opponent. This has been the millstone around successive Tory leaders necks.

The Speccie doesn't do enough on recognizing the Tories' equivalent of the human condition, and how well Cameron has done in dealing with it.

For the sake of balance, I'd refer to Matt's column today.

justathought

@Charles

To justify a one percent interest rate hike on the basis of toothpaste or a loaf going up 30p is disproportionate and the idea that the banks will pause for even one millisecond before passing this on is highly unlikely. As for moral persuasion lets see how that works with the announcement of bonuses in the coming weeks.

I am full square behind addressing the structural deficit. The taxpayer is paying (being crucified) £165bn in welfare while only collecting tax revenues of £145bn. If inflation erodes the welfare budget and interest on borrowings mortgages etc so be it.

The recovery is at best anemic and its far to early in the cycle to even contemplate a rise. I would think we would be lucky to even avoid a further bailout/ QE .

So far the banks have not restructured their £billions of toxic commercial debts from the good debts and the past stress tests were simply a joke in bad taste to be soon followed by another farcical set of tests. Qudos to Ireland for separating the good/bad banks debts but I imagine the situation in the UK is far worse and for that reason it is politically impossible to face the reality.

justathought

@Charles

Regarding Japan the problem for them was not personal debt but deflation brought about from people saving too much, the highest rate of saving in the world. Quite the opposite to the UK personal and corporate debt situation.

While some prices of items have risen in the basket of CPI the consumer has definitely cut back spending overall and many retailers are responding by reducing prices. My concern is that after paying off £47.4 billion mortgage loans that this will be habit forming as the middle classes remain anxious of their future and that of their children. That was the precursor that created the savings culture in Japan. Falling prices there are more popular with the aging population but destructive to the Japanese economy.

yank

6) Ed’s latest weapon is branding: not New Labour but Fluffy Labour. He offers, of course, “a broad, open, progressive majority built on a coalition of values.” Sometimes it's a “broad movement of the mainstream”. What else? To Labour, it’s the party led by Red Ed that wants to tougher on nasty capitalists. To Lib Dems, it’s led by a proud “progressive”. To ex-Tories (and let’s remember about 10 percent of Oldham Tories defected to Labour at the last election), it’s a small-c conservative party led by a nice, middle-class guy concerned about preserving high streets. In other words, Fuzzy Labour is all things to all people.

.

What's amusing is that the Spectator is blind to the fact that its pets, Dave and the wets, are mirror image of this description. Just swap around a few names above. Outside the bubble, people see this quite clearly, independent of the bubble denizens' analysis, as polling data seems to show.

Never fear, the Spectator isn't developing a "soft spot" for the other soccer club, and is still loyal to its own club. The crest is the thing, you know. Nothing else matters... certainly not policy. Least of all conservative policy.

If you're attempting to be all things to all people, as your body politic's soccer teams are choosing en masse, don't be surprised when the game is jounced by fluky goals, like in about 6-8 months or so.

Still some fermentation time required here, I should think. VAT, induced inflation, the Eurocracy, greenie taxes and fees, stagnant growth... the yeast and mash are all in the vat now.

inigo jones

A fairly basic question of economics which I have often pondered but never solved : Why are commodity price rises always equated with inflation? If the amount of money in the economy is kept stable [which, of course, it seldom is] rising prices just mean fewer goods being bought ~ quite possibly a self~correcting mechanism. I would be glad if one of the Economists present could elucidate on this.

Naomi Muse

Don't think so.

However, did you hear Betty Boothroyd lambasting the proposals for reforming the Lords on World at One? She should be appointed to define what needs to be done and to set it in train.

Also that she thought the Speaker disrespects his job or he would wear his uniform.

And that there were MPs who abused the system, and that is disgraceful.

She's totally right and we should get behind her to sort things out. A great woman with practical political ideas to ensure that the Parliament we should all love we can also be proud of.

A lesson to all politicians.

Jonathan explains it all

Actually it was John Wayne who described his acting method as, "Don't just say something, stand there."

TGF UKIP

"I have been impressed by Nick Clegg since he entered government". Coffee Housers who have been scratching their heads at the nauseatingly repetitious brown nosing of Clegg need scratch no longer.

It was recently revealed (Private Eye as I recall) that the editor of the Spectator, along with with his minion Matthew Parris, had been weekend guests of Clegg at his government country retreat, Chevening. The Viking Queen no doubt being suitably impressed by English country house living and desirous of a repeat visit clearly gave Fraser his orders.

As for the Swivel Eyed doing OK, well why wouldn't he when of the three pc, green, banker-bashing, metropolitan social democrats, he simply seems the most authentic.

Publius

@Tiberius

I disagree with you about the quality of "Matt's" column of today(presumably Matthew D'Ancona in today's Telegraph).

Quite apart from other considerations, he surely stretches credibility when he tells us that part of the Coalition grand plan is for the Tories and the LDs to begin to split and highlight their differences just prior to a planned 2015 election.

When, I wonder, was the last time that it was thought good policy to squabble internally, and indeed deliberately to *appear* to squabble internally, just before going to the country?

tb

The biggest problem with Ed Milliband is he's got Len McCluskey & Bob Crows hand up his neither regions all set to start driving the lips if he even glimpses real power.

That's the problem when your in debt.

Tiberius

Publius: yes, I am referring to Matthew d'Ancona's column.

I believe one of our resident Three penned a blog last week, essentially saying the same thing about the LibDems strategy, which consists of the three tranches through this Parliament. Given their state, it seems reasonable to me. I don't see why the final third has to be a squabble - why not a decoupling as the election campaign approaches.

But my mentioning the column was, in fact, to refer to the self-indulgence of the Mainstream (Tim M's term) that Matt portrays so well. Such prolonged self-immolation contrasts with Labour, and can do the Tories no good in trying to win a majority of their own in 2015.

Dimoto

Yes, the coalition has made Labour the only party of opposition, and therefore of protest votes.
As each drop of nasty medicine comes down the drip, more effected people will register their protest.

This has nothing to do with Red being cunning, and not much to do with Labour at all.

The next election will be decided on the success, or not, of coalition policies, and whether Cameron/Osborne have the gumption to force through some tax cuts to encourage a hard pressed population.

Is Fraser bottling it ?

Ruby Duck

Anyone interested in organising a march demanding 10% cuts in public sector wages ?

alastair harris

his only positive action is to try and rewrite the history of labour's economic mismanagement. Otherwise his plan seems to be to keep very very quiet. The poll ratings will follow the media curve of "the cuts". All Cameron has to do is to pray for no more shocks. I reckon that if he is able to be seen to have taken on the NHS and wellfare dependency, as well as the unions, he will have out thatchered Margaret.

Anna

@ Phil:

Fie! 'Twas not Napoleon but our own dear Admiral Nelson who said: "Gentlemen, when the enemy is committed to a mistake we must not interrupt him too soon."

Sir Everard Digby

Lest we be seduced into talking 'bubblespeak' -the political classes live in their own incestuous,introvert world. I would have no problem with that if their musings were not imposed on the rest of us who live in a somewhat different reality. I am not surprised that the likes of Fraser have been seduced into the bubble as they rely upon it for a living. However the rest of us should not be drawn into it.
Why? The political classes:
Hailed Blair as a great leader
Defended Brown when he was obviously not up to the job.
Expressed great sorrow when Milliwit(D) retired to the back benches and hailed his fine career (Sir E is still figuring out what that was exactly)
Hailed the end of boom and bust
Scoffed at suggestion that 24 hour drinking
would create any law and order issues -in fact claimed that middle class wine drinkers were more of an issue in their own home.
Purchased voters with various benefit schemes

Don't respond with any logic to this collection of idiots. They will not listen or act in a responsible manner. Our best hope is to ignore them. The love attention and our indifference would drive them mad(der)

jose garcia

labour is up simply because it is aganist cuts, there are milions on the public sector and all of them labour voters, the ones who voted liberal are back to labour, this is a left wing country, the conservatives are finished, and the liberals probably too, it really is that simple